Trends in the prevalence and pharmacological management of migraine during pregnancy in the UK, 2000-2018.

BACKGROUND: Migraine is common in women of reproductive age. This study aimed to (1) describe the prevalence of migraine in pregnant women in the UK, (2) identify drugs commonly prescribed for migraine during pregnancy and (3) identify characteristics associated with being prescribed medication for migraine during pregnancy. METHODS: The Clinical Practice Research Datalink pregnancy register, a database of pregnancy episodes identified in anonymised primary care health records, was used.Crude and age-standardised prevalence of migraine during pregnancy and the proportion of women with migraine prescribed drugs used for migraine management were calculated for each year between 2000 and 2018.Logistic regression was used to describe the relationship between patient characteristics and being prescribed migraine medication during pregnancy. RESULTS: 1 377 053 pregnancies were included, of which 187 328 were in women with a history of migraine. The age-adjusted prevalence increased from 11.4% in 2000 to 17.2% in 2018. There was an increase in the rates of prescription for numerous medications for the management of migraine.Older women (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.41 (1.20 to 1.66)), women of black (aOR 1.40 (1.32 to 1.48)) and South Asian ethnicity (aOR 1.48 (1.38 to 1.59)), those living in the most deprived areas (aOR 1.60 (1.54 to 1.66)), women who were obese (aOR 1.39 (1.35 to 1.43)), smokers (aOR 1.15 (1.12 to 1.18)) and those with comorbid conditions were more likely to receive a prescription during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of recorded migraine have increased over the past two decades as well as rates of prescribing in women with migraine. Higher prescribing rates are seen in certain groups, which has the potential to exacerbate health inequalities.

Autoimmune diseases and adverse pregnancy outcomes: an umbrella review.

BACKGROUND: There is a high prevalence of autoimmune conditions in women specially in the reproductive years; thus, the association with adverse pregnancy outcomes has been widely studied. However, few autoimmune conditions/adverse outcomes have been studied more than others, and this umbrella review aims to consolidate existing knowledge in this area with the aim to provide new knowledge and also identify gaps in this research area. METHODS: Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched from inception to December 2023. Screening, data extraction, and quality appraisal (AMSTAR 2) were done by two independent reviewers. Data were synthesised narratively and quantitatively. Relative risks (RR)/odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals were reported. RESULTS: Thirty-two reviews were included consisting of 709 primary studies. The review reported the association between 12 autoimmune conditions and 16 adverse pregnancy outcomes. Higher risk of miscarriage is reported in women with Sjögren's syndrome RR 8.85 (95% CI 3.10-25.26) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) OR 4.90 (3.10-7.69). Pre-eclampsia was reported higher in women with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) OR 4.19 (3.08-5.71) and SLE OR 3.20 (2.54-4.20). Women reported higher risk of diabetes during pregnancy with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) OR 2.96 (1.47-5.98). There was an increased risk of intrauterine growth restriction in women with systemic sclerosis OR 3.20 (2.21-4.53) and coeliac disease OR 1.71 (1.36-2.14). Preterm birth was associated with T1DM OR 4.36 (3.72-5.12) and SLE OR 2.79 (2.07-3.77). Low birth weight babies were reported in women with women with SLE or systemic sclerosis OR 5.95 (4.54-7.80) and OR 3.80 (2.16-6.56), respectively. There was a higher risk of stillbirth in women with T1DM OR 3.97 (3.44-4.58), IBD OR 1.57 (1.03-2.38), and coeliac disease OR 1.57 (1.17-2.10). T1DM in women was associated with 32% lower odds of small for gestational age baby OR 0.68 (0.56-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: Pregnant women with autoimmune conditions are at a greater risk of developing adverse pregnancy outcomes. Further research is required to develop better preconception to postnatal care for women with autoimmune conditions.

Association between pregnancy-related complications and development of type 2 diabetes and hypertension in women: an umbrella review.

BACKGROUND: Despite many systematic reviews and meta-analyses examining the associations of pregnancy complications with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and hypertension, previous umbrella reviews have only examined a single pregnancy complication. Here we have synthesised evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses on the associations of a wide range of pregnancy-related complications with risk of developing T2DM and hypertension. METHODS: Medline, Embase and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched from inception until 26 September 2022 for systematic reviews and meta-analysis examining the association between pregnancy complications and risk of T2DM and hypertension. Screening of articles, data extraction and quality appraisal (AMSTAR2) were conducted independently by two reviewers using Covidence software. Data were extracted for studies that examined the risk of T2DM and hypertension in pregnant women with the pregnancy complication compared to pregnant women without the pregnancy complication. Summary estimates of each review were presented using tables, forest plots and narrative synthesis and reported following Preferred Reporting Items for Overviews of Reviews (PRIOR) guidelines. RESULTS: Ten systematic reviews were included. Two pregnancy complications were identified. Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM): One review showed GDM was associated with a 10-fold higher risk of T2DM at least 1 year after pregnancy (relative risk (RR) 9.51 (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.14 to 12.67) and although the association differed by ethnicity (white: RR 16.28 (95% CI 15.01 to 17.66), non-white: RR 10.38 (95% CI 4.61 to 23.39), mixed: RR 8.31 (95% CI 5.44 to 12.69)), the between subgroups difference were not statistically significant at 5% significance level. Another review showed GDM was associated with higher mean blood pressure at least 3 months postpartum (mean difference in systolic blood pressure: 2.57 (95% CI 1.74 to 3.40) mmHg and mean difference in diastolic blood pressure: 1.89 (95% CI 1.32 to 2.46) mmHg). Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP): Three reviews showed women with a history of HDP were 3 to 6 times more likely to develop hypertension at least 6 weeks after pregnancy compared to women without HDP (meta-analysis with largest number of studies: odds ratio (OR) 4.33 (3.51 to 5.33)) and one review reported a higher rate of T2DM after HDP (hazard ratio (HR) 2.24 (1.95 to 2.58)) at least a year after pregnancy. One of the three reviews and five other reviews reported women with a history of preeclampsia were 3 to 7 times more likely to develop hypertension at least 6 weeks postpartum (meta-analysis with the largest number of studies: OR 3.90 (3.16 to 4.82) with one of these reviews reporting the association was greatest in women from Asia (Asia: OR 7.54 (95% CI 2.49 to 22.81), Europe: OR 2.19 (95% CI 0.30 to 16.02), North and South America: OR 3.32 (95% CI 1.26 to 8.74)). CONCLUSIONS: GDM and HDP are associated with a greater risk of developing T2DM and hypertension. Common confounders adjusted for across the included studies in the reviews were maternal age, body mass index (BMI), socioeconomic status, smoking status, pre-pregnancy and current BMI, parity, family history of T2DM or cardiovascular disease, ethnicity, and time of delivery. Further research is needed to evaluate the value of embedding these pregnancy complications as part of assessment for future risk of T2DM and chronic hypertension.

Perceptions on artificial intelligence-based decision-making for coexisting multiple long-term health conditions: protocol for a qualitative study with patients and healthcare professionals.

INTRODUCTION: Coexisting multiple health conditions is common among older people, a population that is increasing globally. The potential for polypharmacy, adverse events, drug interactions and development of additional health conditions complicates prescribing decisions for these patients. Artificial intelligence (AI)-generated decision-making tools may help guide clinical decisions in the context of multiple health conditions, by determining which of the multiple medication options is best. This study aims to explore the perceptions of healthcare professionals (HCPs) and patients on the use of AI in the management of multiple health conditions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A qualitative study will be conducted using semistructured interviews. Adults (≥18 years) with multiple health conditions living in the West Midlands of England and HCPs with experience in caring for patients with multiple health conditions will be eligible and purposively sampled. Patients will be identified from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum; CPRD will contact general practitioners who will in turn, send a letter to patients inviting them to take part. Eligible HCPs will be recruited through British HCP bodies and known contacts. Up to 30 patients and 30 HCPs will be recruited, until data saturation is achieved. Interviews will be in-person or virtual, audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. The topic guide is designed to explore participants' attitudes towards AI-informed clinical decision-making to augment clinician-directed decision-making, the perceived advantages and disadvantages of both methods and attitudes towards risk management. Case vignettes comprising a common decision pathway for patients with multiple health conditions will be presented during each interview to invite participants' opinions on how their experiences compare. Data will be analysed thematically using the Framework Method. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (Reference: 22/SC/0210). Written informed consent or verbal consent will be obtained prior to each interview. The findings from this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conferences and lay summaries.

How migraine and its associated treatment impact on pregnancy outcomes: Umbrella review with updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Migraine is common in reproductive aged women. Understanding the impact of migraine and associated treatments on pregnancy outcomes remains very important. An umbrella review of systematic reviews, with or without meta-analyses, examined the link between migraine and pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: We systematically searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane to 27 October 2022. Quality appraisal was carried out using the AMSTAR2 tool. An established framework was used to determine whether included reviews were eligible for update. RESULTS: Four studies met review criteria. Migraine was reported to be associated with increased odds ratio (OR) of pre-eclampsia, low birth weight and peripartum mental illness (pooled OR = 3.54 (2.24-5.59)). Triptan-exposed women had increased odds of miscarriage compared to women without migraine (pooled OR = 3.54 (2.24-5.59)). In updated meta-analyses, migraine was associated with an increased odds of pre-eclampsia and preterm birth (pooled OR = 2.05 (1.47-2.84) and 1.26 (1.21-1.32) respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Migraine is associated with increased odds of pre-eclampsia, peripartum mental illness and preterm birth. Further investigation of the relationship between migraine and placental abruption, low birth weight and small for gestational age is warranted, as well as the relationship between migraine, triptans and miscarriage risk.Systematic Review Registration: Prospero CRD42022357630.

Socioeconomic Deprivation and the Risk of Sight-Threatening Diabetic Retinopathy: A Population-Based Cohort Study in the U.K.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations between socioeconomic deprivation and sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) in individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data from 175,628 individuals with diabetes in the Health Improvement Network were used to assess the risk of STDR across Townsend Deprivation Index quantiles using Cox proportional hazard regression. RESULTS: Among individuals with T1D, the risk of STDR was three times higher (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.67, 95% CI 1.05-7.78) in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived quintile. In T2D, the most deprived quintile had a 28% higher risk (aHR 1.28; 95% CI 1.15-1.43) than the least deprived quintile. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing socioeconomic deprivation is associated with a higher risk of developing STDR in people with diabetes. This underscores persistent health disparities linked to poverty, even within a country offering free universal health care. Further research is needed to address health equity concerns in socioeconomically deprived regions.

Inequalities in the management of diabetic kidney disease in UK primary care: A cross-sectional analysis of a large primary care database.

AIMS: To determine differences in the management of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) relevant to patient sex, ethnicity and socio-economic group in UK primary care. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis as of January 1, 2019 was undertaken using the IQVIA Medical Research Data dataset, to determine the proportion of people with DKD managed in accordance with national guidelines, stratified by demographics. Robust Poisson regression models were used to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity and social deprivation. RESULTS: Of the 2.3 million participants, 161,278 had type 1 or 2 diabetes, of which 32,905 had DKD. Of people with DKD, 60% had albumin creatinine ratio (ACR) measured, 64% achieved blood pressure (BP, <140/90 mmHg) target, 58% achieved glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c, <58 mmol/mol) target, 68% prescribed renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitor in the previous year. Compared to men, women were less likely to have creatinine: aRR 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-0.99), ACR: aRR 0.94 (0.92-0.96), BP: aRR 0.98 (0.97-0.99), HbA1c : aRR 0.99 (0.98-0.99) and serum cholesterol: aRR 0.97 (0.96-0.98) measured; achieve BP: aRR 0.95 (0.94-0.98) or total cholesterol (<5 mmol/L) targets: aRR 0.86 (0.84-0.87); or be prescribed RAAS inhibitors: aRR 0.92 (0.90-0.94) or statins: aRR 0.94 (0.92-0.95). Compared to the least deprived areas, people from the most deprived areas were less likely to have BP measurements: aRR 0.98 (0.96-0.99); achieve BP: aRR 0.91 (0.8-0.95) or HbA1c : aRR 0.88 (0.85-0.92) targets, or be prescribed RAAS inhibitors: aRR 0.91 (0.87-0.95). Compared to people of white ethnicity; those of black ethnicity were less likely to be prescribed statins aRR 0.91 (0.85-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: There are unmet needs and inequalities in the management of DKD in the UK. Addressing these could reduce the increasing human and societal cost of managing DKD.

Sociodemographic characteristics and longitudinal progression of multimorbidity: A multistate modelling analysis of a large primary care records dataset in England.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, characterised by the coexistence of multiple chronic conditions in an individual, is a rising public health concern. While much of the existing research has focused on cross-sectional patterns of multimorbidity, there remains a need to better understand the longitudinal accumulation of diseases. This includes examining the associations between important sociodemographic characteristics and the rate of progression of chronic conditions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We utilised electronic primary care records from 13.48 million participants in England, drawn from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD Aurum), spanning from 2005 to 2020 with a median follow-up of 4.71 years (IQR: 1.78, 11.28). The study focused on 5 important chronic conditions: cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), chronic kidney disease (CKD), heart failure (HF), and mental health (MH) conditions. Key sociodemographic characteristics considered include ethnicity, social and material deprivation, gender, and age. We employed a flexible spline-based parametric multistate model to investigate the associations between these sociodemographic characteristics and the rate of different disease transitions throughout multimorbidity development. Our findings reveal distinct association patterns across different disease transition types. Deprivation, gender, and age generally demonstrated stronger associations with disease diagnosis compared to ethnic group differences. Notably, the impact of these factors tended to attenuate with an increase in the number of preexisting conditions, especially for deprivation, gender, and age. For example, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI; p-value) for the association of deprivation with T2D diagnosis (comparing the most deprived quintile to the least deprived) is 1.76 ([1.74, 1.78]; p < 0.001) for those with no preexisting conditions and decreases to 0.95 ([0.75, 1.21]; p = 0.69) with 4 preexisting conditions. Furthermore, the impact of deprivation, gender, and age was typically more pronounced when transitioning from an MH condition. For instance, the HR (95% CI; p-value) for the association of deprivation with T2D diagnosis when transitioning from MH is 2.03 ([1.95, 2.12], p < 0.001), compared to transitions from CVD 1.50 ([1.43, 1.58], p < 0.001), CKD 1.37 ([1.30, 1.44], p < 0.001), and HF 1.55 ([1.34, 1.79], p < 0.001). A primary limitation of our study is that potential diagnostic inaccuracies in primary care records, such as underdiagnosis, overdiagnosis, or ascertainment bias of chronic conditions, could influence our results. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that early phases of multimorbidity development could warrant increased attention. The potential importance of earlier detection and intervention of chronic conditions is underscored, particularly for MH conditions and higher-risk populations. These insights may have important implications for the management of multimorbidity.

Autoimmune diseases and adverse pregnancy outcomes: an umbrella review.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of autoimmune conditions is two-fold higher in women than in men, especially during the reproductive years. Autoimmune conditions have been associated with a greater risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, and some conditions have been studied more than others with inconsistent findings. The objective of this umbrella review was to identify, appraise, synthesise, and consolidate findings from published systematic reviews of autoimmune conditions and adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: In this umbrella review, we searched Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases for systematic reviews from inception to Sept 30, 2022, without language restrictions. We used the Medical Subject Headings and free text search for autoimmune conditions and pregnancy outcomes. Screening, data extraction, and quality appraisal (AMSTAR 2) were done by two independent reviewers. Data was extracted using a standardised form, which was piloted before use. Data were synthesised narratively and quantitatively. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs were reported. The protocol has been registered to PROSPERO (CRD42022334992). FINDINGS: We selected 33 reviews, which included 709 primary studies. Pregnant women with autoimmune conditions were at high risk of both adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. The risk of miscarriage was increased in pregnant women with Sjögren's syndrome (relative risk [RR] 8·85, 95% CI 3·10-25·26), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE; OR 4·90, 95% CI 3·10-7·69), thyroid autoimmunity (OR 2·77, 2·10-3·65), systemic sclerosis (OR 1·60, 1·29-2·22), and coeliac disease (OR 1·38, 1·12-1·69). The risk of pre-eclampsia was increased in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes (T1DM; OR 4·19, 3·08-5·71) and SLE (OR 3·20, 2·54 - 4·20). The risk of gestational diabetes was increased in pregnant women with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD; OR 2·96, 1·47-5·98) and thyroid autoimmunity (OR 1·49, 1·07-2·07). The risk of intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) was increased in pregnant women with systemic sclerosis (OR 3·20, 2·21-4·53) and coeliac disease (OR 1·71, 1·36-2·14). The risk of delivering a small-for-gestational age baby was increased in pregnant women with SLE (OR 2·49, 1·88-3·31) and rheumatoid arthritis (OR 1·49, 1·22-1·82). The risks of other fetal outcomes such as stillbirth, preterm birth, and low birthweight were also increased in pregnant women with autoimmune disorders. T1DM in women was associated with lower odds of small-for-gestational-age outcome (OR 0·68, 0·56-0·83). INTERPRETATION: Pregnant women with autoimmune conditions are at greater risk of developing adverse pregnancy outcomes. Further research is required to develop better preconception to post-natal care for women with autoimmune conditions. FUNDING: Medical Research Council (MRC) and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).

Prevalence and demographic variation of cardiovascular, renal, metabolic, and mental health conditions in 12 million english primary care records.

BACKGROUND: Primary care electronic health records (EHR) are widely used to study long-term conditions in epidemiological and health services research. Therefore, it is important to understand how well the recorded prevalence of these conditions in EHRs, compares to other reliable sources overall, and varies by socio-demographic characteristics. We aimed to describe the prevalence and socio-demographic variation of cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic (CRM) and mental health (MH) conditions in a large, nationally representative, English primary care database and compare with prevalence estimates from other population-based studies. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum primary care database. We calculated prevalence of 18 conditions and used logistic regression to assess how this varied by age, sex, ethnicity, and socio-economic status. We searched the literature for population prevalence estimates from other sources for comparison with the prevalences in CPRD Aurum. RESULTS: Depression (16.0%, 95%CI 16.0-16.0%) and hypertension (15.3%, 95%CI 15.2-15.3%) were the most prevalent conditions among 12.4 million patients. Prevalence of most conditions increased with socio-economic deprivation and age. CRM conditions, schizophrenia and substance misuse were higher in men, whilst anxiety, depression, bipolar and eating disorders were more common in women. Cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension and diabetes) were more prevalent in black and Asian patients compared with white, but the trends in prevalence of cardiovascular diseases by ethnicity were more variable. The recorded prevalences of mental health conditions were typically twice as high in white patients compared with other ethnic groups. However, PTSD and schizophrenia were more prevalent in black patients. The prevalence of most conditions was similar or higher in the primary care database than diagnosed disease prevalence reported in national health surveys. However, screening studies typically reported higher prevalence estimates than primary care data, especially for PTSD, bipolar disorder and eating disorders. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of many clinically diagnosed conditions in primary care records closely matched that of other sources. However, we found important variations by sex and ethnicity, which may reflect true variation in prevalence or systematic differences in clinical presentation and practice. Primary care data may underrepresent the prevalence of undiagnosed conditions, particularly in mental health.

Associations of antidiabetic drugs with diabetic retinopathy in people with type 2 diabetes: an umbrella review and meta-analysis.

Background: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the most frequent complication of type 2 diabetes and remains the leading cause of preventable blindness. Current clinical decisions regarding the administration of antidiabetic drugs do not sufficiently incorporate the risk of DR due to the inconclusive evidence from preceding meta-analyses. This umbrella review aimed to systematically evaluate the effects of antidiabetic drugs on DR in people with type 2 diabetes. Methods: A systematic literature search was undertaken in Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library (from inception till 17th May 2022) without language restrictions to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials or longitudinal studies that examined the association between antidiabetic drugs and DR in people with type 2 diabetes. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed the quality of included studies using the AMSTAR-2 (A MeaSurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews) checklist, and evidence assessment was performed using the GRADE (Grading of recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation). Random-effects models were applied to calculate relative risk (RR) or odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022332052). Results: With trial evidence from 11 systematic reviews and meta-analyses, we found that the use of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA), sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i), or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) was not statistically associated with the risk of DR, compared to either placebo (RR: GLP-1 RA, 0.98, 0.89-1.08; SGLT-2i, 1.00, 95% CI 0.79-1.27; DPP-4i, 1.17, 0.99-1.39) or other antidiabetic drugs. Compared to other antidiabetic drugs, meglitinides (0.34, 0.01-8.25), SGLT-2i (0.73, 0.10-5.16), thiazolidinediones (0.92, 0.67-1.26), metformin (1.15, 0.81-1.63), sulphonylureas (1.24, 0.93-1.65), and acarbose (4.21, 0.44-40.43) were not statistically associated with the risk of DR. With evidence from longitudinal studies only, insulin was found to have a higher risk of DR than other antidiabetic drugs (OR: 2.47, 95% CI: 2.04-2.99). Conclusion: Our results indicate that antidiabetic drugs are generally safe to prescribe regarding the risk of DR among people with type 2 diabetes. Further robust and large-scale trials investigating the effects of insulin, meglitinides, and acarbose on DR are warranted. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=332052, identifier CRD42022332052.

Protocol for development and validation of postpartum cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction model incorporating reproductive and pregnancy-related candidate predictors.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death among women. CVD is associated with reduced quality of life, significant treatment and management costs, and lost productivity. Estimating the risk of CVD would help patients at a higher risk of CVD to initiate preventive measures to reduce risk of disease. The Framingham risk score and the QRISK® score are two risk prediction models used to evaluate future CVD risk in the UK. Although the algorithms perform well in the general population, they do not take into account pregnancy complications, which are well known risk factors for CVD in women and have been highlighted in a recent umbrella review. We plan to develop a robust CVD risk prediction model to assess the additional value of pregnancy risk factors in risk prediction of CVD in women postpartum. METHODS: Using candidate predictors from QRISK®-3, the umbrella review identified from literature and from discussions with clinical experts and patient research partners, we will use time-to-event Cox proportional hazards models to develop and validate a 10-year risk prediction model for CVD postpartum using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care database for development and internal validation of the algorithm and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank for external validation. We will then assess the value of additional candidate predictors to the QRISK®-3 in our internal and external validations. DISCUSSION: The developed risk prediction model will incorporate pregnancy-related factors which have been shown to be associated with future risk of CVD but have not been taken into account in current risk prediction models. Our study will therefore highlight the importance of incorporating pregnancy-related risk factors into risk prediction modeling for CVD postpartum.

Association of pregnancy complications/risk factors with the development of future long-term health conditions in women: overarching protocol for umbrella reviews.

INTRODUCTION: With good medical care, most pregnancy complications like pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, etc resolve after childbirth. However, pregnancy complications are known to be associated with an increased risk of new long-term health conditions for women later in life, such as cardiovascular disease. These umbrella reviews aim to summarise systematic reviews evaluating the association between pregnancy complications and five groups of long-term health conditions: autoimmune conditions, cancers, functional disorders, mental health conditions and metabolic health conditions (diabetes and hypertension). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct searches in Medline, Embase and the Cochrane database of systematic reviews without any language restrictions. We will include systematic reviews with or without meta-analyses that studied the association between pregnancy complications and the future risk of the five groups of long-term health conditions in women. Pregnancy complications were identified from existing core outcome sets for pregnancy and after consultation with experts. Two reviewers will independently screen the articles. Data will be synthesised with both narrative and quantitative methods. Where a meta-analysis has been carried out, we will report the combined effect size from individual studies. For binary data, pooled ORs with 95% CIs will be presented. For continuous data, we will use the mean difference with 95% CIs. The findings will be presented in forest plots to assess heterogeneity. The methodological quality of the studies will be evaluated with the AMSTAR 2 tool or the Cochrane risk of bias tool. The corrected covered area method will be used to assess the impact of overlap in reviews. The findings will be used to inform the design of prediction models, which will predict the risk of women developing these five group of health conditions following a pregnancy complication. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approvals required. Findings will be disseminated through publications in peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations.

In simulated data and health records, latent class analysis was the optimum multimorbidity clustering algorithm.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To investigate the reproducibility and validity of latent class analysis (LCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), multiple correspondence analysis followed by k-means (MCA-kmeans) and k-means (kmeans) for multimorbidity clustering. METHODS: We first investigated clustering algorithms in simulated datasets with 26 diseases of varying prevalence in predetermined clusters, comparing the derived clusters to known clusters using the adjusted Rand Index (aRI). We then them investigated the medical records of male patients, aged 65 to 84 years from 50 UK general practices, with 49 long-term health conditions. We compared within cluster morbidity profiles using the Pearson correlation coefficient and assessed cluster stability using in 400 bootstrap samples. RESULTS: In the simulated datasets, the closest agreement (largest aRI) to known clusters was with LCA and then MCA-kmeans algorithms. In the medical records dataset, all four algorithms identified one cluster of 20-25% of the dataset with about 82% of the same patients across all four algorithms. LCA and MCA-kmeans both found a second cluster of 7% of the dataset. Other clusters were found by only one algorithm. LCA and MCA-kmeans clustering gave the most similar partitioning (aRI 0.54). CONCLUSION: LCA achieved higher aRI than other clustering algorithms.

Diabetic Foot Risk Classification at the Time of Type 2 Diabetes Diagnosis and Subsequent Risk of Mortality: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Aim: We aimed to compare the mortality of individuals at low, moderate, and high risk of diabetic foot disease (DFD) in the context of newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes, before developing active diabetic foot problem. Methods: This was a population-based cohort study of adults with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes utilizing IQVIA Medical Research Data. The outcome was all-cause mortality among individuals with low, moderate, and high risk of DFD, and also in those with no record of foot assessment and those who declined foot examination. Results: Of 225,787 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes, 34,061 (15.1%) died during the study period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2019. Moderate risk and high risk of DFD were associated with increased mortality risk compared to low risk of DFD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.50, 95% CI 1.42, 1.58; aHR 2.01, 95% CI 1.84, 2.20, respectively). Individuals who declined foot examination or who had no record also had increased mortality risk of 75% and 25% vs. those at low risk of DFD, respectively (aHR 1.75, 95% CI 1.51, 2.04; aHR 1.25, 95% CI 1.20, 1.30). Conclusion: Individuals with new-onset type 2 diabetes who had moderate to high risk of DFD were more likely to die compared to those at low risk of DFD. The associations between declined foot examination and absence of foot examinations, and increased risk of mortality further highlight the importance of assessing foot risk as it identifies not only patients at risk of diabetic foot ulceration but also mortality.

Epidemiology of pre-existing multimorbidity in pregnant women in the UK in 2018: a population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Although maternal death is rare in the United Kingdom, 90% of these women had multiple health/social problems. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity (two or more long-term physical or mental health conditions) in pregnant women in the United Kingdom (England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland). STUDY DESIGN: Pregnant women aged 15-49 years with a conception date 1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018 were included in this population-based cross-sectional study, using routine healthcare datasets from primary care: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD, United Kingdom, n = 37,641) and Secure Anonymized Information Linkage databank (SAIL, Wales, n = 27,782), and secondary care: Scottish Morbidity Records with linked community prescribing data (SMR, Tayside and Fife, n = 6099). Pre-existing multimorbidity preconception was defined from 79 long-term health conditions prioritised through a workshop with patient representatives and clinicians. RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 44.2% (95% CI 43.7-44.7%), 46.2% (45.6-46.8%) and 19.8% (18.8-20.8%) in CPRD, SAIL and SMR respectively. When limited to health conditions that were active in the year before pregnancy, the prevalence of multimorbidity was still high (24.2% [23.8-24.6%], 23.5% [23.0-24.0%] and 17.0% [16.0 to 17.9%] in the respective datasets). Mental health conditions were highly prevalent and involved 70% of multimorbidity CPRD: multimorbidity with ≥one mental health condition/s 31.3% [30.8-31.8%]). After adjusting for age, ethnicity, gravidity, index of multiple deprivation, body mass index and smoking, logistic regression showed that pregnant women with multimorbidity were more likely to be older (CPRD England, adjusted OR 1.81 [95% CI 1.04-3.17] 45-49 years vs 15-19 years), multigravid (1.68 [1.50-1.89] gravidity ≥ five vs one), have raised body mass index (1.59 [1.44-1.76], body mass index 30+ vs body mass index 18.5-24.9) and smoked preconception (1.61 [1.46-1.77) vs non-smoker). CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity is prevalent in pregnant women in the United Kingdom, they are more likely to be older, multigravid, have raised body mass index and smoked preconception. Secondary care and community prescribing dataset may only capture the severe spectrum of health conditions. Research is needed urgently to quantify the consequences of maternal multimorbidity for both mothers and children.

Sex-specific temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular disease in young adults: a population-based study using UK primary care data.

AIMS: There is concern that cardiovascular disease (CVD) in young adults is rising. However, current trends in the UK are unknown. We investigated sex-specific trends in the incidence and prevalence of CVD in young UK adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: A series of annual (1998-2017) cohort and cross-sectional studies were conducted to estimate incidence rates and prevalence in men and women aged 16-50. Joinpoint regression models were fitted to evaluate changes in trends. From 1998 to 2017, incidence and prevalence had an overall downward trend for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and angina, while coronary revascularization, stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA), and heart failure (HF) had an upward trend in both sexes. Myocardial infarction (MI) trends were stable in men and increased in women. For incidence, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for men vs. women, respectively, was IHD -2.6% vs. -3.4%; angina -7.0% vs. -7.3%; MI 0.01% vs. 2.3%; revascularization 1.1% vs. 3.9%; stroke/TIA 1.9% vs. 0.6%; HF 5.6% vs. 5.0% (P for trend <0.05 for all except MI and revascularization in men and stroke/TIA in women). For prevalence, AAPCs for men vs. women, respectively, were IHD -2.8% vs. -4.9%; angina -7.2% vs. -7.8%; MI -0.2% vs. 2.0; revascularization 3.2% vs. 4.1%; stroke/TIA 3.1% vs. 3.6%; HF 5.0% vs. 3.0% (P for trend <0.05 for all except MI in men). In recent years, IHD and revascularization trends levelled off, while stroke/TIA and HF trends increased in both sexes. CONCLUSION: Overall trends in incidence and prevalence of CVD are worsening in young adults. Factors behind unfavourable trends warrant investigation and public health intervention.

The effect of vitamin D supplementation and nutritional intake on skeletal maturity and bone health in socio-economically deprived children.

PURPOSE: 1. To determine the effect of vitamin D supplementation on bone age (BA), a marker of skeletal maturity, and Bone Health Index (BHI), a surrogate marker of bone density. 2. To characterise the differences in nutritional intake and anthropometry between children with advanced vs. delayed BA. METHODS: The current study is a post hoc analysis of radiographs obtained as part of a randomised controlled trial. In this double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, deprived Afghan children (n = 3046) aged 1-11 months were randomised to receive six doses of oral placebo or vitamin D3 (100,000 IU) every 3 months for 18 months. Dietary intake was assessed through semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires at two time points. Anthropometric measurements were undertaken at baseline and 18 months. Serum 25OHD was measured at five time points on a random subset of 632 children. Knee and wrist radiographs were obtained from a random subset (n = 641), of which 565 wrist radiographs were digitised for post-hoc analysis of BA and BHI using BoneXpert version 3.1. RESULTS: Nearly 93% (522, male = 291) of the images were analysable. The placebo (n = 258) and vitamin D (n = 264) groups were comparable at baseline. The mean (± SD) age of the cohort was 2 (± 0.3) years. At study completion, there was no difference in mean 25-hydroxy vitamin D concentrations [47 (95% CI 41, 56) vs. 55 (95% CI 45, 57) nmol/L, p = 0.2], mean (± SD) BA SDS [- 1.04 (1.36) vs. - 1.14 (1.26) years, p = 0.3] or mean (± SD) BHI SDS [- 0.30 (0.86) vs. - 0.31 (0.80), p = 0.8] between the placebo and vitamin D groups, respectively. Children with advanced skeletal maturity (BA SDS ≥ 0) when compared to children with delayed skeletal maturity (BA SDS < 0), had consumed more calories [mean (± SD) calories 805 (± 346) vs 723 (± 327) kcal/day, respectively, p < 0.05], were significantly less stunted (height SDS - 1.43 vs. - 2.32, p < 0.001) and underweight (weight SDS - 0.82 vs. - 1.45, p < 0.001), with greater growth velocity (11.57 vs 10.47 cm/ year, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Deprived children have significant delay in skeletal maturation but no substantial impairment in bone health as assessed by BHI. BA delay was influenced by total calorie intake, but not bolus vitamin D supplementation.

Effects on childhood infections of promoting safe and hygienic complementary-food handling practices through a community-based programme: A cluster randomised controlled trial in a rural area of The Gambia.

BACKGROUND: The Gambia has high rates of under-5 mortality from diarrhoea and pneumonia, peaking during complementary-feeding age. Community-based interventions may reduce complementary-food contamination and disease rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A public health intervention using critical control points and motivational drivers, delivered February-April 2015 in The Gambia, was evaluated in a cluster randomised controlled trial at 6- and 32-month follow-up in September-October 2015 and October-December 2017, respectively. After consent for trial participation and baseline data were collected, 30 villages (clusters) were randomly assigned to intervention or control, stratified by population size and geography. The intervention included a community-wide campaign on days 1, 2, 17, and 25, a reminder visit at 5 months, plus informal community-volunteer home visits. It promoted 5 key complementary-food and 1 key drinking-water safety and hygiene behaviours through performing arts, public meetings, and certifications delivered by a team from local health and village structures to all villagers who attended the activities, to which mothers of 6- to 24-month-old children were specifically invited. Control villages received a 1-day campaign on domestic-garden water use. The background characteristics of mother and clusters (villages) were balanced between the trial arms. Outcomes were measured at 6 and 32 months in a random sample of 21-26 mothers per cluster. There were no intervention or research team visits to villages between 6 and 32 months. The primary outcome was a composite outcome of the number of times key complementary-food behaviours were observed as a proportion of the number of opportunities to perform the behaviours during the observation period at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included the rate of each recommended behaviour; microbiological growth from complementary food and drinking water (6 months only); and reported acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea, and diarrhoea hospitalisation. Analysis was by intention-to-treat analysis adjusted by clustering. (Registration: PACTR201410000859336). We found that 394/571 (69%) of mothers with complementary-feeding children in the intervention villages were actively involved in the campaign. No villages withdrew, and there were no changes in the implementation of the intervention. The intervention improved behaviour adoption significantly. For the primary outcome, the rate was 662/4,351(incidence rate [IR] = 0.15) in control villages versus 2,861/4,378 (IR = 0.65) in intervention villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] = 4.44, 95% CI 3.62-5.44, p < 0.001), and at 32 months the aIRR was 1.17 (95% CI 1.07-1.29, p = 0.001). Secondary health outcomes also improved with the intervention: (1) mother-reported diarrhoea at 6 months, with adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 0.39 (95% CI 0.32-0.48, p < 0.001), and at 32 months, with aRR = 0.68 (95% CI 0.48-0.96, p = 0.027); (2) mother-reported diarrhoea hospitalisation at 6 months, with aRR = 0.35 (95% CI 0.19-0.66, p = 0.001), and at 32 months, with aRR = 0.38 (95% CI 0.18-0.80, p = 0.011); and (3) mother-reported acute respiratory tract infections at 6 months, with aRR = 0.67 (95% CI 0.53-0.86, p = 0.001), though at 32 months improvement was not significant (p = 0.200). No adverse events were reported. The main limitations were that only medium to small rural villages were involved. Obtaining laboratory cultures from food at 32 months was not possible, and no stool microorganisms were investigated. CONCLUSIONS: We found that low-cost and culturally embedded behaviour change interventions were acceptable to communities and led to short- and long-term improvements in complementary-food safety and hygiene practices, and reported diarrhoea and acute respiratory tract infections. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered on the 17th October 2014 with the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry in South Africa with number (PACTR201410000859336) and 32-month follow-up as an amendment to the trial.

Vitamin D for Growth and Rickets in Stunted Children: A Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Vitamin D is essential for healthy development of bones, but little is known about the effects of supplementation in young stunted children. Our objective was to assess the effect of vitamin D supplementation on risk of rickets and linear growth among Afghan children. METHODS: In this double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 3046 children ages 1 to 11 months from inner-city Kabul were randomly assigned to receive oral vitamin D3 (100 000 IU) or placebo every 3 months for 18 months. Rickets Severity Score was calculated by using wrist and knee radiographs for 631 randomly selected infants at 18 months, and rickets was defined as a score >1.5. Weight and length were measured at baseline and 18 months by using standard techniques, and z scores were calculated. RESULTS: Mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (seasonally corrected) and dietary calcium intake were insufficient at 37 (35-39) nmol/L and 372 (327-418) mg/day, respectively. Prevalence of rickets was 5.5% (placebo) and 5.3% (vitamin D): odds ratio 0.96 (95% CI: 0.48 to 1.92); P = .9. The mean difference in height-for-age z score was 0.05 (95% CI: -0.05 to 0.15), P = .3, although the effect of vitamin D was greater for those consuming >300 mg/day of dietary calcium (0.14 [95% CI: 0 to 0.29]; P = .05). There were no between-group differences in weight-for-age or weight-for-height z scores. CONCLUSIONS: Except in those with higher calcium intake, vitamin D supplementation had no effect on rickets or growth.