Impact and cost-effectiveness of the 6-month BPaLM regimen for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in Moldova: A mathematical modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests that shortened, simplified treatment regimens for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) can achieve comparable end-of-treatment (EOT) outcomes to longer regimens. We compared a 6-month regimen containing bedaquiline, pretomanid, linezolid, and moxifloxacin (BPaLM) to a standard of care strategy using a 9- or 18-month regimen depending on whether fluoroquinolone resistance (FQ-R) was detected on drug susceptibility testing (DST). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The primary objective was to determine whether 6 months of BPaLM is a cost-effective treatment strategy for RR-TB. We used genomic and demographic data to parameterize a mathematical model estimating long-term health outcomes measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime costs in 2022 USD ($) for each treatment strategy for patients 15 years and older diagnosed with pulmonary RR-TB in Moldova, a country with a high burden of TB drug resistance. For each individual, we simulated the natural history of TB and associated treatment outcomes, as well as the process of acquiring resistance to each of 12 anti-TB drugs. Compared to the standard of care, 6 months of BPaLM was cost-effective. This strategy was estimated to reduce lifetime costs by $3,366 (95% UI: [1,465, 5,742] p < 0.001) per individual, with a nonsignificant change in QALYs (-0.06; 95% UI: [-0.49, 0.032] p = 0.790). For those stopping moxifloxacin under the BPaLM regimen, continuing with BPaL plus clofazimine (BPaLC) provided more QALYs at lower cost than continuing with BPaL alone. Strategies based on 6 months of BPaLM had at least a 93% chance of being cost-effective, so long as BPaLC was continued in the event of stopping moxifloxacin. BPaLM for 6 months also reduced the average time spent with TB resistant to amikacin, bedaquiline, clofazimine, cycloserine, moxifloxacin, and pyrazinamide, while it increased the average time spent with TB resistant to delamanid and pretomanid. Sensitivity analyses showed 6 months of BPaLM to be cost-effective across a broad range of values for the relative effectiveness of BPaLM, and the proportion of the cohort with FQ-R. Compared to the standard of care, 6 months of BPaLM would be expected to save Moldova's national TB program budget $7.1 million (95% UI: [1.3 million, 15.4 million] p = 0.002) over the 5-year period from implementation. Our analysis did not account for all possible interactions between specific drugs with regard to treatment outcomes, resistance acquisition, or the consequences of specific types of severe adverse events, nor did we model how the intervention may affect TB transmission dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to standard of care, longer regimens, the implementation of the 6-month BPaLM regimen could improve the cost-effectiveness of care for individuals diagnosed with RR-TB, particularly in settings with a high burden of drug-resistant TB. Further research may be warranted to explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of shorter RR-TB regimens across settings with varied drug-resistant TB burdens and national income levels.

The recent rapid expansion of multidrug resistant Ural lineage Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Moldova.

The projected trajectory of multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) epidemics depends on the reproductive fitness of circulating strains of MDR M. tuberculosis (Mtb). Previous efforts to characterize the fitness of MDR Mtb have found that Mtb strains of the Beijing sublineage (Lineage 2.2.1) may be more prone to develop resistance and retain fitness in the presence of resistance-conferring mutations than other lineages. Using Mtb genome sequences from all culture-positive cases collected over two years in Moldova, we estimate the fitness of Ural (Lineage 4.2) and Beijing strains, the two lineages in which MDR is concentrated in the country. We estimate that the fitness of MDR Ural strains substantially exceeds that of other susceptible and MDR strains, and we identify several mutations specific to these MDR Ural strains. Our findings suggest that MDR Ural Mtb has been transmitting efficiently in Moldova and poses a substantial risk of spreading further in the region.

Identifying local foci of tuberculosis transmission in Moldova using a spatial multinomial logistic regression model.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) represents a major public health concern in the Republic of Moldova, with an estimated 31% of new and 56% of previously treated TB cases having MDR disease in 2022. A recent genomic epidemiology study of incident TB occurring in 2018 and 2019 found that 92% of MDR-TB was the result of transmission. The MDR phenotype was concentrated among two M. tuberculosis (Mtb) lineages: L2.2.1 (Beijing) and L4.2.1 (Ural). METHODS: We developed and applied a hierarchical Bayesian multinominal logistic regression model to Mtb genomic, spatial, and epidemiological data collected from all individuals with diagnosed TB in Moldova in 2018 and 2019 to identify locations in which specific Mtb strains are being transmitted. We then used a logistic regression model to estimate locality-level factors associated with local transmission. FINDINGS: We found differences in the spatial distribution and degree of local concentration of disease due to specific strains of Beijing and Ural lineage Mtb. Foci of transmission for four strains of Beijing lineage Mtb, predominantly of the MDR-TB phenotype, were located in several regions, but largely concentrated in Transnistria. In contrast, transmission of Ural lineage Mtb had less marked patterns of spatial aggregation, with a single strain (also of the MDR phenotype) spatially clustered in southern Transnistria. We found a 30% (95% credible interval 2%-80%) increase in odds of a locality being a transmission cluster for each increase of 100 persons per square kilometer, while higher local tuberculosis incidence and poverty were not associated with a locality being a transmission focus. INTERPRETATION: Our results identified localities where specific Mtb transmission networks were concentrated and quantified the association between locality-level factors and focal transmission. This analysis revealed Transnistria as the primary area where specific Mtb strains (predominantly of the MDR-TB phenotype) were locally transmitted and suggests that targeted intensified case finding in this region may be an attractive policy option. FUNDING: Funding for this work was provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the US National Institutes of Health.

Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Ukraine, 2017-2022.

In 2021, the World Health Organization recommended new extensively drug-resistant (XDR) and pre-XDR tuberculosis (TB) definitions. In a recent cohort of TB patients in Eastern Europe, we show that XDR TB as currently defined is associated with exceptionally poor treatment outcomes, considerably worse than for the former definition (31% vs. 54% treatment success).

Identification of differentially recognized T cell epitopes in the spectrum of tuberculosis infection.

There is still incomplete knowledge of which Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) antigens can trigger distinct T cell responses at different stages of infection. Here, a proteome-wide screen of 20,610 Mtb-derived peptides in 21 patients mid-treatment for active tuberculosis (ATB) reveals IFNγ-specific T cell responses against 137 unique epitopes. Of these, 16% are recognized by two or more participants and predominantly derived from cell wall and cell processes antigens. There is differential recognition of antigens, including TB vaccine candidate antigens, between ATB participants and interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA + /-) individuals. We developed an ATB-specific peptide pool (ATB116) consisting of epitopes exclusively recognized by ATB participants. This pool can distinguish patients with pulmonary ATB from IGRA + /- individuals from various geographical locations, with a sensitivity of over 60% and a specificity exceeding 80%. This proteome-wide screen of T cell reactivity identified infection stage-specific epitopes and antigens for potential use in diagnostics and measuring Mtb-specific immune responses.

Predicting stringent QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus conversions in contacts of tuberculosis patients.

OBJECTIVES: To assess associations between disease severity in index TB patients and QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT-Plus) results in contacts, and predictors for QFT-Plus conversion in contacts over 6-12 months. METHODS: TB patients (n = 295) and the contacts (n = 1051) were enrolled during 2018-2021 with QFT-Plus performed at baseline and months 6 and 12. A strong CD8 response was defined as TB2 interferon gamma (IFN-γ) response minus TB1 >0.6 IU/ml and stringent conversion as change from QFT-plus negative to high-positive QFT-Plus (TB1 or TB2 IFN-γ responses >0.7 IU/ml). RESULTS: Contacts with index TB patients with sputum smear >1+ was associated with positive QFT-Plus compared to those without (p < 0.001). Contacts with index TB patients with bilateral lung disease were more likely to have strong CD8 responses than those without (p = 0.038). QFT-Plus stringent conversion occurred in 9.7% of contacts over 6-12 months. A TB1 IFN-γ response ≥0.03 IU/ml combined with a TB2 ≥0.06 IU/ml was predictive of a 19-fold increased risk for QFT-Plus stringent conversion in contacts (odd ratio 19.565 [8.484-45.116], p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Bacterial burden and bilateral lung disease of index TB patients were associated with positive QFT-Plus and strong CD8 responses in contacts. TB1 and TB2 IFN-γ responses were synergistically predictive of stringent conversion in contacts.

Identification of differentially recognized T cell epitopes in the spectrum of Mtb infection.

Tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis is one of the leading causes of death from a single infectious agent. Identifying dominant epitopes and comparing their reactivity in different tuberculosis (TB) infection states can help design diagnostics and vaccines. We performed a proteome-wide screen of 20,610 Mtb derived peptides in 21 Active TB (ATB) patients 3-4 months post-diagnosis of pulmonary TB (mid-treatment) using an IFNγ and IL-17 Fluorospot assay. Responses were mediated exclusively by IFNγ and identified a total of 137 unique epitopes, with each patient recognizing, on average, 8 individual epitopes and 22 epitopes (16%) recognized by 2 or more participants. Responses were predominantly directed against antigens part of the cell wall and cell processes category. Testing 517 peptides spanning TB vaccine candidates and ESAT-6 and CFP10 antigens also revealed differential recognition between ATB participants mid-treatment and healthy IGRA+ participants of several vaccine antigens. An ATB-specific peptide pool consisting of epitopes exclusively recognized by participants mid-treatment, allowed distinguishing participants with active pulmonary TB from healthy interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA)+/- participants from diverse geographical locations. Analysis of longitudinal samples indicated decreased reactivity during treatment for pulmonary TB. Together, these results show that a proteome-wide screen of T cell reactivity identifies epitopes and antigens that are differentially recognized depending on the Mtb infection stage. These have potential use in developing diagnostics and vaccine candidates and measuring correlates of protection.

Limited Nosocomial Transmission of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis, Moldova.

Applying whole-genome-sequencing, we aimed to detect transmission events of multidrug-resistant/rifampin-resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex at a tuberculosis hospital in Chisinau, Moldova. We recorded ward, room, and bed information for each patient and monitored in-hospital transfers over 1 year. Detailed molecular and patient surveillance revealed only 2 nosocomial transmission events.

Clinical Evaluation of the XDR-LFC Assay for the Molecular Detection of Isoniazid, Rifampin, Fluoroquinolone, Kanamycin, Capreomycin, and Amikacin Drug Resistance in a Prospective Cohort.

While the goal of universal drug susceptibility testing has been a key component of the WHO End TB Strategy, in practice, this remains inaccessible to many. Rapid molecular tests for tuberculosis (TB) and antituberculosis drug resistance could significantly improve access to testing. In this study, we evaluated the accuracy of the Akonni Biosystems XDR-TB (extensively drug-resistant TB) TruArray and lateral-flow-cell (XDR-LFC) assay (Akonni Biosystems, Inc., Frederick, MD, USA), a novel assay that detects mutations in seven genes associated with resistance to antituberculosis drugs: katG, the inhA promoter, and the ahpC promoter for isoniazid; rpoB for rifampin; gyrA for fluoroquinolones; rrs and the eis promoter for kanamycin; and rrs for capreomycin and amikacin. We evaluated assay performance using direct sputum samples from 566 participants recruited in a prospective cohort in Moldova over 2 years. The sensitivity and specificity against the phenotypic reference were both 100% for isoniazid, 99.2% and 97.9% for rifampin, 84.8% and 99.1% for fluoroquinolones, 87.0% and 84.1% for kanamycin, 54.3% and 100% for capreomycin, and 79.2% and 100% for amikacin, respectively. Whole-genome sequencing data for a subsample of 272 isolates showed 95 to 99% concordance with the XDR-LFC-reported suspected mutations. The XDR-LFC assay demonstrated a high level of accuracy for multiple drugs and met the WHO's minimum target product profile criteria for isoniazid and rifampin, while the sensitivity for fluoroquinolones and amikacin fell below target thresholds, likely due to the absence of a gyrB target in the assay. With optimization, the XDR-LFC shows promise as a novel near-patient technology to rapidly diagnose drug-resistant tuberculosis.

Predicting resistance to fluoroquinolones among patients with rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis using machine learning methods.

Background: Limited access to drug-susceptibility tests (DSTs) and delays in receiving DST results are challenges for timely and appropriate treatment of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (TB) in many low-resource settings. We investigated whether data collected as part of routine, national TB surveillance could be used to develop predictive models to identify additional resistance to fluoroquinolones (FLQs), a critical second-line class of anti-TB agents, at the time of diagnosis with rifampin-resistant TB. Methods and findings: We assessed three machine learning-based models (logistic regression, neural network, and random forest) using information from 540 patients with rifampicin-resistant TB, diagnosed using Xpert MTB/RIF and notified in the Republic of Moldova between January 2018 and December 2019. The models were trained to predict the resistance to FLQs based on demographic and TB clinical information of patients and the estimated district-level prevalence of resistance to FLQs. We compared these models based on the optimism-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (OC-AUC-ROC). The OC-AUC-ROC of all models were statistically greater than 0.5. The neural network model, which utilizes twelve features, performed best and had an estimated OC-AUC-ROC of 0.87 (0.83,0.91), which suggests reasonable discriminatory power. A limitation of our study is that our models are based only on data from the Republic of Moldova and since not externally validated, the generalizability of these models to other populations remains unknown. Conclusions: Models trained on data from phenotypic surveillance of drug-resistant TB can predict resistance to FLQs based on patient characteristics at the time of diagnosis with rifampin-resistant TB using Xpert MTB/RIF, and information about the local prevalence of resistance to FLQs. These models may be useful for informing the selection of antibiotics while awaiting results of DSTs.

Transcontinental spread and evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis W148 European/Russian clade toward extensively drug resistant tuberculosis.

Transmission-driven multi-/extensively drug resistant (M/XDR) tuberculosis (TB) is the largest single contributor to human mortality due to antimicrobial resistance. A few major clades of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex belonging to lineage 2, responsible for high prevalence of MDR-TB in Eurasia, show outstanding transnational distributions. Here, we determined factors underlying the emergence and epidemic spread of the W148 clade by genome sequencing and Bayesian demogenetic analyses of 720 isolates from 23 countries. We dated a common ancestor around 1963 and identified two successive epidemic expansions in the late 1980s and late 1990s, coinciding with major socio-economic changes in the post-Soviet Era. These population expansions favored accumulation of resistance mutations to up to 11 anti-TB drugs, with MDR evolving toward additional resistances to fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable drugs within 20 years on average. Timescaled haplotypic density analysis revealed that widespread acquisition of compensatory mutations was associated with transmission success of XDR strains. Virtually all W148 strains harbored a hypervirulence-associated ppe38 gene locus, and incipient recurrent emergence of prpR mutation-mediated drug tolerance was detected. The outstanding genetic arsenal of this geographically widespread M/XDR strain clade represents a "perfect storm" that jeopardizes the successful introduction of new anti-M/XDR-TB antibiotic regimens.

Investigating resistance in clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolates with genomic and phenotypic antimicrobial susceptibility testing: a multicentre observational study.

BACKGROUND: Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex has become an important tool in diagnosis and management of drug-resistant tuberculosis. However, data correlating resistance genotype with quantitative phenotypic antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) are scarce. METHODS: In a prospective multicentre observational study, 900 clinical M tuberculosis complex isolates were collected from adults with drug-resistant tuberculosis in five high-endemic tuberculosis settings around the world (Georgia, Moldova, Peru, South Africa, and Viet Nam) between Dec 5, 2014, and Dec 12, 2017. Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) and resulting binary phenotypic AST results for up to nine antituberculosis drugs were determined and correlated with resistance-conferring mutations identified by WGS. FINDINGS: Considering WHO-endorsed critical concentrations as reference, WGS had high accuracy for prediction of resistance to isoniazid (sensitivity 98·8% [95% CI 98·5-99·0]; specificity 96·6% [95% CI 95·2-97·9]), levofloxacin (sensitivity 94·8% [93·3-97·6]; specificity 97·1% [96·7-97·6]), kanamycin (sensitivity 96·1% [95·4-96·8]; specificity 95·0% [94·4-95·7]), amikacin (sensitivity 97·2% [96·4-98·1]; specificity 98·6% [98·3-98·9]), and capreomycin (sensitivity 93·1% [90·0-96·3]; specificity 98·3% [98·0-98·7]). For rifampicin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol, the specificity of resistance prediction was suboptimal (64·0% [61·0-67·1], 83·8% [81·0-86·5], and 40·1% [37·4-42·9], respectively). Specificity for rifampicin increased to 83·9% when borderline mutations with MICs overlapping with the critical concentration were excluded. Consequently, we highlighted mutations in M tuberculosis complex isolates that are often falsely identified as susceptible by phenotypic AST, and we identified potential novel resistance-conferring mutations. INTERPRETATION: The combined analysis of mutations and quantitative phenotypes shows the potential of WGS to produce a refined interpretation of resistance, which is needed for individualised therapy, and eventually could allow differential drug dosing. However, variability of MIC data for some M tuberculosis complex isolates carrying identical mutations also reveals limitations of our understanding of the genotype and phenotype relationships (eg, including epistasis and strain genetic background). FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, German Centre for Infection Research, German Research Foundation, Excellence Cluster Precision Medicine of Inflammation (EXC 2167), and Leibniz ScienceCampus EvoLUNG.

Phylogeography and transmission of M. tuberculosis in Moldova: A prospective genomic analysis.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains critically high in countries of the former Soviet Union, where >20% of new cases and >50% of previously treated cases have resistance to rifampin and isoniazid. Transmission of resistant strains, as opposed to resistance selected through inadequate treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis (TB), is the main driver of incident MDR-TB in these countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a prospective, genomic analysis of all culture-positive TB cases diagnosed in 2018 and 2019 in the Republic of Moldova. We used phylogenetic methods to identify putative transmission clusters; spatial and demographic data were analyzed to further describe local transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Of 2,236 participants, 779 (36%) had MDR-TB, of whom 386 (50%) had never been treated previously for TB. Moreover, 92% of multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis strains belonged to putative transmission clusters. Phylogenetic reconstruction identified 3 large clades that were comprised nearly uniformly of MDR-TB: 2 of these clades were of Beijing lineage, and 1 of Ural lineage, and each had additional distinct clade-specific second-line drug resistance mutations and geographic distributions. Spatial and temporal proximity between pairs of cases within a cluster was associated with greater genomic similarity. Our study lasted for only 2 years, a relatively short duration compared with the natural history of TB, and, thus, the ability to infer the full extent of transmission is limited. CONCLUSIONS: The MDR-TB epidemic in Moldova is associated with the local transmission of multiple M. tuberculosis strains, including distinct clades of highly drug-resistant M. tuberculosis with varying geographic distributions and drug resistance profiles. This study demonstrates the role of comprehensive genomic surveillance for understanding the transmission of M. tuberculosis and highlights the urgency of interventions to interrupt transmission of highly drug-resistant M. tuberculosis.

Integrating landmark modeling framework and machine learning algorithms for dynamic prediction of tuberculosis treatment outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to establish an informative dynamic prediction model of treatment outcomes using follow-up records of tuberculosis (TB) patients, which can timely detect cases when the current treatment plan may not be effective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used 122 267 follow-up records from 17 958 new cases of pulmonary TB in the Republic of Moldova. A dynamic prediction framework integrating landmark modeling and machine learning algorithms was designed to predict patient outcomes during the course of treatment. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated to evaluate performance of the model at critical time points. New measures were defined to determine when follow-up laboratory tests should be conducted to obtain most informative results. RESULTS: The random-forest algorithm performed better than support vector machine and penalized multinomial logistic regression models for predicting TB treatment outcomes. For all 3 outcome classes (ie, cured, not cured, and died after 24 months following treatment initiation), sensitivity and PPV of prediction models improved as more follow-up information was collected. Specifically, sensitivity and PPV increased from 0.55 to 0.84 and from 0.32 to 0.88, respectively, for the not cured class. CONCLUSION: The dynamic prediction framework utilizes longitudinal laboratory test results to predict patient outcomes at various landmarks. Sputum culture and smear results are among the important variables for prediction; however, the most recent sputum result is not always the most informative one. This framework can potentially facilitate a more effective treatment monitoring program and provide insights for policymakers toward improved guidelines on follow-up tests.

Benchmarking the empirical accuracy of short-read sequencing across the M. tuberculosis genome.

MOTIVATION: Short-read whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is a vital tool for clinical applications and basic research. Genetic divergence from the reference genome, repetitive sequences and sequencing bias reduces the performance of variant calling using short-read alignment, but the loss in recall and specificity has not been adequately characterized. To benchmark short-read variant calling, we used 36 diverse clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) isolates dually sequenced with Illumina short-reads and PacBio long-reads. We systematically studied the short-read variant calling accuracy and the influence of sequence uniqueness, reference bias and GC content. RESULTS: Reference-based Illumina variant calling demonstrated a maximum recall of 89.0% and minimum precision of 98.5% across parameters evaluated. The approach that maximized variant recall while still maintaining high precision (<99%) was tuning the mapping quality filtering threshold, i.e. confidence of the read mapping (recall = 85.8%, precision = 99.1%, MQ ≥ 40). Additional masking of repetitive sequence content is an alternative conservative approach to variant calling that increases precision at cost to recall (recall = 70.2%, precision = 99.6%, MQ ≥ 40). Of the genomic positions typically excluded for Mtb, 68% are accurately called using Illumina WGS including 52/168 PE/PPE genes (34.5%). From these results, we present a refined list of low confidence regions across the Mtb genome, which we found to frequently overlap with regions with structural variation, low sequence uniqueness and low sequencing coverage. Our benchmarking results have broad implications for the use of WGS in the study of Mtb biology, inference of transmission in public health surveillance systems and more generally for WGS applications in other organisms. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: All relevant code is available at https://github.com/farhat-lab/mtb-illumina-wgs-evaluation. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Emergence of bedaquiline resistance in a high tuberculosis burden country.

RATIONALE: Bedaquiline has been classified as a group A drug for the treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) by the World Health Organization; however, globally emerging resistance threatens the effectivity of novel MDR-TB treatment regimens. OBJECTIVES: We analysed pre-existing and emerging bedaquiline resistance in bedaquiline-based MDR-TB therapies, and risk factors associated with treatment failure and death. METHODS: In a cross-sectional cohort study, we employed patient data, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and phenotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) isolates. We could retrieve baseline isolates from 30.5% (62 out of 203) of all MDR-TB patients who received bedaquiline between 2016 and 2018 in the Republic of Moldova. This includes 26 patients for whom we could also retrieve a follow-up isolate. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: At baseline, all MTBC isolates were susceptible to bedaquiline. Among 26 patients with available baseline and follow-up isolates, four (15.3%) patients harboured strains which acquired bedaquiline resistance under therapy, while one (3.8%) patient was re-infected with a second bedaquiline-resistant strain. Treatment failure and death were associated with cavitary disease (p=0.011), and any additional drug prescribed in the bedaquiline-containing regimen with WGS-predicted resistance at baseline (OR 1.92 per unit increase, 95% CI 1.15-3.21; p=0.012). CONCLUSIONS: MDR-TB treatments based on bedaquiline require a functional background regimen to achieve high cure rates and to prevent the evolution of bedaquiline resistance. Novel MDR-TB therapies with bedaquiline require timely and comprehensive drug resistance monitoring.

Detection of isoniazid, fluoroquinolone, ethionamide, amikacin, kanamycin, and capreomycin resistance by the Xpert MTB/XDR assay: a cross-sectional multicentre diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: The WHO End TB Strategy requires drug susceptibility testing and treatment of all people with tuberculosis, but second-line diagnostic testing with line-probe assays needs to be done in experienced laboratories with advanced infrastructure. Fewer than half of people with drug-resistant tuberculosis receive appropriate treatment. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the rapid Xpert MTB/XDR automated molecular assay (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) to overcome these limitations. METHODS: We did a prospective study involving individuals presenting with pulmonary tuberculosis symptoms and at least one risk factor for drug resistance in four sites in India (New Delhi and Mumbai), Moldova, and South Africa between July 31, 2019, and March 21, 2020. The Xpert MTB/XDR assay was used as a reflex test to detect resistance to isoniazid, fluoroquinolones, ethionamide, amikacin, kanamycin, and capreomycin in adults with positive results for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex on Xpert MTB/RIF or Ultra (Cepheid). Diagnostic performance was assessed against a composite reference standard of phenotypic drug-susceptibility testing and whole-genome sequencing. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT03728725. FINDINGS: Of 710 participants, 611 (86%) had results from both Xpert MTB/XDR and the reference standard for any drug and were included in analysis. Sensitivity for Xpert MTB/XDR detection of resistance was 94% (460 of 488, 95% CI 92-96) for isoniazid, 94% (222 of 235, 90-96%) for fluoroquinolones, 54% (178 of 328, 50-61) for ethionamide, 73% (60 of 82, 62-81) for amikacin, 86% (181 of 210, 81-91) for kanamycin, and 61% (53 of 87, 49-70) for capreomycin. Specificity was 98-100% for all drugs. Performance was equivalent to that of line-probe assays. The non-determinate rate of Xpert MTB/XDR (ie, invalid M tuberculosis complex detection) was 2·96%. INTERPRETATION: The Xpert MTB/XDR assay showed high diagnostic accuracy and met WHO's minimum target product profile criteria for a next-generation drug susceptibility test. The assay has the potential to diagnose drug-resistant tuberculosis rapidly and accurately and enable optimum treatment. FUNDING: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through KfW, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Evolution and emergence of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Chisinau, Moldova.

The evolution and emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) has been studied extensively in some contexts, but the ecological drivers of these two processes remain poorly understood. This study sought to describe the joint evolutionary and epidemiological histories of a novel multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain recently identified in the capital city of the Republic of Moldova (MDR Ural/4.2), where genomic surveillance of drug-resistant M. tuberculosis has been limited thus far. Using whole genome sequence data and Bayesian phylogenomic methods, we reconstruct the stepwise acquisition of drug resistance mutations in the MDR Ural/4.2 strain, estimate its historical bacterial population size over time, and infer the migration history of this strain between Eastern European countries. We infer that MDR Ural/4.2 likely evolved (via acquisition of rpoB S450L, which confers resistance to rifampin) in the early 1990s, during a period of social turmoil following Moldovan independence from the Soviet Union. This strain subsequently underwent substantial population size expansion in the early 2000s, at a time when national guidelines encouraged inpatient treatment of TB patients. We infer exportation of this strain and its isoniazid-resistant ancestral precursor from Moldova to neighbouring countries starting as early as 1985. Our findings suggest temporal and ecological associations between specific public health practices, including inpatient hospitalization of drug-resistant TB cases from the early 2000s until 2013, and the evolution of drug-resistant M. tuberculosis in Moldova. These findings underscore the need for regional coordination in TB control and expanded genomic surveillance efforts across Eastern Europe.

Rapid Detection of Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Clinical Samples Using a Novel Tabletop Platform: Protocol for a Prospective Clinical Study.

BACKGROUND: The lack of accurate and efficient diagnostic devices for extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) makes it a severe threat to global public health. A prospective clinical study in an intended-use cohort was designed to evaluate the Akonni Biosystems XDR-TB TruArray and lateral flow cell (XDR-LFC) to address this gap in tuberculosis diagnostics. OBJECTIVE: This paper presents the protocol for a study that aims to document the conceptualization and design of this evaluation method for early dissemination while data collection and analysis are ongoing. METHODS: The clinical study was conducted in three phases. The first phase was to observe changes in bacterial load and culture positivity in patient sputa over time and better understand the diversity of prospective clinical samples. The second phase was to prospectively collect clinical samples for sensitivity and specificity testing of the Akonni Biosystems XDR-LFC device. Lastly, the third phase was to explore the anti-TB drug concentrations in serum throughout the drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment. RESULTS: The methodology described includes the study design, laboratory sample handling, data collection, and the protection elements of human subjects of this clinical study to evaluate a potential new XDR-TB diagnostic device. A total of 664 participants were enrolled across the three phases. The implemented complex systems facilitated a thorough clinical data collection for an objective evaluation of the device. The study is closed to recruitment. The follow-up data collection and analysis are in progress. CONCLUSIONS: This paper outlined a prospective cohort study protocol to evaluate a rapid XDR-TB detection device, which may be informative for other researchers with similar goals. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/26748.