The impact of the 21 November 2016 epidemic thunderstorm asthma event on general practice clinics in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: On 21 November 2016, parts of Victoria experienced a devastating epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETSA) event. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology and burden of the 2016 ETSA event at MedicineInsight-registered general practices in the Melbourne metropolitan area in Victoria, Australia. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was conducted using patient record data from 21-23 November 2016. Codes were developed to identify all patients presenting to MedicineInsight-registered general practices with asthma during the 2016 ETSA event. RESULTS: During the event, there were 787 more asthma-related encounters to MedicineInsight general practices than expected, which represented a 7.1-fold increase (605% increase). Estimates suggest that there were between approximately 8940 and 13,689 more asthma-related encounters than expected across metropolitan Melbourne. DISCUSSION: General practices were significantly affected by the 2016 ETSA event. This work highlights the important part that general practices play in responding to ETSA events and the need for these practices to be prepared to respond.

Thunderstorm asthma in seasonal allergic rhinitis: The TAISAR study.

BACKGROUND: Asthma epidemics associated with thunderstorms have had catastrophic effects on individuals and emergency services. Seasonal allergic rhinitis (SAR) is present in the vast majority of people who develop thunderstorm asthma (TA), but there is little evidence regarding risk factors for TA among the SAR population. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify risk factors for a history of TA and hospital presentation in a cohort of individuals with SAR. METHODS: This multicenter study recruited adults from Melbourne, Australia, with a past diagnosis of TA and/or self-reported SAR. Clinical information, spirometry results, white blood cell count, ryegrass pollen-specific (RGP-sp) IgE concentration, and fractional exhaled nitric oxide were measured to identify risk factors for a history of TA in individuals with SAR. RESULTS: From a total of 228 individuals with SAR, 35% (80 of 228) reported SAR only (the I-SAR group), 37% (84 of 228) reported TA symptoms but had not attended hospital for treatment (the O-TA group), and 28% (64 of 228) had presented to the hospital for TA (the H-TA group). All patients in the H-TA group reported a previous asthma diagnosis. Logistic regression analysis of factors associated with O-TA and H-TA indicated that lower FEV1 value and an Asthma Control Questionnaire score higher than 1.5 were associated with H-TA. Higher blood RGP-sp IgE concentration, eosinophil counts, and fractional exhaled nitric oxide level were significantly associated with both O-TA and H-TA. Receiver operating curve analysis showed an RGP-sp IgE concentration higher than 10.1 kU/L and a prebronchodilator FEV1 value of 90% or lower to be biomarkers of increased H-TA risk. CONCLUSION: Clinical tests can identify risk of a history of TA in individuals with SAR and thereby inform patient-specific treatment recommendations.

Are convergence lines associated with high asthma presentation days? A case-control study in Melbourne, Australia.

BACKGROUND: In epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETSA) events a large number of people develop asthma symptoms over a short period of time. This is thought to occur because of a unique combination of high amounts of pollen and certain meteorological conditions. However, the exact cause and mechanism of epidemic thunderstorm asthma remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that convergence lines may be a causative factor in ETSA events, by investigating whether convergence line weather events are associated with the occurrence of high asthma presentations days during the Victorian grass pollen season (October-December). METHODS: A case control method was used. All public hospitals within 75 km of the Melbourne weather radar were included, and data were taken from 2009 to 2017 during the Victorian grass pollen season. Cases hospital days were hospitals with a high number of asthma presentations within a 24-h period, and controls were hospitals with an expected number of asthma presentations. Exposure was defined as geographical proximity of a convergence line to the hospital case or control. RESULTS: Eighty-one case hospital days and 157 hospital day controls were included in the study. The odds of exposure to a convergence line were significantly higher for cases than for controls at all exposure distances. At 4 km, 80 of the 81 cases had been exposed to a convergence line. CONCLUSION: Convergence lines appear to be a necessary, but not sufficient, element in the cause of epidemic thunderstorm asthma. This is the first study to show a clear link between epidemic thunderstorm asthma and convergence lines.

The Melbourne epidemic thunderstorm asthma event 2016: an investigation of environmental triggers, effect on health services, and patient risk factors.

BACKGROUND: A multidisciplinary collaboration investigated the world's largest, most catastrophic epidemic thunderstorm asthma event that took place in Melbourne, Australia, on Nov 21, 2016, to inform mechanisms and preventive strategies. METHODS: Meteorological and airborne pollen data, satellite-derived vegetation index, ambulance callouts, emergency department presentations, and data on hospital admissions for Nov 21, 2016, as well as leading up to and following the event were collected between Nov 21, 2016, and March 31, 2017, and analysed. We contacted patients who presented during the epidemic thunderstorm asthma event at eight metropolitan health services (each including up to three hospitals) via telephone questionnaire to determine patient characteristics, and investigated outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. FINDINGS: Grass pollen concentrations on Nov 21, 2016, were extremely high (>100 grains/m3). At 1800 AEDT, a gust front crossed Melbourne, plunging temperatures 10°C, raising humidity above 70%, and concentrating particulate matter. Within 30 h, there were 3365 (672%) excess respiratory-related presentations to emergency departments, and 476 (992%) excess asthma-related admissions to hospital, especially individuals of Indian or Sri Lankan birth (10% vs 1%, p<0·0001) and south-east Asian birth (8% vs 1%, p<0·0001) compared with previous 3 years. Questionnaire data from 1435 (64%) of 2248 emergency department presentations showed a mean age of 32·0 years (SD 18·6), 56% of whom were male. Only 28% had current doctor-diagnosed asthma. 39% of the presentations were of Asian or Indian ethnicity (25% of the Melbourne population were of this ethnicity according to the 2016 census, relative risk [RR] 1·93, 95% CI 1·74-2·15, p <0·0001). Of ten individuals who died, six were Asian or Indian (RR 4·54, 95% CI 1·28-16·09; p=0·01). 35 individuals were admitted to an intensive care unit, all had asthma, 12 took inhaled preventers, and five died. INTERPRETATION: Convergent environmental factors triggered a thunderstorm asthma epidemic of unprecedented magnitude, tempo, and geographical range and severity on Nov 21, 2016, creating a new benchmark for emergency and health service escalation. Asian or Indian ethnicity and current doctor-diagnosed asthma portended life-threatening exacerbations such as those requiring admission to an ICU. Overall, the findings provide important public health lessons applicable to future event forecasting, health care response coordination, protection of at-risk populations, and medical management of epidemic thunderstorm asthma. FUNDING: None.