Assessing the risk of oil spill impacts and potential biodiversity loss for coastal marine environment at the turn of the COVID-19 pandemic event.

The Tuscan Archipelago, with its great environmental and economic importance, is one of the highest oil spill density areas in the Western Mediterranean. In this study, an interdisciplinary approach, based on numerical applications and experimental methods, was implemented to quantify the risk of oil spill impact along the rocky shores of this archipelago in relation to the maritime activities. The risk, defined as a combination of the hazard and the damage, was quantified for the biennial 2019-2020 in order to account for the effects generated by the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions on the local maritime traffic. A high-resolution oceanographic and particle tracking model was applied to simulate the trajectories of possible oil spill events and to quantify the hazard of impacts on the coast of numerical particles, daily seeded in correspondence of those marine sectors that are characterised by relevant traffic of vessels. The damage, expressed as the product of exposure and vulnerability, was estimated following an extensive sampling approach aimed at quantifying the ecological status of the rocky shores in four selected islands of the Tuscan Archipelago. Results revealed and quantified the direct relationship between the temporary reduction of the maritime traffic due to the pandemic restrictions, and the probability of suffering damage from oil spill impact along the archipelago's rocky shores, which was highly context-dependent.

Aerobic metabolic scope mapping of an invasive fish species with global warming.

Climate change will exacerbate the negative effects associated with the introduction of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invasive species in relation to environmental warming is therefore a fundamental task in ecology and conservation. The Baltic Sea is currently threatened by several local stressors and the highest increase in sea surface temperature of the world's large marine ecosystems. These new thermal conditions can further favour the spreading of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), a fish of Ponto-Caspian origin, currently well established in the southern and central parts of the Baltic Sea. This study aims to assess the thermal habitat suitability of the round goby in the Baltic Sea considering the past and future conditions. The study combines sightings records with known physiological models of aerobic performance and sea surface temperatures. Physiological models read these temperatures, at sighting times and locations, to determine their effects on the aerobic metabolic scope (AMS) of the fish, a measure of its energetic potential in relation to environmental conditions. The geographical mapping of the AMS was used to describe the changes in habitat suitability during the past 3 decades and for climatic predictions (until 2100) showing that the favourable thermal habitat in the Baltic Sea has increased during the past 32 years and will continue to do so in all the applied climate model predictions. Particularly, the predicted new thermal conditions do not cause any reduction in the AMS of round goby populations, while the wintertime cold ranges are likely expected to preserve substantial areas from invasion. The results of this research can guide future monitoring programs increasing the chance to detect this invader in novel areas.

Large-Scale Mercury Dispersion at Sea: Modelling a Multi-Hazard Case Study from Augusta Bay (Central Mediterranean Sea).

This contribution discusses an example of potential multi-hazard effects resulting from an earthquake in a highly seismogenic area of the Mediterranean Sea, the Augusta Bay, which presents high levels of contamination in sediments and seawater, due particularly to high-concentrations of mercury as a result of a long-term industrial exploitation. In particular, a high-resolution hydrodynamic and transport model is used to calculate the effects of enhanced mercury spreading in the open sea after significant damage and collapse of the artificial damming system confining the embayment where a very high concentration of Hg occurs in seafloor sediments and seawater. Coupling high-resolution 3D dynamic circulation modelling and sediment-seawater Hg fluxes calculated using the HR3DHG diffusion-reaction model for both inorganic and organic Hg species offers a valuable approach to simulating and estimating the effects of spatial dispersion of this contaminant due to unpredictable hazard events in coastal systems, with the potential attendant enhanced effects on the marine ecosystem. The simulated scenario definitely suggests that a combination of natural and anthropogenic multi-hazards calls for a thorough re-thinking of risk management in marine areas characterised by significant levels of contamination and where a deep understanding of the biogeochemical dynamics of pollutants does not cover all the aspects of danger for the environment.

The challenge of managing the commercial harvesting of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus: advanced approaches are required.

Sea urchins act as a keystone herbivore in marine coastal ecosystems, regulating macrophyte density, which offers refuge for multiple species. In the Mediterranean Sea, both the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and fish preying on it are highly valuable target species for artisanal fisheries. As a consequence of the interactions between fish, sea urchins and macrophyte, fishing leads to trophic disorders with detrimental consequences for biodiversity and fisheries. In Sardinia (Western Mediterranean Sea), regulations for sea urchin harvesting have been in place since the mid 90s. However, given the important ecological role of P. lividus, the single-species fishery management may fail to take into account important ecosystem interactions. Hence, a deeper understanding of population dynamics, their dependance on environmental constraints and multispecies interactions may help to achieve long-term sustainable use of this resource. This work aims to highlight how sea urchin population structure varies spatially in relation to local environmental constraints and species interactions, with implications for their management. The study area (Sinis Peninsula, West Sardinia, Italy) that includes a Marine Reserve was divided into five sectors. These display combinations of the environmental constraints influencing sea urchin population dynamics, namely type of habitat (calcareous rock, granite, basalt, patchy and continuous meadows of Posidonia oceanica), average bottom current speed and predatory fish abundance. Size-frequency distribution of sea urchins under commercial size (<5 cm diameter size) assessed during the period from 2004 to 2007, before the population collapse in 2010, were compared for sectors and types of habitat. Specific correlations between recruits (0-1 cm diameter size) and bottom current speeds and between middle-sized sea urchins (2-5 cm diameter size) and predatory fish abundance were assessed. Parameters representing habitat spatial configuration (patch density, perimeter-to-area ratio, mean patch size, largest patch index, interspersion/juxtaposition index) were calculated and their influence on sea urchin density assessed. The density of sea urchins under commercial size was significantly higher in calcareous rock and was positively and significantly influenced by the density and average size of the rocky habitat patches. Recruits were significantly abundant in rocky habitats, while they were almost absent in P. oceanica meadows. The density of middle-sized sea urchins was more abundant in calcareous rock than in basalt, granite or P. oceanica. High densities of recruits resulted significantly correlated to low values of average bottom current speed, while a negative trend between the abundance of middle-sized sea urchins and predatory fish was found. Our results point out the need to account for the environmental constraints influencing local sea urchin density in fisheries management.

Hydrodynamic controls on connectivity of the high commercial value shrimp Parapenaeus longirostris (Lucas, 1846) in the Mediterranean Sea.

In the Strait of Sicily (SoS), a wide passage of the Mediterranean Sea, Parapenaeus longirostris, (Lucas, 1846; DPS hereafter) is the main target species of trawl fisheries, with an estimated annual market value of about 80 million euro. The exploitation of this resource is shared between Italian, Tunisian and Maltese bottom trawlers and its management raises social, economic and environmental interests. Recent stock assessment revealed high fishing mortalities and low size at first capture, thus promoting the adoption of a strategic plan for a sustainable management. However, the current knowledge of the geographical boundaries of the stock, supporting  the implementation of such management plan is still poor. In this respect, under different hydrodynamic regimes, particle-tracking modelling was used to explore connectivity between both, known and unexplored, spawning and nursery areas of DPS in the SoS. Ensembles scenarios derived by model outcomes displayed decadal changes in connectivity between spawning and nursery areas in the north side of the SoS, hence confirming the presence of a single stock in this area. Expanding the area of investigation, the model results showed weak connectivity between spawning ground in the north side of SoS and nurseries on the African shelf-break. This method could support the spatial management of the stock, such as the protection of the nursery and spawning areas, by providing estimates of how connectivity is influenced by hydrodynamic regimes at different temporal and spatial scales.

Ocean warming and acidification pose synergistic limits to the thermal niche of an economically important echinoderm.

To make robust projectios of the impacts of climate change, it is critical to understand how abiotic factors may interact to constrain the distribution and productivity of marine flora and fauna. We evaluated the effects of projected end of the century ocean acidification (OA) and warming (OW) on the thermal tolerance of an important living marine resource, the sea urchin Loxechinus albus, a benthic shallow water coastal herbivore inhabiting part of the Pacific coast of South America. After exposing young juveniles for a 1-month period to contrasting pCO2 (~500 and 1400 µatm) and temperature (~15 °C and 20 °C) levels, critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and minimum (CTmin) as well as thermal tolerance polygons were assessed based on self-righting success as an end point. Transcription of heat shock protein 70 (HSP70), a chaperone protecting cellular proteins from environmental stress, was also measured. Exposure to elevated pCO2 significantly reduced thermal tolerance by increasing CTmin at both experimental temperatures and decreasing CTmax at 20 °C. There was also a strong synergistic effect of OA × OW on HSP70 transcription levels which were 75 times higher than in control conditions. If this species is unable to adapt to elevated pCO2 in the future, the reduction in thermal tolerance and HSP response suggests that near-future warming and OA will disrupt their performance and reduce their distribution with ecological and economic consequences. Given the wider latitudinal range (6 to 56°S) and environmental tolerance of L. albus compared to other members of this region's benthic invertebrate community, OW and OA may cause substantial changes to the coastal fauna along this geographical range.

Self-organisation in striped seagrass meadows affects the distributional pattern of the sessile bivalve Pinna nobilis.

Striped seagrass meadows are formed by narrow ribbons which are elevated over the seabed and separated by channels. Limited information on the genesis and development of this morphological pattern, including the adaptive responses of associated biota, is preventing holistic insight into the functioning of such protected ecosystems. This paper assessed the structural dynamics of a Posidonia oceanica striped meadow and the distribution and 3D orientation of the associated bivalve Pinna nobilis. Our analysis of the interaction between bedforms, bottom currents, and the distribution of P. nobilis revealed that the striped seascape is the result of a self-organisation process driven by feedback interactions among seagrass growth, sediment deposition, and hydrodynamics. The results suggest that the ribbon wall is the most suitable sub-habitat for this species, because it supports the highest density of P. nobilis, compared to the meadow top and bottom. Here, specimens can take advantage of the resuspension induced by hydrodynamics and open their shells towards the current, thus enhancing food intake. Therefore, our results show that self-organisation in striped seagrass meadow affects the distributional pattern of P. nobilis, providing new insights into the autoecology of this species beyond the conservation implications for its habitat.

Structure-metabolism relationships in human-AOX: Chemical insights from a large database of aza-aromatic and amide compounds.

Aldehyde oxidase (AOX) is a metabolic enzyme catalyzing the oxidation of aldehyde and aza-aromatic compounds and the hydrolysis of amides, moieties frequently shared by the majority of drugs. Despite its key role in human metabolism, to date only fragmentary information about the chemical features responsible for AOX susceptibility are reported and only "very local" structure-metabolism relationships based on a small number of similar compounds have been developed. This study reports a more comprehensive coverage of the chemical space of structures with a high risk of AOX phase I metabolism in humans. More than 270 compounds were studied to identify the site of metabolism and the metabolite(s). Both electronic [supported by density functional theory (DFT) calculations] and exposure effects were considered when rationalizing the structure-metabolism relationship.

The Trapping Index: How to integrate the Eulerian and the Lagrangian approach for the computation of the transport time scales of semi-enclosed basins.

In this work, we investigated if the Eulerian and the Lagrangian approaches for the computation of the Transport Time Scales (TTS) of semi-enclosed water bodies can be used univocally to define the spatial variability of basin flushing features. The Eulerian and Lagrangian TTS were computed for both simplified test cases and a realistic domain: the Venice Lagoon. The results confirmed the two approaches cannot be adopted univocally and that the spatial variability of the water renewal capacity can be investigated only through the computation of both the TTS. A specific analysis, based on the computation of a so-called Trapping Index, was then suggested to integrate the information provided by the two different approaches. The obtained results proved the Trapping Index to be useful to avoid any misleading interpretation due to the evaluation of the basin renewal features just from an Eulerian only or from a Lagrangian only perspective.

Assessment of oil slick hazard and risk at vulnerable coastal sites.

This work gives an assessment of the hazard faced by Sicily coasts regarding potential offshore surface oil spill events and provides a risk assessment for Sites of Community Importance (SCI) and Special Protection Areas (SPA). A lagrangian module, coupled with a high resolution finite element three dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to track the ensemble of a large number of surface trajectories followed by particles released over 6 selected areas located inside the Sicily Channel. The analysis was carried out under multiple scenarios of meteorological conditions. Oil evaporation, oil weathering, and shore stranding are also considered. Seasonal hazard maps for different stranding times and seasonal risk maps were then produced for the whole Sicilian coastline. The results highlight that depending on the meteo-marine conditions, particles can reach different areas of the Sicily coast, including its northern side, and illustrate how impacts can be greatly reduced through prompt implementation of mitigation strategies.

Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling.

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

Assessing confinement in coastal lagoons.

Measures of transport scale in aquatic systems can contribute to the formulation of definitions of indicators of the system's ecological properties. This paper addresses confinement, a specific transport scale proposed by biological scientists as a parameter that can capture and synthesize the principal properties that determine the spatial structure of biological communities in transitional environments. Currently, there is no direct experimental measure of confinement. In this study, a methodology based on the accumulation rate within a lagoon of a passive tracer of marine origin is proposed, the influences of different factors in the calculation of confinement are analyzed, and general recommendations are derived. In particular, we analyze the spatial and the temporal variability of confinement and its sensitivity to the seasonal variability of climatic forcing, the inputs from rivers and the parameterization of the tidal exchanges. The Lagoon of Venice is used as a case study.

Conservation physiology of marine fishes: advancing the predictive capacity of models.

At the end of May, 17 scientists involved in an EU COST Action on Conservation Physiology of Marine Fishes met in Oristano, Sardinia, to discuss how physiology can be better used in modelling tools to aid in management of marine ecosystems. Current modelling approaches incorporate physiology to different extents, ranging from no explicit consideration to detailed physiological mechanisms, and across scales from a single fish to global fishery resources. Biologists from different sub-disciplines are collaborating to rise to the challenge of projecting future changes in distribution and productivity, assessing risks for local populations, or predicting and mitigating the spread of invasive species.