Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya.

The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

Caribbean Lead and Mercury Pollution Archived in a Crater Lake.

Lead and mercury have long histories of anthropogenic use and release to the environment extending into preindustrial times. Yet, the timing, magnitude, and persistence of preindustrial emissions remain enigmatic, especially for mercury. Here, we quantify tropical lead and mercury deposition over the past ∼3000 years using a well-dated sediment core from a small crater lake (Lake Antoine, Grenada). Preindustrial increases in lead and mercury concentrations can be explained by varying inputs of watershed mineral and organic matter, which in turn reflect climate-driven changes in the lake level. We find no evidence that preindustrial lead and mercury use raised deposition rates in this remote ecosystem, and our results underscore the need to carefully evaluate common normalization approaches for changing lithogenic inputs and sedimentation rates. Industrial-era lead and mercury accumulation rates in Lake Antoine have been accelerated by land use and land cover change within the crater rim, yet global industrial pollution remains evident. After correcting for watershed inputs, we find that recent atmospheric lead and mercury deposition rates averaged 2925 and 24 µg/m2/y, respectively, which are in close agreement with monitoring data. Our results challenge recent assessments suggesting preindustrial mercury use raised atmospheric deposition rates globally, highlighting the unique nature of 20th Century industrial pollution.

Natural and anthropogenic sources of lead, zinc, and nickel in sediments of Lake Izabal, Guatemala.

Sediments in Lake Izabal, Guatemala, contain substantial lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and nickel (Ni). The lack of historical data for heavy metal concentrations in the sediments makes it difficult to determine the sources or evaluate whether inputs of metals to the lake have changed through time. We measured the relative abundances and concentrations of Pb, Zn, and Ni by X-Ray Fluorescence core scanning and by Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry in three sediment cores to explore stratigraphic distributions of metals in the lake deposits. High amounts of Pb and Zn in the core taken near the Polochic Delta suggest that galena and sphalerite mining increased Pb and Zn delivery to Lake Izabal between ~1945 and 1965 CE. An up-core Ni increase in the core taken near a different mine on the north shore of Lake Izabal suggests that recent nickel mining operations led to an increase in Ni concentrations in the local sediments, but amounts in the other cores indicate that Ni is not widely distributed throughout the lake. Sediment cores from Lake Izabal are reliable recorders of heavy metal input to the lake, and were measured to establish background metal levels, which would otherwise be unavailable. Concentrations of Pb, Zn, and Ni in older, pre-20th-century Lake Izabal sediments reflect input from natural erosion of bedrock. Our results provide previously unavailable estimates of background metal concentrations in Lake Izabal before the onset of mining. These results are necessary for future monitoring related to mining contamination of the lake ecosystem.

Quantification of drought during the collapse of the classic Maya civilization.

The demise of Lowland Classic Maya civilization during the Terminal Classic Period (~800 to 1000 CE) is a well-cited example of how past climate may have affected ancient societies. Attempts to estimate the magnitude of hydrologic change, however, have met with equivocal success because of the qualitative and indirect nature of available climate proxy data. We reconstructed the past isotopic composition (δ18O, δD, 17O-excess, and d-excess) of water in Lake Chichancanab, Mexico, using a technique that involves isotopic analysis of the structurally bound water in sedimentary gypsum, which was deposited under drought conditions. The triple oxygen and hydrogen isotope data provide a direct measure of past changes in lake hydrology. We modeled the data and conclude that annual precipitation decreased between 41 and 54% (with intervals of up to 70% rainfall reduction during peak drought conditions) and that relative humidity declined by 2 to 7% compared to present-day conditions.

Using Carbon, Oxygen, Strontium, and Lead Isotopes in Modern Human Teeth for Forensic Investigations: A Critical Overview Based on Data from Bulgaria.

Isotopic data obtained from human remains can provide information about an individual's origin, migration, and diet. We evaluate the usefulness of carbon, oxygen, strontium, and lead isotopes for forensic investigations by comparing data from Bulgarian teeth with data from other regions. Geo-referencing based on oxygen or strontium isotopes can be misleading due to overlap with other countries in Europe and other continents. Carbon and lead isotopes, in combination with oxygen and strontium isotopes, provide the most useful information for identification of local vs foreigner status. In particular, high-precision Pb isotopes show a distinct "Bulgarian" range; however, it is possible that individuals from other countries in Eastern Europe and/or central to western Asia could have overlapping isotopic values. Additional high-precision multi-isotope data from modern humans from different regions in the world are required to transition from speculative to more quantitative estimation of a geographical place of origin for unidentified human remains.

A Holocene Sediment Record of Phosphorus Accumulation in Shallow Lake Harris, Florida (USA) Offers New Perspectives on Recent Cultural Eutrophication.

We studied a complete Holocene sediment record from shallow (zmax = 9.7 m) Lake Harris, Florida (USA) to infer the historical development of the lake and its current eutrophic status. We used (210)Pb and (14)C to date the 5.9-m sediment sequence (core LH-6-13) and determined accumulation rates for bulk sediment, organic matter, calcium carbonate, phosphorus fractions and biogenic silica fractions. The chronology of changes in sediment characteristics for LH-6-13 is consistent with the general paleoenvironmental framework established by core studies from other Florida lakes. Lake Harris began to fill with water in the early Holocene, ca. 10,680 cal a BP. A shift from carbonate-dominated to organic-rich sediments ca. 5,540 cal a BP corresponds to a transition to wetter climate in the middle Holocene. A rapid increase in diatom biogenic silica concentrations and accumulation rates ca. 2,600 cal a BP signals that the lake had deepened to its modern limnetic state. In LH-6-13, an up-core decrease in rates of accumulation for several sediment variables indicates time-course oligotrophication of the lake through the Holocene. In near-surface sediments, abrupt increases in the accumulation rates of these same variables indicate progressive cultural eutrophication after ca. AD 1900. Comparison of the modern state of Lake Harris to its condition 50-100 years ago provides a measure of the impact of recent cultural eutrophication. Because the pre-disturbance trajectory of this lake was one of oligotrophication, the true impact of cultural eutrophication is even greater than what is inferred from the changes over the past century.

Drought, agricultural adaptation, and sociopolitical collapse in the Maya Lowlands.

Paleoclimate records indicate a series of severe droughts was associated with societal collapse of the Classic Maya during the Terminal Classic period (∼800-950 C.E.). Evidence for drought largely derives from the drier, less populated northern Maya Lowlands but does not explain more pronounced and earlier societal disruption in the relatively humid southern Maya Lowlands. Here we apply hydrogen and carbon isotope compositions of plant wax lipids in two lake sediment cores to assess changes in water availability and land use in both the northern and southern Maya lowlands. We show that relatively more intense drying occurred in the southern lowlands than in the northern lowlands during the Terminal Classic period, consistent with earlier and more persistent societal decline in the south. Our results also indicate a period of substantial drying in the southern Maya Lowlands from ∼200 C.E. to 500 C.E., during the Terminal Preclassic and Early Classic periods. Plant wax carbon isotope records indicate a decline in C4 plants in both lake catchments during the Early Classic period, interpreted to reflect a shift from extensive agriculture to intensive, water-conservative maize cultivation that was motivated by a drying climate. Our results imply that agricultural adaptations developed in response to earlier droughts were initially successful, but failed under the more severe droughts of the Terminal Classic period.

20th century atmospheric deposition and acidification trends in lakes of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA.

We investigated multiple lines of evidence to determine if observed and paleo-reconstructed changes in acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in Sierra Nevada lakes were the result of changes in 20th century atmospheric deposition. Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) (indicator of anthropogenic atmospheric deposition) and biogenic silica and δ(13)C (productivity proxies) in lake sediments, nitrogen and sulfur emission inventories, climate variables, and long-term hydrochemistry records were compared to reconstructed ANC trends in Moat Lake. The initial decline in ANC at Moat Lake occurred between 1920 and 1930, when hydrogen ion deposition was approximately 74 eq ha(-1) yr(-1), and ANC recovered between 1970 and 2005. Reconstructed ANC in Moat Lake was negatively correlated with SCPs and sulfur dioxide emissions (p = 0.031 and p = 0.009). Reconstructed ANC patterns were not correlated with climate, productivity, or nitrogen oxide emissions. Late 20th century recovery of ANC at Moat Lake is supported by increasing ANC and decreasing sulfate in Emerald Lake between 1983 and 2011 (p < 0.0001). We conclude that ANC depletion at Moat and Emerald lakes was principally caused by acid deposition, and recovery in ANC after 1970 can be attributed to the United States Clean Air Act.

Paleoenvironmental history of the West Baray, Angkor (Cambodia).

Angkor (Cambodia) was the seat of the Khmer Empire from the 9th to 15th century AD. The site is noted for its monumental architecture and complex hydro-engineering systems, comprised of canals, moats, embankments, and large reservoirs, known as barays. We infer a 1,000-y, (14)C-dated paleoenvironmental record from study of an approximately 2-m sediment core taken in the largest Khmer reservoir, the West Baray. The baray was utilized and managed from the time of construction in the early 11th century, through the 13th century. During that time, the West Baray received relatively high rates of detrital input. In the 14th century, linear sedimentation rates diminished by an order of magnitude, yielding a condensed section that correlates temporally with episodes of regional monsoon failure during the late 14th and early 15th century, recorded in tree ring records from Vietnam. Our results demonstrate that changes in the water management system were associated with the decline of the Angkorian kingdom during that period. By the 17th century, the West Baray again functioned as a limnetic system. Ecologic and sedimentologic changes over the last millennium, detected in the baray deposits, are attributed to shifts in regional-scale Khmer water management, evolving land use practices in the catchment, and regional climate change.

Abrupt temperature changes in the Western Mediterranean over the past 250,000 years.

A continuous high-resolution Western Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) alkenone record spanning the past 250,000 years shows that abrupt changes were more common at warming than at cooling. During marine isotope stage (MIS) 6, SST oscillated following a stadial-interstadial pattern but at lower intensities and rates of change than in the Dansgaard/Oeschger events of MIS 3. Some of the most prominent events occurred over MISs 5 and 7, after prolonged warm periods of high stability. Climate during the whole period was predominantly maintained in interglacial-interstadial conditions, whereas the duration of stadials was much shorter.