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The shift of mental health care from mental institutions to community-based services has been implemented differentially throughout the EU. However, because a comprehensive overview of the current mental health provision in member states is lacking, it is challenging to compare services across nations. This study investigates the extent of implementation of community-based mental health services within the EU using data collected from the WHO Mental Health Atlas. Results show that, although great cross-country variation exists in the implementation of community-based services, mental hospitals remain the prominent model of care in most countries. A few countries endorsed a balanced care model, with the co-occurrence of community services and mental hospitals. However, missing data, low quality of data and different service definitions hamper the possibility of a thorough analysis of the status on deinstitutionalization. Although policies on the closing and downsizing of mental institutions have been endorsed by the EU, the strong presence of mental hospitals slows down the shift towards community-based mental health care. This study highlights the need for an international consensus on definitions and a harmonization of indicators on mental health services. Together with the commitment of member states to improve the quality of data reporting, leadership must emerge to ensure quality monitoring of mental health-related data, which will help advance research, policies and practices.
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Serviços Comunitários de Saúde Mental , União Europeia , Humanos , Serviços Comunitários de Saúde Mental/organização & administração , Hospitais Psiquiátricos/organização & administração , Política de Saúde , DesinstitucionalizaçãoRESUMO
Background: Differences in survival between patients treated with antipsychotic monotherapy vs. polytherapy are debated. This study aimed to examine the association of antipsychotic polytherapy with 2-year all-cause mortality in a population-based cohort. Methods: Data were retrieved from healthcare databases of four local health units of Lombardy, Italy. Subjects aged 18-79 years who received continuous antipsychotic prescriptions in 2018 were identified. Overall survival among patients with antipsychotic monotherapy vs. polytherapy was compared. A multivariate Cox PH model was used to estimate the association between antipsychotic therapy, or antipsychotic use (continuous vs. non-continuous), and all-cause mortality. Adjustments were made for the presence of metabolic disturbances, total antipsychotic dosage amount (olanzapine equivalent doses), age, and sex. Results: A total of 49,875 subjects receiving at least one prescription of antipsychotics during 2018 were identified. Among the 33,221 patients receiving continuative antipsychotic prescriptions, 1958 (5.9%) experienced death from any cause at two years. Patients with continuous antipsychotic use had a 1.13-point increased mortality risk compared with non-continuous users. Patients treated with antipsychotic polytherapy showed an adjusted mortality risk increased by 17% (95% CI: 2%, 33%) compared to monotherapy. Conclusions: The study highlights the potential risks associated with antipsychotic polypharmacy, emphasizing the importance of optimizing drug prescriptions to improve patient safety and reduce mortality rates in individuals receiving antipsychotic therapy.
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PURPOSE: Despite the evidence of higher effectiveness of psychological interventions for insomnia compared to pharmacological ones, drug prescriptions for insomnia remain frequent. This study has assessed patterns of prescriptions of BZDs for insomnia before and after the delivery of a training in psychological interventions to professionals working in the services of a Department of Mental Health in northern Italy. METHODS: The intervention consisted in two training sessions about psychological interventions for insomnia delivered to professionals of the participating services. The prevalence of users with a prescription of BZDs for insomnia in an index period after the delivery of the training was compared to the prevalence in an index period before the training. RESULTS: Among 727 people assessed for BZDs prescription at pre-intervention, 306 (42.1%, 95% CI 0.39-0.46) had a prescription, and 344 (49.2%, 95% CI 0.45-0.53) had a prescription among 699 people assessed at post-intervention, corresponding to a significant odds ratio of 1.33 to be prescribed with BZDs in the second index period compared to the first one. Psychological interventions were offered to a small group of patients. CONCLUSION: Prescribing attitudes of BZDs for insomnia were not modified after the training and delivery of a psychological intervention in a mental healthcare outpatient setting. Prescribing habits should be addressed more directly in training, and professionals should be more aware of risks of BZDs assumption. The failure in changing drug prescriptions in this study should prompt more real-world studies of the application of evidence-based strategies, particularly in outpatient mental health settings.
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Benzodiazepinas , Serviços de Saúde Mental , Distúrbios do Início e da Manutenção do Sono , Humanos , Distúrbios do Início e da Manutenção do Sono/tratamento farmacológico , Itália , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Benzodiazepinas/uso terapêutico , Padrões de Prática Médica/estatística & dados numéricos , Prescrições de Medicamentos/estatística & dados numéricos , IdosoRESUMO
Background: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is prevalent and disabling among older adults. Standing on its tolerability profile, vortioxetine might be a promising alternative to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) in such a vulnerable population. Methods: We conducted a randomised, assessor- and statistician-blinded, superiority trial including older adults with MDD. The study was conducted between 02/02/2019 and 02/22/2023 in 11 Italian Psychiatric Services. Participants were randomised to vortioxetine or one of the SSRIs, selected according to common practice. Treatment discontinuation due to adverse events after six months was the primary outcome, for which we aimed to detect a 12% difference in favour of vortioxetine. The study was registered in the online repository clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03779789). Findings: The intention-to-treat population included 179 individuals randomised to vortioxetine and 178 to SSRIs. Mean age was 73.7 years (standard deviation 6.1), and 264 participants (69%) were female. Of those on vortioxetine, 78 (44%) discontinued the treatment due to adverse events at six months, compared to 59 (33%) of those on SSRIs (odds ratio 1.56; 95% confidence interval 1.01-2.39). Adjusted and per-protocol analyses confirmed point estimates in favour of SSRIs, but without a significant difference. With the exception of the unadjusted survival analysis showing SSRIs to outperform vortioxetine, secondary outcomes provided results consistent with a lack of substantial safety and tolerability differences between the two arms. Overall, no significant differences emerged in terms of response rates, depressive symptoms and quality of life, while SSRIs outperformed vortioxetine in terms of cognitive performance. Interpretation: As opposed to what was previously hypothesised, vortioxetine did not show a better tolerability profile compared to SSRIs in older adults with MDD in this study. Additionally, hypothetical advantages of vortioxetine on depression-related cognitive symptoms might be questioned. The study's statistical power and highly pragmatic design allow for generalisability to real-world practice. Funding: The study was funded by the Italian Medicines Agency within the "2016 Call for Independent Drug Research".
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In Italy, despite strong community-based mental health services, needs assessment is unsatisfactory. Using the Mental Health Clustering Tool (MHCT) we adopted a multidimensional and non-diagnosis dependent approach to assign mental health services users with similar needs to groups corresponding to resources required for effective care. We tested the MHCT in nine Departments of Mental Health in four Italian regions. After a brief training, 318 professionals assessed 12,938 cases with a diagnosis of schizophrenia, depression, bipolar disorder and personality disorder through the MHCT. 53% of cases were 40-59 years, half were females, 51% had a diagnosis of schizophrenia, 48% of cases were clinically severe. Clusters included different levels of clinical severity and diagnostic groups. The largest cluster was 11 (ongoing recurrent psychosis), with 18.9% of the sample, followed by cluster 3 (non-psychotic disorders of moderate severity). The MHCT could capture a variety of problems of people with mental disorders beyond the traditional psychiatric assessment, therefore depicting service population from a different standpoint. Following a brief training, MHCT assessment proved to be feasible. The automatic allocation of cases made the attribution to clusters easy and acceptable by professionals. To what extent clustering provide a sound base for care planning will be the matter of further research.
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Serviços de Saúde Mental , Transtornos Psicóticos , Esquizofrenia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Projetos Piloto , Saúde MentalRESUMO
Polypharmacy and inappropriate prescriptions in the elderly are widely discussed themes in scientific literature. Although more and more studies showed the safety and feasibility of deprescribing strategies, these are not implemented in clinical practice. In order to measure the attitudes of Italian doctors towards deprescribing and address their awareness, experiences, difficulties in applying these strategies and potential suggestions, we aimed to develop and validate a questionnaire, the Medical Attitudes Towards Deprescribing Questionnaire (MATD-Q). Between November 2017 and October 2018 an e-mail was sent to internists, geriatricians and general practitioners, to invite them to connect to a platform and answer to the questionnaire, consisting in 38 items (with a five level score) and five questions. After 2-3 weeks, a second e-mail was sent for a second completion of the questionnaire. Test-retest reliability was assessed by means of the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The correlations between items were assessed by means of Pearson linear correlation coefficients and Cronbach Alpha was used to assess internal consistency. A total of 77 questionnaires completed twice were collected. By a principal component analysis we defined a smaller set of variables (n = 12), which resulted to be representative of the 38-item questionnaire.The final version of the questionnaire we developed (MATDQ-12), after validation in other cohorts, could be a useful tool to measure the efficacy of educational interventions aimed at improving the attitude of physicians towards deprescribing strategies with the final goal to allow their implementation in clinical practice.
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Desprescrições , Médicos , Humanos , Idoso , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Inquéritos e Questionários , PolimedicaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Italy can be viewed as a laboratory to assess the quality of mental healthcare delivered in a community-oriented system, especially for severe mental disorders, such as personality disorders. Although initiatives based on clinical indicators for assessing the quality of mental healthcare have been developed by transnational-organisations, there is still no widespread practice of measuring the quality of care pathways delivered to patients with severe mental disorders in a community-oriented system, especially using administrative healthcare databases. The aim of the study is to evaluate the quality of care delivered to patients with personality disorders taken-in-care by mental health services of four Italian regions (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Lazio, Sicily). METHODS: A set of thirty-three clinical indicators, concerning accessibility, appropriateness, continuity, and safety of care, was implemented using regional healthcare utilization databases, containing data on mental health treatments and diagnosis, hospital admissions, outpatient interventions and exams and drug prescriptions. RESULTS: 31,688 prevalent patients with personality disorders treated in 2015 were identified, of whom 2,331 newly taken-in-care. One-in-10 patients received a standardized assessment, the treatment discontinuity affected half of the cases. 12.7% of prevalent patients received at least one hospitalization, 10.6% in the newly taken-in-care cohort. 6-out-of-10 patients had contact with community-services within 14 days from hospital discharge. Access to psychotherapy and psychoeducational treatments was low and delivered with a low intensity. The median of psychosocial interventions per person-year was 19.1 and 9.4, respectively, in prevalent and newly taken-in-care cases. Nearly 50% of patients received pharmacological treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare utilization databases were used to systematically evaluate and assess service delivery across regional mental health systems; suggesting that in Italy the public mental health services provide to individuals with personality disorders suboptimal treatment paths.
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BACKGROUND: Mental health (MH) care often exhibits uneven quality and poor coordination of physical and MH needs, especially for patients with severe mental disorders. This study tests a Population Health Management (PHM) approach to identify patients with severe mental disorders using administrative health databases in Italy and evaluate, manage and monitor care pathways and costs. A second objective explores the feasibility of changing the payment system from fee-for-service to a value-based system (e.g., increased care integration, bundled payments) to introduce performance measures and guide improvement in outcomes. METHODS: Since diagnosis alone may poorly predict condition severity and needs, we conducted a retrospective observational study on a 9,019-patient cohort assessed in 2018 (30.5% of 29,570 patients with SMDs from three Italian regions) using the Mental Health Clustering Tool (MHCT), developed in the United Kingdom, to stratify patients according to severity and needs, providing a basis for payment for episode of care. Patients were linked (blinded) with retrospective (2014-2017) physical and MH databases to map resource use, care pathways, and assess costs globally and by cluster. Two regions (3,525 patients) provided data for generalized linear model regression to explore determinants of cost variation among clusters and regions. RESULTS: Substantial heterogeneity was observed in care organization, resource use and costs across and within 3 Italian regions and 20 clusters. Annual mean costs per patient across regions was 3,925, ranging from 3,101 to 6,501 in the three regions. Some 70% of total costs were for MH services and medications, 37% incurred in dedicated mental health facilities, 33% for MH services and medications noted in physical healthcare databases, and 30% for other conditions. Regression analysis showed comorbidities, resident psychiatric services, and consumption noted in physical health databases have considerable impact on total costs. CONCLUSIONS: The current MH care system in Italy lacks evidence of coordination of physical and mental health and matching services to patient needs, with high variation between regions. Using available assessment tools and administrative data, implementation of an episodic approach to funding MH could account for differences in disease phase and physical health for patients with SMDs and introduce performance measurement to improve outcomes and provide oversight.
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Transtornos Mentais , Gestão da Saúde da População , Humanos , Big Data , Estudos Retrospectivos , Transtornos Mentais/diagnóstico , Transtornos Mentais/terapia , Saúde MentalRESUMO
The administrative claims database of the Italian region Lombardy, the first in Europe to be hit by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, was employed to evaluate the impact on healthcare resource utilization following recovery from the second (mainly alpha-related variant) and third (delta-related) infection waves. 317,164 individuals recovered from the infection and became negative after the second wave, 271,180 after the third. Of them, 1571 (0.5%) and 1575 (0.6%) died in the first 6 post-negativization months. In the remaining cases (315,593 after the second wave and 269,605 after the third), hospitalizations, attendances to emergency rooms and outpatient visits were compared with those recorded in the same pre-pandemic time periods in 2019. Dispensation of drugs as well as of imaging, and functional and biochemical diagnostic tests were also compared as additional proxies of the healthcare impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection waves. Following both waves, hospitalizations, attendances at emergency rooms, and outpatient visits were similar in number and rates to the pre-pandemic periods. However, there was an increased dispensation a number of drugs and diagnostic tests, particularly those addressing the cardiorespiratory and blood systems. In a large region such as Lombardy taken as a relevant model because early and severely hit by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the post-COVID burden on healthcare facilities was mildly relevant in cases who recovered from the second and third infection waves regarding such pivotal events as deaths, hospitalizations, and need for emergency room and outpatient visits, but was high regarding the dispensation of some drug classes and types of diagnostic tests.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/terapia , SARS-CoV-2 , Itália/epidemiologia , Atenção à Saúde , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de SaúdeRESUMO
Lombardy, the largest and most densely populated Italian region, was severely hit in February 2020 by the first pandemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 and associated COVID-19. Since then, additional infection waves spread in the region. The aim of this study was to compare the first with the subsequent waves using the administrative database of the Lombardy Welfare directorate. In the time frames of the four 2020-2022 waves, the absolute number of infected cases, sites of management and crude mortality rate associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity were extracted from the database. Infected cases progressively increased in the region by approximately 5-fold in the second versus the first wave, 4-fold in the third and 20-fold during the most recent wave mainly associated with the omicron variant. The crude death decreased from 18.7% in the first to 2% in the second and third wave to reach a 0.3% nadir at the time of the fourth wave. This study confirms that in Lombardy outcomes of public health and health-care relevance such as deaths and number of hospitalizations declined dramatically across the four virus waves and reached very low values in 2022 when, at variance with the first three SARS-CoV-2 waves, the majority of infected cases had been previously vaccinated.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Itália/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The assessment of the quality of care pathways delivered to people with severe mental disorders in a community-based system remains uncommon, especially using healthcare utilization databases. The aim of the study was to evaluate the quality of care provided to people with bipolar disorders taken-in-care by mental health services of four Italian areas (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Lazio, province of Palermo). METHODS: Thirty-six quality indicators were implemented to assess quality of mental health care for patients with bipolar disorders, according to three dimensions (accessibility and appropriateness, continuity, and safety). Data were retrieved from healthcare utilization (HCU) databases, which contain data on mental health treatments, hospital admissions, outpatient interventions, laboratory tests and drug prescriptions. RESULTS: 29,242 prevalent and 752 incident cases taken-in-care by regional mental health services with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder in 2015 were identified. Age-standardized treated prevalence rate was 16.2 (per 10,000 adult residents) and treated incidence rate 1.3. In the year of evaluation, 97% of prevalent cases had ≥ 1 outpatient/day-care contacts and 88% had ≥ 1 psychiatric visits. The median of outpatient/day-care contacts was 9.3 interventions per-year. Psychoeducation was provided to 3.5% of patients and psychotherapy to 11.5%, with low intensity. 63% prevalent cases were treated with antipsychotics, 71.5% with mood stabilizers, 46.6% with antidepressants. Appropriate laboratory tests were conducted in less than one-third of prevalent patients with a prescription of antipsychotics; three quarters of those with a prescription of lithium. Lower proportions were observed for incident patients. In prevalent patients, the Standardized Mortality Ratio was 1.35 (95% CI: 1.26-1.44): 1.18 (1.07-1.29) in females, 1.60 (1.45-1.77) in males. Heterogeneity across areas was considerable in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: We found a meaningful treatment gap in bipolar disorders in Italian mental health services, suggesting that the fact they are entirely community-based does not assure sufficient coverage by itself. Continuity of contacts was sufficient, but intensity of care was low, suggesting the risk of suboptimal treatment and low effectiveness. Care pathways were monitored and evaluated using administrative healthcare databases, adding evidence that such data may contribute to assess the quality of clinical pathways in mental health.
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Antipsicóticos , Transtorno Bipolar , Serviços de Saúde Mental , Adulto , Feminino , Masculino , Humanos , Saúde Mental , Transtorno Bipolar/terapia , LítioRESUMO
Ensuring adequate quality of care to patients with severe mental disorders remains a challenge. The implementation of clinical indicators aimed at assessing the quality of health care pathways delivered is crucial for the improvement of mental health services (MHS). This study aims to evaluate the quality of care delivered to patients who are taken-into-care with depressive disorders by MHS. Thirty-four clinical indicators concerning accessibility, appropriateness, continuity, and safety were estimated using health care utilization databases from four Italian regions (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Lazio, Sicily). A total of 78,924 prevalent patients treated for depressive disorders in 2015 were identified, of whom 15,234 were newly engaged by MHS. During the year of follow-up, access to psychotherapeutic interventions was low, while the intensity was adequate; 5.1% of prevalent patients received at least one hospitalization in a psychiatric ward (GHPW), and 3.3% in the cohort of newly engaged in services. Five-out-of-10 patients had contact with community services within 14 days after GHPW discharge, but less than half of patients were persistent to antidepressant drug therapy. Furthermore, prevalent patients showed an excess of mortality compared to the general population (SMR = 1.35; IC 95%: 1.26-1.44). In conclusion, the quality of health care is not delivered in accordance with evidence-based mental health standards. Evaluation of health interventions are fundamental strategies for improving the quality and equity of health care.
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With the goal to increase knowledge on the healthcare impact of the post-COVID-19 condition we exploited the administrative claims database of Lombardy, the largest Italian region and the first after China to be heavily hit by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in February-May 2020. We chose to employ the dispensation of drugs and diagnostic tests as proxies of the impact of the post-COVID condition in 46,574 cases who recovered from COVID-19 and were negative at PCR testing within June 20, 2020. Data were obtained throughout the 18-month post-negativization period until December 2021 and results on the use of drugs and diagnostic tests were compared with those accrued in the same cases during the pre-COVID period in July-December 2019. After an increase in the first semester after SARS-CoV-2 negativization (July-December 2020), trends in the dispensation of drugs according to the broad ATC classes and of diagnostic tests decreased or remained substantially stable. However, dispensation of drugs for acid related disorders (A02), diabetes (A10), heparins (B01AB), direct oral anticoagulants (B01AP), antipsychotics (N05A), antidepressants (N06A) and for obstructive airways diseases (R03) was still higher than in the pre-COVID period. These findings, based upon drug and diagnostic test dispensation as proxies of the healthcare impact of the post-COVID condition, show that in a substantial proportion of recovered cases the post-COVID condition is active and clinically relevant 18 months after the acute disease. The findings also provide indirect evidence of the body organs and systems more compromised in the post-COVID period.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Síndrome de COVID-19 Pós-Aguda , Atenção à Saúde , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina , Teste para COVID-19RESUMO
The management of a health system is a matter of economics and business administration because of the costs induced by goods and services delivered. Economics teaches us that the positive effects induced by competition in free markets cannot be expected in health care, which is a classic example of market failure from both demand and supply sides. The most sensible key concepts to refer for managing a health system are funding and provision. While the logical solution for the first variable is universal coverage through general taxation, the second one requires a deeper understanding. Integrated care is the modern approach that better supports the choice in favour of the public sector also for service provision. A major threat against this approach is dual practice legally allowed for health professionals, which inevitably raises financial conflicts of interest. An exclusive contract of employment for civil servants should be the sine qua non for providing public services effectively and efficiently. Integrated care is particularly important for long-term chronic illnesses associated with high levels of disability, such as neurodegenerative diseases and mental disorders, where the mix of health and social services needed can be very complex. Nowadays the growing number of community-dwelling patients with multiple physical and mental health needs is the major challenge for the European health systems. This happens also in public health systems, which should provide universal health coverage in principle, and the case of mental disorders is striking. In the light of this theoretical exercise, we strongly believe that a public National Health and Social Service should be the most indicated model for both funding and providing health and social care in modern societies. The big challenge of the common model of European health system here envisaged would be to limit the negative influences of politics and bureaucracy.
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Transtornos Mentais , Saúde Mental , Humanos , Transtornos Mentais/terapia , Atenção à Saúde , Emprego , Setor PúblicoRESUMO
Canned fish is a widely consumed and affordable food whose effect on cancer risk has been little investigated. We studied its effect on risk of upper digestive tract cancers using data from a network of hospital-based case-control studies from Northern Italy providing information about canned fish consumption as a separate item and including a total of 946 patients with oral cavity and pharynx cancer, 304 patients with esophageal cancer, 230 patients with gastric cancer and 3273 controls. Twenty-three percent of patients with cancer of the oral cavity or pharynx and 26% of those with cancer of the stomach consumed ≥1 serving per week of canned fish, compared to 40% and 49% of the respective control group. Among cases of esophageal cancer and controls 22% consumed ≥1 serving per week of canned fish. Odds ratios for ≥1 vs <1 portion per week were 0.79 (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.64-0.97) for cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx, and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.41-0.86) for stomach cancer, whereas there was no inverse association with esophageal cancer. These findings suggest a favorable role of canned fish for selected upper digestive tract cancers.
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Neoplasias Esofágicas , Neoplasias Gastrointestinais , Neoplasias Gástricas , Animais , Fatores de Risco , Neoplasias Gástricas/epidemiologia , Estudos de Casos e ControlesRESUMO
Objectives: To measure the gap between contact and effective coverage of mental healthcare (MHC). Materials and methods: 45,761 newly referred cases of depression, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and personality disorder from four Italian regions were included. A variant of the self-controlled case series method was adopted to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) for the relationship between exposure (i.e., use of different types of MHC such as pharmacotherapy, generic contact with the outpatient services, psychosocial intervention, and psychotherapy) and relapse (emergency hospital admissions for mental illness). Results: 11,500 relapses occurred. Relapse risk was reduced during periods covered by (i) psychotherapy for patients with depression (IRR 0.67; 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.91) and bipolar disorder (0.64; 0.29 to 0.99); (ii) psychosocial interventions for those with depression (0.74; 0.56 to 0.98), schizophrenia (0.83; 0.68 to 0.99), and bipolar disorder (0.55; 0.36 to 0.84), (iii) pharmacotherapy for patients with schizophrenia (0.58; 0.49 to 0.69), and bipolar disorder (0.59; 0.44 to 0.78). Coverage with generic care, in absence of psychosocial/psychotherapeutic interventions, did not affect risk of relapse. Conclusion: This study ascertained the gap between contact and effective coverage of MHC and showed that administrative data can usefully contribute to assess the effectiveness of a mental health system.
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BACKGROUND: The unwillingness to share contacts is one of the least explored aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we report the factors associated with resistance to collaborate on contact tracing, based on the results of a nation-wide survey conducted in Italy in January-March 2021. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The repeated cross-sectional on-line survey was conducted among 7,513 respondents (mean age 45.7, 50.4% women) selected to represent the Italian adult population 18-70 years old. Two groups were defined based on the direct question response expressing (1) unwillingness or (2) willingness to share the names of individuals with whom respondents had contact. We selected 70% of participants (training data set) to produce several multivariable binomial generalized linear models and estimated the proportion of variation explained by the model by McFadden R2, and the model's discriminatory ability by the index of concordance. Then, we have validated the regression models using the remaining 30% of respondents (testing data set), and identified the best performing model by removing the variables based on their impact on the Akaike information criterion and then evaluating the model predictive accuracy. We also performed a sensitivity analysis using principal component analysis. Overall, 5.5% of the respondents indicated that in case of positive SARS-CoV-2 test they would not share contacts. Of note, this percentage varied from 0.8% to 46.5% depending on the answers to other survey questions. From the 139 questions included in the multivariable analysis, the initial model proposed 20 independent factors that were reduced to the 6 factors with only modest changes in the model performance. The 6-variables model demonstrated good performance in the training (c-index 0.85 and McFadden R2 criteria 0.25) and in the testing data set (93.3% accuracy, AUC 0.78, sensitivity 30.4% and specificity 97.4%). The most influential factors related to unwillingness to share contacts were the lack of intention to perform the test in case of contact with a COVID-19 positive individual (OR 5.60, 95% CI 4.14 to 7.58, in a fully adjusted multivariable analysis), disagreement that the government should be allowed to force people into self-isolation (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.84), disagreement with the national vaccination schedule (OR 2.63, 95% CI 1.86 to 3.69), not following to the preventive anti-COVID measures (OR 3.23, 95% CI 1.85 to 5.59), the absence of people in the immediate social environment who have been infected with COVID-19 (1.66, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.21), as well as difficulties in finding or understanding the information about the infection or related recommendations. A limitation of this study is the under-representation of persons not participating in internet-based surveys and some vulnerable groups like homeless people, persons with disabilities or migrants. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis revealed several groups that expressed unwillingness to collaborate on contact tracing. The identified patterns may play a principal role not only in the COVID-19 epidemic but also be important for possible future public health threats, and appropriate interventions for their correction should be developed and ready for the implementation.
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COVID-19 , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Busca de Comunicante , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Lombardy was affected in the early months of 2020 by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic with very high morbidity and mortality. The post-COVID-19 condition and related public health burden are scarcely known. SETTING AND DESIGN: Using the regional population administrative database including all the 48,932 individuals who survived COVID-19 and became polymerase-chain-reaction negative for SARS-CoV-2 by 31 May 2020, incident mortality, rehospitalizations, attendances to hospital emergency room, and outpatient medical visits were evaluated over a mid-term period of 6 months in 20,521 individuals managed at home, 26,016 hospitalized in medical wards, and 1611 in intensive care units (ICUs). These data were also evaluated in the corresponding period of 2019, when the region was not yet affected by the pandemic. Other indicators and proxies of the health-care burden related to the post-COVID condition were also evaluated. MAIN RESULTS: In individuals previously admitted to the ICU and medical wards, rehospitalizations, attendances to hospital emergency rooms, and out-patient medical visits were much more frequent in the 6-month period after SARS-CoV-2 negativization than in the same prepandemic period. Performances of spirometry increased more than 50-fold, chest CT scans 32-fold in ICU-admitted cases and 5.5-fold in non-ICU cases, and electrocardiography 5.6-fold in ICU cases and twofold in non-ICU cases. Use of drugs and biochemical tests increased in all cases. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide a real-life picture of the post-COVID condition and of its effects on the increased consumption of health-care resources, considered proxies of comorbidities.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , PandemiasRESUMO
Fish is among the foods exerting favourable effects on colorectal cancer (CRC), but the possible role of canned fish has been insufficiently investigated. We aimed to investigate the relationship between canned fish consumption and CRC risk. We analysed data from two case−control studies conducted between 1992 and 2010 in several Italian areas, comprising a total of 2419 incident cases and 4723 hospital controls. Canned fish consumption was analysed according to the weekly frequency of consumption as <1 serving per week (s/w) (reference category), 1 < 2 s/w, and ≥2 s/w. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using unconditional logistic regression models, adjusting for several recognised confounding factors. Overall, canned fish consumption was lower among cases than among controls (23.8% vs. 28.6%). An inverse association was found between canned fish consumption and CRC risk with a significant trend in risk (OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.71−0.92 for intermediate consumption and OR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.51−0.85 for the highest one), which was consistent across strata of several covariates. This study is the first to offer a basis of support for canned fish consumption as a component of a healthy diet, and it has relevant public health implications given the high ranking of CRC in incidence and mortality worldwide.