Strong association between reduction of late-stage cancers and reduction of cancer-specific mortality in meta-regression of randomized screening trials across multiple cancer types.

BACKGROUND: Late-stage cancer incidence has been proposed as an early surrogate for mortality in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of cancer screening; however, its validity has not been systematically evaluated across screening RCTs of different cancers. METHODS: We conducted a meta-regression analysis of cancer screening RCTs that reported both late-stage cancer incidence and cancer mortality. Based on a systematic literature review, we included 33 RCTs of screening programs targeting seven cancer types, including lung (n = 12), colorectal (n = 8), breast (n = 5), and prostate (n = 4), among others. We regressed the relative reduction of cancer mortality on the relative reduction of late-stage cancer incidence, inversely weighted for each RCT by the variance of estimated mortality reduction. RESULTS: Across cancer types, the relative reduction of late-stage cancer incidence was linearly associated with the relative reduction of cancer mortality. Specifically, we observed this association for lung (R2 = 0.79 and 0.996 in three recent large trials), breast (R2 = 0.94), prostate (R2 = 0.98), and colorectal cancer (R2 = 0.75 for stage III/IV cancers and 0.93 for stage IV cancers). Trials with a 20% or greater reduction in late-stage cancers were more likely to achieve a significant reduction in cancer mortality. Our results also showed that no reduction of late-stage cancer incidence was associated with no or minimal reduction in cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-regression of historical screening RCTs showed a strong linear association between reductions in late-stage cancer incidence and cancer mortality.

Clinical performance and utility: A microsimulation model to inform the design of screening trials for a multi-cancer early detection test.

OBJECTIVES: Designing cancer screening trials for multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests presents a significant methodology challenge, as natural histories of cell-free DNA-shedding cancers are not yet known. A microsimulation model was developed to project the performance and utility of an MCED test in cancer screening trials. METHODS: Individual natural history of preclinical progression through cancer stages for 23 cancer classes was simulated by a stage-transition model under a broad range of cancer latency parameters. Cancer incidences and stage distributions at clinical presentation in simulated trials were set to match the data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. One or multiple rounds of annual screening using a targeted methylation-based MCED test (GalleriⓇ) was conducted to detect preclinical cancers. Mortality benefit of early detection was simulated by a stage-shift model. RESULTS: In simulated trials, accounting for healthy volunteer effect and varying test sensitivity, positive predictive value in the prevalence screening round reached 48% to 61% in 6 natural history scenarios. After 3 rounds of annual screening, the cumulative proportions of stage I/II cancers increased by approximately 9% to 14%, the incidence of stage IV cancers was reduced by 37% to 46%, the reduction of stages III and IV cancer incidences was 9% to 24%, and the reduction of mortality reached 13% to 16%. Greater reductions of late-stage cancers and cancer mortality were achieved by five rounds of MCED screening. CONCLUSIONS: Simulation results guide trial design and suggest that adding this MCED test to routine screening in the United States may shift cancer detection to earlier stages, and potentially save lives.

Germline Genetic Variants Associated with Somatic TMPRSS2:ERG Fusion Status in Prostate Cancer: A Genome-Wide Association Study.

BACKGROUND: The prostate cancer subtype defined by the presence of TMPRSS2:ERG has been shown to be molecularly and epidemiologically distinct. However, few studies have investigated germline genetic variants associating with TMPRSS2:ERG fusion status. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association study with 396 TMPRSS2:ERG(+) cases, 390 TMPRSS2:ERG(-) cases, and 2,386 cancer-free controls from the Physicians' Health Study (PHS), the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS), and a Seattle-based Fred Hutchinson (FH) Cancer Center Prostate Cancer Study. We applied logistic regression models to test the associations between ∼5 million SNPs with TMPRSS2:ERG fusion status accounting for population stratification. RESULTS: We did not identify genome-wide significant variants comparing the TMPRSS2:ERG(+) to the TMPRSS2:ERG(-) prostate cancer cases in the meta-analysis. When comparing TMPRSS2:ERG(+) prostate cancer cases with controls without prostate cancer, 10 genome-wide significant SNPs on chromosome 17q24.3 were observed in the meta-analysis. When comparing TMPRSS2:ERG(-) prostate cancer cases with controls without prostate cancer, two SNPs on chromosome 8q24.21 in the meta-analysis reached genome-wide significance. CONCLUSIONS: We observed SNPs at several known prostate cancer risk loci (17q24.3, 1q32.1, and 8q24.21) that were differentially and exclusively associated with the risk of developing prostate tumors either with or without the gene fusion. IMPACT: Our findings suggest that tumors with the TMPRSS2:ERG fusion exhibit a different germline genetic etiology compared with fusion negative cases.

Timing and duration of bevacizumab treatment and survival in patients with recurrent ovarian, fallopian tube, and peritoneal cancer: a multi-institution study.

Bevacizumab has demonstrated significant benefit in recurrent ovarian, fallopian tube and peritoneal cancer (OC), but its optimal position within the sequence of systemic therapies remains controversial. Since rebound progression after bevacizumab has been observed in other cancers, and because bevacizumab is incorporated in several regimens used in the recurrent setting, the duration of treatment may impact survival. We sought to identify whether earlier bevacizumab exposure is associated with prolonged bevacizumab therapy and survival by conducting a multi-institution retrospective study of recurrent OC patients treated with bevacizumab from 2004-2014. Multivariate logistic regression identified factors associated with receiving more than six bevacizumab cycles. Overall survival by duration and ordinal sequence of bevacizumab therapy were evaluated using logrank testing and Cox regression. In total, 318 patients were identified. 89.1% had stage III or IV disease; 36% had primary platinum resistance; 40.5% received two or fewer prior chemotherapy regimens. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that primary platinum sensitivity (Odds Ratio (OR) 2.34, p = 0.001) or initiating bevacizumab at the first or second recurrence (OR 2.73, p < 0.001) were independently associated with receiving more than six cycles of bevacizumab. Receiving more cycles of bevacizumab was associated with improved overall survival whether measured from time of diagnosis (logrank p < 0.001), bevacizumab initiation (logrank p < 0.001), or bevacizumab discontinuation (logrank p = 0.017). Waiting one additional recurrence to initiate bevacizumab resulted in a 27% increased hazard of death (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.27, p < 0.001) by multivariate analysis. In conclusion, patients with primary platinum sensitive disease who received fewer prior lines of chemotherapy were able to receive more cycles of bevacizumab, which was associated with improved overall survival. Survival worsened when bevacizumab was initiated later in the ordinal sequence of therapies.

A risk variant for Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma at chr8p23.1 affects enhancer activity and implicates multiple gene targets.

Nineteen genetic susceptibility loci for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and its precursor Barrett's esophagus (BE) have been identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Clinical translation of such discoveries, however, has been hindered by the slow pace of discovery of functional/causal variants and gene targets at these loci. We previously developed a systematic informatics pipeline to prioritize candidate functional variants using functional potential scores, applied the pipeline to select high-scoring BE/EAC risk loci and validated a functional variant at chr19p13.11 (rs10423674). Here, we selected two additional prioritized loci for experimental interrogation: chr3p13/rs1522552 and chr8p23.1/rs55896564. Candidate enhancer regions encompassing these variants were evaluated using luciferase reporter assays in two EAC cell lines. One of the two regions tested exhibited allele-specific enhancer activity - 8p23.1/rs55896564. CRISPR-mediated deletion of the putative enhancer in EAC cell lines correlated with reduced expression of three candidate gene targets: B lymphocyte kinase (BLK), nei like DNA glycosylase 2 (NEIL2) and cathepsin B (CTSB). Expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) mapping in normal esophagus and stomach revealed strong associations between the BE/EAC risk allele at rs55896564 (G) and lower expression of CTSB, a protease gene implicated in epithelial wound repair. These results further support the utility of functional potential scores for GWAS variant prioritization, and provide the first experimental evidence of a functional variant and risk enhancer at the 8p23.1 GWAS locus. Identification of CTSB, BLK and NEIL2 as candidate gene targets suggests that altered expression of these genes may underlie the genetic risk association at 8p23.1 with BE/EAC.

Methylation Subtypes of Primary Prostate Cancer Predict Poor Prognosis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with prostate cancer experience heterogeneous outcomes after radical prostatectomy. Genomic studies including The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) have reported molecular signatures of prostate cancer, but few studies have assessed the prognostic effects of DNA methylation profiles. METHODS: We conducted the largest methylome subtyping analysis for primary prostate tumors to date, using methylome data from three patient populations: TCGA, a prostate cancer cohort study conducted at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (FH; Seattle, WA), and the Canadian International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) cohort. Four subtypes were detected in the TCGA dataset, then independently assigned to FH and ICGC cohort data. The identified methylation subtypes were assessed for association with cancer prognosis in the above three patient populations. RESULTS: Using a set of hypermethylated CpG sites, four methylation subtypes were identified in TCGA. Compared with subtype 1, subtype 4 had an HR of 2.09 (P = 0.029) for biochemical recurrence (BCR) in TCGA patients. HRs of 2.76 (P = 0.002) for recurrence and 9.73 (P = 0.002) for metastatic-lethal (metastasis or prostate cancer-specific death) outcomes were observed in the FH cohort. A similar pattern of association was noted in the Canadian ICGC cohort, though HRs were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: A hypermethylated subtype was associated with an increased hazard of recurrence and mortality in three studies with prostate tumor methylome data. Further molecular work is needed to understand the effect of methylation subtypes on cancer prognosis. IMPACT: This study identified a DNA methylation subtype that was associated with worse prostate cancer prognosis after radical prostatectomy.

A multiple-testing procedure for high-dimensional mediation hypotheses.

Mediation analysis is of rising interest in epidemiology and clinical trials. Among existing methods, the joint significance (JS) test yields an overly conservative type I error rate and low power, particularly for high-dimensional mediation hypotheses. In this article we develop a multiple-testing procedure that accurately controls the family-wise error rate (FWER) and the false discovery rate (FDR) when testing high-dimensional mediation hypotheses. The core of our procedure is based on estimating the proportions of component null hypotheses and the underlying mixture null distribution of p-values. Theoretical developments and simulation experiments prove that the proposed procedure effectively controls FWER and FDR. Two mediation analyses on DNA methylation and cancer research are presented: assessing the mediation role of DNA methylation in genLetic regulation of gene expression in primary prostate cancer samples; exploring the possibility of DNA methylation mediating the effect of exercise on prostate cancer progression. Results of data examples include wellL-behaved quantile-quantile plots and improved power to detect novel mediation relationships. An R package HDMT implementing the proposed procedure is freely accessible in CRAN.

Prioritization and functional analysis of GWAS risk loci for Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified ~20 genetic susceptibility loci for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), and its precursor, Barrett's esophagus (BE). Despite such advances, functional/causal variants and gene targets at these loci remain undefined, hindering clinical translation. A key challenge is that most causal variants map to non-coding regulatory regions such as enhancers, and typically, numerous potential candidate variants at GWAS loci require testing. We developed a systematic informatics pipeline for prioritizing candidate functional variants via integrative functional potential scores (FPS) consolidated from multi-omics annotations, and used this pipeline to identify two high-scoring variants for experimental interrogation: chr9q22.32/rs11789015 and chr19p13.11/rs10423674. Minimal candidate enhancer regions spanning these variants were evaluated using luciferase reporter assays in two EAC cell lines. One of the two variants tested (rs10423674) exhibited allele-specific enhancer activity. CRISPR-mediated deletion of the putative enhancer region in EAC cell lines correlated with reduced expression of two genes-CREB-regulated transcription coactivator 1 (CRTC1) and Cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP); expression of five other genes remained unchanged (CRLF1, KLHL26, TMEM59L, UBA52, RFXANK). Expression quantitative trait locus mapping indicated that rs10423674 genotype correlated with CRTC1 and COMP expression in normal esophagus. This study represents the first experimental effort to bridge GWAS associations to biology in BE/EAC and supports the utility of FPS to guide variant prioritization. Our findings reveal a functional variant and candidate risk enhancer at chr19p13.11 and implicate CRTC1 and COMP as putative gene targets, suggesting that altered expression of these genes may underlie the BE/EAC risk association.

Genetic variants associated with circulating C-reactive protein levels and colorectal cancer survival: Sex-specific and lifestyle factors specific associations.

Elevated blood levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) have been linked to colorectal cancer (CRC) survival. We evaluated genetic variants associated with CRP levels and their interactions with sex and lifestyle factors in association with CRC-specific mortality. Our study included 16 142 CRC cases from the International Survival Analysis in Colorectal Cancer Consortium. We identified 618 common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with CRP levels from the NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between SNPs and CRC-specific mortality adjusting for age, sex, genotyping platform/study and principal components. We investigated their interactions with sex and lifestyle factors using likelihood ratio tests. Of 5472 (33.9%) deaths accrued over up to 10 years of follow-up, 3547 (64.8%) were due to CRC. No variants were associated with CRC-specific mortality after multiple comparison correction. We observed strong evidence of interaction between variant rs1933736 at FRK gene and sex in relation to CRC-specific mortality (corrected Pinteraction  = .0004); women had higher CRC-specific mortality associated with the minor allele (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04-1.19) whereas an inverse association was observed for men (HR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.82-0.94). There was no evidence of interactions between CRP-associated SNPs and alcohol, obesity or smoking. Our study observed a significant interaction between sex and a CRP-associated variant in relation to CRC-specific mortality. Future replication of this association and functional annotation of the variant are needed.

Pembrolizumab with low-dose carboplatin for recurrent platinum-resistant ovarian, fallopian tube, and primary peritoneal cancer: survival and immune correlates.

BACKGROUND: Anti-programmed death 1 (PD1)/programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) therapies have shown modest activity as monotherapy in recurrent ovarian cancer. Platinum chemotherapies induce T-cell proliferation and enhance tumor recognition. We assessed activity and safety of pembrolizumab with carboplatin in recurrent platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This phase I/II, single-arm clinical trial studied concurrent carboplatin and pembrolizumab in recurrent platinum-resistant ovarian, fallopian tube, and primary peritoneal cancer. Primary platinum refractory patients were excluded. Patients were treated after progression on subsequent non-platinum systemic therapy after becoming platinum resistant or refractory. Pembrolizumab 200 mg was given on day 1 and carboplatin area under the curve 2 on days 8 and 15 of a 3-week cycle until progression. Imaging was assessed by blinded independent review. PD-L1 expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry. Flow cytometry on peripheral blood mononuclear cells was performed for CD3, CD4, CD8, PD1, CTLA4 and Ki67. RESULTS: The most common treatment-related adverse events were lymphopenia (18%) and anemia (9%) with most being grade 1 or 2 (93%). Of 29 patients treated, 23 patients were evaluable for best objective response: 10.3% (95% CI 2.2 to 27.4) had partial response (PR), 51.7% (95% CI 32.5 to 70.6) had stable disease (SD). 56.5% of patients had decreases in target lesions from baseline. All PD-L1-positive patients achieved PR (3/7, 42.8%) or SD (4/7, 57.2%). Median progression-free survival was 4.63 months (95% CI 4.3 to 4.96). Median OS was 11.3 months (95% CI 6.094 to 16.506). Peripheral CD8+PD1+Ki67+ T cells expanded after 3 (p=0.0015) and 5 (p=0.0023) cycles. CTLA4+PD1+CD8+ T cells decreased through the course of treatment up to the 12th cycle (p=0.004). When stratified by ratio of peripheral CD8+PD1+Ki67+ T cells to tumor burden at baseline, patients with a ratio ≥0.0375 who had a significantly longer median OS of 18.37 months compared with those with a ratio <0.0375 who had a median OS of 8.72 months (p=0.0099). No survival advantage was seen with stratification by tumor burden alone (p=0.24) or by CD8+PD1+Ki67+ T cells alone (p=0.53). CONCLUSIONS: Pembrolizumab with carboplatin was well-tolerated and active in recurrent platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. A ratio of peripheral T-cell exhaustion to radiographic tumor burden may identify patients more likely to benefit from this chemoimmunotherapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03029598.

Association between post-treatment circulating biomarkers of inflammation and survival among stage II-III colorectal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Biomarker studies on colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis are limited to pre-diagnostic or pre-operative measures. Post-treatment biomarkers are not well understood for their associations with CRC survival. METHODS: We included 306 eligible incident stage II-III CRC cases from the population-based Seattle Colon Cancer Family Registry. Concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), adiponectin, and leptin were measured using post-treatment plasma samples. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and CRC-specific mortality were calculated using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Elevated levels of CRP, IL-6, MCP-1, and adiponectin were significantly associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality within 10 years post blood draw with HRs (95% CI) of 1.32 (1.10-2.59), 2.72 (2.07-3.56), 1.97 (1.18-3.28) and 1.71 (1.14-2.58), respectively. IL-6 and adiponectin had a dose-response effect (Ptrend < 0.0001). For CRC-specific mortality, we observed positive associations for CRP (HR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.2-2.56), IL-6 (HR = 5.02, 95% CI: 2.92-8.59), MCP-1 (HR = 3.78, 95% CI: 1.41-10.08), and adiponectin (HR = 3.16, 95% CI: 1.27-7.86), and inverse association for leptin (HR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.29-0.68) within the first year of blood draw, whereas the association for IL-6 remained statistically significant over 10 years. CONCLUSION: Our results support the role of chronic inflammation in CRC progression and suggested several post-treatment inflammatory biomarkers, particularly IL-6, are promising prognostic markers for stage II-III CRC patients.

Genetically Predicted Circulating C-Reactive Protein Concentration and Colorectal Cancer Survival: A Mendelian Randomization Consortium Study.

BACKGROUND: A positive association between circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) and colorectal cancer survival was reported in observational studies, which are susceptible to unmeasured confounding and reverse causality. We used a Mendelian randomization approach to evaluate the association between genetically predicted CRP concentrations and colorectal cancer-specific survival. METHODS: We used individual-level data for 16,918 eligible colorectal cancer cases of European ancestry from 15 studies within the International Survival Analysis of Colorectal Cancer Consortium. We calculated a genetic-risk score based on 52 CRP-associated genetic variants identified from genome-wide association studies. Because of the non-collapsibility of hazard ratios from Cox proportional hazards models, we used the additive hazards model to calculate hazard differences (HD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between genetically predicted CRP concentrations and colorectal cancer-specific survival, overall and by stage at diagnosis and tumor location. Analyses were adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex, body mass index, genotyping platform, study, and principal components. RESULTS: Of the 5,395 (32%) deaths accrued over up to 10 years of follow-up, 3,808 (23%) were due to colorectal cancer. Genetically predicted CRP concentration was not associated with colorectal cancer-specific survival (HD, -1.15; 95% CI, -2.76 to 0.47 per 100,000 person-years; P = 0.16). Similarly, no associations were observed in subgroup analyses by stage at diagnosis or tumor location. CONCLUSIONS: Despite adequate power to detect moderate associations, our results did not support a causal effect of circulating CRP concentrations on colorectal cancer-specific survival. IMPACT: Future research evaluating genetically determined levels of other circulating inflammatory biomarkers (i.e., IL6) with colorectal cancer survival outcomes is needed.

Rare Germline Variants in ATM Predispose to Prostate Cancer: A PRACTICAL Consortium Study.

BACKGROUND: Germline ATM mutations are suggested to contribute to predisposition to prostate cancer (PrCa). Previous studies have had inadequate power to estimate variant effect sizes. OBJECTIVE: To precisely estimate the contribution of germline ATM mutations to PrCa risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We analysed next-generation sequencing data from 13 PRACTICAL study groups comprising 5560 cases and 3353 controls of European ancestry. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Variant Call Format files were harmonised, annotated for rare ATM variants, and classified as tier 1 (likely pathogenic) or tier 2 (potentially deleterious). Associations with overall PrCa risk and clinical subtypes were estimated. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: PrCa risk was higher in carriers of a tier 1 germline ATM variant, with an overall odds ratio (OR) of 4.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0-9.5). There was also evidence that PrCa cases with younger age at diagnosis (<65 yr) had elevated tier 1 variant frequencies (pdifference = 0.04). Tier 2 variants were also associated with PrCa risk, with an OR of 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1-1.7). CONCLUSIONS: Carriers of pathogenic ATM variants have an elevated risk of developing PrCa and are at an increased risk for earlier-onset disease presentation. These results provide information for counselling of men and their families. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this study, we estimated that men who inherit a likely pathogenic mutation in the ATM gene had an approximately a fourfold risk of developing prostate cancer. In addition, they are likely to develop the disease earlier.

Combined Associations of a Polygenic Risk Score and Classical Risk Factors With Breast Cancer Risk.

We evaluated the joint associations between a new 313-variant PRS (PRS313) and questionnaire-based breast cancer risk factors for women of European ancestry, using 72 284 cases and 80 354 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Interactions were evaluated using standard logistic regression and a newly developed case-only method for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen receptor status. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not find evidence that per-standard deviation PRS313 odds ratio differed across strata defined by individual risk factors. Goodness-of-fit tests did not reject the assumption of a multiplicative model between PRS313 and each risk factor. Variation in projected absolute lifetime risk of breast cancer associated with classical risk factors was greater for women with higher genetic risk (PRS313 and family history) and, on average, 17.5% higher in the highest vs lowest deciles of genetic risk. These findings have implications for risk prevention for women at increased risk of breast cancer.

Germline variation in the insulin-like growth factor pathway and risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and its precursor, Barrett's esophagus (BE), have uncovered significant genetic components of risk, but most heritability remains unexplained. Targeted assessment of genetic variation in biologically relevant pathways using novel analytical approaches may identify missed susceptibility signals. Central obesity, a key BE/EAC risk factor, is linked to systemic inflammation, altered hormonal signaling and insulin-like growth factor (IGF) axis dysfunction. Here, we assessed IGF-related genetic variation and risk of BE and EAC. Principal component analysis was employed to evaluate pathway-level and gene-level associations with BE/EAC, using genotypes for 270 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in or near 12 IGF-related genes, ascertained from 3295 BE cases, 2515 EAC cases and 3207 controls in the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON) GWAS. Gene-level signals were assessed using Multi-marker Analysis of GenoMic Annotation (MAGMA) and SNP summary statistics from BEACON and an expanded GWAS meta-analysis (6167 BE cases, 4112 EAC cases, 17 159 controls). Global variation in the IGF pathway was associated with risk of BE (P = 0.0015). Gene-level associations with BE were observed for GHR (growth hormone receptor; P = 0.00046, false discovery rate q = 0.0056) and IGF1R (IGF1 receptor; P = 0.0090, q = 0.0542). These gene-level signals remained significant at q < 0.1 when assessed using data from the largest available BE/EAC GWAS meta-analysis. No significant associations were observed for EAC. This study represents the most comprehensive evaluation to date of inherited genetic variation in the IGF pathway and BE/EAC risk, providing novel evidence that variation in two genes encoding cell-surface receptors, GHR and IGF1R, may influence risk of BE.

DNA methylation and cis-regulation of gene expression by prostate cancer risk SNPs.

Genome-wide association studies have identified more than 100 SNPs that increase the risk of prostate cancer (PrCa). We identify and compare expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) and CpG methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTLs) among 147 established PrCa risk SNPs in primary prostate tumors (n = 355 from a Seattle-based study and n = 495 from The Cancer Genome Atlas, TCGA) and tumor-adjacent, histologically benign samples (n = 471 from a Mayo Clinic study). The role of DNA methylation in eQTL regulation of gene expression was investigated by data triangulation using several causal inference approaches, including a proposed adaptation of the Causal Inference Test (CIT) for causal direction. Comparing eQTLs between tumors and benign samples, we show that 98 of the 147 risk SNPs were identified as eQTLs in the tumor-adjacent benign samples, and almost all 34 eQTL identified in tumor sets were also eQTLs in the benign samples. Three lines of results support the causal role of DNA methylation. First, nearly 100 of the 147 risk SNPs were identified as meQTLs in one tumor set, and almost all eQTLs in tumors were meQTLs. Second, the loss of eQTLs in tumors relative to benign samples was associated with altered DNA methylation. Third, among risk SNPs identified as both eQTLs and meQTLs, mediation analyses suggest that over two-thirds have evidence of a causal role for DNA methylation, mostly mediating genetic influence on gene expression. In summary, we provide a comprehensive catalog of eQTLs, meQTLs and putative cancer genes for known PrCa risk SNPs. We observe that a substantial portion of germline eQTL regulatory mechanisms are maintained in the tumor development, despite somatic alterations in tumor genome. Finally, our mediation analyses illuminate the likely intermediary role of CpG methylation in eQTL regulation of gene expression.

Copy number alterations are associated with metastatic-lethal progression in prostate cancer.

BACKGROUNDS: Aside from Gleason score few factors accurately identify the subset of prostate cancer (PCa) patients at high risk for metastatic progression. We hypothesized that copy number alterations (CNAs), assessed using CpG methylation probes on Illumina Infinium® Human Methylation450 (HM450K) BeadChip arrays, could identify primary prostate tumors with potential to develop metastatic progression. METHODS: Epigenome-wide DNA methylation profiling was performed in surgically resected primary tumor tissues from two cohorts of PCa patients with clinically localized disease who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) as primary therapy and were followed prospectively for at least 5 years: (1) a Fred Hutchinson (FH) Cancer Research Center-based cohort (n = 323 patients); and (2) an Eastern Virginia (EV) Medical School-based cohort (n = 78 patients). CNAs were identified using the R package ChAMP. Metastasis was confirmed by positive bone scan, MRI, CT or biopsy, and death certificates confirmed cause of death. RESULTS: We detected 15 recurrent CNAs were associated with metastasis in the FH cohort and replicated in the EV cohort (p < 0.05) without adjusting for Gleason score in the model. Eleven of the recurrent CNAs were associated with metastatic progression in the FH cohort and validated in the EV cohort (p < 0.05) when adjusting for Gleason score. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that CNAs can be reliably detected from HM450K-based DNA methylation data. There are 11 recurrent CNAs showing association with metastatic-lethal events following RP and improving prediction over Gleason score. Genes affected by these CNAs may functionally relate to tumor aggressiveness and metastatic progression.

A four-gene transcript score to predict metastatic-lethal progression in men treated for localized prostate cancer: Development and validation studies.

BACKGROUND: Molecular studies have tried to address the unmet need for prognostic biomarkers in prostate cancer (PCa). Some gene expression tests improve upon clinical factors for prediction of outcomes, but additional tools for accurate prediction of tumor aggressiveness are needed. METHODS: Based on a previously published panel of 23 gene transcripts that distinguished patients with metastatic progression, we constructed a prediction model using independent training and testing datasets. Using the validated messenger RNAs and Gleason score (GS), we performed model selection in the training set to define a final locked model to classify patients who developed metastatic-lethal events from those who remained recurrence-free. In an independent testing dataset, we compared our locked model to established clinical prognostic factors and utilized Kaplan-Meier curves and receiver operating characteristic analyses to evaluate the model's performance. RESULTS: Thirteen of 23 previously identified gene transcripts that stratified patients with aggressive PCa were validated in the training dataset. These biomarkers plus GS were used to develop a four-gene (CST2, FBLN1, TNFRSF19, and ZNF704) transcript (4GT) score that was significantly higher in patients who progressed to metastatic-lethal events compared to those without recurrence in the testing dataset (P = 5.7 × 10-11 ). The 4GT score provided higher prediction accuracy (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69-0.83; partial area under the ROC curve [pAUC] = 0.008) than GS alone (AUC = 0.63; 95% CI = 0.56-0.70; pAUC = 0.002), and it improved risk stratification in subgroups defined by a combination of clinicopathological features (ie, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment-Surgery). CONCLUSION: Our validated 4GT score has prognostic value for metastatic-lethal progression in men treated for localized PCa and warrants further evaluation for its clinical utility.

Interactive decision support for esophageal adenocarcinoma screening and surveillance.

BACKGROUND: A key barrier to controlling esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is identifying those most likely to benefit from screening and surveillance. We aimed to develop an online educational tool, termed IC-RISC™, for providers and patients to estimate more precisely their absolute risk of developing EAC, interpret this estimate in the context of risk of dying from other causes, and aid in decision-making. RESULTS: U.S. incidence and mortality data and published relative risk estimates from observational studies and clinical trials were used to calculate absolute risk of EAC over 10 years adjusting for competing risks. These input parameters varied depending on presence of the key precursor, Barrett's esophagus. The open source application works across common devices to gather risk factor data and graphically illustrate estimated risk on a single page. Changes to input data are immediately reflected in the colored graphs. We used the calculator to compare the risk distribution between EAC cases and controls from six population-based studies to gain insight into the discrimination metrics of current practice guidelines for screening, observing that current guidelines sacrifice a significant amount of specificity to identify 78-86% of eventual cases in the US population. CONCLUSIONS: This educational tool provides a simple and rapid means to graphically communicate risk of EAC in the context of other health risks, facilitates "what-if" scenarios regarding potential preventative actions, and can inform discussions regarding screening, surveillance and treatment options. Its generic architecture lends itself to being easily extended to other cancers with distinct pathways and/or intermediate stages, such as hepatocellular cancer. IC-RISC™ extends current qualitative clinical practice guidelines into a quantitative assessment, which brings the possibility of preventative actions being offered to persons not currently targeted for screening and, conversely, reducing unnecessary procedures in those at low risk. Prospective validation and application to existing well-characterized cohort studies are needed.

Case-only trees and random forests for exploring genotype-specific treatment effects in randomized clinical trials with dichotomous endpoints.

Discovering gene-treatment interactions in clinical trials is of rising interest in the era of precision medicine. Nonparametric statistical learning methods such as trees and random forests are useful tools for building prediction rules. In this article, we introduce trees and random forests to the recently proposed case-only approach for discovering gene-treatment interactions and estimating marker-specific treatment effects for a dichotomous trial endpoints. The motivational example is a case-control genetic association study in the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT), which tested the hypothesis whether finasteride can prevent prostate cancer. We compare this novel approach to the interaction tree method previously proposed. Because of the modeling simplicity - directly targeting at interaction - and the statistical efficiency of the case-only approach, case-only trees and random forests yield more accurate prediction of heterogeneous treatment effects and better measure of variable importance, relative to the interaction tree method which uses data from both cases and controls. Application of the proposed case-only trees and random forests to the PCPT study yielded a discovery of genotypes that may influence the prevention effect of finasteride.