Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke Across the US From 1990 to 2019.

Importance: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the US. Accurate and updated measures of stroke burden are needed to guide public health policies. Objective: To present burden estimates of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in the US in 2019 and describe trends from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and geographic location. Design, Setting, and Participants: An in-depth cross-sectional analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study was conducted. The setting included the time period of 1990 to 2019 in the US. The study encompassed estimates for various types of strokes, including all strokes, ischemic strokes, intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs), and subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs). The 2019 Global Burden of Disease results were released on October 20, 2020. Exposures: In this study, no particular exposure was specifically targeted. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary focus of this analysis centered on both overall and age-standardized estimates, stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs per 100 000 individuals. Results: In 2019, the US recorded 7.09 million prevalent strokes (4.07 million women [57.4%]; 3.02 million men [42.6%]), with 5.87 million being ischemic strokes (82.7%). Prevalence also included 0.66 million ICHs and 0.85 million SAHs. Although the absolute numbers of stroke cases, mortality, and DALYs surged from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates either declined or remained steady. Notably, hemorrhagic strokes manifested a substantial increase, especially in mortality, compared with ischemic strokes (incidence of ischemic stroke increased by 13% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 14.2%-11.9%]; incidence of ICH increased by 39.8% [95% UI, 38.9%-39.7%]; incidence of SAH increased by 50.9% [95% UI, 49.2%-52.6%]). The downturn in stroke mortality plateaued in the recent decade. There was a discernible heterogeneity in stroke burden trends, with older adults (50-74 years) experiencing a decrease in incidence in coastal areas (decreases up to 3.9% in Vermont), in contrast to an uptick observed in younger demographics (15-49 years) in the South and Midwest US (with increases up to 8.4% in Minnesota). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, the declining age-standardized stroke rates over the past 3 decades suggest progress in managing stroke-related outcomes. However, the increasing absolute burden of stroke, coupled with a notable rise in hemorrhagic stroke, suggests an evolving and substantial public health challenge in the US. Moreover, the significant disparities in stroke burden trends across different age groups and geographic locations underscore the necessity for region- and demography-specific interventions and policies to effectively mitigate the multifaceted and escalating burden of stroke in the country.

Health effects associated with chewing tobacco: a Burden of Proof study.

Chewing tobacco use poses serious health risks; yet it has not received as much attention as other tobacco-related products. This study synthesizes existing evidence regarding the health impacts of chewing tobacco while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of chewing tobacco and seven health outcomes, drawing on 103 studies published from 1970 to 2023. We use a Burden of Proof meta-analysis to generate conservative risk estimates and find weak-to-moderate evidence that tobacco chewers have an increased risk of stroke, lip and oral cavity cancer, esophageal cancer, nasopharynx cancer, other pharynx cancer, and laryngeal cancer. We additionally find insufficient evidence of an association between chewing tobacco and ischemic heart disease. Our findings highlight a need for policy makers, researchers, and communities at risk to devote greater attention to chewing tobacco by both advancing tobacco control efforts and investing in strengthening the existing evidence base.

Health effects associated with exposure to secondhand smoke: a Burden of Proof study.

Despite a gradual decline in smoking rates over time, exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) continues to cause harm to nonsmokers, who are disproportionately children and women living in low- and middle-income countries. We comprehensively reviewed the literature published by July 2022 concerning the adverse impacts of SHS exposure on nine health outcomes. Following, we quantified each exposure-response association accounting for various sources of uncertainty and evaluated the strength of the evidence supporting our analyses using the Burden of Proof Risk Function methodology. We found all nine health outcomes to be associated with SHS exposure. We conservatively estimated that SHS increases the risk of ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes and lung cancer by at least around 8%, 5%, 1% and 1%, respectively, with the evidence supporting these harmful associations rated as weak (two stars). The evidence supporting the harmful associations between SHS and otitis media, asthma, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was weaker (one star). Despite the weak underlying evidence for these associations, our results reinforce the harmful effects of SHS on health and the need to prioritize advancing efforts to reduce active and passive smoking through a combination of public health policies and education initiatives.

Hearing Loss Prevalence, Years Lived With Disability, and Hearing Aid Use in the United States From 1990 to 2019: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study.

OBJECTIVES: This article describes key data sources and methods used to estimate hearing loss in the United States, in the Global Burden of Disease study. Then, trends in hearing loss are described for 2019, including temporal trends from 1990 to 2019, changing prevalence over age, severity patterns, and utilization of hearing aids. DESIGN: We utilized population-representative surveys from the United States to estimate hearing loss prevalence for the Global Burden of Disease study. A key input data source in modeled estimates are the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), years 1988 to 2010. We ran hierarchical severity-specific models to estimate hearing loss prevalence. We then scaled severity-specific models to sum to total hearing impairment prevalence, adjusted estimates for hearing aid coverage, and split estimates by etiology and tinnitus status. We computed years lived with disability (YLDs), which quantifies the amount of health loss associated with a condition depending on severity and creates a common metric to compare the burden of disparate diseases. This was done by multiplying the prevalence of severity-specific hearing loss by corresponding disability weights, with additional weighting for tinnitus comorbidity. RESULTS: An estimated 72.88 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 68.53 to 77.30) people in the United States had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for 22.2% (20.9 to 23.6) of the total population. Hearing loss was responsible for 2.24 million (1.56 to 3.11) YLDs (3.6% (2.8 to 4.7) of total US YLDs). Age-standardized prevalence was higher in males (17.7% [16.7 to 18.8]) compared with females (11.9%, [11.2 to 12.5]). While most cases of hearing loss were mild (64.3%, 95% UI 61.0 to 67.6), disability was concentrated in cases that were moderate or more severe. The all-age prevalence of hearing loss in the United States was 28.1% (25.7 to 30.8) higher in 2019 than in 1990, despite stable age-standardized prevalence. An estimated 9.7% (8.6 to 11.0) of individuals with mild to profound hearing loss utilized a hearing aid, while 32.5% (31.9 to 33.2) of individuals with hearing loss experienced tinnitus. Occupational noise exposure was responsible for 11.2% (10.2 to 12.4) of hearing loss YLDs. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate large burden of hearing loss in the United States, with an estimated 1 in 5 people experiencing this condition. While many cases of hearing loss in the United States were mild, growing prevalence, low usage of hearing aids, and aging populations indicate the rising impact of this condition in future years and the increasing importance of domestic access to hearing healthcare services. Large-scale audiometric surveys such as NHANES are needed to regularly assess hearing loss burden and access to healthcare, improving our understanding of who is impacted by hearing loss and what groups are most amenable to intervention.

Socioeconomic inequalities in physical, psychological, and cognitive multimorbidity in middle-aged and older adults in 33 countries: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Many physical, psychological, and cognitive disorders are highly clustered among populations with low socioeconomic status. However, the extent to which socioeconomic status is associated with different combinations of these disorders is unclear, particularly outside high-income countries. We aimed to evaluate these associations in 33 countries including high-income countries, upper-middle-income countries, and one lower-middle-income country. METHODS: This cross-sectional multi-region study pooled individual-level data from seven studies on ageing between 2017 and 2020. Education and total household wealth were used to measure socioeconomic status. Physical disorder was defined as having one or more of the self-reported chronic conditions. Psychological and cognitive disorders were measured by study-specific instruments. The outcome included eight categories: no disorders, physical disorder, psychological disorder, cognitive disorder, and their four combinations. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for the associations of socioeconomic status with these outcomes separately for high-income countries, upper-middle-income countries, and the lower-middle-income country. FINDINGS: Among 167 376 individuals aged 45 years and older, the prevalence of multimorbidity was 24·5% in high-income countries, 33·9% in upper-middle-income countries, and 8·1% in the lower-middle-income country (India). Lower levels of education, household wealth, and a combined socioeconomic status score were strongly associated with physical, psychological, and cognitive multimorbidity in high-income countries and upper-middle-income countries, with ORs (low vs high socioeconomic status) for physical-psychological-cognitive multimorbidity of 12·36 (95% CI 10·29-14·85; p<0·0001) in high-income countries and of 23·84 (18·85-30·14; p<0·0001) in upper-middle-income countries. The associations in the lower-middle-income country were mixed. Participants with both a low level of education and low household wealth had the highest odds of multimorbidity (eg, OR for physical-psychological-cognitive multimorbidity 21·21 [15·95-28·19; p<0·0001] in high-income countries, 37·07 [25·66-53·56; p<0·0001] in upper-middle-income countries, and 54·96 [7·66-394·38; p<0·0001] in the lower-middle-income country). INTERPRETATION: In study populations from high-income countries, upper-middle-income countries, and the lower-middle-income country, the odds of multimorbidity, which included physical, psychological, and cognitive disorders, were more than ten times greater in individuals with low socioeconomic status. Equity-oriented policies and programmes that reduce social inequalities in multimorbidity are urgently needed to achieve Sustainable Development Goals. FUNDING: Zhejiang University, Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, National Institute on Aging, and Academy of Finland. TRANSLATION: For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Sleep Problems Associate With Multimorbidity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Objectives: To summarize the evidence on the association between sleep problems and multimorbidity. Methods: Six electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, VIP, and Wan fang) were searched to identify observational studies on the association between sleep problems and multimorbidity. A random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for multimorbidity. Results: A total of 17 observational studies of 133,575 participants were included. Sleep problems included abnormal sleep duration, insomnia, snoring, poor sleep quality, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and restless legs syndrome (RLS). The pooled ORs (95% CIs) for multimorbidity were 1.49 (1.24-1.80) of short sleep duration, 1.21 (1.11-1.44) of long sleep duration and 2.53 (1.85-3.46) for insomnia. The association of other sleep problems with multimorbidity was narratively summarized due to limited number of comparable studies. Conclusion: Abnormal sleep duration and insomnia are associated with higher odds of multimorbidity, while the evidence on association of snoring, poor sleep quality, obstructive sleep apnea and restless legs syndrome with multimorbidity remains inconclusive. Interventions targeting sleep problems should be delivered for better management of multimorbidity.

Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes. METHODS: Data disaggregated by US state were extracted from public databases, including COVID-19 infection and mortality estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database; Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state gross domestic product (GDP); Federal Reserve economic data on employment rates; National Center for Education Statistics data on student standardised test scores; and US Census Bureau data on race and ethnicity by state. We standardised infection rates for population density and death rates for age and the prevalence of major comorbidities to facilitate comparison of states' successes in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. We regressed these health outcomes on prepandemic state characteristics (such as educational attainment and health spending per capita), policies adopted by states during the pandemic (such as mask mandates and business closures), and population-level behavioural responses (such as vaccine coverage and mobility). We explored potential mechanisms connecting state-level factors to individual-level behaviours using linear regression. We quantified reductions in state GDP, employment, and student test scores during the pandemic to identify policy and behavioural responses associated with these outcomes and to assess trade-offs between these outcomes and COVID-19 outcomes. Significance was defined as p<0·05. FINDINGS: Standardised cumulative COVID-19 death rates for the period from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022 varied across the USA (national rate 372 deaths per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 364-379]), with the lowest standardised rates in Hawaii (147 deaths per 100 000 [127-196]) and New Hampshire (215 per 100 000 [183-271]) and the highest in Arizona (581 per 100 000 [509-672]) and Washington, DC (526 per 100 000 [425-631]). A lower poverty rate, higher mean number of years of education, and a greater proportion of people expressing interpersonal trust were statistically associated with lower infection and death rates, and states where larger percentages of the population identify as Black (non-Hispanic) or Hispanic were associated with higher cumulative death rates. Access to quality health care (measured by the IHME's Healthcare Access and Quality Index) was associated with fewer total COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections, but higher public health spending and more public health personnel per capita were not, at the state level. The political affiliation of the state governor was not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 death rates, but worse COVID-19 outcomes were associated with the proportion of a state's voters who voted for the 2020 Republican presidential candidate. State governments' uses of protective mandates were associated with lower infection rates, as were mask use, lower mobility, and higher vaccination rate, while vaccination rates were associated with lower death rates. State GDP and student reading test scores were not associated with state COVD-19 policy responses, infection rates, or death rates. Employment, however, had a statistically significant relationship with restaurant closures and greater infections and deaths: on average, 1574 (95% UI 884-7107) additional infections per 10 000 population were associated in states with a one percentage point increase in employment rate. Several policy mandates and protective behaviours were associated with lower fourth-grade mathematics test scores, but our study results did not find a link to state-level estimates of school closures. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 magnified the polarisation and persistent social, economic, and racial inequities that already existed across US society, but the next pandemic threat need not do the same. US states that mitigated those structural inequalities, deployed science-based interventions such as vaccination and targeted vaccine mandates, and promoted their adoption across society were able to match the best-performing nations in minimising COVID-19 death rates. These findings could contribute to the design and targeting of clinical and policy interventions to facilitate better health outcomes in future crises. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Sleep Behaviors and Progression of Multimorbidity in Middle-Aged and Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study From China.

BACKGROUND: Sleep behavior (eg, sleep duration, sleep quality, and nap) is closely related to many chronic conditions. However, less is known about its association with multiple chronic conditions (multimorbidity), particularly evidence from cohort studies. METHODS: Data were collected from a cohort of 8 937 individuals aged 45 and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2018). Sleep duration, sleep quality, and nap duration were collected in 2011 and 2013. Progression of multimorbidity was defined as the first report of 2 or more chronic conditions for participants without multimorbidity or the new report of 1 or more conditions for those with multimorbidity. Cox regression models were performed to calculate the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the associations between sleep behaviors and the progression of multimorbidity. RESULTS: Short sleep duration and poor sleep quality were associated with the progression of multimorbidity independently and jointly, especially in those less than 65 years and females. The U-shaped dose-response relationships were observed between nighttime and total sleep duration and the progression of multimorbidity. Persistent short and unsteadily changed sleep behaviors increased the risk of multimorbidity progression. Individuals sleeping ≤5 h/night with 5-7 restless days/week had 1.53 times higher risk of multimorbidity progression (95% CI: 1.37-1.71), compared to those sleeping 7-8 h/night with <1 restless day/week. CONCLUSIONS: Short sleep duration and poor sleep quality were independently and jointly associated with a higher risk of multimorbidity progression in a mid-to-older population. Optimal sleep duration and sleep quality should be emphasized in multimorbidity prevention and control.

Interventions and management on multimorbidity: An overview of systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity poses an immense burden on the healthcare systems globally, whereas the management strategies and guidelines for multimorbidity are poorly established. We aim to synthesize current evidence on interventions and management of multimorbidity. METHODS: We searched four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews). Systematic reviews (SRs) on interventions or management of multimorbidity were included and evaluated. The methodological quality of each SR was assessed by the AMSTAR-2 tool, and the quality of evidence on the effectiveness of interventions was assessed by the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) system. RESULTS: A total of 30 SRs (464 unique underlying studies) were included, including 20 SRs of interventions and 10 SRs summarizing evidence on management of multimorbidity. Four categories of interventions were identified: patient-level interventions, provider-level interventions, organization-level interventions, and combined interventions (combining the aforementioned two or three- level components). The outcomes were categorized into six types: physical conditions/outcomes, mental conditions/outcomes, psychosocial outcomes/general health, healthcare utilization and costs, patients' behaviors, and care process outcomes. Combined interventions (with patient-level and provider-level components) were more effective in promoting physical conditions/outcomes, while patient-level interventions were more effective in promoting mental conditions/outcomes and psychosocial outcomes/general health. As for healthcare utilization and care process outcomes, organization-level and combined interventions (with organization-level components) were more effective. The challenges in the management of multimorbidity at the patient, provider and organizational levels were also summarized. CONCLUSION: Combined interventions for multimorbidity at different levels would be favored to promote different types of health outcomes. Challenges exist in the management at the patient, provider, and organization levels. Therefore, a holistic and integrated approach of patient-, provider- and organization- level interventions is required to address the challenges and optimize care of patients with multimorbidity.

Childhood socioeconomic disadvantage and risk of physical multimorbidity in later life: The mediating role of depression.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of childhood socioeconomic disadvantage (SED) on the risks of depression and physical multimorbidity in later life and to explore whether depression mediates the association between childhood SED and physical multimorbidity. METHODS: Data on 8214 adults from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study were analyzed. The mean (SD) age of the study population was 57.0 (8.0) years at baseline (2011) and 51.9 % were females. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to examine the associations of childhood SED (indexed by food insecurity, highest education level of parents, and self-perceived household financial situation, and scored 0-3) with later-life depression (scored ≥10 on the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and physical multimorbidity (having two or more doctor-diagnosed chronic conditions) assessed in the 2018 follow-up survey. Mediation analysis was conducted in the overall sample and further stratified by sex to estimate the degree to which the association between childhood SED and physical multimorbidity could be explained by baseline depression. RESULTS: Participants with a childhood SED score of 3 (i.e., the most disadvantaged) had 2.63 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.91-3.63) times and 2.08 (95 % CI: 1.56-2.77) times higher odds of depression and physical multimorbidity respectively compared with those who had a score of 0 (i.e., the least disadvantaged). Depression mediated 20 % of the association between childhood SED and physical multimorbidity (36 % in females and 5 % in males). CONCLUSIONS: Childhood SED was associated with higher risks of depression and physical multimorbidity in later life, and the association of childhood SED with physical multimorbidity was mediated by depression, especially among females.

Burden of overweight and obesity in Mexico from 1990 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity (OW/OB) represent a serious challenge in Mexico, with effects on health, society and economy. Demographic, epidemiological, nutritional, social and economic factors have exacerbated this problem. OBJECTIVE: To analyze mortality and years of healthy life lost in Mexico due to OW/OB in the 1990-2021 period. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors 2021 study was used to analyze data on elevated body mass index (BMI) as a risk factor and its evolution in Mexico. RESULTS: In 2021, 118 thousand deaths attributable to high BMI were recorded, which accounted for 10.6% of total deaths and more than 4.2 million disability-adjusted life years lost. CONCLUSIONS: The obesogenic environment, influenced by social determinants of health, has had a significant impact on mortality, burden of disease, and economic costs. Addressing OW/OB requires multisector interventions to strengthen the Mexican health system.

ANTECEDENTES: El sobrepeso y la obesidad constituyen un grave desafío en México, con efectos en la salud, sociedad y economía. Factores demográficos, epidemiológicos, nutricionales, sociales y económicos han agravado esta problemática. OBJETIVO: Analizar la mortalidad y los años de vida saludable perdidos en México por sobrepeso y obesidad en el período de 1990 a 2021. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se utilizó el Global Burden of Disease 2021 para analizar los datos sobre índice de masa corporal elevado como factor de riesgo y su evolución en México. RESULTADOS: En 2021 se registraron 118 mil muertes atribuibles a índice de masa corporal elevado, que representaron 10.6 % del total de muertes y más de 4.2 millones de años de vida perdidos ajustados por discapacidad. CONCLUSIONES: El ambiente obesogénico, influido por determinantes sociales, ha tenido un impacto significativo en la mortalidad, la carga de enfermedad y los costos económicos. Abordar el sobrepeso y la obesidad requiere intervenciones multisectoriales para fortalecer el sistema de salud mexicano.

Disease burden of ageing, sex and regional disparities and health resources allocation: a longitudinal analysis of 31 provinces in Mainland China.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the disease burden of ageing based on age-related diseases (ARDs), the sex and regional disparities and the impact of health resources allocation on the burden in China. DESIGN: A national comparative study based on Global Burden of Diseases Study estimates and China's routine official statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-one provinces of Mainland China were included for analysis in the study. No individuals were involved. METHODS: We first identified the ARDs and calculated the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ARDs in 2016. We assessed the ARD burden disparities by province and sex and calculated the provincial ARD burden-adjusted age. We assessed historical changes between 1990 and 2016. Fixed effects regression models were adopted to evaluate the impact of health expenditures and health workforce indicators on the ARD burden in 2010-2016. RESULTS: In 2016, China's total burden of ARDs was 15 703.7 DALYs (95% uncertainty intervals: 12 628.5, 18 406.2) per 100 000 population. Non-communicable diseases accounted for 91.9% of the burden. There were significant regional disparities. The leading five youngest provinces were Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian, located on the east coast of China with an ARD burden-adjusted age below 40 years. After standardising the age structure, western provinces, including Tibet, Qinghai, Guizhou and Xinjiang, had the highest burden of ARDs. Males were disproportionately affected by ARDs. China's overall age-standardised ARD burden has decreased since 1990, and females and eastern provinces experienced the largest decline. Regression results showed that the urban-rural gap in health workforce density was positively associated with the ARD burdens. CONCLUSION: Chronological age alone does not provide a strong enough basis for appropriate ageing resource planning or policymaking. In China, concerted efforts should be made to reduce the ARDs burden and its disparities. Health resources should be deliberately allocated to western provinces facing the greatest health challenges due to future ageing.

Change of serum uric acid and progression of cardiometabolic multimorbidity among middle aged and older adults: A prospective cohort study.

Background: Hyperuricemia is prevalent and associated with individual cardiometabolic diseases, highlighting the potential role of serum uric acid (SUA) in the development and progression of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM, the coexistence of diabetes, heart disease, or stroke). This study aimed to examine the role of SUA change in the progression of CMM. Methods: This prospective cohort study used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, included 4,820 participants aged 45 years or above with three complete surveys at 2011 (baseline), 2015, and 2018. SUA level at survey 2011 and 2015 was used to measure SUA change as keeping or rising to hyperuricemia, and keeping or declining to non-hyperuricemia. CMM progression was defined as the first report of CMM or additional report of cardiometabolic diseases during survey 2015 and 2018. We used logistic regression models to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of SUA change on CMM progression. Results: During the follow-up of around 7 years, 519 (10.8%) of the participants kept or rose to hyperuricemia from survey 2011 to 2015, and 311 (6.5%) experienced CMM progression from survey 2015 to 2018. Participants who kept or rose to hyperuricemia had 1.86 (95% CI, 1.29, 2.68) increased odds of CMM progression compared with those who kept or declined to non-hyperuricemia. Specifically, keeping or rising to hyperuricemia (vs. keeping or declining to non-hyperuricemia) was associated with 2.01 times higher odds (95% CI, 1.18, 3.43) of incident diabetes and 1.67 times higher odds (OR:1.67; 95% CI, 1.15, 2.43) of incident cardiovascular diseases following diabetes. Conclusion: Keeping or rising to hyperuricemia was associated with CMM progression, particularly with incident cardiovascular diseases following diabetes. These findings suggest that monitoring SUA change may provide innovative insights into the prevention of CMM, especially in the secondary prevention of CMM (i.e., preventing further progression to cardiovascular diseases among patients with diabetes).

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk.

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

Health effects associated with smoking: a Burden of Proof study.

As a leading behavioral risk factor for numerous health outcomes, smoking is a major ongoing public health challenge. Although evidence on the health effects of smoking has been widely reported, few attempts have evaluated the dose-response relationship between smoking and a diverse range of health outcomes systematically and comprehensively. In the present study, we re-estimated the dose-response relationships between current smoking and 36 health outcomes by conducting systematic reviews up to 31 May 2022, employing a meta-analytic method that incorporates between-study heterogeneity into estimates of uncertainty. Among the 36 selected outcomes, 8 had strong-to-very-strong evidence of an association with smoking, 21 had weak-to-moderate evidence of association and 7 had no evidence of association. By overcoming many of the limitations of traditional meta-analyses, our approach provides comprehensive, up-to-date and easy-to-use estimates of the evidence on the health effects of smoking. These estimates provide important information for tobacco control advocates, policy makers, researchers, physicians, smokers and the public.

An Euler Proportional Venn Diagram of Obstructive Lung Disease

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Association between socioeconomic status and health behaviour change before and after non-communicable disease diagnoses: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Behavioural risk factors of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are socially patterned. However, the direction and the extent to which socioeconomic status (SES) influences behaviour changes before and after the diagnosis of NCDs is not clearly understood. We aimed to investigate the influence of SES on behaviour changes (physical inactivity and smoking) before and after the diagnosis of major NCDs. METHODS: In this multicohort study, we pooled individual-level data from six prospective cohort studies across 17 countries. We included participants who were diagnosed with either diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic lung disease, or cancer after recruitment. Participants were surveyed every 2 years. Education and total household wealth were used to construct SES. We measured behaviour changes as whether or not participants continued or initiated physical inactivity or smoking after NCD diagnosis. We used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs), prevalence ratios (PRs), and 95% CIs for the associations between SES and continuation or initiation of unfavourable behaviours. FINDINGS: We included 8107 individuals recruited between March, 2002, and January, 2016. Over the 4-year period before and after NCD diagnosis, 886 (60·4%) of 1466 individuals continued physical inactivity and 1018 (68·8%) of 1480 participants continued smoking; 1047 (15·8%) of 6641 participants with physical activity before diagnosis initiated physical inactivity after diagnosis and 132 (2·0%) of 6627 non-smokers before diagnosis initiated smoking after diagnosis. Compared with participants with high SES, those with low SES were more likely to continue physical inactivity (244 [70·3%] of 347 vs 23 [50.0%] of 46; PR 1·41 [95% CI 1·05-1·99]; OR 2·28 [1·18-4·41]), continue smoking (214 [75·4%] of 284 vs 39 [60·9%] of 64; PR 1·27 [1·03-1·59]; OR 2·08 [1·14-3·80]), but also to initiate physical inactivity (188 [26·1%] of 720 vs 47 [7·4%] of 639; PR 3·59 [2·58-4·85]; OR 4·31 [3·02 - 6·14]). INTERPRETATION: Low SES was associated with continuing or initiating physical inactivity and continuing smoking after NCD diagnosis. Reducing socioeconomic inequality in health behaviour changes should be prioritised and integrated into NCD-prevention programmes. FUNDING: Zhejiang University and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

Trends and influencing factors of perinatal birth defects in Huai'an from 2008 to 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the incidence, trends and related factors of birth defects in Huai'an from 2008 to 2020. METHODS: The surveillance data from maternal and child health system of Huai'an from 2008 to 2020 and Huai'an Statistical Yearbook were used for analysis. Taking the annual change percentage and average annual change percentage (AAPC) as the main outcome indicators, the JoinPoint regression analysis was performed to estimate the changing trend of birth defects from 2008 to 2020. Spearman correlation analysis was used to examine the association between birth defects and birth rate, marriage rate, proportion of women with advanced maternal age. RESULTS: During 2008 to 2020, a total of 3414 cases of neonatal birth defects occurred in Huai'an, with an incidence of 4.6‰ (3414/736 608). The rate of perinatal birth defects in Huai'an showed an increasing trend (AAPC=8.8%, t=3.2, P<0.01), and the year of 2016 was a significant changing point. Among 24 types of birth defects, the incidence of congenital heart disease rose and became the most prevalent defect, while the incidence of neural tube malformations such as anencephaly, encephalocele and spina bifida was declined. The incidence of birth defect was negatively correlated with the birth rate ( r=-0.751, P<0.01), not correlated with marriage rate ( r=-0.516, P>0.05), and positively correlated with the proportion of women with advanced maternal age ( r=0.726, P<0.01). CONCLUSION: The incidence of birth defects in Huai'an shows an increasing trend from 2008 to 2020 with congenital heart disease as the most common type of birth defect, and the increase of birth defects incidence is closely related with the increase of the proportion of women with advanced maternal age.