Temporal matches between monarch butterfly and milkweed population changes over the past 25,000 years.

In intimate ecological interactions, the interdependency of species may result in correlated demographic histories. For species of conservation concern, understanding the long-term dynamics of such interactions may shed light on the drivers of population decline. Here, we address the demographic history of the monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus, and its dominant host plant, the common milkweed Asclepias syriaca (A. syriaca), using broad-scale sampling and genomic inference. Because genetic resources for milkweed have lagged behind those for monarchs, we first release a chromosome-level genome assembly and annotation for common milkweed. Next, we show that despite its enormous geographic range across eastern North America, A. syriaca is best characterized as a single, roughly panmictic population. Using approximate Bayesian computation with random forests (ABC-RF), a machine learning method for reconstructing demographic histories, we show that both monarchs and milkweed experienced population expansion during the most recent recession of North American glaciers 10,000-20,000 years ago. Our data also identify concurrent population expansions in both species during the large-scale clearing of eastern forests (∼200 years ago). Finally, we find no evidence that either species experienced a reduction in effective population size over the past 75 years. Thus, the well-documented decline of monarch abundance over the past 40 years is not visible in our genomic dataset, reflecting a possible mismatch of the overwintering census population to effective population size in this species.

Herbivory, plant traits and nectar chemistry interact to affect the community of insect visitors and pollination in common milkweed, Asclepias syriaca.

Herbivory can alter plant fitness directly through changing reproductive allocation and indirectly through changing pollinator identity or behavior. Common milkweed is a plant of conservation concern with an inducible chemical defense that is also an important nectar resource. In this study, we aim to understand how herbivory severity and plant traits, including morphology and nectar chemistry, interact to affect insect visitation and pod production in common milkweed. We conducted pollinator watches on plants with experimentally varied herbivory severity and quantified insect frequency and visit length as a response to nectar chemistry, ramet height, number of inflorescences, number of flowers per inflorescence and percent tissue removed. We also quantified pollinator effectiveness and importance. Increased herbivory severity reduced floral displays, including fewer inflorescences and fewer flowers per inflorescence. A reduced floral display was correlated with reduced sucrose, fructose and glucose and resulted in a reduced number and species richness of insect visitors. Fewer flowers per inflorescence reduced the frequency of bumble bee and fly visitors, which were two important pollinators. Although honeybees, flies, small bees, soldier beetles and bumble bees were equally effective pollinators, only bumble bee frequency was positively correlated with pod production. The differences in pollinator visitation have the potential to create diversifying selection on plant floral traits, many of which are also affected by herbivores. This research demonstrates potentially conflicting selection pressures between native and non-native pollinators as well as non-native herbivores.

Range-wide variations in common milkweed traits and their effect on monarch larvae.

PREMISE: Leaf economic spectrum (LES) theory has historically been employed to inform vegetation models of ecosystem processes, but largely neglects intraspecific variation and biotic interactions. We attempt to integrate across environment-plant trait-herbivore interactions within a species at a range-wide scale. METHODS: We measured traits in 53 populations spanning the range of common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca) and used a common garden to determine the role of environment in driving patterns of intraspecific variation. We used a feeding trial to determine the role of plant traits in monarch (Danaus plexippus) larval development. RESULTS: Trait-trait relationships largely followed interspecific patterns in LES theory and persisted in a common garden when individual traits change. Common milkweed showed intraspecific variation and biogeographic clines in traits. Clines did not persist in a common garden. Larvae ate more and grew larger when fed plants with more nitrogen. A longitudinal environmental gradient in precipitation corresponded to a resource gradient in plant nitrogen, which produces a gradient in larval performance. CONCLUSIONS: Biogeographic patterns in common milkweed traits can sometimes be predicted from LES, are largely driven by environmental conditions, and have consequences for monarch larval performance. Changes to nutrient dynamics of landscapes with common milkweed could potentially influence monarch population dynamics. We show how biogeographic trends in intraspecific variation can influence key ecological interactions, especially in common species with large distributions.

The demographic effects of functional traits: an integral projection model approach reveals population-level consequences of reproduction-defence trade-offs.

Quantitatively linking individual variation in functional traits to demography is a necessary step to advance our understanding of trait-based ecological processes. We constructed a population model for Asclepias syriaca to identify how functional traits affect vital rates and population growth and whether trade-offs in chemical defence and demography alter population growth. Plants with higher foliar cardenolides had lower fibre, cellulose and lignin levels, as well as decreased sexual and clonal reproduction. Average cardenolide concentrations had the strongest effect on population growth. In both the sexual and clonal pathway, the trade-off between reproduction and defence affected population growth. We found that both increasing the mean of the distribution of individual plant values for cardenolides and herbivory decreased population growth. However, increasing the variance in both defence and herbivory increased population growth. Functional traits can impact population growth and quantifying individual-level variation in traits should be included in assessments of population-level processes.

Long- and short-term responses of Asclepias species differ in respect to fire, grazing, and nutrient addition.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The tallgrass prairie ecosystem has experienced a dramatic reduction over the past 150 yr. This reduction has impacted the abundance of native grassland species, including milkweeds (Asclepias). METHODS: We used two long-term (27 yr) data sets to examine how fire, grazing, and nutrient addition shape milkweed abundance in tallgrass prairie. We compared these results to those of a greenhouse experiment that varied nutrient levels in the absence of competition, herbivory, and mutualistic relationships. KEY RESULTS: Asclepias species exhibited broad patterns in response to burning regimes that did not include grazing, but experienced more species-specific patterns in other combinations. Asclepias syriaca was the only species to increase in abundance in plots that included burning and nutrient addition. In the greenhouse we found that nitrogen significantly increased biomass, while no effect of phosphorus was detected. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that A. syriaca will do best in settings with high nutrient loads, low competition, and no grazers. These characteristics define a small portion of the tallgrass prairie but exemplify modern agricultural settings, which have replaced prairies. However, other milkweeds examined did not share this pattern, which indicates that milkweed species will respond differently when exposed to agricultural settings, with some less able to cope with land conversion to pasture or row-crop agriculture.

Environmental variation shifts the relationship between trees and scatterhoarders along the continuum from mutualism to antagonism.

The conditional mutualism between scatterhoarders and trees varies on a continuum from mutualism to antagonism and can change across time and space, and among species. We examined 4 tree species (red oak [Quercus rubra], white oak [Quercus alba], American chestnut [Castanea dentata] and hybrid chestnut [C. dentata × Castanea mollissima) across 5 sites and 3 years to quantify the variability in this conditional mutualism. We used a published model to compare the rates of seed emergence with and without burial to the probability that seeds will be cached and left uneaten by scatterhoarders to quantify variation in the conditional mutualism that can be explained by environmental variation among sites, years, species, and seed provenance within species. All species tested had increased emergence when buried. However, comparing benefits of burial to the probability of caching by scatterhoarders indicated a mutualism in red oak, while white oak was nearly always antagonistic. Chestnut was variable around the boundary between mutualism and antagonism, indicating a high degree of context dependence in the relationship with scatterhoarders. We found that different seed provenances did not vary in their potential for mutualism. Temperature did not explain microsite differences in seed emergence in any of the species tested. In hybrid chestnut only, emergence on the surface declined with soil moisture in the fall. By quantifying the variation in the conditional mutualism that was not caused by changes in scatterhoarder behavior, we show that environmental conditions and seed traits are an important and underappreciated component of the variation in the relationship between trees and scatterhoarders.

A conceptual framework for restoration of threatened plants: the effective model of American chestnut (Castanea dentata) reintroduction.

We propose a conceptual framework for restoration of threatened plant species that encourages integration of technological, ecological, and social spheres. A sphere encompasses ideas relevant to restoration and the people working within similar areas of influence or expertise. Increased capacity within a sphere and a higher degree of coalescing among spheres predict a greater probability of successful restoration. We illustrate this with Castanea dentata, a foundation forest tree in North America that was annihilated by an introduced pathogen; the species is a model that effectively merges biotechnology, reintroduction biology, and restoration ecology. Because of C. dentata's ecological and social importance, scientists have aggressively pursued blight resistance through various approaches. We summarize recent advancements in tree breeding and biotechnology that have emerged from C. dentata research, and describe their potential to bring new tools to bear on socio-ecological restoration problems. Successful reintroduction of C. dentata will also depend upon an enhanced understanding of its ecology within contemporary forests. We identify a critical need for a deeper understanding of societal influences that may affect setting and achieving realistic restoration goals. Castanea dentata may serve as an important model to inform reintroduction of threatened plant species in general and foundation forest trees in particular.

Climate influences the demography of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants.

Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact of future climate change. Using a unique, long-term data set from eastern Idaho, USA, we parameterized integral projection models (IPMs) for Pseudoroegneria spicata, Hesperostipa comata, and Artemisia tripartita to identify the demographic rates and climate variables most important for population growth. We described survival, growth, and recruitment as a function of genet size using mixed-effect regression models that incorporated climate variables. Elasticites for the survival + growth portion of the kernel were larger than the recruitment portion for all three species, with survival + growth accounting for 87-95% of the total elasticity. The genet sizes with the highest elasticity values in each species were very close to the genet size threshold where survival approached 100%. We found strong effects of climate on the population growth rate of two of our three species. In H. comata, a 1% decrease in previous year's precipitation would lead to a 0.6% decrease in population growth. In A. tripartita, a 1% increase in summer temperature would result in a 1.3% increase in population growth. In both H. comata and A. tripartita, climate influenced population growth by affecting genet growth more than survival or recruitment. Late-winter snow was the most important climate variable for P. spicata, but its effect on population growth was smaller than the climate effects we found in H. comata or A. tripartita. For all three species, demographic responses lagged climate by at least one year. Our analysis indicates that understanding climate effects on genet growth may be crucial for anticipating future changes in the structure and function of sagebrush steppe vegetation.

Responses of two bunchgrasses to nitrogen addition in tallgrass prairie: the role of bud bank demography.

Growth of tallgrass prairie plants, many of which maintain substantial bud banks, can be limited by nitrogen (N), water, and/or light. We hypothesized that tallgrass prairie plants respond to increases in N through demographic effects on the bud bank. We tested the effects of a pulse of N on (1) bud bank demography, (2) plant reproductive allocation, and (3) ramet size. We parameterized matrix models, considering each genet as a population of plant parts. Nitrogen addition significantly impacted bud bank demography in two subdominant species of bunchgrass: Sporobolus heterolepis (a C(4) grass) and Koeleria macrantha (a C(3) grass), but had no effect on the size of individual ramets. Emergence from the bud bank and ramet population growth rates (λ) were significantly higher in S. heterolepis genets that received supplemental N. Nitrogen addition also affected the bud demography of K. macrantha, but N addition decreased rather than increased λ. Prospective and retrospective demographic analyses indicated that bud bank dynamics were the most important demographic processes driving plant responses to nutrient availability. Thus, the variation in productivity in these tallgrass prairie species is driven principally by the demography of the bud bank rather than by the physiology and growth of aboveground tillers. Improved understanding of bud bank dynamics may lead to improved predictive models of grassland responses to environmental changes such as altered N deposition and precipitation.

Below-ground bud banks increase along a precipitation gradient of the North American Great Plains: a test of the meristem limitation hypothesis.

In perennial grasslands, the below-ground population of meristems (bud bank) plays a fundamental role in plant population dynamics. Here, we tested the 'meristem limitation hypothesis' prediction - that bud banks increase along an increasing precipitation/productivity gradient in North American grasslands - and assessed the seasonal dynamics of bud banks. We sampled bud and stem populations quarterly at six sites across a 1100 km gradient in central North America. Bud banks increased with average annual precipitation, which explained 80% of the variability between the sites. In addition, seasonal changes in grass bud banks were surprisingly similar across a 2.5-fold range in precipitation and a 4-fold range of productivity: densities peaked in March, decreased in June and increased slightly in September. Increasing meristem limitation may constrain vegetation responses to inter-annual changes in resources. An important consequence of this is that biomes with large bud banks may be the most responsive to environmental change. If meristem limitation represents an important constraint on productivity responses to environmental variability, then bud banks must be considered in developing predictive models for grassland responses to environmental change.