Continental-scale evaluation of downy birch pollen production: Estimating the impacts of global change.

The high prevalence of hay fever in Europe has raised concerns about the implications of climate change-induced higher temperatures on pollen production. Our study focuses on downy birch pollen production across Europe by analyzing 456 catkins during 2019-2021 in 37 International Phenological Gardens (IPG) spanning a large geographic gradient. As IPGs rely on genetically identical plants, we were able to reduce the effects of genetic variability. We studied the potential association with masting behavior and three model specifications based on mean and quantile regression to assess the impact of meteorology (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and atmospheric gases (e.g., ozone (O3) and carbon-dioxide (CO2)) on pollen and catkin production, while controlling for tree age approximated by stem circumference. The results revealed a substantial geographic variability in mean pollen production, ranging from 1.9 to 2.5 million pollen grains per catkin. Regression analyses indicated that elevated average temperatures of the previous summer corresponded to increased pollen production, while higher O3 levels led to a reduction. Additionally, catkins number was positively influenced by preceding summer's temperature and precipitation but negatively by O3 levels. The investigation of quantile effects revealed that the impacts of mean temperature and O3 levels from the previous summer varied throughout the conditional response distribution. We found that temperature predominantly affected trees characterized by a high pollen production. We therefore suggest that birches modulate their physiological processes to optimize pollen production under varying temperature regimes. In turn, O3 levels negatively affected trees with pollen production levels exceeding the conditional median. We conclude that future temperature increase might exacerbate pollen production while other factors may modify (decrease in the case of O3 and amplify for precipitation) this effect. Our comprehensive study sheds light on potential impacts of climate change on downy birch pollen production, which is crucial for birch reproduction and human health.

The impact of exposure to tobacco smoke and e-cigarettes on asthma-related outcomes: Systematic review informing the EAACI guidelines on environmental science for allergic diseases and asthma.

To inform the clinical practice guidelines' recommendations developed by the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology systematic reviews (SR) assessed using GRADE on the impact of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and active smoking on the risk of new-onset asthma/recurrent wheezing (RW)/low lung function (LF), and on asthma-related outcomes. Only longitudinal studies were included, almost all on combustion cigarettes, only one assessing e-cigarettes and LF. According to the first SR (67 studies), prenatal ETS increases the risk of RW (moderate certainty evidence) and may increase the risk of new-onset asthma and of low LF (low certainty evidence). Postnatal ETS increases the risk of new-onset asthma and of RW (moderate certainty evidence) and may impact LF (low certainty evidence). Combined in utero and postnatal ETS may increase the risk of new-onset asthma (low certainty evidence) and increases the risk of RW (moderate certainty evidence). According to the second SR (24 studies), ETS increases the risk of severe asthma exacerbations and impairs asthma control and LF (moderate certainty evidence). According to the third SR (25 studies), active smoking increases the risk of severe asthma exacerbations and of suboptimal asthma control (moderate certainty evidence) and may impact asthma-related quality-of-life and LF (low certainty evidence).

EAACI guidelines on environmental science for allergy and asthma: The impact of short-term exposure to outdoor air pollutants on asthma-related outcomes and recommendations for mitigation measures.

The EAACI Guidelines on the impact of short-term exposure to outdoor pollutants on asthma-related outcomes provide recommendations for prevention, patient care and mitigation in a framework supporting rational decisions for healthcare professionals and patients to individualize and improve asthma management and for policymakers and regulators as an evidence-informed reference to help setting legally binding standards and goals for outdoor air quality at international, national and local levels. The Guideline was developed using the GRADE approach and evaluated outdoor pollutants referenced in the current Air Quality Guideline of the World Health Organization as single or mixed pollutants and outdoor pesticides. Short-term exposure to all pollutants evaluated increases the risk of asthma-related adverse outcomes, especially hospital admissions and emergency department visits (moderate certainty of evidence at specific lag days). There is limited evidence for the impact of traffic-related air pollution and outdoor pesticides exposure as well as for the interventions to reduce emissions. Due to the quality of evidence, conditional recommendations were formulated for all pollutants and for the interventions reducing outdoor air pollution. Asthma management counselled by the current EAACI guidelines can improve asthma-related outcomes but global measures for clean air are needed to achieve significant impact.

The impact of outdoor pollution and extreme temperatures on asthma-related outcomes: A systematic review for the EAACI guidelines on environmental science for allergic diseases and asthma.

Air pollution is one of the biggest environmental threats for asthma. Its impact is augmented by climate change. To inform the recommendations of the EAACI Guidelines on the environmental science for allergic diseases and asthma, a systematic review (SR) evaluated the impact on asthma-related outcomes of short-term exposure to outdoor air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2 , SO2 , O3 , and CO), heavy traffic, outdoor pesticides, and extreme temperatures. Additionally, the SR evaluated the impact of the efficacy of interventions reducing outdoor pollutants. The risk of bias was assessed using ROBINS-E tools and the certainty of the evidence by using GRADE. Short-term exposure to PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 probably increases the risk of asthma-related hospital admissions (HA) and emergency department (ED) visits (moderate certainty evidence). Exposure to heavy traffic may increase HA and deteriorate asthma control (low certainty evidence). Interventions reducing outdoor pollutants may reduce asthma exacerbations (low to very low certainty evidence). Exposure to fumigants may increase the risk of new-onset asthma in agricultural workers, while exposure to 1,3-dichloropropene may increase the risk of asthma-related ED visits (low certainty evidence). Heatwaves and cold spells may increase the risk of asthma-related ED visits and HA and asthma mortality (low certainty evidence).

The impact of indoor pollution on asthma-related outcomes: A systematic review for the EAACI guidelines on environmental science for allergic diseases and asthma.

Systematic review using GRADE of the impact of exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs), cleaning agents, mould/damp, pesticides on the risk of (i) new-onset asthma (incidence) and (ii) adverse asthma-related outcomes (impact). MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science were searched for indoor pollutant exposure studies reporting on new-onset asthma and critical and important asthma-related outcomes. Ninety four studies were included: 11 for VOCs (7 for incidenceand 4 for impact), 25 for cleaning agents (7 for incidenceand 8 for impact), 48 for damp/mould (26 for incidence and 22 for impact) and 10 for pesticides (8 for incidence and 2 for impact). Exposure to damp/mould increases the risk of new-onset wheeze (moderate certainty evidence). Exposure to cleaning agents may be associated with a higher risk of new-onset asthma and with asthma severity (low level of certainty). Exposure to pesticides and VOCs may increase the risk of new-onset asthma (very low certainty evidence). The impact on asthma-related outcomes of all major indoor pollutants is uncertain. As the level of certainty is low or very low for most of the available evidence on the impact of indoor pollutants on asthma-related outcomes more rigorous research in the field is warranted.

Addressing adverse synergies between chemical and biological pollutants at schools-The 'SynAir-G' hypothesis.

While the number and types of indoor air pollutants is rising, much is suspected but little is known about the impact of their potentially synergistic interactions, upon human health. Gases, particulate matter, organic compounds but also allergens and viruses, fall within the 'pollutant' definition. Distinct populations, such as children and allergy and asthma sufferers are highly susceptible, while a low socioeconomic background is a further susceptibility factor; however, no specific guidance is available. We spend most of our time indoors; for children, the school environment is of paramount importance and potentially amenable to intervention. The interactions between some pollutant classes have been studied. However, a lot is missing with respect to understanding interactions between specific pollutants of different classes in terms of concentrations, timing and sequence, to improve targeting and upgrade standards. SynAir-G is a European Commission-funded project aiming to reveal and quantify synergistic interactions between different pollutants affecting health, from mechanisms to real life, focusing on the school setting. It will develop a comprehensive and responsive multipollutant monitoring system, advance environmentally friendly interventions, and disseminate the generated knowledge to relevant stakeholders in accessible and actionable formats. The aim of this article it to put forward the SynAir-G hypothesis, and describe its background and objectives.

A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe.

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

Co-exposure to highly allergenic airborne pollen and fungal spores in Europe.

The study is aimed at determining the potential spatiotemporal risk of the co-occurrence of airborne pollen and fungal spores high concentrations in different bio-climatic zones in Europe. Birch, grass, mugwort, ragweed, olive pollen and Alternaria and Cladosporium fungal spores were investigated at 16 sites in Europe, in 2005-2019. In Central and northern Europe, pollen and fungal spore seasons mainly overlap in June and July, while in South Europe, the highest pollen concentrations occur frequently outside of the spore seasons. In the coldest climate, no allergy thresholds were exceeded simultaneously by two spore or pollen taxa, while in the warmest climate most of the days with at least two pollen taxa exceeding threshold values were observed. The annual air temperature amplitude seems to be the main bioclimatic factor influencing the accumulation of days in which Alternaria and Cladosporium spores simultaneously exceed allergy thresholds. The phenomenon of co-occurrence of airborne allergen concentrations gets increasingly common in Europe and is proposed to be present on other continents, especially in temperate climate.

Pollen production of downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) along an altitudinal gradient in the European Alps.

High-altitude environments are highly susceptible to the effects of climate change. Thus, it is crucial to examine and understand the behaviour of specific plant traits along altitudinal gradients, which offer a real-life laboratory for analysing future impacts of climate change. The available information on how pollen production varies at different altitudes in mountainous areas is limited. In this study, we investigated pollen production of 17 birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) individuals along an altitudinal gradient in the European Alps. We sampled catkins at nine locations in the years 2020-2021 and monitored air temperatures. We investigated how birch pollen, flowers and inflorescences are produced in relation to thermal factors at various elevations. We found that mean pollen production of Betula pubescens Ehrh. varied between 0.4 and 8.3 million pollen grains per catkin. We did not observe any significant relationships between the studied reproductive metrics and altitude. However, minimum temperature of the previous summer was found to be significantly correlated to pollen (rs = 0.504, p = 0.039), flower (rs = 0.613, p = 0.009) and catkin (rs = 0.642, p = 0.005) production per volume unit of crown. Therefore, we suggest that temperature variability even at such small scales is very important for studying the response related to pollen production.

Airborne pollen grain detection from partially labelled data utilising semi-supervised learning.

Airborne pollen monitoring has been conducted for more than a century now, as knowledge of the quantity and periodicity of airborne pollen has diverse use cases, like reconstructing historic climates and tracking current climate change, forensic applications, and up to warning those affected by pollen-induced respiratory allergies. Hence, related work on automation of pollen classification already exists. In contrast, detection of pollen is still conducted manually, and it is the gold standard for accuracy. So, here we used a new-generation, automated, near-real-time pollen monitoring sampler, the BAA500, and we used data consisting of both raw and synthesised microscope images. Apart from the automatically generated, commercially-labelled data of all pollen taxa, we additionally used manual corrections to the pollen taxa, as well as a manually created test set of bounding boxes and pollen taxa, so as to more accurately evaluate the real-life performance. For the pollen detection, we employed two-stage deep neural network object detectors. We explored a semi-supervised training scheme to remedy the partial labelling. Using a teacher-student approach, the model can add pseudo-labels to complete the labelling during training. To evaluate the performance of our deep learning algorithms and to compare them to the commercial algorithm of the BAA500, we created a manual test set, in which an expert aerobiologist corrected automatically annotated labels. For the novel manual test set, both the supervised and semi-supervised approaches clearly outperform the commercial algorithm with an F1 score of up to 76.9 % compared to 61.3 %. On an automatically created and partially labelled test dataset, we obtain a maximum mAP of 92.7 %. Additional experiments on raw microscope images show comparable performance for the best models, which potentially justifies reducing the complexity of the image generation process. Our results bring automatic pollen monitoring a step forward, as they close the gap in pollen detection performance between manual and automated procedure.

Pollen long-distance transport associated with symptoms in pollen allergics on the German Alps: An old story with a new ending?

Pollen grains are among the main causes of respiratory allergies worldwide and hence they are routinely monitored in urban environments. However, their sources can be located farther, outside cities' borders. So, the fundamental question remains as to how frequent longer-range pollen transport incidents are and if they may actually comprise high-risk allergy cases. The aim was to study the pollen exposure on a high-altitude location where only scarce vegetation exists, by biomonitoring airborne pollen and symptoms of grass pollen allergic individuals, locally. The research was carried out in 2016 in the alpine research station UFS, located at 2650 m height, on the Zugspitze Mountain in Bavaria, Germany. Airborne pollen was monitored by use of portable Hirst-type volumetric traps. As a case study, grass pollen-allergic human volunteers were registering their symptoms daily during the peak of the grass pollen season in 2016, during a 2-week stay on Zugspitze, 13-24 June. The possible origin of some pollen types was identified using back trajectory model HYSPLIT for 27 air mass backward trajectories up to 24 h. We found that episodes of high aeroallergen concentrations may occur even at such a high-altitude location. More than 1000 pollen grains m-3 of air were measured on the UFS within only 4 days. It was confirmed that the locally detected bioaerosols originated from at least Switzerland, and up to northwest France, even eastern American Continent, because of frequent long-distance transport. Such far-transported pollen may explain the observed allergic symptoms in sensitized individuals at a remarkable rate of 87 % during the study period. Long-distance transport of aeroallergens can cause allergic symptoms in sensitized individuals, as evidenced in a sparse-vegetation, low-exposure, 'low-risk' alpine environment. We strongly suggest that we need cross-border pollen monitoring to investigate long-distance pollen transport, as its occurrence seems both frequent and clinically relevant.

Betula pendula trees infected by birch idaeovirus and cherry leaf roll virus: Impacts of urbanisation and NO2 levels.

Viruses are frequently a microbial biocontaminant of healthy plants. The occurrence of the infection can be also due to environmental stress, like urbanisation, air pollution and increased air temperature, especially under the ongoing climate change. The aim of the present study was to investigate the hypothesis that worsened air quality and fewer green areas may favour the higher frequency of common viral infections, particularly in a common tree in temperate and continental climates, Betula pendula ROTH. We examined 18 trees, during the years 2015-2017, the same always for each year, in the region of Augsburg, Germany. By specific PCR, the frequency of two viruses, Cherry leaf roll virus (CLRV, genus Nepovirus, family Secoviridae), which is frequent in birch trees, and a novel virus tentatively named birch idaeovirus (BIV), which has been only recently described, were determined in pollen samples. The occurrence of the viruses was examined against the variables of urban index, air pollution (O3 and NO2), air temperature, and tree morphometrics (trunk perimeter, tree height, crown height and diameter). Generalized Non-linear models (binomial logit with backward stepwise removal of independent variables) were employed. During the study period, both CLRV and BIV were distributed widely throughout the investigated birch individuals. CLRV seemed to be rather cosmopolitan and was present independent of any abiotic factor. BIV's occurrence was mostly determined by higher values of the urban index and of NO2. Urban birch trees, located next to high-traffic roads with higher NO2 levels, are more likely to be infected by BIV. Increased environmental stress may lead to more plant viral infections. Here we suggest that this is particularly true for urban spaces, near high-traffic roads, where plants may be more stressed, and we recommend taking mitigation measures for controlling negative human interventions.

Is exposure to pollen a risk factor for moderate and severe asthma exacerbations?

Limited number of studies have focused on the impact of pollen exposure on asthma. As a part of the EAACI Guidelines on Environment Science, this first systematic review on the relationship of pollen exposure to asthma exacerbations aimed to bridge this knowledge gap in view of implementing recommendations of prevention. We searched electronic iPubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases using a set of MeSH terms and related synonyms and identified 73 eligible studies that were included for systemic review. When possible, meta-analyses were conducted. Overall meta-analysis suggests that outdoor pollen exposure may have an effect on asthma exacerbation, but caution is needed due to the low number of studies and their heterogeneity. The strongest associations were found between asthma attacks, asthma-related ED admissions or hospitalizations, and an increase in grass pollen concentration in the previous 2-day overall in children aged less than 18 years of age. Tree pollen may increase asthma-related ED visits or admissions lagged up to 7-day overall in individuals younger than 18 years. Rare data show that among subjects under 18 years of age, an exposure to grass pollen lagged up to 3 days may lower lung function. Further research considering effect modifiers of pollen sensitization, hay fever, asthma, air pollution, green spaces, and pre-existing medications is urgently warranted to better evaluate the impacts of pollen on asthma exacerbation. Preventive measures in relation to pollen exposure should be integrated in asthma control as pollen increase continues due to climate change.

Airborne pollen and fungi indoors: Evidence from primary schools in Lithuania.

The number of children suffering from respiratory allergies and asthma has been increasing worldwide and, hence, it is crucial to understand the burden of inhalant biological particles present in school facilities, where children spend one third of their life. From the perspective of indoor air quality, while there are numerous studies on outdoor bioaerosol exposure, there are still uncertainties regarding the diversity and deposition of airborne pollen and fungi indoors. When it comes to schools, there is limited research as to the potential bioaerosol exposure. Here we studied the indoor environment of public schools aiming to reveal whether primary schools of different sizes and at localities of different levels of urbanization may exhibit a variability in the biodiversity and abundance of particles of biological origin, which could pose a risk to child health. To achieve this, 11 schools were selected, located in a variety of environments, from downtown, to city centre-periphery, and to the suburbs. Fungal and pollen samples were collected from various surfaces in school classrooms and corridors, using passive air sampling and swab sampling. We demonstrated that fungi and pollen are detected in school premises during and after the vegetation season. The highest diversity of bioaerosols was found on the top of cabinets and windowsills, with Penicillium, Cladosporium and Acremonium being the most abundant indoors. The levels of fungi were higher in schools with more students. The diversity and amount of pollen in the spring were significantly higher than in samples collected in autumn. Our findings complemented existing evidence that bioaerosol measurements in schools (including kindergartens or informal education facilities) are vital. Hence, we here suggest that, in addition to monitoring air quality and bacterial levels indoors, fungi and pollen measurements have to be integrated in the existing regular biomonitoring campaigns so as to prevent exposure, increase awareness and manage efficiently allergic symptomatology.

Is Pollen Production of Birch Controlled by Genetics and Local Conditions?

Intraspecific genetic variation might limit the relevance of environmental factors on plant traits. For example, the interaction between genetics and (a-)biotic factors regulating pollen production are still poorly understood. In this study, we investigated pollen production of 28 birch (Betula pendula Roth) individuals in the years 2019−2021. We sampled catkins of eleven groups of genetically identical trees, which were partially topped, but of the same age and located in a seed plantation in southern Germany characterized by similar microclimatic conditions. Furthermore, we monitored environmental factors such as air temperature, characterized air quality (NO2, NOx and O3), and assessed potential solar radiation. We especially checked for differences between years as well as between and within clones and assessed the synchronicity of years with high/low pollen production. We present a robust mean for the pollen production of Betula pendula (1.66 million pollen grains per catkin). Our findings show temporal (H(2) = 46.29, p < 0.001) and clonal variations (H(4) = 21.44, p < 0.001) in pollen production. We conclude that synchronized high or low pollen production is not utterly site-specific and, in addition, not strictly dependent on genotypes. We suggest that appropriate clone selection based on application (seed plantation, urban planting) might be advantageous and encourage a long-term monitoring.

Detecting Airborne Pollen Using an Automatic, Real-Time Monitoring System: Evidence from Two Sites.

Airborne pollen monitoring has been an arduous task, making ecological applications and allergy management virtually disconnected from everyday practice. Over the last decade, intensive research has been conducted worldwide to automate this task and to obtain real-time measurements. The aim of this study was to evaluate such an automated biomonitoring system vs. the conventional 'gold-standard' Hirst-type technique, attempting to assess which may more accurately provide the genuine exposure to airborne pollen. Airborne pollen was monitored in Augsburg since 2015 with two different methods, a novel automatic Bio-Aerosol Analyser, and with the conventional 7-day recording Hirst-type volumetric trap, in two different sites. The reliability, performance, accuracy, and comparability of the BAA500 Pollen Monitor (PoMo) vs. the conventional device were investigated, by use of approximately 2.5 million particles sampled during the study period. The observations made by the automated PoMo showed an average accuracy of approximately 85%. However, it also exhibited reliability problems, with information gaps within the main pollen season of between 17 to 19 days. The PoMo automated algorithm had identification issues, mainly confusing the taxa of Populus, Salix and Tilia. Hirst-type measurements consistently exhibited lower pollen abundances (median of annual pollen integral: 2080), however, seasonal traits were more comparable, with the PoMo pollen season starting slightly later (median: 3 days), peaking later (median: 5 days) but also ending later (median: 14 days). Daily pollen concentrations reported by Hirst-type traps vs. PoMo were significantly, but not closely, correlated (r = 0.53-0.55), even after manual classification. Automatic pollen monitoring has already shown signs of efficiency and accuracy, despite its young age; here it is suggested that automatic pollen monitoring systems may be more effective in capturing a larger proportion of the airborne pollen diversity. Even though reliability issues still exist, we expect that this new generation of automated bioaerosol monitoring will eventually change the aerobiological era, as known for almost 70 years now.

Spatiotemporal assessment of aeromycoflora under differing urban green space, sampling height, and meteorological regimes: the atmospheric fungiscape of Thessaloniki, Greece.

We studied the diversity and abundance of the airborne fungal spores in the city of Thessaloniki, Greece, for two consecutive years. Air samples were collected at one rooftop station (at 30 m) and six near-ground stations (at 1.5 m) that differed in the size and composition of adjacent green spaces. The effects of meteorological factors on airborne fungal spore concentrations were also explored. Cladosporium spores were dominant everywhere in the air of the city. The total concentration of the airborne fungal spores at 30 m was 10 times lower than near the ground. Differences in concentration and composition were far less pronounced among near-ground stations. The attributes of the fungal spore season did not change in a consistent way among stations and years. Concentrations at the near-ground stations matched the grouping of the latter into stations of high, intermediate, and low urban green space. Minimum air temperature was the primary meteorological factor affecting spore abundance, followed by relative humidity. Airborne fungal spores are more homogeneously distributed in the air of the city, but their concentrations decrease more rapidly with height than pollen.

Non-pharmacological interventions for pollen-induced allergic symptoms: Systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Allergic diseases pose a health problem worldwide. Pollen are widespread aeroallergens which can cause symptoms like shortness of breath, cough, itchy eyes, or rhinitis. Apart from preventive measures and pharmacological treatment, also non-pharmacological interventions have been suggested to reduce symptoms. The objective of this work was to review studies investigating the effectiveness of non-pharmacologic interventions to reduce allergic symptoms. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL were systematically reviewed in July 2018 and April 2020. Several authors worked on the screening of titles, abstracts, and full texts. One author for each literature search performed the data extraction and the risk of bias assessment. Studies were included if they met the inclusion criteria defined by the PECOs. Studies which investigating the effect of non-pharmacologic interventions on patients with allergic rhinitis were included. RESULTS: Twenty-nine studies investigating eleven types of non-pharmacologic interventions to avoid and reduce allergic symptoms due to pollen exposure were included in this review. Out of all studies, seven studies addressed nasal rinsing and 22 included acupuncture, air filtering, artisanal tears, individual allergen avoidance advice, various nasal applications, self-hypnosis, rhinophototherapy, and wraparound sunglasses. CONCLUSION: Most studies had a high risk of bias and small sample sizes. There were only a few high-quality studies that give hints about the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions. For future research, more high-quality studies are required to confirm the effectiveness of simple, safe, and cost-effective interventions.

The phenomenon of thunderstorm asthma in Bavaria, Southern Germany: a statistical approach.

Higher incidences of asthma during thunderstorms can pose a serious health risk. In this study, we estimate the thunderstorm asthma risk using statistical methods, with special focus on Bavaria, Southern Germany. In this approach, a dataset of asthma-related emergency cases for the study region is combined with meteorological variables and aeroallergen data to identify statistical relationships between the occurrence of asthma (predictand) and different environmental parameters (set of predictors). On the one hand, the results provide evidence for a weak but significant relationship between atmospheric stability indices and asthma emergencies in the region, but also show that currently thunderstorm asthma is not a major concern in Bavaria due to overall low incidences. As thunderstorm asthma can have severe consequences for allergic patients, the presented approach can be important for the development of emergency strategies in regions affected by thunderstorm asthma and under present and future climate change conditions.