A framework for model-based assessment of resilience in water resource recovery facilities against power outage.

Current practice to enhance resilience in Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) is to ensure redundancy or back-up for most critical equipment (e.g. pumps or blowers). Model-based assessment allows evaluation of different strategies for quantitatively and efficiently enhancing resilience and justifying the allocation of resources. The goal of this study is to provide guidance for the development of tailored deterministic models of full-scale WRRFs. A framework for model-based resilience assessment is proposed that provides guidance on data collection, model selection, model calibration and scenario analysis. The framework is embedded into the Good Modeling Practice (GMP) Unified Protocol, providing a new application for resilience assessment and an initial set of stressors for WRRFs. The usefulness of the framework is illustrated through a resilience assessment of the WRRF of Girona against power outage. Results show that, for the Girona facility, limited energy back-up can cause non-compliance of WRRF discharge limits in the case of a blower power shut-down of 6 h, and around 12 h when the blower shut-down is also combined with a shut-down of the recirculation pumps. The best option to enhance resilience would be increasing the power back-up by 218%, which allows the plant to run with recirculation pumps and blowers at minimum capacity. In such a case, resilience can be further enhanced by manipulating the air supply valves to optimise the air distribution, to balance oxygen needs in each reactor with the overall system pressure. We conclude that, with industry consensus on what is considered an acceptable level of resilience, a framework for resilience assessment would be a useful tool to enhance the resilience of our current water infrastructure. Further research is needed to establish if the permit structure should accommodate levels sof functionality to account for stress events.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure.

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.