Early infection is an independent risk factor for increased mortality in patients with culture-confirmed infected pancreatic necrosis.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is dynamic over the course of the disease, with type and timing of interventions as well as persistent organ failure being key determinants. The timing of infection onset and how it pertains to mortality is not well defined. OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between mortality and the development of early IPN. METHODS: International multicenter retrospective cohort study of patients with IPN, confirmed by a positive microbial culture from (peri) pancreatic collections. The association between timing of infection onset, timing of interventions and mortality were assessed using Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: A total of 743 patients from 19 centers across 3 continents with culture-confirmed IPN from 2000 to 2016 were evaluated, mortality rate was 20.9% (155/734). Early infection was associated with a higher mortality, when early infection occurred within the first 4 weeks from presentation with acute pancreatitis. After adjusting for comorbidity, advanced age, organ failure, enteral nutrition and parenteral nutrition, early infection (≤4 weeks) and early open surgery (≤4 weeks) were associated with increased mortality [HR: 2.45 (95% CI: 1.63-3.67), p < 0.001 and HR: 4.88 (95% CI: 1.70-13.98), p = 0.003, respectively]. There was no association between late open surgery, early or late minimally invasive surgery, early or late percutaneous drainage with mortality (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Early infection was associated with increased mortality, independent of interventions. Early surgery remains a strong predictor of excess mortality.

Associations between pancreatic expression quantitative traits and risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is among the most lethal cancers. Its poor prognosis is predominantly due to the fact that most patients remain asymptomatic until the disease reaches an advanced stage, alongside the lack of early markers and screening strategies. A better understanding of PDAC risk factors is essential for the identification of groups at high risk in the population. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been a powerful tool for detecting genetic variants associated with complex traits, including pancreatic cancer. By exploiting functional and GWAS data, we investigated the associations between polymorphisms affecting gene function in the pancreas (expression quantitative trait loci, eQTLs) and PDAC risk. In a two-phase approach, we analysed 13 713 PDAC cases and 43 784 controls and identified a genome-wide significant association between the A allele of the rs2035875 polymorphism and increased PDAC risk (P = 7.14 × 10-10). This allele is known to be associated with increased expression in the pancreas of the keratin genes KRT8 and KRT18, whose increased levels have been reported to correlate with various tumour cell characteristics. Additionally, the A allele of the rs789744 variant was associated with decreased risk of developing PDAC (P = 3.56 × 10-6). This single nucleotide polymorphism is situated in the SRGAP1 gene and the A allele is associated with higher expression of the gene, which in turn inactivates the cyclin-dependent protein 42 (CDC42) gene expression, thus decreasing the risk of PDAC. In conclusion, we present here a functional-based novel PDAC risk locus and an additional strong candidate supported by significant associations and plausible biological mechanisms.

Lack of association of CD44-rs353630 and CHI3L2-rs684559 with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma survival.

Although pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) survival is poor, there are differences in patients' response to the treatments. Detection of predictive biomarkers explaining these differences is of the utmost importance. In a recent study two genetic markers (CD44-rs353630 and CHI3L2-rs684559) were reported to be associated with survival after PDAC resection. We attempted to replicate the associations in 1856 PDAC patients (685 resected with stage I/II) from the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. We also analysed the combined effect of the two genotypes in order to compare our results with what was previously reported. Additional stratified analyses considering TNM stage of the disease and whether the patients received surgery were also performed. We observed no statistically significant associations, except for the heterozygous carriers of CD44-rs353630, who were associated with worse OS (HR = 5.01; 95% CI 1.58-15.88; p = 0.006) among patients with stage I disease. This association is in the opposite direction of those reported previously, suggesting that data obtained in such small subgroups are hardly replicable and should be considered cautiously. The two polymorphisms combined did not show any statistically significant association. Our results suggest that the effect of CD44-rs353630 and CHI3L2-rs684559 cannot be generalized to all PDAC patients.

Genome-wide scan of long noncoding RNA single nucleotide polymorphisms and pancreatic cancer susceptibility.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is projected to become the second cancer-related cause of death by 2030. Identifying novel risk factors, including genetic risk loci, could be instrumental in risk stratification and implementation of prevention strategies. Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are involved in regulation of key biological processes, and the possible role of their genetic variability has been unexplored so far. Combining genome wide association studies and functional data, we investigated the genetic variability in all lncRNAs. We analyzed 9893 PDAC cases and 9969 controls and identified a genome-wide significant association between the rs7046076 SNP and risk of developing PDAC (P = 9.73 × 10-9 ). This SNP is located in the NONHSAG053086.2 (lnc-SMC2-1) gene and the risk allele is predicted to disrupt the binding of the lncRNA with the micro-RNA (miRNA) hsa-mir-1256 that regulates several genes involved in cell cycle, such as CDKN2B. The CDKN2B region is pleiotropic and its genetic variants have been associated with several human diseases, possibly though an imperfect interaction between lncRNA and miRNA. We present a novel PDAC risk locus, supported by a genome-wide statistical significance and a plausible biological mechanism.

Polygenic and multifactorial scores for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma risk prediction.

BACKGROUND: Most cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are asymptomatic in early stages, and the disease is typically diagnosed in advanced phases, resulting in very high mortality. Tools to identify individuals at high risk of developing PDAC would be useful to improve chances of early detection. OBJECTIVE: We generated a polygenic risk score (PRS) for PDAC risk prediction, combining the effect of known risk SNPs, and carried out an exploratory analysis of a multifactorial score. METHODS: We tested the associations of the individual known risk SNPs on up to 2851 PDAC cases and 4810 controls of European origin from the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. Thirty risk SNPs were included in a PRS, which was computed on the subset of subjects that had 100% call rate, consisting of 839 cases and 2040 controls in PANDoRA and 6420 cases and 4889 controls from the previously published Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium I-III and Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium genome-wide association studies. Additional exploratory multifactorial scores were constructed by complementing the genetic score with smoking and diabetes. RESULTS: The scores were associated with increased PDAC risk and reached high statistical significance (OR=2.70, 95% CI 1.99 to 3.68, p=2.54×10-10 highest vs lowest quintile of the weighted PRS, and OR=14.37, 95% CI 5.57 to 37.09, p=3.64×10-8, highest vs lowest quintile of the weighted multifactorial score). CONCLUSION: We found a highly significant association between a PRS and PDAC risk, which explains more than individual SNPs and is a step forward in the direction of the construction of a tool for risk stratification in the population.

Acid suppression therapy, gastrointestinal bleeding and infection in acute pancreatitis - An international cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acid suppressing drugs (ASD) are generally used in acute pancreatitis (AP); however, large cohorts are not available to understand their efficiency and safety. Therefore, our aims were to evaluate the association between the administration of ASDs, the outcome of AP, the frequency of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and GI infection in patients with AP. METHODS: We initiated an international survey and performed retrospective data analysis on AP patients hospitalized between January 2013 and December 2018. RESULTS: Data of 17,422 adult patients with AP were collected from 59 centers of 23 countries. We found that 23.3% of patients received ASDs before and 86.6% during the course of AP. ASDs were prescribed to 57.6% of patients at discharge. ASD administration was associated with more severe AP and higher mortality. GI bleeding was reported in 4.7% of patients, and it was associated with pancreatitis severity, mortality and ASD therapy. Stool culture test was performed in 6.3% of the patients with 28.4% positive results. Clostridium difficile was the cause of GI infection in 60.5% of cases. Among the patients with GI infections, 28.9% received ASDs, whereas 24.1% were without any acid suppression treatment. GI infection was associated with more severe pancreatitis and higher mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Although ASD therapy is widely used, it is unlikely to have beneficial effects either on the outcome of AP or on the prevention of GI bleeding during AP. Therefore, ASD therapy should be substantially decreased in the therapeutic management of AP.

Hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis: A prospective, multicenter, international cohort analysis of 716 acute pancreatitis cases.

BACKGROUND: Hypertriglyceridemia is the third most common cause of acute pancreatitis (AP). It has been shown that hypertriglyceridemia aggravates the severity and related complications of AP; however, detailed analyses of large cohorts are contradictory. Our aim was to investigate the dose-dependent effect of hypertriglyceridemia on AP. METHODS: AP patients over 18 years old who underwent triglyceride measurement within the initial three days were included into our cohort analysis from a prospective international, multicenter AP registry operated by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group. Data on 716 AP cases were analyzed. Six groups were created based on the highest triglyceride level (<1.7 mmol/l, 1.7-2.19 mmol/l, 2.2-5.59 mmol/l, 5.6-11.29 mmol/l, 11.3-22.59 mmol/l, ≥22.6 mmol/l). RESULTS: Hypertriglyceridemia (≥1.7 mmol/l) presented in 30.6% of the patients and was significantly and dose-dependently associated with younger age and male gender. In 7.7% of AP cases, hypertriglyceridemia was considered as a causative etiological factor (≥11.3 mmol/l); however, 43.6% of these cases were associated with other etiologies (alcohol and biliary). Hypertriglyceridemia was significantly and dose-dependently related to obesity and diabetes. The rates of local complications and organ failure and maximum CRP level were significantly and dose-dependently raised by hypertriglyceridemia. Triglyceride above 11.3 mmol/l was linked to a significantly higher incidence of moderately severe AP and longer hospital stay, whereas triglyceride over 22.6 mmol/l was significantly associated with severe AP as well. CONCLUSION: Hypertriglyceridemia dose-dependently aggravates the severity and related complications of AP. Diagnostic workup for hypertriglyceridemia requires better awareness regardless of the etiology of AP.

Genome-wide association study identifies an early onset pancreatic cancer risk locus.

Early onset pancreatic cancer (EOPC) is a rare disease with a very high mortality rate. Almost nothing is known on the genetic susceptibility of EOPC, therefore, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify novel genetic variants specific for patients diagnosed with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) at younger ages. In the first phase, conducted on 821 cases with age of onset ≤60 years, of whom 198 with age of onset ≤50, and 3227 controls from PanScan I-II, we observed four SNPs (rs7155613, rs2328991, rs4891017 and rs12610094) showing an association with EOPC risk (P < 1 × 10-4 ). We replicated these SNPs in the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium and used additional in silico data from PanScan III and PanC4. Among these four variants rs2328991 was significant in an independent set of 855 cases with age of onset ≤60 years, of whom 265 with age of onset ≤50, and 4142 controls from the PANDoRA consortium while in the in silico data, we observed no statistically significant association. However, the resulting meta-analysis supported the association (P = 1.15 × 10-4 ). In conclusion, we propose a novel variant rs2328991 to be involved in EOPC risk. Even though it was not possible to find a mechanistic link between the variant and the function, the association is supported by a solid statistical significance obtained in the largest study on EOPC genetics present so far in the literature.

LIFEStyle, Prevention and Risk of Acute PaNcreatitis (LIFESPAN): protocol of a multicentre and multinational observational case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a life-threatening inflammatory disease of the exocrine pancreas which needs acute hospitalisation. Despite its importance, we have significant lack of knowledge whether the lifestyle factors elevate or decrease the risk of AP or influence the disease outcome. So far, no synthetising study has been carried out examining associations between socioeconomic factors, dietary habits, physical activity, chronic stress, sleep quality and AP. Accordingly, LIFESPAN identifies risk factors of acute pancreatitis and helps to prepare preventive recommendations for lifestyle elements. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: LIFESPAN is an observational, multicentre international case-control study. Participating subjects will create case and control groups. The study protocol was designed according to the SPIRIT guideline. Patients in the case group (n=1700) have suffered from AP (alcohol-induced, n=500; biliary, n=500; hypertriglyceridemiainduced, n=200; other, n=500); the control group subjects have no AP in their medical history. Our study will have three major control groups (n=2200): hospital-based (n=500), population-based (n=500) and aetiology-based (alcohol, n=500; biliary, n=500 and hypertriglyceridemia, n=200). All of them will be matched to the case group individually by gender, age and location of residence. Aggregately, 3900 subjects will be enrolled into the study. The study participants will complete a complex questionnaire with the help of a clinical research administrator/study nurse. Analysis methods include analysis of the continuous and categorical values. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has obtained the relevant ethical approval (54175-2/2018/EKU) and also internationally registered (ISRCTN25940508). After obtaining the final conclusions, we will publish the data to the medical community and will also disseminate our results via open access. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN25940508; Pre-results.

A Multicenter, International Cohort Analysis of 1435 Cases to Support Clinical Trial Design in Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: C-reactive protein level (CRP) and white blood cell count (WBC) have been variably used in clinical trials on acute pancreatitis (AP). We assessed their potential role. METHODS: First, we investigated studies which have used CRP or WBC, to describe their current role in trials on AP. Second, we extracted the data of 1435 episodes of AP from our registry. CRP and WBC on admission, within 24 h from the onset of pain and their highest values were analyzed. Descriptive statistical tools as Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney U, Levene's F tests, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and AUC (Area Under the Curve) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were performed. RESULTS: Our literature review showed extreme variability of CRP used as an inclusion criterion or as a primary outcome or both in past and current trials on AP. In our cohort, CRP levels on admission poorly predicted mortality and severe cases of AP; AUC: 0.669 (CI:0.569-0.770); AUC:0.681 (CI: 0.601-0.761), respectively. CRP levels measured within 24 h from the onset of pain failed to predict mortality or severity; AUC: 0.741 (CI:0.627-0.854); AUC:0.690 (CI:0.586-0.793), respectively. The highest CRP during hospitalization had equally poor predictive accuracy for mortality and severity AUC:0.656 (CI:0.544-0.768); AUC:0.705 (CI:0.640-0.769) respectively. CRP within 24 h from the onset of pain used as an inclusion criterion markedly increased the combined event rate of mortality and severe AP (13% for CRP > 25 mg/l and 28% for CRP > 200 mg/l). CONCLUSION: CRP within 24 h from the onset of pain as an inclusion criterion elevates event rates and reduces the number of patients required in trials on AP.

Antibiotic therapy in acute pancreatitis: From global overuse to evidence based recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Unwarranted administration of antibiotics in acute pancreatitis presents a global challenge. The clinical reasoning behind the misuse is poorly understood. Our aim was to investigate current clinical practices and develop recommendations that guide clinicians in prescribing antibiotic treatment in acute pancreatitis. METHODS: Four methods were used. 1) Systematic data collection was performed to summarize current evidence; 2) a retrospective questionnaire was developed to understand the current global clinical practice; 3) five years of prospectively collected data were analysed to identify the clinical parameters used by medical teams in the decision making process, and finally; 4) the UpToDate Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system was applied to provide evidence based recommendations for healthcare professionals. RESULTS: The systematic literature search revealed no consensus on the start of AB therapy in patients with no bacterial culture test. Retrospective data collection on 9728 patients from 22 countries indicated a wide range (31-82%) of antibiotic use frequency in AP. Analysis of 56 variables from 962 patients showed that clinicians initiate antibiotic therapy based on increased WBC and/or elevated CRP, lipase and amylase levels. The above mentioned four laboratory parameters showed no association with infection in the early phase of acute pancreatitis. Instead, procalcitonin levels proved to be a better biomarker of early infection. Patients with suspected infection because of fever had no benefit from antibiotic therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The authors formulated four consensus statements to urge reduction of unjustified antibiotic treatment in acute pancreatitis and to use procalcitonin rather than WBC or CRP as biomarkers to guide decision-making.