Wealth and education-related inequalities in the utilisation of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health interventions within scheduled tribes in India: an analysis of Odisha and Jharkhand.

BACKGROUND: The utilisation of Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn and Child Health (RMNCH) services remains lower among the Scheduled Tribes (ST) in India than among the rest of the country's population. The tribal population's poorest and least-educated households are further denied access to RMNCH care due to the intersection of their social status, wealth, and education levels. The study analyses the wealth- and education-related inequalities in the utilisation of RMNCH services within the ST population in Odisha and Jharkhand. METHODOLOGY: We have constructed two summary measures, namely, the Co-coverage indicator and a modified Composite Coverage Index (CC), to determine wealth- and education-related inequalities in the utilisation of RMNCH indicators within the ST population in Odisha and Jharkhand. The absolute and relative inequalities with respect to wealth and education within the ST population are estimated by employing the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). RESULTS: The results of the study highlight that access to RMNCH services is easier for women who are better educated and belong to wealthier households. The SII and RII values in the co-coverage indicator and modified CCI exhibit an increase in wealth-related inequalities in Odisha between NFHS-4 (2015-16) and NFHS-5 (2019-21) whereas in Jharkhand, the wealth- and education-related absolute and relative inequalities present a reduction between 2016 and 2021. Among the indicators, utilisation of vaccination was high, while the uptake of Antenatal Care Centre Visits and Vitamin A supplementation should be improved. INTERPRETATION: The study results underscore the urgent need of targeted policies and interventions to address the inequalities in accessing RMNCH services among ST communities. A multi-dimensional approach that considers the socioeconomic, cultural and geographical factors affecting healthcare should be adopted while formulating health policies to reduce inequalities in access to healthcare.

Examining the factors contributing to a reduction in hardship financing among inpatient households in India.

In India, the rising double burden of diseases and the low fiscal capacity of the government forces people to resort to hardship financing. This study aimed to examine the factors contributing to the reduction in hardship financing among inpatient households in India. The study relies on two rounds of National Sample Surveys with a sample of 34,478 households from the 71st round (2014) and 56,681 households from the 75th round (2018). We employed multivariable logistic regression and multivariate decomposition analyses to explore the factors associated with hardship financing in Indian households with hospitalized member(s) and assess the contributing factors to the reduction in hardship financing between 2014 and 2018. Notably, though hardship financing for inpatient households has decreased between 2014 and 2018, households with catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) had higher odds of hardship financing than those without CHE. While factors such as CHE, prolonged hospitalization, and private hospitals had impoverishing effects on hardship financing in 2014 and 2018, the decomposition model showed the potential of CHE (32%), length of hospitalization (32%), and private hospitals (24%) to slow down this negative impact over time. The findings showed the potential for further improvements in financial health protection for inpatient care over time, and underscore the need for continuing efforts to strengthen the implementation of public programs and schemes in India such as Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PMJAY).

Illnesses and hardship financing in India: an evaluation of inpatient and outpatient cases, 2014-18.

BACKGROUND: Progress towards universal health coverage requires strengthening the country's health system. In developing countries, the increasing disease burden puts a lot of stress on scarce household finances. However, this burden is not the same for everyone. The economic burden varies across the disease groups and care levels. Government intervention is vital in formulating policies in addressing financial distress at the household level. In India, even when outpatient care forms a significant proportion of out-of-pocket expenditure, government schemes focus on reducing household expenditure on inpatient care alone. Thus, people resort to hardship financing practices like informal borrowing or selling of assets in the event of health shocks. In this context, the present study aims to identify the disease(s) that correlates with maximum hardship financing for outpatients and inpatients and to understand the change in hardship financing over time. METHODS: We used two waves of National Sample Survey Organisation's data on social consumption on health- the 71st and the 75th rounds. Descriptive statistics are reported, and logistic regression is carried out to explain the adjusted impact of illness on hardship financing. Pooled logistic regression of the two rounds is estimated for inpatients and outpatients. Marginal effects are reported to study the changes in hardship financing over time. RESULTS: The results suggest that cancer had the maximum likelihood of causing hardship financing in India for both inpatients (Odds ratio 2.41; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.03 - 2.86 (71st round), 2.54; 95% CI: 2.21 - 2.93 (75th round)) and outpatients (Odds ratio 6.11; 95% CI: 2.95 - 12.64 (71st round), 3.07; 95% CI: 2.14 - 4.40 (75th round)). In 2018, for outpatients, the hardship financing for health care needs was higher at public health facilities, compared to private health facilities (Odds ratio 0.72; 95% CI: 0.62 - 0.83 (75th round). The marginal effects model of pooled cross-section analysis reveals that from 2014 to 2018, the hardship financing had decreased for inpatients (Odds ratio 0.747; 95% CI:0.80 - -0.70), whereas it had increased for outpatients (Odds ratio 0.0126; 95% CI: 0.01 - 0.02). Our results also show that the likelihood of resorting to hardship financing for illness among women was lesser than that of men. CONCLUSION: Government intervention is quintessential to decrease the hardship financing caused by cancer. The intra-household inequalities play an important role in explaining their hardship financing strategies. We suggest the need for more financial risk protection for outpatient care to address hardship financing.

Stakeholders' Perspective on Working Towards a Healthy Ageing Society: Evidence from a Rapidly Ageing Context.

The combined demographic and epidemiologic transition may significantly challenge the ageing population, especially with a weak health and non-health supporting system. The study aims to elicit the supply side stakeholders' view on healthy ageing and the readiness for a healthy ageing society in the Kerala context, which is one of India's most advanced states in terms of demographic and epidemiologic transition. Data from various stakeholders in the field of Gerontology was collected using semi-structured in-depth interviews. A four-step content analysis and themes identification procedure were followed for the data analysis. The study results reiterated the World Health Organisation's (WHO) conceptualisation of healthy ageing, indicating that the intrinsic and extrinsic factors independently or their interacted effect played a potential role in determining healthy ageing. However, the results also revealed that healthy ageing represents only a partial achievement of successful ageing or ageing well. Quality of life (productive/active ageing) and well-being (happiness and freedom) dimensions are inevitable for successful aging. The four overarching themes emerged for preparing a healthy ageing society include (i) planning and resources, (ii) leadership, governance and implementation, (iii) ageing in place, and (iv) opportunities and challenges. The stakeholders perceived that to work towards a healthy ageing society, there is a crucial role for government and non-government partners at various levels.

Wealth inequalities in nutritional status among the tribal under-5 children in India: A temporal trend analysis using NFHS data of Jharkhand and Odisha states - 2006-21.

Background: Undernutrition remains a major public health concern in India, especially among children belonging to the Scheduled Tribes (ST). In this study, we analyse wealth inequalities in nutritional outcomes within ST communities in two tribal-dominated states of India, namely, Odisha and Jharkhand. The study also compares the trends in nutrition outcomes between ST and Non-ST children in these states. Methods: We have conducted a trend analysis of the prevalence and inequalities in the nutritional indicators among ST children under age five using unit-level data of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) [NFHS-3(2005-06),4 (2015-16) and 5(2019-2021)]. Wealth-related inequalities were analysed using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII), which measures absolute inequality, and the relative Concentration Index (CIX), which measures relative inequality. We have also analysed the correlation between Antenatal Care (ANC) visits and nutritional indicators using the Pearson Correlation test. Results: The trend analysis shows that the prevalence of undernutrition remains higher among ST children in India as compared to Non-ST children between NFHS-3 (2005-06) and NFHS-5 (2019-2020) in Jharkhand and Odisha. The SII and CIX values show that statistically significant inequalities in stunting and underweight exist among children belonging to various wealth quintiles within the ST category in both states. Wasting is found to be significantly prevalent across all wealth quintiles. Also, we found a negative association between ANC visits and all three nutritional indicators. Interpretation: Our study highlights the importance of monitoring both the absolute and relative wealth inequalities in nutritional outcomes. This is due to the fact that while inequalities across groups may reduce, the prevalence of poor nutritional outcomes may increase among certain groups. Such observations, therefore, will enable policymakers to focus further on those groups and devise appropriate interventions.

Predictors of the utilisation of continuum of maternal health care services in India.

BACKGROUND: Utilisation of continuum of maternal health care services is crucial for a healthy pregnancy and childbirth and plays an important role in attaining Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to maternal and child health. This paper aims to assess the percentage of dropouts across various stages of utilization of continuum of maternal health services (CMHS) in India and also investigates the factors hindering the utilization of these services. METHODS: We used recent data from National Family Health Survey(NFHS) encompassing a total sample of 1,70,937 pregnant women for the period 2015-16. The percentage of women dropping out while seeking maternal health care is measured using descriptive statistics. While, the factors impeding the utilization of maternal health services is estimated using a Multinomial Logistic Regression Model, where dependent variable (CMHS) is defined as complete care, incomplete care and no care. RESULTS: Only17% of pregnant women availed the utilisation of complete care and 83% either did not seek any care or dropped after seeking one or two services. For instance, it is found that 79% of women who registered for antenatal care services (ANC) did not avail the same adequately. An empirical investigation of determinants of inadequate utilization of CMHS revealed that factors like individual characteristics, for instance- access to media (RRR: 2.06) and mother's education play (RRR: 3.61) a vital role in the uptake of CMHS. It is also found that the interaction between wealth index and place of residence plays a pivotal role in seeking complete care. Lastly, the results revealed that male participation (RRR: 2.69) and contacting multi-purpose worker (MPW) (RRR: 2.33) are also at play. CONCLUSION: The study suggests that the major determinants of utilisation of CMHS are access to media, mother's education, affordability barriers and male participation. Hence, policy recommendations should be oriented towards strengthening these dimensions and the utilisation of adequate ANC has to be considered as the need of the hour.

Exploring the possible sources of fiscal space for health in India: insights from political regimes.

BACKGROUND: Rising healthcare costs and poor access to health services have become a significant concern for policy-makers; therefore, efforts must be made to generate fiscal space through alternative revenue measures in resource-poor economies. This study attempts to identify possible sources of fiscal space for health in India across political regimes. METHODS: The study followed a descriptive approach to examine the political commitment towards health sector development by estimating the trend of growth in fiscal space indicators over the political regimes from 1998-1999 to 2021-2022 using a dummy variable regression model. RESULTS: We found four possible sources of fiscal space for health, which include (1) raising domestic revenue mobilization, (2) generating alternative revenue collection mechanisms, (3) prioritizing health through expenditure management and (4) effective utilization of central transfer. Fiscal space measures such as goods and services tax reform, collection of health-specific tax, higher excise duty on tobacco products, cooking gas subsidies to poor people, tax administration reform and direct beneficiary transfer of health services could be alternative revenue mobilization channels for fiscal space for health. CONCLUSION: The study reveals that the central government has a political commitment to generating revenue through various fiscal policy reforms. Health has been prioritized over the period, but there is less evidence of health-related political commitment for an increased share of health expenditure to total budgetary allocation. During the last 2 years, however, the health budget has been prioritized due to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis despite slower economic growth in India. This study will be a policy document for fiscal space analysis from a political-economic perspective, and the role of the ministry of finance can be assessed through administrative data and documents.

Horizontal inequity in the utilisation of Continuum of Maternal Health care Services (CMHS) in India: an investigation of ten years of National Rural Health Mission (NRHM).

BACKGROUND: Continuum of Maternal Health Care Services (CMHS) has garnered attention in recent times and reducing socio-economic disparity and geographical variations in its utilisation becomes crucial from an egalitarian perspective. In this study, we estimate inequity in the utilisation of CMHS in India between 2005 and 06 and 2015-16. METHODS: We used two rounds of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) - 2005-06 and 2015-16 encompassing a sample size of 34,560 and 178,857 pregnant women respectively. The magnitude of horizontal inequities (HI) in the utilisation of CMHS was captured by adopting the Erreygers Corrected Concentration indices method. Need-based standardisation was conducted to disentangle the variations in the utilisation of CMHS across different wealth quintiles and state groups.  Further, a decomposition analysis was undertaken to enumerate the contribution of legitimate and illegitimate factors towards health inequity. RESULTS: The study indicates that the pro-rich inequity in the utilisation of CMHS has increased by around 2 percentage points since the implementation of National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), where illegitimate factors are dominant. Decomposition analysis reveals that the contribution of access related barriers plummeted in the considered period of time. The results also indicate that mother's education and access to media continue to remain major contributors of pro-rich inequity in India. Considering, regional variations, it is found that the percentage of pro-rich inequity in high focus group states increased by around 3% between 2005 and 06 and 2015-16. The performance of southern states of India is commendable. CONCLUSIONS: Our study concludes that there exists a pro-rich inequity in the utilisation of CMHS with marked variations across state boundaries. The pro-rich inequity in India has increased between 2005 and 06 and high focus group states suffered predominantly. Decentralisation of healthcare policies and  granting greater power to the states might lead to equitable distribution of CMHS.

Level of inequality and the role of governance indicators in the coverage of reproductive maternal and child healthcare services: Findings from India.

BACKGROUND: Diligent monitoring of inequalities in the coverage of essential reproductive, maternal, new-born and child health related (RMNCH) services becomes imperative to smoothen the journey towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this study, we aim to measure the magnitude of inequalities in the coverage of RMNCH services. We also made an attempt to divulge the relationship between the various themes of governance and RMNCH indices. METHODS: We used National Family Health Survey dataset (2015-16) and Public Affairs Index (PAI), 2016 for the analysis. Two summative indices, namely Composite Coverage Index (CCI) and Co-Coverage (Co-Cov) indicator were constructed to measure the RMNCH coverage. Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were employed to measure inequality in the distribution of coverage of RMNCH. In addition, we have used Spearman's rank correlation matrix to glean the association between governance indicator and coverage indices. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates an erratic distribution in the coverage of CCI and Co-Cov across wealth quintiles and state groups. We found that the distribution of RII values for Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal hovered around 1. Whereas, RII values for Haryana was 2.01 indicating maximum inequality across wealth quintiles. Furthermore, the essential interventions like adequate antenatal care services (ANC4) and skilled birth attendants (SBA) were the most inequitable interventions, while tetanus toxoid and Bacilli Calmette- Guerin (BCG) were least inequitable. The Spearman's rank correlation matrix demonstrated a strong and positive correlation between governance indicators and coverage indices.

Inequity in health care utilization for common childhood illnesses in India: measurement and decomposition analysis using the India demographic and health survey 2015-16.

BACKGROUND: Though child mortality has dropped remarkably, it is considerably high in South Asia. Across the globe, 5.2 million children under 5 years of age died in 2019, and India accounts for a significant portion of these deaths. Common childhood illnesses are the leading cause of these deaths. Seeking care from formal providers can reduce these avoidable deaths. Inequity is a crucial blockage in optimum utilization of medical treatment for children. Hence, the present study analyzes the inequalities and horizontal inequities in utilizing the medical treatment for diarrhea, fever, acute respiratory infection (ARI), and any of these common childhood illnesses in India and across the Indian states. The study also attempts to locate significant contributors to these inequalities. METHODS: The study used 0 to 59 months children's data sourced from the Demographic and Health Survey, India (2015-16). Concentration Index (CI) and Erreygers Corrected Concentration Index (EI) were used to measure the inequalities. The Horizontal Inequity Index (HII) was deployed to estimate inequity. The decomposition method introduced by Erreygers was applied to determine the significant contributors of inequalities. RESULTS: The EI in medical treatment-seeking for common childhood illnesses was 0.16, while the HII was 0.15. The highest inequality was perceived in the utilization of medical treatment for ARI (0.17). The primary contributing factors of these inequalities were continuum of maternal care (18.7%), media exposure (12%), affordability (9.3%), place of residence (9.1%), mother's education (8.5%), and state groups (8.8%). The North-Eastern states showed the highest level of inequality across the Indian states. CONCLUSION: The study reveals that the horizontal inequity in medical treatment utilization for children in India is pro-rich. The findings of the study suggest that attuning the efforts of existing maternal and child health programs into one seamless chain of care can bring the inequalities down and improve the utilization of child health care services. The spread of health education through different media sources, reaching out to rural and remote places with adequate health personnel, and easing out the financial hardship in accessing medical treatment could be the cornerstone in accelerating the utilization level amongst the impoverished children.

Assessing the household economic burden of non-communicable diseases in India: evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys.

BACKGROUND: Financing for NCDs is encumbered by out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) assuming catastrophic proportions. Therefore, it is imperative to investigate the extent of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) on NCDs, which are burgeoning in India. Thus, our paper aims to examine the extent of CHE and impoverishment in India, in conjunction with socio-economic determinants impacting the CHE. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from nationwide healthcare surveys conducted in 2014 and 2017-18. OOPE on both outpatient and inpatient treatment was coalesced to estimate CHE on NCDs. Incidence of CHE was defined as proportion of households with OOPE exceeding 10% of household expenditure. Intensity of catastrophe was ascertained by the measure of Overshoot and Mean Positive Overshoot Indices. Further, impoverishing effects of OOPE were assessed by computing Poverty Headcount Ratio and Poverty Gap Index using India's official poverty line. Concomitantly, we estimated the inequality in incidence and intensity of catastrophic payments using Concentration Indices. Additionally, we delineated the factors associated with catastrophic expenditure using Multinomial Logistic Regression. RESULTS: Results indicated enormous incidence of CHE with around two-third households with NCDs facing CHE. Incidence of CHE was concentrated amongst poor that further extended from 2014(CI = - 0.027) to 2017-18(CI = - 0.065). Intensity of CHE was colossal as households spent 42.8 and 34.9% beyond threshold in 2014 and 2017-18 respectively with poor enduring greater overshoot vis-à-vis rich (CI = - 0.18 in 2014 and CI = - 0.23 in 2017-18). Significant immiserating impact of NCDs was unraveled as one-twelfth in 2014 and one-eighth households in 2017-18 with NCD burden were pushed to poverty with poverty deepening effect to the magnitude of 27.7 and 30.1% among those already below poverty on account of NCDs in 2014 and 2017-18 respectively. Further, large inter-state heterogeneities in extent of CHE and impoverishment were found and multivariate analysis indicated absence of insurance cover, visiting private providers, residing in rural areas and belonging to poorest expenditure quintile were associated with increased likelihood of incurring CHE. CONCLUSION: Substantial proportion of households face CHE and subsequent impoverishment due to NCD related expenses. Concerted efforts are required to augment the financial risk protection to the households, especially in regions with higher burden of NCDs.

Horizontal inequity in self-reported morbidity and untreated morbidity in India: Evidence from National Sample Survey Data.

BACKGROUND: Health outcomes in India are characterized by pervasive inequities due to deeply entrenched socio-economic gradients amongst the population. Therefore, it is imperative to investigate these systematic disparities in health, however, evidence of inequities does not commensurate with its policy objectives in India. Thus, our paper aims to examine the magnitude of and trends in horizontal inequities in self-reported morbidity and untreated morbidity in India over the period of 2004 to 2017-18. METHODS: The study used cross-sectional data from nationwide healthcare surveys conducted in 2004, 2014 and 2017-18 encompassing sample size of 3,85,055; 3,35,499 and 5,57,887 individuals respectively. Erreygers concentration indices were employed to discern the magnitude and trend in horizontal inequities in self-reported morbidity and untreated morbidity. Need standardized concentration indices were further used to unravel the inter-regional and intra-regional income related inequities in outcomes of interest. Additionally, regression based decomposition approach was applied to ascertain the contributions of both legitimate and illegitimate factors in the measured inequalities. RESULTS: Estimates were indicative of profound inequities in self-reported morbidity as inequity indices were positive and significant for all study years, connoting better-off reporting more morbidity, given their needs. These inequities however, declined marginally from 2004(HI: 0.049, p< 0.01) to 2017-18(HI: 0.045, P< 0.01). Untreated morbidity exhibited pro-poor inequities with negative concentration indices. Albeit, significant reduction in horizontal inequity was found from 2004(HI= - 0.103, p< 0.01) to 2017-18(HI = - 0.048, p< 0.01) in treatment seeking over the years. The largest contribution of inequality for both outcomes stemmed from illegitimate variables in all the study years. Our findings also elucidated inter-state heterogeneities in inequities with high-income states like Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and West Bengal evincing inequities greater than all India estimates and Northeastern states divulged equity in reporting morbidity. Inequities in untreated morbidity converged for most states except in Punjab, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh where widening of inequities were observed from 2004 to 2017-18. CONCLUSIONS: Pro-rich and pro-poor inequities in reported and untreated morbidities respectively persisted from 2004 to 2017-18 despite reforms in Indian healthcare. Magnitude of these inequities declined marginally over the years. Health policy in India should strive for targeted interventions closing inequity gap.

Geographical accessibility and spatial coverage modelling of public health care network in rural and remote India.

BACKGROUND: Long distances to facilities, topographical constraints, inadequate service capacity of institutions and insufficient/ rudimentary road & transportation network culminate into unprecedented barriers to access. These barriers gets exacerbated in presence of external factors like conflict and political disruptions. Thus, this study was conducted in rural, remote and fragile region in India measuring geographical accessibility and modelling spatial coverage of public healthcare network. METHODS: Vector and raster based approaches were used to discern accessibility for various packages of service delivery. Alternative scenarios derived from local experiences were modelled using health facility, population and ancillary data. Based on that, a raster surface of travel time between facilities and population was developed by incorporating terrain, physical barriers, topography and travelling modes and speeds through various land-cover classes. Concomitantly, spatial coverage was modelled to delineate catchment areas. Further, underserved population and zonal statistics were assessed in an interactive modelling approach to ascertain spatial relationship between population, travel time and zonal boundaries. Finally, raster surface of travel time was re-modelled for the conflict situation in villages vulnerable to obstruction of access due to disturbed security scenario. RESULTS: Euclidean buffers revealed 11% villages without ambulatory & immunization care within 2 km radius. Similarly, for 5 km radius, 11% and 12% villages were bereft of delivery and inpatient care. Travel time accessibility analysis divulged walking scenario exhibiting lowest level of accessibility. Enabling motorized travel improved accessibility measures, with highest degree of accessibility for privately owned vehicle (motorcycle and cars). Differential results were found between packages of services where ambulatory & immunization care was relatively accessible by walking; whereas, delivery and inpatient care had a staggering average of three hours walking time. Even with best scenario, around 2/3rd population remained unserved for all package of services. Moreover, 90% villages in conflict zone grapples with inaccessibility when the scenario of heightened border tensions was considered. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated the application of GIS technique to facilitate evidence backed planning at granular level. Regardless of the scenario, the analysis divulged inaccessibility to delivery and inpatient care to be most pronounced and majority of population to be unserved. It was suggested to have concerted efforts to bolster already existing facilities and adapt systems approach to exploit synergies of inter-sectoral development.

Capacity-need gap in hospital resources for varying mitigation and containment strategies in India in the face of COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Due to uncertainties encompassing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, mathematical models informing the trajectory of disease are being proposed throughout the world. Current pandemic is also characterized by surge in hospitalizations which has overwhelmed even the most resilient health systems. Therefore, it is imperative to assess health system preparedness in tandem with need projections for comprehensive outlook. OBJECTIVE: We attempted this study to forecast the need for hospital resources for one year period and correspondingly assessed capacity and tipping points of Indian health system to absorb surges in need due to COVID-19. METHODS: We employed age-structured deterministic SEIR model and modified it to allow for testing and isolation capacity to forecast the need under varying scenarios. Projections for documented cases were made for varying degree of containment and mitigation strategies. Correspondingly, data on health resources was collated from various government records. Further, we computed daily turnover of each of these resources which was then adjusted for proportion of cases requiring mild, severe and critical care to arrive at maximum number of COVID-19 cases manageable by health care system of India. FINDINGS: Our results revealed pervasive deficits in the capacity of public health system to absorb surge in need during peak of epidemic. Also, model suggests that continuing strict lockdown measures in India after mid-May 2020 would have been ineffective in suppressing total infections significantly. Augmenting testing to 1,500,000 tests per day during projected peak (mid-September) under social-distancing measures and current test to positive rate of 9.7% would lead to more documented cases (60, 000, 000 to 90, 000, 000) culminating to surge in demand for hospital resources. A minimum allocation of 13x, 70x and 37x times more beds for mild cases, ICU beds and mechanical ventilators respectively would be required to commensurate with need under that scenario. However, if testing capacity is limited to 9,000,000 tests per day (current situation as of 19th August 2020) under continued social-distancing measures, documented cases would plummet significantly, still requiring 5x, 31x and 16x times the current allocated resources (beds for mild cases, ICU beds and mechanical ventilators respectively) to meet unmet need for COVID-19 treatment in India.

Impact of macro-fiscal determinants on health financing: empirical evidence from low-and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Health financing is a major challenge in low-and middle-income counties (LMICs) for achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Past studies have argued that the budgetary allocation on health financing depends on macro-fiscal policies of an economy such as sustained economic growth and higher revenue mobilization. While the global financial crisis of late 2008 observed a shortage of financial resources in richer countries and adversely affected the health sector. Therefore, this study has examined the impact of macro-fiscal policies on health financing by adopting socioeconomic factors in 85 LMICs for the period 2000 to 2013. METHODS: The study has employed the panel System Generalized Method of Moment model that captures the endogeneity problem in the regression estimation by adopting appropriate instrumental variables. RESULTS: The elasticity of public health expenditure (PHE) with respect to macro-fiscal factors varies across LMICs. Tax revenue shows a positive and statistically significant relationship with PHE in full sample, pre-global financial crisis, middle-income, and coefficient value varies from 0.040 to 0.141%. Fiscal deficit and debt services payment shows a negative effect on PHE in full sample, as well as sub-samples and coefficient value, varies from 0.001 to 0.032%. Aging and per capita income show an expected positive relationship with PHE in LIMI countries. CONCLUSIONS: Favorable macro-fiscal policies would necessarily raise finance for the health sector development but the prioritization of health budget allocation during the crisis period depends on the nature of tax revenue mobilization and demand for health services. Therefore, the generation of health-specific revenues and effective usage of health budget would probably accelerate the progress towards the achievement of UHC.

Good Health at Low Cost 25 years on: lessons for the future of health systems strengthening.

In 1985, the Rockefeller Foundation published Good health at low cost to discuss why some countries or regions achieve better health and social outcomes than do others at a similar level of income and to show the role of political will and socially progressive policies. 25 years on, the Good Health at Low Cost project revisited these places but looked anew at Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kyrgyzstan, Thailand, and the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, which have all either achieved substantial improvements in health or access to services or implemented innovative health policies relative to their neighbours. A series of comparative case studies (2009-11) looked at how and why each region accomplished these changes. Attributes of success included good governance and political commitment, effective bureaucracies that preserve institutional memory and can learn from experience, and the ability to innovate and adapt to resource limitations. Furthermore, the capacity to respond to population needs and build resilience into health systems in the face of political unrest, economic crises, and natural disasters was important. Transport infrastructure, female empowerment, and education also played a part. Health systems are complex and no simple recipe exists for success. Yet in the countries and regions studied, progress has been assisted by institutional stability, with continuity of reforms despite political and economic turmoil, learning lessons from experience, seizing windows of opportunity, and ensuring sensitivity to context. These experiences show that improvements in health can still be achieved in countries with relatively few resources, though strategic investment is necessary to address new challenges such as complex chronic diseases and growing population expectations.