Consistent stoichiometric long-term relationships between nutrients and chlorophyll-a across shallow lakes.

Aquatic ecosystems are threatened by eutrophication from nutrient pollution. In lakes, eutrophication causes a plethora of deleterious effects, such as harmful algal blooms, fish kills and increased methane emissions. However, lake-specific responses to nutrient changes are highly variable, complicating eutrophication management. These lake-specific responses could result from short-term stochastic drivers overshadowing lake-independent, long-term relationships between phytoplankton and nutrients. Here, we show that strong stoichiometric long-term relationships exist between nutrients and chlorophyll a (Chla) for 5-year simple moving averages (SMA, median R² = 0.87) along a gradient of total nitrogen to total phosphorus (TN:TP) ratios. These stoichiometric relationships are consistent across 159 shallow lakes (defined as average depth < 6 m) from a cross-continental, open-access database. We calculate 5-year SMA residuals to assess short-term variability and find substantial short-term Chla variation which is weakly related to nutrient concentrations (median R² = 0.12). With shallow lakes representing 89% of the world's lakes, the identified stoichiometric long-term relationships can globally improve quantitative nutrient management in both lakes and their catchments through a nutrient-ratio-based strategy.

100 years of anthropogenic impact causes changes in freshwater functional biodiversity.

Despite efforts from scientists and regulators, biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate. Unless we find transformative solutions to preserve biodiversity, future generations may not be able to enjoy nature's services. We have developed a conceptual framework that establishes the links between biodiversity dynamics and abiotic change through time and space using artificial intelligence. Here, we apply this framework to a freshwater ecosystem with a known history of human impact and study 100 years of community-level biodiversity, climate change and chemical pollution trends. We apply explainable network models with multimodal learning to community-level functional biodiversity measured with multilocus metabarcoding, to establish correlations with biocides and climate change records. We observed that the freshwater community assemblage and functionality changed over time without returning to its original state, even if the lake partially recovered in recent times. Insecticides and fungicides, combined with extreme temperature events and precipitation, explained up to 90% of the functional biodiversity changes. The community-level biodiversity approach used here reliably explained freshwater ecosystem shifts. These shifts were not observed when using traditional quality indices (e.g. Trophic Diatom Index). Our study advocates the use of high-throughput systemic approaches on long-term trends over species-focused ecological surveys to identify the environmental factors that cause loss of biodiversity and disrupt ecosystem functions.

Over long periods of time, environmental changes ­ such as chemical pollution and climate change ­ affect the diversity of organisms that live in an ecosystem, known as 'biodiversity'. Understanding the impact of these changes is challenging because they can happen slowly, their effect is only measurable after years, and historical records are limited. This can make it difficult to determine when specific changes happened, what might have driven them and what impact they might be having. One way to measure changes in biodiversity over time is by analysing traces of DNA shed by organisms. Plants, animals, and bacteria living in lakes leave behind genetic material that gets trapped and buried in the sediment at the bottom of lakes. Similarly, biocides ­ substances used to kill or control populations of living organisms ­ that run-off into lakes leach into the sediment and can be measured years later. Therefore, this sediment holds a record of life and environmental impacts in the lake over past centuries. Eastwood, Zhou et al. wanted to understand the relationship between environmental changes (such as the use of biocides and climate change) and shifts in lake biodiversity. To do so, the researchers studied a lake community that had experienced major environmental impacts over the last century (including nutrient pollution, chemical pollution and climate change), but which appeared to improve over the last few years of the 20^th century. Using machine learning to find connections over time between biodiversity and non-living environmental changes, Eastwood, Zhou et al. showed that, despite apparent recovery in water quality, the biodiversity of the lake was not restored to its original state. A combination of climate factors (such as rainfall levels and extreme temperatures) and biocide application (particularly insecticides and fungicides) explained up to 90% of the biodiversity changes that occurred in the lake. These changes had not been identified before using traditional techniques. The functional roles microorganisms played in the ecosystem (such as degradation and nitrogen metabolism) were also altered, suggesting that loss of biodiversity may lead to loss of ecosystem functions. The findings described by Eastwood, Zhou et al. can be used by environmental regulators to identify species or ecosystems at risk from environmental change and prioritise them for intervention. The approach can also be used to identify which chemicals pose the greatest threat to biodiversity. Additionally, the use of environmental DNA from sediment can provide rich historical biodiversity data, which can be used to train artificial intelligence-based models to improve predictions of how ecosystems will respond to complex environmental changes.

Bimodality and alternative equilibria do not help explain long-term patterns in shallow lake chlorophyll-a.

Since its inception, the theory of alternative equilibria in shallow lakes has evolved and been applied to an ever wider range of ecological and socioecological systems. The theory posits the existence of two alternative stable states or equilibria, which in shallow lakes are characterised by either clear water with abundant plants or turbid water where phytoplankton dominate. Here, we used data simulations and real-world data sets from Denmark and north-eastern USA (902 lakes in total) to examine the relationship between shallow lake phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a) and nutrient concentrations across a range of timescales. The data simulations demonstrated that three diagnostic tests could reliably identify the presence or absence of alternative equilibria. The real-world data accorded with data simulations where alternative equilibria were absent. Crucially, it was only as the temporal scale of observation increased (>3 years) that a predictable linear relationship between nutrient concentration and chlorophyll-a was evident. Thus, when a longer term perspective is taken, the notion of alternative equilibria is not required to explain the response of chlorophyll-a to nutrient enrichment which questions the utility of the theory for explaining shallow lake response to, and recovery from, eutrophication.

Changes in Water Chemistry Associated with Rainstorm Events Increase Carbon Emissions from the Inflowing River Mouth of a Major Drinking Water Reservoir.

Large reservoirs are hotspots for carbon emissions, and the continued input and decomposition of terrestrial dissolved organic matter (DOM) from upstream catchments is an important source of carbon emissions. Rainstorm events can cause a surge in DOM input; however, periodic sampling often fails to fully capture the impact of these discrete rainstorm events on carbon emissions. We conducted a set of frequent observations prior to and following a rainstorm event in a major reservoir Lake Qiandao (China; 580 km2) from June to July 2021 to investigate how rainstorms alter water chemistry and CO2 and CH4 emissions. We found that the mean CO2 efflux (FCO2) (13.2 ± 9.3 mmol m-2 d-1) and CH4 efflux (FCH4) (0.12 ± 0.02 mmol m-2 d-1) in the postrainstorm campaign were significantly higher than those in the prerainstorm campaign (-3.8 ± 3.0 and +0.06 ± 0.02 mmol m-2 d-1, respectively). FCO2 and FCH4 increased with increasing nitrogen and phosphorus levels, elevated DOM absorption (a350), specific UV absorbance SUVA254, and terrestrial humic-like fluorescence. Furthermore, FCO2 and FCH4 decreased with increasing chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), dissolved oxygen (DO), and pH. A five-day laboratory anoxic bioincubation experiment further revealed a depletion of terrestrial-DOM concurrent with increased CO2 and CH4 production. We conclude that rainstorms boost the emission of CO2 and CH4 fueled by the surge and decomposition of fresh terrestrially derived biolabile DOM in this and likely many other reservoir's major inflowing river mouths.

Changes in Phytoplankton Community Composition and Phytoplankton Cell Size in Response to Nitrogen Availability Depend on Temperature.

The climate-driven changes in temperature, in combination with high inputs of nutrients through anthropogenic activities, significantly affect phytoplankton communities in shallow lakes. This study aimed to assess the effect of nutrients on the community composition, size distribution, and diversity of phytoplankton at three contrasting temperature regimes in phosphorus (P)-enriched mesocosms and with different nitrogen (N) availability imitating eutrophic environments. We applied imaging flow cytometry (IFC) to evaluate complex phytoplankton communities changes, particularly size of planktonic cells, biomass, and phytoplankton composition. We found that N enrichment led to the shift in the dominance from the bloom-forming cyanobacteria to the mixed-type blooming by cyanobacteria and green algae. Moreover, the N enrichment stimulated phytoplankton size increase in the high-temperature regime and led to phytoplankton size decrease in lower temperatures. A combination of high temperature and N enrichment resulted in the lowest phytoplankton diversity. Together these findings demonstrate that the net effect of N and P pollution on phytoplankton communities depends on the temperature conditions. These implications are important for forecasting future climate change impacts on the world's shallow lake ecosystems.

Combined effects of eutrophication and warming on polyunsaturated fatty acids in complex phytoplankton communities: A mesocosm experiment.

Climate change and eutrophication are among the main stressors of shallow freshwater ecosystems, and their effects on phytoplankton community structure and primary production have been studied extensively. However, their combined effects on the algal production of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), specifically, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are currently unresolved. Moreover, the proximate reasons for changes in phytoplankton EPA and DHA concentrations are unclear, i.e., the relative importance of ecological (changes in the community composition) vs. ecophysiological (within taxa changes in EPA and DHA levels) factors. We investigated the responses of phytoplankton EPA and DHA concentrations to warming (IPCC climate scenario) and nutrient additions in mesocosms which had been run continuously at varying temperature and nutrient levels for 15 years prior to this study. Nutrient treatment had a significant effect on phytoplankton EPA and DHA concentrations and about 59 % of the variation in EPA and DHA concentrations could be explained by changes in the phytoplankton community structure. Increased biomass of diatoms corresponded with high EPA and DHA concentrations, while cyanobacteria/chlorophyte dominated mesocosm had low EPA and DHA concentrations. Warming had only a marginal effect on the EPA and DHA concentrations in these mesocosms. However, a significant interaction was observed with warming and N:P ratio. Our findings indicate that direct nutrient/temperature effects on algal physiology and PUFA metabolism were negligible and the changes in EPA and DHA concentrations were mostly related to the phytoplankton community structure and biomass. These results also imply that in shallow temperate lakes eutrophication, leading to increased dominance of cyanobacteria, will probably be a greater threat to phytoplankton EPA and DHA production than warming. EPA and DHA are nutritionally important for upper trophic level consumers and decreased production may impair secondary production.

Seabird-mediated transport of organohalogen compounds to remote sites (North West Greenland polynya).

The role of sea birds as carriers of pollutants over long distances was evaluated by analyzing organochlorine and organobromine compounds in lake sediment cores from three remote sites around the North Water polynya (North West Greenland). One lake, NOW5, was in the vicinity of a little auk (Alle alle L.) bird colony, whereas the other two lakes, NOW14 and Q5, were undisturbed by seabirds. The former was strongly acidic (pH = 3.4) but the latter had a pH close to 8. Due to the guano loading, NOW5 exhibited higher chlorophyll concentrations (74 µg/L) than the other two lakes (1.6-3.4 µg/L), higher content of total phosphorous (0.34 mg/L vs. 0.007-0.01 mg/L) and total nitrogen (3.75 mg/L vs. 0.21-0.75 mg/L). The concentrations of all organohalogen compounds were substantially greater in NOW5 than in the other lakes, indicating the strong influence of these seabirds in the transport and deposition of these compounds to remote sites. However, not all compounds showed the same increases. Hexachlorocyclohexanes and endosulfans were more than 18 times higher in NOW5, the drin pesticides and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), between 9.5 and 18 times and DDTs, polybromodiphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) and chlordanes about 2.7-6 times. These differences demonstrated that the bird-mediated deposition has preservation effects of the less stable and more volatile compounds, e.g. those with log Kaw < -2.4, log Koa < 9 and/or log Kow < 6.8. The sedimentary fluxes of PCBs, HCHs, drins, chlordanes, PBDEs, HCB and endosulfans were highest in the upper sediment layer of the polynya lake (year 2014). In contrast, the highest DDT fluxes were found in 1980. These trends indicate that despite restrictions and regulations, bird transport continues to introduce considerable amounts of organohalogen pollutants to the Arctic regions with the exception of DDTs, which show successful decline, even when mediated by bird metabolism.

Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change.

High Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world's northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400-4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200-1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.

Semi-automated classification of colonial Microcystis by FlowCAM imaging flow cytometry in mesocosm experiment reveals high heterogeneity during seasonal bloom.

A machine learning approach was employed to detect and quantify Microcystis colonial morphospecies using FlowCAM-based imaging flow cytometry. The system was trained and tested using samples from a long-term mesocosm experiment (LMWE, Central Jutland, Denmark). The statistical validation of the classification approaches was performed using Hellinger distances, Bray-Curtis dissimilarity, and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The semi-automatic classification based on well-balanced training sets from Microcystis seasonal bloom provided a high level of intergeneric accuracy (96-100%) but relatively low intrageneric accuracy (67-78%). Our results provide a proof-of-concept of how machine learning approaches can be applied to analyze the colonial microalgae. This approach allowed to evaluate Microcystis seasonal bloom in individual mesocosms with high level of temporal and spatial resolution. The observation that some Microcystis morphotypes completely disappeared and re-appeared along the mesocosm experiment timeline supports the hypothesis of the main transition pathways of colonial Microcystis morphoforms. We demonstrated that significant changes in the training sets with colonial images required for accurate classification of Microcystis spp. from time points differed by only two weeks due to Microcystis high phenotypic heterogeneity during the bloom. We conclude that automatic methods not only allow a performance level of human taxonomist, and thus be a valuable time-saving tool in the routine-like identification of colonial phytoplankton taxa, but also can be applied to increase temporal and spatial resolution of the study.

Warming and eutrophication interactively drive changes in the methane-oxidizing community of shallow lakes.

Freshwater ecosystems are the largest natural source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4), with shallow lakes a particular hot spot. Eutrophication and warming generally increase lake CH4 emissions but their impacts on the sole biological methane sink-methane oxidation-and methane-oxidizer community dynamics are poorly understood. We used the world's longest-running freshwater climate-change mesocosm experiment to determine how methane-oxidizing bacterial (MOB) abundance and composition, and methane oxidation potential in the sediment respond to eutrophication, short-term nitrogen addition and warming. After nitrogen addition, MOB abundance and methane oxidation potential increased, while warming increased MOB abundance without altering methane oxidation potential. MOB community composition was driven by both temperature and nutrient availability. Eutrophication increased relative abundance of type I MOB Methyloparacoccus. Warming favoured type II MOB Methylocystis over type I MOB Methylomonadaceae, shifting the MOB community from type I dominance to type I and II co-dominance, thereby altering MOB community traits involved in growth and stress-responses. This shift to slower-growing MOB may explain why higher MOB abundance in warmed mesocosms did not coincide with higher methane oxidation potential. Overall, we show that eutrophication and warming differentially change the MOB community, resulting in an altered ability to mitigate CH4 emissions from shallow lakes.

Phage Display to Augment Biomaterial Function.

Biomaterial design relies on controlling interactions between materials and their biological environments to modulate the functions of proteins, cells, and tissues. Phage display is a powerful tool that can be used to discover peptide sequences with high affinity for a desired target. When incorporated into biomaterial design, peptides identified via phage display can functionalize material surfaces to control the interaction between a biomaterial and its local microenvironment. A targeting peptide has high specificity for a given target, allowing for homing a specific protein, cell, tissue, or other material to a biomaterial. A functional peptide has an affinity for a given protein, cell, or tissue, but also modulates its target's activity upon binding. Biomaterials can be further enhanced using a combination of targeting and/or functional peptides to create dual-functional peptides for bridging two targets or modulating the behavior of a specific protein or cell. This review will examine current and future applications of phage display for the augmentation of biomaterials.

Are nitrous oxide emissions indirectly fueled by input of terrestrial dissolved organic nitrogen in a large eutrophic Lake Taihu, China?

Lakes actively transform nitrogen (N) and emit disproportionately large amounts of N2O relative to their surface area. Studies have investigated the relative importance of denitrification or nitrification on N2O emissions; however, the linkage between N2O efflux and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and carbon (DOC) remains largely unknown. Long-term (2012-2017) seasonal field observations and a series of degradation experiments were used to unravel how DON composition impacts N2O emissions from Lake Taihu, China. In the northwestern part of the lake, large riverine inflow and high N2O emissions occur in all seasons (24.6 ± 25.2 µmol m-2 d-1), coincident with high levels of terrestrial DON and DOC here. The degradation of labile DON and DOC likely enhanced ammonification as supported by the correlations between NH4+-N and DON, DOC, a(350), and terrestrial humic-like C3. The area with large riverine inputs in the northwestern part of the lake was characterized by low DO which may enhance incomplete aerobic nitrification and incomplete denitrification, both leading to N2O production. Twenty days laboratory experiments indicated greater N2O production in the northwest inflow samples (N2O on day 20: 120.9 nmol L-1 and 17.3 nmol L-1 for bio- and photo-degradation samples, respectively) compared with the central lake samples (N2O on day 20: 20.3 nmol L-1 and 12.3 nmol L-1 for bio- and photo-degradation samples, respectively), despite both having low Chl-a. Our DON and DOC degradation experiments confirmed the occurrence of ammonification along with consumption of NH4+-N and thereafter NO3--N. Our results collectively suggest that terrestrial DON fueled ammonification, enhanced nitrification and incomplete denitrification, and thereby became an important contributor to the N2O efflux from Lake Taihu.

Autochthonous dissolved organic matter potentially fuels methane ebullition from experimental lakes.

Shallow lakes are hotspots for carbon processing and important natural sources of methane (CH4) emission. Ebullitive CH4 flux may constitute the overwhelming majority of total CH4 flux, but the episodic nature of ebullition events makes determining both quantity and the controlling factors challenging. Here we used the world's longest running shallow-lake mesocosm facility, where the experimental treatments are low and high nutrients crossed with three temperatures, to investigate the quantity and drivers of CH4 ebullition. The mean CH4 ebullition flux in the high nutrient treatment (41.5 ±â€¯52.3 mg CH4-C m-2 d-1) mesocosms was significantly larger than in the low nutrient treatment (3.6 ±â€¯5.4 mg CH4-C m-2 d-1) mesocosms, varying with temperature scenarios. Over eight weeks from June to August covered here warming resulted in a weak, but insignificant enhancement of CH4 ebullition. We found significant positive relationships between ebullition and chlorophyll-a, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), biodegradable DOC, δ2H, δ18O and δ13C-DOC, autochthonous dissolved organic matter (DOM) fluorescent components, and a fraction of lipids, proteins, and lignins revealed using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry, and a negative relationship between ebullitive CH4 flux and the percentage volume inhabited of macrophytes. A 24 h laboratory bio-incubation experiment performed at room temperature (20 ±â€¯2 °C) in the dark further revealed a rapid depletion of algal-DOM concurrent with a massive increased CH4 production, whereas soil-derived DOM had a limited effect on CH4 production. We conclude that eutrophication likely induced the loss of macrophytes and increase in algal biomass, and the resultant accumulation algal derived bio-labile DOM potentially drives enhanced outgassing of ebullitive CH4 from the shallow-lake mesocosms.

Effects of warming and nutrients on the microbial food web in shallow lake mesocosms.

We analysed changes in the abundance, biomass and cell size of the microbial food web community (bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, ciliates) at contrasting nutrient concentrations and temperatures during a simulated heat wave. We used 24 mesocosms mimicking shallow lakes in which two nutrient levels (unenriched and enriched by adding nitrogen and phosphorus) and three different temperature scenarios (ambient, IPCC A2 scenario and A2+%50) are simulated (4 replicates of each). Experiments using the mesocosms have been running un-interrupted since 2003. A 1-month heat wave was imitated by an extra 5 °C increase in the previously heated mesocosms (from 1st July to 1st August 2014). Changes in water temperature induced within a few days a strong effect on the microbial food web functioning, demonstrating a quick response of microbial communities to the changes in environment, due to their short generation times. Warming and nutrients showed synergistic effects. Microbial assemblages of heterotrophic nanoflagellates and ciliates responded positively to the heating, the increase being largest in the enriched mesocosms. The results indicate that warming and nutrients in combination can set off complex interactions in the microbial food web functioning.

Response of Submerged Macrophyte Communities to External and Internal Restoration Measures in North Temperate Shallow Lakes.

Submerged macrophytes play a key role in north temperate shallow lakes by stabilizing clear-water conditions. Eutrophication has resulted in macrophyte loss and shifts to turbid conditions in many lakes. Considerable efforts have been devoted to shallow lake restoration in many countries, but long-term success depends on a stable recovery of submerged macrophytes. However, recovery patterns vary widely and remain to be fully understood. We hypothesize that reduced external nutrient loading leads to an intermediate recovery state with clear spring and turbid summer conditions similar to the pattern described for eutrophication. In contrast, lake internal restoration measures can result in transient clear-water conditions both in spring and summer and reversals to turbid conditions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that these contrasting restoration measures result in different macrophyte species composition, with added implications for seasonal dynamics due to differences in plant traits. To test these hypotheses, we analyzed data on water quality and submerged macrophytes from 49 north temperate shallow lakes that were in a turbid state and subjected to restoration measures. To study the dynamics of macrophytes during nutrient load reduction, we adapted the ecosystem model PCLake. Our survey and model simulations revealed the existence of an intermediate recovery state upon reduced external nutrient loading, characterized by spring clear-water phases and turbid summers, whereas internal lake restoration measures often resulted in clear-water conditions in spring and summer with returns to turbid conditions after some years. External and internal lake restoration measures resulted in different macrophyte communities. The intermediate recovery state following reduced nutrient loading is characterized by a few macrophyte species (mainly pondweeds) that can resist wave action allowing survival in shallow areas, germinate early in spring, have energy-rich vegetative propagules facilitating rapid initial growth and that can complete their life cycle by early summer. Later in the growing season these plants are, according to our simulations, outcompeted by periphyton, leading to late-summer phytoplankton blooms. Internal lake restoration measures often coincide with a rapid but transient colonization by hornworts, waterweeds or charophytes. Stable clear-water conditions and a diverse macrophyte flora only occurred decades after external nutrient load reduction or when measures were combined.

The history of seabird colonies and the North Water ecosystem: Contributions from palaeoecological and archaeological evidence.

The North Water (NOW) polynya is one of the most productive marine areas of the Arctic and an important breeding area for millions of seabirds. There is, however, little information on the dynamics of the polynya or the bird populations over the long term. Here, we used sediment archives from a lake and peat deposits along the Greenland coast of the NOW polynya to track long-term patterns in the dynamics of the seabird populations. Radiocarbon dates show that the thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) and the common eider (Somateria mollissima) have been present for at least 5500 cal. years. The first recorded arrival of the little auk (Alle alle) was around 4400 cal. years BP at Annikitsoq, with arrival at Qeqertaq (Salve Ø) colony dated to 3600 cal. years BP. Concentrations of cadmium and phosphorus (both abundant in little auk guano) in the lake and peat cores suggest that there was a period of large variation in bird numbers between 2500 and 1500 cal. years BP. The little auk arrival times show a strong accord with past periods of colder climate and with some aspects of human settlement in the area.

On the crucial importance of a small bird: The ecosystem services of the little auk (Alle alle) population in Northwest Greenland in a long-term perspective.

The little auk is the most numerous seabird in the North Atlantic and its most important breeding area is the eastern shores of the North Water polynya. Here, a population of an estimated 33 million pairs breeds in huge colonies and significantly shapes the ecosystem. Archaeological remains in the colonies document that the little auk has been harvested over millennia. Anthropological research discloses how the little auk has a role both as social engineer and as a significant resource for the Inughuit today. The hunting can be practiced without costly equipment, and has no gender and age discrimination in contrast to the dominant hunt for marine mammals. Little auks are ecological engineers in the sense that they transport vast amounts of nutrients from sea to land, where the nutrients are deposited as guano. Here, the fertilized vegetation provides important foraging opportunities for hares, geese, fox, reindeer, and the introduced muskox. We estimate that the relative muskox density is ten times higher within 1 km of little auk fertilized vegetation hotspots.

Living in an oasis: Rapid transformations, resilience, and resistance in the North Water Area societies and ecosystems.

Based on lake sediment data, archaeological findings, and historical records, we describe rapid transformations, resilience and resistance in societies and ecosystems, and their interactions in the past in the North Water area related to changes in climate and historical events. Examples are the formation of the polynya itself and the early arrival of people, ca. 4500 years ago, and later major human immigrations (different societies, cultural encounters, or abandonment) from other regions in the Arctic. While the early immigrations had relatively modest and localised effect on the ecosystem, the later-incoming culture in the early thirteenth century was marked by extensive migrations into and out of the area and abrupt shifts in hunting technologies. This has had long-lasting consequences for the local lake ecosystems. Large natural transformations in the ecosystems have also occurred over relatively short time periods related to changes in the polynya. Finally, we discuss the future perspectives for the North Water area given the many threats, but also opportunities.

Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy.

There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.