Real-World Evidence of Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibodies for Preventing Hospitalization and Mortality in COVID-19 Outpatients.

BACKGROUND: Neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) were authorized for the treatment of COVID-19 outpatients based on clinical trials completed early in the pandemic, which were underpowered for mortality and subgroup analyses. Real-world data studies are promising for further assessing rapidly deployed therapeutics. RESEARCH QUESTION: Did mAb treatment prevent progression to severe disease and death across pandemic phases and based on risk factors, including prior vaccination status? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This observational cohort study included nonhospitalized adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection from November 2020 to October 2021 using electronic health records from a statewide health system plus state-level vaccine and mortality data. Using propensity matching, we selected approximately 2.5 patients not receiving mAbs for each patient who received mAb treatment under emergency use authorization. The primary outcome was 28-day hospitalization; secondary outcomes included mortality and hospitalization severity. RESULTS: Of 36,077 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 2,675 receiving mAbs were matched to 6,677 patients not receiving mAbs. Compared with mAb-untreated patients, mAb-treated patients had lower all-cause hospitalization (4.0% vs 7.7%; adjusted OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.38-0.60) and all-cause mortality (0.1% vs 0.9%; adjusted OR, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.03-0.29) to day 28; differences persisted to day 90. Among hospitalized patients, mAb-treated patients had shorter hospital length of stay (5.8 vs 8.5 days) and lower risk of mechanical ventilation (4.6% vs 16.6%). Results were similar for preventing hospitalizations during the Delta variant phase (adjusted OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.25-0.50) and across subgroups. Number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent hospitalization was lower for subgroups with higher baseline risk of hospitalization; for example, multiple comorbidities (NNT = 17) and not fully vaccinated (NNT = 24) vs no comorbidities (NNT = 88) and fully vaccinated (NNT = 81). INTERPRETATION: Real-world data revealed a strong association between receipt of mAbs and reduced hospitalization and deaths among COVID-19 outpatients across pandemic phases. Real-world data studies should be used to guide practice and policy decisions, including allocation of scarce resources.

Real-World Evidence of the Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody Sotrovimab for Preventing Hospitalization and Mortality in COVID-19 Outpatients.

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether sotrovimab, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody (mAb) treatment authorized for early symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, is also effective in preventing the progression of severe disease and mortality following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant infection. METHODS: In an observational cohort study of nonhospitalized adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1 October 2021-11 December 2021, using electronic health records from a statewide health system plus state-level vaccine and mortality data, we used propensity matching to select 3 patients not receiving mAbs for each patient who received outpatient sotrovimab treatment. The primary outcome was 28-day hospitalization; secondary outcomes included mortality and severity of hospitalization. RESULTS: Of 10 036 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 522 receiving sotrovimab were matched to 1563 not receiving mAbs. Compared to mAb-untreated patients, sotrovimab treatment was associated with a 63% decrease in the odds of all-cause hospitalization (raw rate 2.1% vs 5.7%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], .19-.66) and an 89% decrease in the odds of all-cause 28-day mortality (raw rate 0% vs 1.0%; aOR, 0.11; 95% CI, .0-.79), and may reduce respiratory disease severity among those hospitalized. CONCLUSIONS: Real-world evidence demonstrated sotrovimab effectiveness in reducing hospitalization and all-cause 28-day mortality among COVID-19 outpatients during the Delta variant phase.

The Intersection of Telemedicine and Wilderness Care: Past, Present, and Future.

Wilderness medicine and telemedicine seemingly exist at opposite ends of the clinical continuum. However, these 2 specialties share a common history and the literature abounds with examples of successful deployment of telemedicine to resource limited settings. The recent widespread adoption of telemedicine has important ramifications for wilderness providers. Telemedicine is inherently reliant on some sort of technology. There is a wide spectrum of complexity involved, but in general these systems rely on a hardware component, a software component, and a network system to transmit information from place to place. Today, connectivity is nearly ubiquitous through access to cellular networks, Wi-Fi, or communication satellites. However, bandwidth, defined as the amount of data which can be transmitted through a given connection over time, remains a limiting factor for many austere settings. Telemedicine services are typically organized into 4 categories: 1) live/interactive; 2) store and forward; 3) remote patient monitoring; and 4) mHealth. Each of these categories has an applicable wilderness medicine use case which will be reviewed in this paper. Though the regulatory environment remains complex, there is enormous potential for telemedicine to enhance the practice of wilderness medicine. Drones are likely to transform wilderness medicine supply chains by facilitating delivery of food, shelter, and medicines and are able to enhance search and rescue efforts. Remote consultations can be paired with remote patient monitoring technology to deliver highly specialized care to austere environments. Early feasibility studies are promising, but further prospective data will be required to define future best practices for wilderness telemedicine.

Real World Evidence of the Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody Sotrovimab for Preventing Hospitalization and Mortality in COVID-19 Outpatients.

Background: It is not known whether sotrovimab, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody (mAb) treatment authorized for early symptomatic COVID-19 patients, is effective against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant to prevent progression to severe disease and mortality. Methods: Observational cohort study of non-hospitalized adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection from October 1 st 2021 - December 11 th 2021, using electronic health records from a statewide health system plus state-level vaccine and mortality data. We used propensity matching to select 3 patients not receiving mAbs for each patient who received outpatient sotrovimab treatment. The primary outcome was 28-day hospitalization; secondary outcomes included mortality and severity of hospitalization. Results: Of 10,036 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 522 receiving sotrovimab were matched to 1,563 not receiving mAbs. Compared to mAb-untreated patients, sotrovimab treatment was associated with a 63% decrease in the odds of all-cause hospitalization (raw rate 2.1% versus 5.7%; adjusted OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.19-0.66) and an 89% decrease in the odds of all-cause 28-day mortality (raw rate 0% versus 1.0%; adjusted OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.0-0.79), and may reduce respiratory disease severity among those hospitalized. Conclusion: Real-world evidence demonstrated sotrovimab effectiveness in reducing hospitalization and all-cause 28-day mortality among COVID-19 outpatients during the Delta variant phase.

Temporal associations between emergency department and telehealth volumes during the COVID-19 pandemic: A time-series analysis from 2 academic medical centers.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic compelled healthcare systems to rapidly adapt to changing healthcare needs as well as identify ways to reduce COVID transmission. The relationship between pandemic-related trends in emergency department (ED) visits and telehealth urgent care visits have not been studied. METHODS: We performed an interrupted time series analysis to evaluate trends between ED visits and telehealth urgent medical care visits at two urban healthcare system in Colorado. We performed pairwise comparisons between baseline versus each COVID-19 surge and all three surges combined, for both ED and telehealth encounters at each site and used Wilcoxon rank sum test to compare median values. RESULTS: During the study period, 595,350 patient encounters occurred. We saw ED visits decline in correlation with rising telehealth visits during each COVID surge. CONCLUSIONS: During initial COVID surges, ED visits declined while telehealth visits rose in inverse correlation with falling ED visits, suggesting that some patients shifted their preferred location for clinical care. As EDs cope with future staffing during the ongoing COVID pandemic, telehealth represents an opportunity for emergency physicians and a means to align patients desires for virtual care with ED volumes and staffing.

Real World Evidence of Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibodies for Preventing Hospitalization and Mortality in COVID-19 Outpatients.

BACKGROUND: Neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are authorized for early symptomatic COVID-19 patients. Whether mAbs are effective against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, among vaccinated patients, or for prevention of mortality remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of mAb treatment in preventing progression to severe disease during the Delta phase of the pandemic and based on key baseline risk factors. DESIGN SETTING AND PATIENTS: Observational cohort study of non-hospitalized adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection from November 2020-October 2021, using electronic health records from a statewide health system plus state-level vaccine and mortality data. Using propensity matching, we selected approximately 2.5 patients not receiving mAbs for each patient who received mAbs. EXPOSURE: Neutralizing mAb treatment under emergency use authorization. MAIN OUTCOMES: The primary outcome was 28-day hospitalization; secondary outcomes included mortality and severity of hospitalization. RESULTS: Of 36,077 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 2,675 receiving mAbs were matched to 6,677 not receiving mAbs. Compared to mAb-untreated patients, mAb-treated patients had lower all-cause hospitalization (4.0% vs 7.7%; adjusted OR 0.48, 95%CI 0.38-0.60) and all-cause mortality (0.1% vs. 0.9%; adjusted OR 0.11, 95%CI 0.03-0.29) to day 28; differences persisted to day 90. Among hospitalized patients, mAb-treated patients had shorter hospital length of stay (5.8 vs. 8.5 days) and lower risk of mechanical ventilation (4.6% vs. 16.6%). Relative effectiveness was similar in preventing hospitalizations during the Delta variant phase (adjusted OR 0.35, 95%CI 0.25-0.50) and across subgroups. Lower number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent hospitalization were observed for subgroups with higher baseline risk of hospitalization (e.g., multiple comorbidities (NNT=17) and not fully vaccinated (NNT=24) vs. no comorbidities (NNT=88) and fully vaccinated (NNT=81). CONCLUSION: Real-world evidence demonstrated mAb effectiveness in reducing hospitalization among COVID-19 outpatients, including during the Delta variant phase, and conferred an overall 89% reduction in 28-day mortality. Early outpatient treatment with mAbs should be prioritized, especially for individuals with highest risk for hospitalization.

Wilderness Medical Society Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Prevention and Management of Tick-Borne Illness in the United States.

The Wilderness Medical Society convened an expert panel to develop evidence-based guidelines for the prevention and management of tick-borne illness (TBI). Recommendations are graded based on quality of supporting evidence according to criteria put forth by the American College of Chest Physicians. The guidelines include a brief review of the clinical presentation, epidemiology, prevention, and management of TBI in the United States, with a primary focus on interventions that are appropriate for resource-limited settings. Strong recommendations are provided for the use of DEET, picaridin, and permethrin; tick checks; washing and drying clothing at high temperatures; mechanical tick removal within 36 h of attachment; single-dose doxycycline for high-risk Lyme disease exposures versus "watchful waiting;" evacuation from backcountry settings for symptomatic tick exposures; and TBI education programs. Weak recommendations are provided for the use of light-colored clothing; insect repellents other than DEET, picaridin, and permethrin; and showering after exposure to tick habitat. Weak recommendations are also provided against passive methods of tick removal, including the use of systemic and local treatments. There was insufficient evidence to support the use of long-sleeved clothing and the avoidance of tick habitat such as long grasses and leaf litter. Although there was sound evidence supporting Lyme disease vaccination, a grade was not offered as the vaccine is not currently available for use in the United States.

Effort Thrombosis Presenting as Unilateral "Pumped" Arm in a Climber.

Upper extremity injuries are common among the growing population of climbers. Although conditions affecting musculoskeletal structures are the most common causes of symptoms, a comprehensive differential diagnosis is necessary to avoid the misdiagnosis of high-morbidity conditions in this patient population. We present a case of a climber with acute edema, erythema, and pain of the entire right upper extremity. After confirmation of an upper extremity deep vein thrombosis by ultrasound, and in the absence of secondary causes for his thrombotic process, he was diagnosed with effort thrombosis. The patient was treated acutely with anticoagulation, catheter thrombectomy, direct thrombolysis, and balloon angioplasty followed by surgical decompression of the subclavian vein. Owing to the importance of early diagnosis and initiation of treatment, it is critical to keep disorders affecting the upper thoracic vascular structures in consideration.

Antibiotic Prescribing Patterns for Sinusitis Within a Direct-to-Consumer Virtual Urgent Care.

Background:Direct-to-consumer virtual visits are increasingly popular across both for-profit and nonprofit healthcare systems.Introduction:Virtual visits offer a convenient affordable way for patients to obtain medical care for simple conditions such as sinusitis and uncomplicated urinary tract infections. However, virtual visits have been associated with increased antibiotic utilization when compared with traditional in-person care.Methods:In this retrospective cohort study, antibiotic utilization for acute sinusitis was compared between patients treated through a direct-to-consumer virtual urgent care versus a matched cohort treated through traditional urgent care.Results:Fifty-seven patients were treated for acute sinusitis within the virtual care cohort, whereas 100 patients were treated in the traditional care arm. Antibiotic utilization for acute sinusitis was lower when care was delivered virtually using live-interactive video (67%) than when using traditional urgent care (92%) (p < 0.001). When care was delivered virtually, age, gender, and care delivery modality (telephone vs. video) were not associated with antibiotic utilization for acute sinusitis.Discussion:Concerns have been raised that care delivered virtually does not meet expected quality standards when compared with traditional care. Antibiotic utilization has been used as an example of this quality gap. In this study, we demonstrate that antibiotic utilization was lower in a virtual care cohort than when care was delivered by emergency medicine physicians based in an academic setting. This suggests that awareness and sensitivity to prescribing guidelines may be more important than care delivery modality as it relates to antibiotic utilization.Conclusions:It is possible to deliver care virtually for acute sinusitis without increasing antibiotic utilization.

Avalanche Fatalities in the United States: A Change in Demographics.

OBJECTIVE: To describe demographic patterns in avalanche fatalities in the United States during the past 6 decades according to geographic location and preavalanche activity. METHODS: The Colorado Avalanche Information Center currently manages the National Avalanche Accident Dataset. This dataset describes deidentified avalanche fatalities beginning in 1951. Covariates included age, sex, month, state of occurrence, and preavalanche activity. Both absolute and proportional avalanche fatalities were calculated by year and by each covariate. A linear regression model was used to trend the proportion of avalanche fatalities stratified by covariate. RESULTS: There were 925 recorded avalanche fatalities in the United States between 1951 and 2013. There were an average of 15 ± 11 fatalities/y (mean ± SD; range, 0 to 40 fatalities/y). The mean (+/- SD) age was 29 ± 6.6 years (range, 6-67 years), and 86% were men. Total avalanche fatalities have increased linearly (R(2) = 0.68). Despite the highest number of total deaths in Colorado (n = 253), the proportion of avalanche fatalities in Colorado decreased (-5% deaths/decade; P = .01). Snowmobilers are now the largest group among fatalities and accounted for 23% of deaths (n = 213). The proportion of snowmobile fatalities has increased (+7% deaths/decade; P < .01), as has the proportion of snowboarder fatalities (+2% deaths/decade; P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Avalanche fatalities have increased. This is most likely related to an overall rise in backcountry utilization. Fatalities have increased among snowmobilers and snowboarders. Despite a rise in backcountry utilization, avalanche fatalities in Colorado are decreasing. A strategy of focused training and education aimed toward at-risk groups could result in lower avalanche fatalities.

Medical Knowledge and Preparedness of Climbers on Colorado's 14,000-Foot Peaks.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the medical knowledge and preparedness of mountain climbers on Colorado's 14,000-foot peaks and to compare differences in knowledge and preparedness based on demographics, training, and difficulty of the climb. METHODS: Mountain climbers from 11 14,000-foot peaks in Colorado were surveyed at the time of summiting. These peaks represented every major mountain range and class of difficulty in Colorado. Marijuana use and demographic information including age, gender, state of residence, and income level was collected in the survey. In addition, participants were scored on medical knowledge and preparedness using a novel assessment tool. Scores were then compared and statistically analyzed. RESULTS: Mountain climbers scored 2.84 ± 1.25 and 3.92 ± 1.20 out of 6.00 on medical knowledge and preparedness, respectively. Medical training was shown to be the only significant predictor of medical knowledge, whereas age, race, income, and group status were all shown to be significant predictors of preparedness. It was shown that 9.4% of participants were using marijuana. Only 25% of individuals climbing class 3 mountains elected to wear helmets. CONCLUSIONS: Most mountain climbers had no formal wilderness medicine training and did worse on the medical knowledge assessment than those who did have training. Consistent with previous studies, participants performed poorly on the medical knowledge assessment. As such, ways to improve wilderness medical knowledge among outdoor recreationalists should be sought. The low rate of helmet use on Colorado's technical peaks represents an important area for education and injury prevention.

A New Proposal for Management of Severe Frostbite in the Austere Environment.

Despite advances in outdoor clothing and medical management of frostbite, individuals still experience catastrophic amputations. This is a particular risk for those in austere environments, due to resource limitations and delayed definitive treatment. The emerging best therapies for severe frostbite are thrombolytics and iloprost. However, they must be started within 24 hours after rewarming for recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) and within 48 hours for iloprost. Evacuation of individuals experiencing frostbite from remote environments within 24 to 48 hours is often impossible. To date, use of these agents has been confined to hospitals, thus depriving most individuals in the austere environment of the best treatment. We propose that thrombolytics and iloprost be considered for field treatment to maximize chances for recovery and reduce amputations. Given the small but potentially serious risk of complications, rt-PA should only be used for grade 4 frostbite where amputation is inevitable, and within 24 hours of rewarming. Prostacyclin has less risk and can be used for grades 2 to 4 frostbite within 48 hours of rewarming. Until more field experience is reported with these agents, their use should probably be restricted to experienced physicians. Other modalities, such as local nerve blocks and improving oxygenation at high altitude may also be considered. We submit that it remains possible to improve frostbite outcomes despite delayed evacuation using resource-limited treatment strategies. We present 2 cases of frostbite treated with rt-PA at K2 basecamp to illustrate feasibility and important considerations.

Development of cultured Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage malaria cell banks for early phase in vivo clinical trial assessment of anti-malaria drugs and vaccines.

BACKGROUND: The ability to undertake controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) studies for preliminary evaluation of malaria vaccine candidates and anti-malaria drug efficacy has been limited by the need for access to sporozoite infected mosquitoes, aseptic, purified, cryopreserved sporozoites or blood-stage malaria parasites derived ex vivo from malaria infected individuals. Three different strategies are described for the manufacture of clinical grade cultured malaria cell banks suitable for use in CHMI studies. METHODS: Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP)-grade Plasmodium falciparum NF54, clinically isolated 3D7, and research-grade P. falciparum 7G8 blood-stage malaria parasites were cultured separately in GMP-compliant facilities using screened blood components and then cryopreserved to produce three P. falciparum blood-stage malaria cell banks. These cell banks were evaluated according to specific criteria (parasitaemia, identity, viability, sterility, presence of endotoxin, presence of mycoplasma or other viral agents and in vitro anti-malarial drug sensitivity of the cell bank malaria parasites) to ensure they met the criteria to permit product release according to GMP requirements. RESULTS: The P. falciparum NF54, 3D7 and 7G8 cell banks consisted of >78% ring stage parasites with a ring stage parasitaemia of >1.4%. Parasites were viable in vitro following thawing. The cell banks were free from contamination with bacteria, mycoplasma and a broad panel of viruses. The P. falciparum NF54, 3D7 and 7G8 parasites exhibited differential anti-malarial drug susceptibilities. The P. falciparum NF54 and 3D7 parasites were susceptible to all anti-malaria compounds tested, whereas the P. falciparum 7G8 parasites were resistant/had decreased susceptibility to four compounds. Following testing, all defined release criteria were met and the P. falciparum cell banks were deemed suitable for release. Ethical approval has been obtained for administration to human volunteers. CONCLUSIONS: The production of cultured P. falciparum blood-stage malaria cell banks represents a suitable approach for the generation of material suitable for CHMI studies. A key feature of this culture-based approach is the ability to take research-grade material through to a product suitable for administration in clinical trials.

Whole-Genome Sequences of 80 Environmental and Clinical Isolates of Burkholderia pseudomallei.

Here, we present the draft genome sequences of 80 isolates of Burkholderia pseudomallei. The isolates represent clinical cases of melioidosis and environmental isolates from regions in Australia and Papua New Guinea where B. pseudomallei is endemic. The genomes provide further context for the diversity of the pathogen.

Employee perception of a mandated helmet policy at Vail Resorts.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to measure support for a mandated helmet policy among resort employees along with the impact of such a policy on job satisfaction, and additionally, to measure the prevalence of barriers to helmet use among this population. METHODS: In all, 728 Vail Resort employees were surveyed regarding their opinions on the helmet policy and on general helmet use. RESULTS: The majority of the 728 employees surveyed (66.5%; 95% CI: 63% to 70%) agreed with the helmet policy. Only 18% (95% CI: 16% to 21%) reported a negative effect on job satisfaction. Older employees (>25 years old) were more likely to disagree with the policy (odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% CI: 2.2 to 4.3) and report a negative effect on job satisfaction (OR 4.8; 95% CI: 3.0 to 7.6). Skiers were much more likely than snowboarders to report a negative effect on job satisfaction (OR 9.8; 95% CI: 5.2 to 18.1). Among resort employees, ski patrollers were more likely to disagree with the mandate (OR 9.8; 95% CI: 6.8 to 13.9) and report a negative effect on job satisfaction (OR 13.2; 95% CI: 8.3 to 21.). Forty-three percent of participants (95% CI: 39% to 46%) agreed with the statement that wearing a helmet encourages reckless behavior whereas 51.0% (95% CI: 47% to 54%) believed that wearing a helmet limits sensory perception. CONCLUSIONS: A mandatory helmet use policy was supported by most resort employees. However, ski patrollers and older, more experienced employees were more likely to report a negative effect on job satisfaction. Barriers to helmet use continue to persist in the ski industry and represent a target for further educational efforts.

Emergency bedside ultrasound diagnosis of superior mesenteric artery dissection complicating acute aortic dissection.

BACKGROUND: A timely diagnosis of aortic dissection is associated with lower mortality. The use of emergent bedside ultrasound has been described to diagnose aortic dissection. However, there is limited literature regarding the use of bedside ultrasound to identify superior mesenteric artery dissection, a known high-risk feature of aortic dissection. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to present a case of superior mesenteric artery dissection identified by bedside ultrasound and review the utility of bedside ultrasound in the diagnosis of aortic emergencies. CASE REPORT: We report a case of superior mesenteric artery dissection found on emergent bedside ultrasound in a 46-year-old male complaining of abdominal pain with a history of cocaine abuse and prior aortic dissection. Bedside ultrasound in the emergency department revealed an intimal flap in the descending aorta with extension into the superior mesenteric artery prompting early surgical consultation before computed tomography because of concern for acute mesenteric ischemia. CONCLUSION: Superior mesenteric artery dissection is a high-risk feature of aortic dissection and can be identified with emergent bedside ultrasound.

Validation of the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score in patients with the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS).

OBJECTIVE: To prospectively and externally validate the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score as a predictor of 28-day mortality in patients who present to the emergency department with a systemic inflammatory response syndrome. DESIGN: Multicentered prospective cohort study. SETTING: Emergency departments at the University of Colorado Hospital and Denver Health Medical Center in Denver, CO, and Albert Einstein Medical Center and the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, PA. SUBJECTS: Adult patients who presented to the emergency department, who met criteria for systemic inflammatory response syndrome, and who were admitted to the hospital. MEASUREMENTS: The MEDS score was calculated by recording the presence of terminal illness, tachypnea or hypoxemia, septic shock, platelet count <150,000 cells/mm3, band count as a percentage of total white blood cell count >5%, age >65 yrs, lower respiratory infection, nursing home residence, and altered mental status. OUTCOME: Mortality within 28 days or discharged alive from the hospital. RESULTS: In all, 385 patients were enrolled between 18 and 100 yrs of age. The overall mortality was 9%. As in the original article, the MEDS score was categorized into five groups: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high for 28-day mortality. Mortality rates for each group were 0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0%-3%), 5% (95% CI, 1%-13%), 19% (95% CI, 11%-29%), 32% (95% CI, 15%-54%), and 40% (95% CI, 12%-74%), respectively. The MEDS score had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.83-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: The MEDS score accurately predicts 28-day mortality in patients who present to the emergency department with systemic inflammatory response syndrome and who are admitted to the hospital.

Determination of capsaicinoids in habanero peppers by chemometric analysis of UV spectral data.

A novel spectrophotometric method for the determination of capsaicinoids in habanero pepper extracts is described that does not require prior analyte separation. The method uses partial-least-squares (PLS-1) multivariate regression modeling techniques in conjunction with ordinary UV absorption spectral data obtained on alcoholic extracts of habanero peppers (Capsicum chinese). The PLS-1 regression models were developed by correlating the known total concentration of the two major capsaicinoids (capsaicin and dihydrocapsaicin) in the extracts as determined by high-performance liquid chromatography with the spectral data. The regression models were subsequently validated with laboratory-prepared test sets. The validation studies revealed that the root-mean-square error of prediction varied from 4 to 8 ppm, based on the results obtained from models prepared from nine test sets. Once a regression model has been developed and validated, analyses of the extracts can be accomplished rapidly by ordinary spectrophotometric procedures without any prior separation steps.