Political Alliance Formation and Cooperation Networks in the Utah State Legislature.

Social network analysis has become an increasingly important tool among political scientists for understanding legislative cooperation in modern, democratic nation-states. Recent research has demonstrated the influence that group affinity (homophily) and mutual exchanges (reciprocity) have in structuring political relationships. However, this literature has typically focused on political cooperation where costs are low, relationships are not exclusive, and/or partisan competition is high. Patterns of legislative behavior in alternative contexts are less clear and remain largely unexamined. Here, we compare theoretical expectations of cooperation in these contexts from the political and biosocial sciences and implement the first assessment of political alliance formation in a novel legislative environment where costs to cooperation are high and party salience low. We implement a stochastic actor-oriented model (SAOM) to examine bill floor sponsorship, a process in which a "floor sponsor" becomes the exclusive advocate for a colleague's piece of legislation, in the Utah state legislature from 2005 to 2008-a context in which gender (male) and political party (Republican) supermajorities exist. We find that (1) party and gender homophily predict who legislators recruit as floor sponsors, whereas seniority does not, and (2) legislators frequently engage in reciprocal exchanges of floor sponsorship. In addition, whereas gender homophily increases the likelihood of reciprocity, party homophily decreases it. Our findings suggest that when the cost of cooperation is high, political actors use in-group characteristics for initiating alliances, but once a cooperative relationship is established with an out-group political member, it is reinforced through repeated exchanges. These findings may be useful for understanding the rise of political polarization and gridlock in democracies internationally.

NDVI predicts birth seasonality in historical Baja California Sur, Mexico: adaptive responses to arid ecosystems and the North American Monsoon.

Birth seasonality is a phenomenon whereby populations can be characterized by a single month or season in which births peak. While non-human animal research suggests that seasonal birth-pulses are related to variation in climate and local energy availability, social scientists debate the mechanisms responsible for it in humans. Here we investigate the role of precipitation, temperature, and energy availability on seasonal conception and birth pulses using a historical dataset from the Baja California peninsula - a hot, arid desert that experiences seasonal climatic fluctuations associated with the North American Monsoon. Analyses suggest that 1) local energy availability had a negative relationship with conception pulses; and 2) birth pulses had a positive relationship with local energy availability and a negative relationship with temperature. Taken together, our analyses suggest that women timed conceptions when local energy availability was lowest (challenging expectations of conception rates as simply reflecting ecological influences on female fecundity), so that children were born during the seasonal "green-up" associated with the North American Monsoon. Given our results, we speculate that birth seasonality represents a form of traditional ecological knowledge to improve neonate health and wellbeing.