Brazil's sugarcane embitters the EU-Mercosur trade talks.

The Brazilian government's decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited EU concerns regarding the sustainability of Brazil's sugar sector, hindering the ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. Meanwhile, in the EU, certain conventional biofuels face stricter controls, whilst uncertainty surrounding the commercialisation of more sustainable advanced-biofuels renders bioethanol as a short- to medium-term fix. This paper examines Brazil's land-use changes and associated greenhouse gas emissions arising from an EU driven ethanol import policy and projections for other 13 biocommodities. Results suggest that Brazil's sugarcane could satisfy growing ethanol demand and comply with EU environmental criteria, since almost all sugarcane expansion is expected to occur on long-established pasturelands in the South and Midwest. However, expansion of sugarcane is also driven by competition for viable lands with other relevant commodities, mainly soy and beef. As a result, deforestation trends in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes linked to soy and beef production could jeopardize Brazil's contribution to the Paris agreement with an additional 1 ± 0.3 billion CO2eq tonnes above its First NDC target by 2030. Trade talks with a narrow focus on a single commodity could thus risk unsustainable outcomes, calling for systemic sustainability benchmarks, should the deal be ratified.

Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon.

It has been suggested that rainfall in the Amazon decreases if forest loss exceeds some threshold, but the specific value of this threshold remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the relationship between historical deforestation and rainfall at different geographical scales across the Southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA). We also assess impacts of deforestation policy scenarios on the region's agriculture. Forest loss of up to 55-60% within 28 km grid cells enhances rainfall, but further deforestation reduces rainfall precipitously. This threshold is lower at larger scales (45-50% at 56 km and 25-30% at 112 km grid cells), while rainfall decreases linearly within 224 km grid cells. Widespread deforestation results in a hydrological and economic negative-sum game, because lower rainfall and agricultural productivity at larger scales outdo local gains. Under a weak governance scenario, SBA may lose 56% of its forests by 2050. Reducing deforestation prevents agricultural losses in SBA up to US$ 1 billion annually.