Association of the Quick Sequential (Sepsis-Related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) Score With Excess Hospital Mortality in Adults With Suspected Infection in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Importance: The quick Sequential (Sepsis-Related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score has not been well-evaluated in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Objective: To assess the association of qSOFA with excess hospital death among patients with suspected infection in LMICs and to compare qSOFA with the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria. Design, Settings, and Participants: Retrospective secondary analysis of 8 cohort studies and 1 randomized clinical trial from 2003 to 2017. This study included 6569 hospitalized adults with suspected infection in emergency departments, inpatient wards, and intensive care units of 17 hospitals in 10 LMICs across sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Exposures: Low (0), moderate (1), or high (≥2) qSOFA score (range, 0 [best] to 3 [worst]) or SIRS criteria (range, 0 [best] to 4 [worst]) within 24 hours of presentation to study hospital. Main Outcomes and Measures: Predictive validity (measured as incremental hospital mortality beyond that predicted by baseline risk factors, as a marker of sepsis or analogous severe infectious course) of the qSOFA score (primary) and SIRS criteria (secondary). Results: The cohorts were diverse in enrollment criteria, demographics (median ages, 29-54 years; males range, 36%-76%), HIV prevalence (range, 2%-43%), cause of infection, and hospital mortality (range, 1%-39%). Among 6218 patients with nonmissing outcome status in the combined cohort, 643 (10%) died. Compared with a low or moderate score, a high qSOFA score was associated with increased risk of death overall (19% vs 6%; difference, 13% [95% CI, 11%-14%]; odds ratio, 3.6 [95% CI, 3.0-4.2]) and across cohorts (P < .05 for 8 of 9 cohorts). Compared with a low qSOFA score, a moderate qSOFA score was also associated with increased risk of death overall (8% vs 3%; difference, 5% [95% CI, 4%-6%]; odds ratio, 2.8 [95% CI, 2.0-3.9]), but not in every cohort (P < .05 in 2 of 7 cohorts). High, vs low or moderate, SIRS criteria were associated with a smaller increase in risk of death overall (13% vs 8%; difference, 5% [95% CI, 3%-6%]; odds ratio, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.4-2.0]) and across cohorts (P < .05 for 4 of 9 cohorts). qSOFA discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.70 [95% CI, 0.68-0.72]) was superior to that of both the baseline model (AUROC, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.53-0.58; P < .001) and SIRS (AUROC, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.57-0.62]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: When assessed among hospitalized adults with suspected infection in 9 LMIC cohorts, the qSOFA score identified infected patients at risk of death beyond that explained by baseline factors. However, the predictive validity varied among cohorts and settings, and further research is needed to better understand potential generalizability.

Performance of critical care prognostic scoring systems in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models-used in critical care medicine for mortality predictions, for benchmarking and for illness stratification in clinical trials-have been validated predominantly in high-income countries. These results may not be reproducible in low or middle-income countries (LMICs), not only because of different case-mix characteristics but also because of missing predictor variables. The study objective was to systematically review literature on the use of critical care prognostic models in LMICs and assess their ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors at hospital discharge of those admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), their calibration, their accuracy, and the manner in which missing values were handled. METHODS: The PubMed database was searched in March 2017 to identify research articles reporting the use and performance of prognostic models in the evaluation of mortality in ICUs in LMICs. Studies carried out in ICUs in high-income countries or paediatric ICUs and studies that evaluated disease-specific scoring systems, were limited to a specific disease or single prognostic factor, were published only as abstracts, editorials, letters and systematic and narrative reviews or were not in English were excluded. RESULTS: Of the 2233 studies retrieved, 473 were searched and 50 articles reporting 119 models were included. Five articles described the development and evaluation of new models, whereas 114 articles externally validated Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score and Mortality Probability Models or versions thereof. Missing values were only described in 34% of studies; exclusion and or imputation by normal values were used. Discrimination, calibration and accuracy were reported in 94.0%, 72.4% and 25% respectively. Good discrimination and calibration were reported in 88.9% and 58.3% respectively. However, only 10 evaluations that reported excellent discrimination also reported good calibration. Generalisability of the findings was limited by variability of inclusion and exclusion criteria, unavailability of post-ICU outcomes and missing value handling. CONCLUSIONS: Robust interpretations regarding the applicability of prognostic models are currently hampered by poor adherence to reporting guidelines, especially when reporting missing value handling. Performance of mortality risk prediction models in LMIC ICUs is at best moderate, especially with limitations in calibration. This necessitates continued efforts to develop and validate LMIC models with readily available prognostic variables, perhaps aided by medical registries.

A data platform to improve rabies prevention, Sri Lanka.

PROBLEM: In Sri Lanka, rabies prevention initiatives are hindered by fragmented and delayed information-sharing that limits clinicians' ability to follow patients and impedes public health surveillance. APPROACH: In a project led by the health ministry, we adapted existing technologies to create an electronic platform for rabies surveillance. Information is entered by trained clinical staff, and both aggregate and individual patient data are visualized in real time. An automated short message system (SMS) alerts patients for vaccination follow-up appointments and informs public health inspectors about incidents of animal bites. LOCAL SETTING: The platform was rolled out in June 2016 in four districts of Sri Lanka, linking six rabies clinics, three laboratories and the public health inspectorate. RELEVANT CHANGES: Over a 9-month period, 12 121 animal bites were reported to clinics and entered in the registry. Via secure portals, clinicians and public health teams accessed live information on treatment and outcomes of patients started on post-exposure prophylaxis (9507) or receiving deferred treatment (2614). Laboratories rapidly communicated the results of rabies virus tests on dead mammals (328/907 positive). In two pilot districts SMS reminders were sent to 1376 (71.2%) of 1933 patients whose contact details were available. Daily SMS reports alerted 17 public health inspectors to bite incidents in their area for investigation. LESSONS LEARNT: Existing technologies in low-resource countries can be harnessed to improve public health surveillance. Investment is needed in platform development and training and support for front-line staff. Greater public engagement is needed to improve completeness of surveillance and treatment.

Capacity building for critical care training delivery: Development and evaluation of the Network for Improving Critical care Skills Training (NICST) programme in Sri Lanka.

OBJECTIVES: To deliver and evaluate a short critical care nurse training course whilst simultaneously building local training capacity. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: A multi-modal short course for critical care nursing skills was delivered in seven training blocks, from 06/2013-11/2014. Each training block included a Train the Trainer programme. The project was evaluated using Kirkpatrick's Hierarchy of Learning. There was a graded hand over of responsibility for course delivery from overseas to local faculty between 2013 and 2014. SETTING: Sri Lanka. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participant learning assessed through pre/post course Multi-Choice Questionnaires. RESULTS: A total of 584 nurses and 29 faculty were trained. Participant feedback was consistently positive and each course demonstrated a significant increase (p≤0.0001) in MCQ scores. There was no significant difference MCQ scores (p=0.186) between overseas faculty led and local faculty led courses. CONCLUSIONS: In a relatively short period, training with good educational outcomes was delivered to nearly 25% of the critical care nursing population in Sri Lanka whilst simultaneously building a local faculty of trainers. Through use of a structured Train the Trainer programme, course outcomes were maintained following the handover of training responsibility to Sri Lankan faculty. The focus on local capacity building increases the possibility of long term course sustainability.

Relationship Between Peak Lactate and Patient Outcome Following High-Risk Gastrointestinal Surgery: Influence of the Nature of Their Surgery: Elective Versus Emergency.

OBJECTIVES: The association between hyperlactatemia and adverse outcome in patients admitted to ICUs following gastrointestinal surgery has not been reported. To explore the hypothesis that in a large cohort of gastrointestinal surgical patients, the peak serum lactate (in the first 24 hr) observed in patients admitted to ICU following surgery is associated with unadjusted and severity-adjusted acute hospital mortality and that the strength of association is greater in patients admitted following "emergency" surgery than in patients admitted following "elective" surgery. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of all patients who had gastrointestinal surgery and were admitted directly to the ICU between 2008 and 2012. SETTING: Two hundred forty-nine hospitals in the United Kingdom. PATIENTS: One hundred twenty-one thousand nine hundred ninety patients. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Peak blood lactate in the first 24 hours of admission to critical care, acute hospital mortality, length of stay, and other variables routinely collected within the U.K. Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme database. Elevated blood lactate was associated with increased risk of death and prolonged duration of stay, and the relationship was maintained once adjusted for confounding variables. The positive association between mortality and levels of blood lactate continued down into the "normal range," without evidence of a plateau. There was no difference in the extent to which hyperlactatemia was related to mortality between patients admitted following elective and emergency surgery. CONCLUSIONS: These findings have implications for our understanding of the role of lactate in critically ill patients.

Nursing intensive care skills training: a nurse led, short, structured, and practical training program, developed and tested in a resource-limited setting.

PURPOSE: To assess the impact of a nurse-led, short, structured training program for intensive care unit (ICU) nurses in a resource-limited setting. METHODS: A training program using a structured approach to patient assessment and management for ICU nurses was designed and delivered by local nurse tutors in partnership with overseas nurse trainers. The impact of the course was assessed using the following: pre-course and post-course self-assessment, a pre-course and post-course Multiple Choice Questionnaire (MCQ), a post-course Objective Structured Clinical Assessment station, 2 post-course Short Oral Exam (SOE) stations, and post-course feedback questionnaires. RESULTS: In total, 117 ICU nurses were trained. Post-MCQ scores were significantly higher when compared with pre-MCQ (P < .0001). More than 95% passed the post-course Objective Structured Clinical Assessment (patient assessment) and SOE 1 (arterial blood gas analysis), whereas 76.9% passed SOE 2 (3-lead electrocardiogram analysis). The course was highly rated by participants, with 98% believing that this was a useful experience. CONCLUSIONS: Nursing Intensive Care Skills Training was highly rated by participants and was effective in improving the knowledge of the participants. This sustainable short course model may be adaptable to other resource-limited settings.

A cross-sectional survey of critical care services in Sri Lanka: a lower middle-income country.

PURPOSE: To describe the extent and variation of critical care services in Sri Lanka as a first step towards the development of a nationwide critical care unit (CCU) registry. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in all state CCUs by telephone or by visits to determine administration, infrastructure, equipment, staffing, and overall patient outcomes. RESULTS: There were 99 CCUs with 2.5 CCU beds per 100000 population and 13 CCU beds per 1 000 hospital beds. The median number of beds per CCU was 5. The overall admissions were 194 per 100000 population per year. The overall bed turnover was 76.5 per unit per year, with CCU mortality being 17%. Most CCUs were headed by an anesthetist. There were a total of 790 doctors (1.6 per bed), 1,989 nurses (3.9 per bed), and 626 health care assistants (1.2 per bed). Majority (87.9%) had 1:1 nurse-to-patient ratio, although few (11.4%) nurses had received formal intensive care unit training. All CCUs had basic infrastructure (electricity, running water, piped oxygen) and basic equipment (such as electronic monitoring and infusion pumps). CONCLUSION: Sri Lanka, a lower middle-income country has an extensive network of critical care facilities but with inequalities in its distribution and facilities.

Migration of Sri Lankan medical specialists.

BACKGROUND: The migration of health-care workers contributes to the shortage of health-care workers in many developing countries. This paper aims to describe the migration of medical specialists from Sri Lanka and to discuss the successes and failures of strategies to retain them. METHODS: This paper presents data on all trainees who have left Sri Lanka for postgraduate training through the Post Graduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, from April 1980 to June 2009. In addition, confidential interviews were conducted with 30 specialists who returned following foreign training within the last 5 years and 5 specialists who opted to migrate to foreign countries. RESULTS: From a total of 1,915 specialists who left Sri Lanka for training, 215 (11%) have not returned or have left the country without completing the specified bond period. The majority (53%) migrated to Australia. Of the specialists who left before completion of the bond period, 148 (68.8%) have settled or have started settling the bond. All participants identified foreign training as beneficial for their career. The top reasons for staying in Sri Lanka were: job security, income from private practice, proximity to family and a culturally appropriate environment. The top reasons for migration were: better quality of life, having to work in rural parts of Sri Lanka, career development and social security. CONCLUSIONS: This paper attempts to discuss the reasons for the low rates of emigration of specialists from Sri Lanka. Determining the reasons for retaining these specialists may be useful in designing health systems and postgraduate programs in developing countries with high rates of emigration of specialists.