An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi.

Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.

Short report on implications of Covid-19 and emerging zoonotic infectious diseases for pastoralists and Africa.

Many emerging and re-emerging zoonotic infectious diseases occur in Africa. These are projected to increase as human-animal host contact increases owing to increasing environmental degradation that shrinks nature habitats for wildlife over the continent. The current outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) responsible for causing coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19) has reinvigorated discourse on the disruptiveness of the zoonotic emerging infectious diseases, owing to their transboundary character. Even as the world focuses on the COVID-19 sweeping pandemic, the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS)-CoV re-emerged in Saudi Arabia infecting 18 people with five deaths; this has barely received any attention. This outbreak is particularly of concern to the pastoralists in the Horn of Africa, a region that has in recent past seen an increase in camel trade with the Gulf States, especially Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Emerging and re-emerging zoonotic infectious diseases are complex, depend on human-animal-environment interaction and pose a strain on public health systems. There is a need to address these diseases dynamically through a synergistic approach, drawing on expertise from diverse sectors. One Health approach has distinguished itself as an integrative action able to bring together multiple actors on a global, national and local scale to advance the attainment of optimal health outcomes for people, animals and the environment. One Health works by strengthening the preparedness, response, mitigation and monitoring of zoonotic infectious disease risks collaboratively. We opine that as zoonotic emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases continue to rise over pastoral Africa, comprehensive implementation of the One Health approach will be urgently required.

Correction: Risk Factors for Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in Cattle in Ethiopia.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159083.].

Risk Factors for Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in Cattle in Ethiopia.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infection is generally correlated with individual cattle's age, sex, body condition, and with husbandry practices such as herd composition, cattle movement, herd size, production system and proximity to wildlife-including bTB maintenance hosts. We tested the correlation between those factors and the prevalence of bTB, which is endemic in Ethiopia's highland cattle, in the Afar Region and Awash National Park between November 2013 and April 2015. A total of 2550 cattle from 102 herds were tested for bTB presence using the comparative intradermal tuberculin test (CITT). Data on herd structure, herd movement, management and production system, livestock transfer, and contact with wildlife were collected using semi-structured interviews with cattle herders and herd owners. The individual overall prevalence of cattle bTB was 5.5%, with a herd prevalence of 46%. Generalized Linear Mixed Models with a random herd-effect were used to analyse risk factors of cattle reactors within each herd. The older the age of the cattle and the lower the body condition the higher the chance of a positive bTB test result, but sex, lactation status and reproductive status were not correlated with bTB status. At herd level, General Linear Models showed that pastoral production systems with transhumant herds had a higher bTB prevalence than sedentary herds. A model averaging analysis identified herd size, contact with wildlife, and the interaction of herd size and contact with wildlife as significant risk factors for bTB prevalence in cattle. A subsequent Structural Equation Model showed that the probability of contact with wildlife was influenced by herd size, through herd movement. Larger herds moved more and grazed in larger areas, hence the probability of grazing in an area with wildlife and contact with either infected cattle or infected wildlife hosts increased, enhancing the chances for bTB infection. Therefore, future bTB control strategies in cattle in pastoral areas should consider herd size and movement as important risk factors.