Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Properties Across the Development Cycle of the GISS-E3 Global Climate Model.

The next-generation global climate model from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS-E3, contains many improvements to resolution and physics that allow for improved representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the model. This study examines the properties of TCs in two different versions of E3 at different points in its development cycle, run for 20 years at 0.5° resolution, and compares these TCs with observations, the previous generation GISS model, E2, and other climate models. E3 shares many TC biases common to global climate models, such as having too few tropical cyclones, but is much improved from E2. E3 produces strong enough TCs that observation-based wind speed thresholds can now be used to detect and track them, and some storms now reach hurricane intensity; neither of these was true of E2. Model development between the first and second versions of E3 further increased the number and intensity of TCs and reduced TC count biases globally and in most regions. One-year sensitivity tests to changes in various microphysical and dynamical tuning parameters are also examined. Increasing the entrainment rate for the more strongly entraining plume in the convection scheme increases the number of TCs (though also affecting other climate variables, and in some cases increasing biases). Variations in divergence damping did not have a strong effect on simulated TC properties, contrary to expectations based on previous studies. Overall, the improvements in E3 make it more credible for studies of TC activity and its relationship to climate.

GISS-E2.1: Configurations and Climatology.

This paper describes the GISS-E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS-E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2 × CO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7-3.1°C (depending on version) and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks.

Albedos, Equilibrium Temperatures, and Surface Temperatures of Habitable Planets.

The potential habitability of known exoplanets is often categorized by a nominal equilibrium temperature assuming a Bond albedo of either ∼0.3, similar to Earth, or 0. As an indicator of habitability, this leaves much to be desired, because albedos of other planets can be very different, and because surface temperature exceeds equilibrium temperature due to the atmospheric greenhouse effect. We use an ensemble of general circulation model simulations to show that for a range of habitable planets, much of the variability of Bond albedo, equilibrium temperature and even surface temperature can be predicted with useful accuracy from incident stellar flux and stellar temperature, two known parameters for every confirmed exoplanet. Earth's Bond albedo is near the minimum possible for habitable planets orbiting G stars, because of increasing contributions from clouds and sea ice/snow at higher and lower instellations, respectively. For habitable M star planets, Bond albedo is usually lower than Earth's because of near-IR H2O absorption, except at high instellation where clouds are important. We apply relationships derived from this behavior to several known exoplanets to derive zeroth-order estimates of their potential habitability. More expansive multivariate statistical models that include currently non-observable parameters show that greenhouse gas variations produce significant variance in albedo and surface temperature, while increasing length of day and land fraction decrease surface temperature; insights for other parameters are limited by our sampling. We discuss how emerging information from global climate models might resolve some degeneracies and help focus scarce observing resources on the most promising planets.

Cloud scattering impact on thermal radiative transfer and global longwave radiation.

The potential importance of longwave (LW) cloud scattering has been recognized but the actual estimate of this effect on thermal radiation varies greatly among different studies. General circulation models (GCMs) generally neglect or simplify the multiple scattering in the LW. In this study, we use a rigorous radiative transfer algorithm to explicitly consider LW multiple-scattering and apply the GCM to quantify the impact of cloud LW scattering on thermal radiation fluxes. Our study shows that the cloud scattering effect on downward thermal radiation at the surface is concentrated in the infrared atmospheric window spectrum (800-1250 cm-1). The scattering effect on the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is also present in the window region over low clouds but it is mainly in the far-infrared spectrum (300-600 cm-1) over high clouds. For clouds with small to moderate optical depth (τ < 10), the scattering effect on thermal fluxes shows large variation with the cloud τ and has a maximum at an optical depth of ~3. For opaque clouds, the scattering effect approaches an asymptote and is smaller and less important. The 2-stream radiative transfer scheme could have an error over 10% with an RMS error around 3.5%-4.0% in the calculated LW flux. This algorithm error of the 2-stream approximation could readily exceed the no-scattering error in the LW, and thus it is worthless to include the time-consuming computation of multiple scattering in a 2-stream radiative transfer scheme. However, the calculation error rapidly decreases as stream number increases and the RMS error in LW flux using the 4-stream scheme is under 0.3%, an accuracy sufficient for most climate studies. We implement the 4-stream discrete-ordinate algorithm in the GISS GCM and run the GCM for 20 years with and without the LW scattering effect, respectively. When cloud LW scattering is included, we find that the global annual mean OLR is reduced by 2.7 W/m2, and the downward surface flux and the net atmospheric absorption are increased by 1.6 W/m2 and 1.8 W/m2, respectively. Using one year of ISCCP clouds and running the standalone radiative transfer offline, the global annual mean non-scattering errors in OLR, surface LW downward flux and net atmospheric absorption are 3.6W/m2, -1.1 W/m2, and -2.5 W/m2, respectively. The global scattering impact of 2.7 W/m2 on the OLR is small when compared to the typical global OLR value of 240W/m2, but it is significant when compared to cloud LW radiative forcing (30W/m2) and net cloud forcing (-14W/m2). Overall, the effect of neglecting scattering on the thermal fluxes is comparable to the reported clear sky radiative effect of doubling CO2.

Is precipitation a good metric for model performance?

Precipitation has often been used to gauge the performances of numerical weather and climate models, sometimes together with other variables such as temperature, humidity, geopotential, and clouds. Precipitation, however, is singular in that it can present a high spatial variability and probably the sharpest gradients amongst all meteorological fields. Moreover, its quantitative measurement is plagued with difficulties and there are even notable differences among different reference datasets. Several additional issues have yield to sometimes question its usefulness in model validation. This essay discusses the use of precipitation for model verification and validation, and the crucial role of highly precise and reliable satellite estimates, such as those from the core observatory of NASA's Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

Habitable Climate Scenarios for Proxima Centauri b with a Dynamic Ocean.

The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that Proxima b could harbor a small dayside surface ocean despite its weak instellation. We present the first climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and/or depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean because of dynamical regime transitions between a state with an equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave pattern and a state with a day-night circulation. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline ocean, Proxima b could be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet with halophilic life. A freshwater ocean produces a smaller liquid region than does an Earth salinity ocean. An ocean planet in 3:2 spin-orbit resonance has a permanent tropical waterbelt for moderate eccentricity. A larger versus smaller area of surface liquid water for similar equilibrium temperature may be distinguishable by using the amplitude of the thermal phase curve. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may be a model for the habitability of weakly irradiated planets orbiting slightly cooler or warmer stars, for example, in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems.

Exoplanet Biosignatures: A Framework for Their Assessment.

Finding life on exoplanets from telescopic observations is an ultimate goal of exoplanet science. Life produces gases and other substances, such as pigments, which can have distinct spectral or photometric signatures. Whether or not life is found with future data must be expressed with probabilities, requiring a framework of biosignature assessment. We present a framework in which we advocate using biogeochemical "Exo-Earth System" models to simulate potential biosignatures in spectra or photometry. Given actual observations, simulations are used to find the Bayesian likelihoods of those data occurring for scenarios with and without life. The latter includes "false positives" wherein abiotic sources mimic biosignatures. Prior knowledge of factors influencing planetary inhabitation, including previous observations, is combined with the likelihoods to give the Bayesian posterior probability of life existing on a given exoplanet. Four components of observation and analysis are necessary. (1) Characterization of stellar (e.g., age and spectrum) and exoplanetary system properties, including "external" exoplanet parameters (e.g., mass and radius), to determine an exoplanet's suitability for life. (2) Characterization of "internal" exoplanet parameters (e.g., climate) to evaluate habitability. (3) Assessment of potential biosignatures within the environmental context (components 1-2), including corroborating evidence. (4) Exclusion of false positives. We propose that resulting posterior Bayesian probabilities of life's existence map to five confidence levels, ranging from "very likely" (90-100%) to "very unlikely" (<10%) inhabited. Key Words: Bayesian statistics-Biosignatures-Drake equation-Exoplanets-Habitability-Planetary science. Astrobiology 18, 709-738.

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets I: 3-D Model Simulations.

We present a large ensemble of simulations of an Earth-like world with increasing insolation and rotation rate. Unlike previous work utilizing idealized aquaplanet configurations we focus our simulations on modern Earth-like topography. The orbital period is the same as modern Earth, but with zero obliquity and eccentricity. The atmosphere is 1 bar N2-dominated with CO2=400 ppmv and CH4=1 ppmv. The simulations include two types of oceans; one without ocean heat transport (OHT) between grid cells as has been commonly used in the exoplanet literature, while the other is a fully coupled dynamic bathtub type ocean. The dynamical regime transitions that occur as day length increases induce climate feedbacks producing cooler temperatures, first via the reduction of water vapor with increasing rotation period despite decreasing shortwave cooling by clouds, and then via decreasing water vapor and increasing shortwave cloud cooling, except at the highest insolations. Simulations without OHT are more sensitive to insolation changes for fast rotations while slower rotations are relatively insensitive to ocean choice. OHT runs with faster rotations tend to be similar with gyres transporting heat poleward making them warmer than those without OHT. For slower rotations OHT is directed equator-ward and no high latitude gyres are apparent. Uncertainties in cloud parameterization preclude a precise determination of habitability but do not affect robust aspects of exoplanet climate sensitivity. This is the first paper in a series that will investigate aspects of habitability in the simulations presented herein. The datasets from this study are opensource and publicly available.

Changes in the structure and propagation of the MJO with increasing CO2.

Changes in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) with increasing CO2 concentrations are examined using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Climate Model (GCM). Four simulations performed with fixed CO2 concentrations of 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 times preindustrial levels using the GCM coupled with a mixed layer ocean model are analyzed in terms of the basic state, rainfall, moisture and zonal wind variability, and the structure and propagation of the MJO. The GCM simulates basic state changes associated with increasing CO2 that are consistent with results from earlier studies: column water vapor increases at ∼7.1% K-1, precipitation also increases but at a lower rate (∼3% K-1), and column relative humidity shows little change. Moisture and rainfall variability intensify with warming while zonal wind variability shows little change. Total moisture and rainfall variability increases at a rate this is similar to that of the mean state change. The intensification is faster in the MJO-related anomalies than in the total anomalies, though the ratio of the MJO band variability to its westward counterpart increases at a much slower rate. On the basis of linear regression analysis and space-time spectral analysis, it is found that the MJO exhibits faster eastward propagation, faster westward energy dispersion, a larger zonal scale, and deeper vertical structure in warmer climates.

Characterization of Moist Processes Associated With Changes in the Propagation of the MJO With Increasing CO2.

The processes that lead to changes in the propagation and maintenance of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a response to increasing CO2 are examined by analyzing moist static energy budget of the MJO in a series of NASA GISS model simulations. It is found changes in MJO propagation is dominated by several key processes. Horizontal moisture advection, a key process for MJO propagation, is found to enhance predominantly due to an increase in the mean horizontal moisture gradients. The terms that determine the strength of the advecting wind anomalies, the MJO horizontal scale and the dry static stability, are found to exhibit opposing trends that largely cancel out. Furthermore, reduced sensitivity of precipitation to changes in column moisture, i.e., a lengthening in the convective moisture adjustment time scale, also opposes enhanced propagation. The dispersion relationship of Adames and Kim, which accounts for all these processes, predicts an acceleration of the MJO at a rate of ∼3.5% K-1, which is consistent with the actual phase speed changes in the simulation. For the processes that contribute to MJO maintenance, it is found that damping by vertical MSE advection is reduced due to the increasing vertical moisture gradient. This weaker damping is nearly canceled by weaker maintenance by cloud-radiative feedbacks, yielding the growth rate from the linear moisture mode theory nearly unchanged with the warming. Furthermore, the estimated growth rates are found to be a small, negative values, suggesting that the MJO in the simulation is a weakly damped mode.

An Improved Convective Ice Parameterization for the NASA GISS Global Climate Model and Impacts on Cloud Ice Simulation.

Partitioning of convective ice into precipitating and detrained condensate presents a challenge for GCMs since partitioning depends on the strength and microphysics of the convective updraft. It is an important issue because detrainment of ice from updrafts influences the development of stratiform anvils, impacts radiation, and can affect GCM climate sensitivity. Recent studies have shown that the CMIP5 configurations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM simulated upper-tropospheric ice water content (IWC) that exceeded an estimated upper bound by a factor of 2. Partly in response to this bias, a new GCM parameterization of convective cloud ice has been developed that incorporates new ice particle fall speeds and convective outflow particle size distributions (PSDs) from the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), NASA Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4), DOE ARM-NASA Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), and DOE ARM Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) field campaigns. The new parameterization assumes a normalized gamma PSD with two novel developments: no explicit assumption for particle habit in the calculation of mass distributions, and a formulation for translating ice particle fall speeds as a function of maximum diameter into fall speeds as a function of melted-equivalent diameter. Two parameters (particle volume- and projected area-weighted equivalent diameter) are diagnosed as a function of temperature and IWC in the convective plume, and these parameters constrain the shape and scale of the normalized gamma PSD. The diagnosed fall speeds and PSDs are combined with the GCM's parameterized convective updraft vertical velocity to partition convective updraft condensate into precipitating and detrained components. A 5-yr prescribed sea surface temperature GCM simulation shows a 30%-50% decrease in upper-tropospheric deep convective IWC, bringing the tropical and global mean ice water path into closer agreement with CloudSat best estimates.

The relationship between boundary layer stability and cloud cover in the post-cold frontal region.

Using NASA-Aqua MODIS and AIRS data, the relationship between low-level cloud cover (cloud top below the 700 hPa level) and boundary layer stability is explored in post-cold frontal conditions. A linear relationship is found between seasonal cloud cover and two separate measures of inversion strength, the lower tropospheric stability (LTS) and the estimated inversion strength (EIS), for two specific regions in the north Atlantic and Pacific in quiescent and weakly subsiding conditions. The relationship barely changes when considering dynamically active and subsiding post-cold frontal conditions for the same regions. To explore the generality of this result and increase sample size, cold front centered composites of cloud cover and stability are constructed. The northern and southern hemisphere seasonal cloud cover and stability distributions in the post-cold frontal regions are then compared. A fairly good correlation between cloud cover and EIS is found in both hemispheres across all seasons, suggesting that a linear relationship between cloud cover and inversion strength proposed for quiescent conditions exists also in more dynamically active subsiding post-cold frontal conditions. However, for a given season and hemisphere, the correlation between cloud cover and EIS degrades in post-cold frontal regions, especially in the northern hemisphere. At these scales, other large scale factors tend to correlate better with cloud cover.

Was Venus the First Habitable World of our Solar System?

Present-day Venus is an inhospitable place with surface temperatures approaching 750K and an atmosphere 90 times as thick as Earth's. Billions of years ago the picture may have been very different. We have created a suite of 3-D climate simulations using topographic data from the Magellan mission, solar spectral irradiance estimates for 2.9 and 0.715 Gya, present-day Venus orbital parameters, an ocean volume consistent with current theory, and an atmospheric composition estimated for early Venus. Using these parameters we find that such a world could have had moderate temperatures if Venus had a rotation period slower than ~16 Earth days, despite an incident solar flux 46-70% higher than Earth receives. At its current rotation period, Venus's climate could have remained habitable until at least 715 million years ago. These results demonstrate the role rotation and topography play in understanding the climatic history of Venus-like exoplanets discovered in the present epoch.

Responses of Tropical Ocean Clouds and Precipitation to the Large-Scale Circulation:Atmospheric-Water-Budget-Related Phase Space and Dynamical Regimes.

An atmospheric-water-budget-related phase space is constructed with the tendency terms related to dynamical convergence (QCON ≡ -Q∇ · V) and moisture advection (QADV ≡ -V · ∇Q) in the water budget equation. Over the tropical oceans, QCON accounts for large-scale dynamical conditions related to conditional instability, and QADV accounts for conditions related to lower-tropospheric moisture gradient. Two reanalysis products [MERRA and ERA-Interim (ERAi)] are used to calculate QCON and QADV. Using the phase space as a reference frame, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure (CTP) and cloud optical depth (COD) are used to evaluate simulated clouds in the GISS-E2 general circulation model. In regimes of divergence over the tropical oceans, moist advection yields frequent high- to midlevel medium-thickness to thick clouds associated with moderate stratiform precipitation, while dry advection yields low-level thin clouds associated with shallow convection with lowered cloud tops. In regimes with convergence, moist and dry advection modulate the relative abundance of high-level thick clouds and low-level thin to medium-thickness clouds. GISS-E2 qualitatively reproduces the cloud property dependence on moisture budget tendencies in regimes of convergence but with larger COD compared to MODIS. Low-level thick clouds in GISS-E2 are the most frequent in regimes of near-zero convergence and moist advection instead of those of large-scale divergence. Compared to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project product, MERRA, ERAi, and GISS-E2 have more rain in regimes with deep convection and less rain in regimes with shallow convection.

Strong temporal variation over one Saturnian year: from Voyager to Cassini.

Here we report the combined spacecraft observations of Saturn acquired over one Saturnian year (~29.5 Earth years), from the Voyager encounters (1980-81) to the new Cassini reconnaissance (2009-10). The combined observations reveal a strong temporal increase of tropic temperature (~10 Kelvins) around the tropopause of Saturn (i.e., 50 mbar), which is stronger than the seasonal variability (~a few Kelvins). We also provide the first estimate of the zonal winds at 750 mbar, which is close to the zonal winds at 2000 mbar. The quasi-consistency of zonal winds between these two levels provides observational support to a numerical suggestion inferring that the zonal winds at pressures greater than 500 mbar do not vary significantly with depth. Furthermore, the temporal variation of zonal winds decreases its magnitude with depth, implying that the relatively deep zonal winds are stable with time.

Dynamics of Saturn's south polar vortex.

The camera onboard the Cassini spacecraft has allowed us to observe many of Saturn's cloud features. We present observations of Saturn's south polar vortex (SPV) showing that it shares some properties with terrestrial hurricanes: cyclonic circulation, warm central region (the eye) surrounded by a ring of high clouds (the eye wall), and convective clouds outside the eye. The polar location and the absence of an ocean are major differences. It also shares properties with the polar vortices on Venus, such as polar location, cyclonic circulation, warm center, and long lifetime, but the Venus vortices have cold collars and are not associated with convective clouds. The SPV's combination of properties is unique among vortices in the solar system.

Earth's energy imbalance: confirmation and implications.

Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 +/- 0.15 watts per square meter more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include (i) the expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6 degrees C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) the confirmation of the climate system's lag in responding to forcings, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) the likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.

Imaging of Titan from the Cassini spacecraft.

Titan, the largest moon of Saturn, is the only satellite in the Solar System with a substantial atmosphere. The atmosphere is poorly understood and obscures the surface, leading to intense speculation about Titan's nature. Here we present observations of Titan from the imaging science experiment onboard the Cassini spacecraft that address some of these issues. The images reveal intricate surface albedo features that suggest aeolian, tectonic and fluvial processes; they also show a few circular features that could be impact structures. These observations imply that substantial surface modification has occurred over Titan's history. We have not directly detected liquids on the surface to date. Convective clouds are found to be common near the south pole, and the motion of mid-latitude clouds consistently indicates eastward winds, from which we infer that the troposphere is rotating faster than the surface. A detached haze at an altitude of 500 km is 150-200 km higher than that observed by Voyager, and more tenuous haze layers are also resolved.

Cassini imaging of Jupiter's atmosphere, satellites, and rings.

The Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem acquired about 26,000 images of the Jupiter system as the spacecraft encountered the giant planet en route to Saturn. We report findings on Jupiter's zonal winds, convective storms, low-latitude upper troposphere, polar stratosphere, and northern aurora. We also describe previously unseen emissions arising from Io and Europa in eclipse, a giant volcanic plume over Io's north pole, disk-resolved images of the satellite Himalia, circumstantial evidence for a causal relation between the satellites Metis and Adrastea and the main jovian ring, and information on the nature of the ring particles.