Coffee Intake, Plasma Caffeine Levels, and Kidney Function: Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Among East Asian and European Ancestries.

Introduction: Previous Mendelian randomization (MR) studies for the coffee-kidney association have reported inconsistent relationships in European populations and never examined mediators of this association. We aimed to evaluate this causal relationship using two-sample MR among both East Asian and European ancestries and to explore underlying mechanisms using plasma caffeine levels. Methods: Among East Asians, the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) results for coffee intake, plasma caffeine levels, and kidney outcomes were obtained from 152,634; 8940; and 47,070 Japanese adults. Among Europeans, summary statistics were acquired from European GWAS with 428,860; 7719; and 564,470 adults for each trait. We applied different MR methods (inverse-variance weighted [IVW] with random effects, weighted median, weighted mode, and MR-Egger). Results: After excluding possible pleiotropic variants, among East Asian ancestry, drinking an extra coffee intake per week showed a protective association on serum creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcre) (ß = 0.077; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.003 to 0.150). Analysis in European ancestry also showed a causal relationship between drinking an extra coffee intake per day and eGFRcre (ß = 0.052; 95% CI = 0.027 to 0.078). These results were consistent across different MR methods accounting for invalid instruments. Higher plasma caffeine levels were associated with lower eGFRcre among both East Asian (ß = -0.071; 95% CI = -0.137 to -0.006) and European ancestries (ß = -0.048; 95% CI = -0.057 to -0.040). Conclusions: Our cross-ancestry MR study found beneficial effects of coffee intake on eGFRcre. However, given the possible adverse effects of plasma caffeine levels on eGFRcre, interpretation of the results should be carefully considered and further investigations on noncaffeine and biological pathways are needed.

Genetic determinants of complement activation in the general population.

Complement is a fundamental innate immune response component. Its alterations are associated with severe systemic diseases. To illuminate the complement's genetic underpinnings, we conduct genome-wide association studies of the functional activity of the classical (CP), lectin (LP), and alternative (AP) complement pathways in the Cooperative Health Research in South Tyrol study (n = 4,990). We identify seven loci, encompassing 13 independent, pathway-specific variants located in or near complement genes (CFHR4, C7, C2, MBL2) and non-complement genes (PDE3A, TNXB, ABO), explaining up to 74% of complement pathways' genetic heritability and implicating long-range haplotypes associated with LP at MBL2. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses, supported by transcriptome- and proteome-wide colocalization, confirm known causal pathways, establish within-complement feedback loops, and implicate causality of ABO on LP and of CFHR2 and C7 on AP. LP causally influences collectin-11 and KAAG1 levels and the risk of mouth ulcers. These results build a comprehensive resource to investigate the role of complement in human health.

Asthma and incident coronary heart disease: an observational and Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest asthma is a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) and sex modifies the risk, but they may suffer from methodological limitations. To overcome these, we applied a "triangulation approach", where different methodologies, with different potential biases, were leveraged to enhance confidence in findings. METHODS: First, we conducted an observational study using UK medical records to match asthma patients 1:1, by age, sex and general practitioner (GP) practice, to the general population. We measured the association between asthma and incident CHD (myocardial infarction: hospitalisation/death) by applying minimal sufficient adjustment: model 1, smoking, body mass index, oral corticosteroids, atopy and deprivation; model 2, additionally adjusting for healthcare behaviour (GP consultation frequency). Second, we conducted a Mendelian randomisation (MR) study using data from the UK Biobank, Trans-National Asthma Genetic Consortium (TAGC) and Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis consortium (CARDIoGRAM). Using 64 asthma single nucleotide polymorphisms, the effect of asthma on CHD was estimated with inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis and methods that adjust for pleiotropy. RESULTS: In our observational study (n=1 522 910), we found asthma was associated with 6% increased risk of CHD (model 1: HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.13); after accounting for healthcare behaviour, we found no association (model 2: HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.94-1.05). Asthma severity did not modify the association, but sex did (females: HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01-1.21; males: HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84-0.98). Our MR study (n=589 875) found no association between asthma and CHD (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.98-1.04) and no modification by sex. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that asthma is not a risk factor for CHD. Previous studies may have suffered from detection bias or residual confounding.

Molecular phenotypes of mitochondrial dysfunction in clinically non-manifesting heterozygous PRKN variant carriers.

Homozygous or compound heterozygous (biallelic) variants in PRKN are causal for PD with highly penetrant symptom expression, while the much more common heterozygous variants may predispose to PD with highly reduced penetrance, through altered mitochondrial function. In the presence of pathogenic heterozygous variants, it is therefore important to test for mitochondrial alteration in cells derived from variant carriers to establish potential presymptomatic molecular markers. We generated lymphoblasts (LCLs) and human induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC)-derived neurons from non-manifesting heterozygous PRKN variant carriers and tested them for mitochondrial functionality. In LCLs, we detected hyperactive mitochondrial respiration, and, although milder compared to a biallelic PRKN-PD patient, hiPSC-derived neurons of non-manifesting heterozygous variant carriers also displayed several phenotypes of altered mitochondrial function. Overall, we identified molecular phenotypes that might be used to monitor heterozygous PRKN variant carriers during the prodromal phase. Such markers might also be useful to identify individuals at greater risk of eventual disease development and for testing potential mitochondrial function-based neuroprotective therapies before neurodegeneration advances.

The causal relationship between gastro-oesophageal reflux disease and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) is associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in observational studies. It is not known if this association arises because GORD causes IPF or because IPF causes GORD, or because of confounding by factors, such as smoking, associated with both GORD and IPF. We used bidirectional Mendelian randomisation (MR), where genetic variants are used as instrumental variables to address issues of confounding and reverse causation, to examine how, if at all, GORD and IPF are causally related. METHODS: A bidirectional two-sample MR was performed to estimate the causal effect of GORD on IPF risk and of IPF on GORD risk, using genetic data from the largest GORD (78 707 cases and 288 734 controls) and IPF (4125 cases and 20 464 controls) genome-wide association meta-analyses currently available. RESULTS: GORD increased the risk of IPF, with an OR of 1.6 (95% CI 1.04-2.49; p=0.032). There was no evidence of a causal effect of IPF on the risk of GORD, with an OR of 0.999 (95% CI 0.997-1.000; p=0.245). CONCLUSIONS: We found that GORD increases the risk of IPF, but found no evidence that IPF increases the risk of GORD. GORD should be considered in future studies of IPF risk and interest in it as a potential therapeutic target should be renewed. The mechanisms underlying the effect of GORD on IPF should also be investigated.

Whole Exome Sequencing Enhanced Imputation Identifies 85 Metabolite Associations in the Alpine CHRIS Cohort.

Metabolites are intermediates or end products of biochemical processes involved in both health and disease. Here, we take advantage of the well-characterized Cooperative Health Research in South Tyrol (CHRIS) study to perform an exome-wide association study (ExWAS) on absolute concentrations of 175 metabolites in 3294 individuals. To increase power, we imputed the identified variants into an additional 2211 genotyped individuals of CHRIS. In the resulting dataset of 5505 individuals, we identified 85 single-variant genetic associations, of which 39 have not been reported previously. Fifteen associations emerged at ten variants with >5-fold enrichment in CHRIS compared to non-Finnish Europeans reported in the gnomAD database. For example, the CHRIS-enriched ETFDH stop gain variant p.Trp286Ter (rs1235904433-hexanoylcarnitine) and the MCCC2 stop lost variant p.Ter564GlnextTer3 (rs751970792-carnitine) have been found in patients with glutaric acidemia type II and 3-methylcrotonylglycinuria, respectively, but the loci have not been associated with the respective metabolites in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) previously. We further identified three gene-trait associations, where multiple rare variants contribute to the signal. These results not only provide further evidence for previously described associations, but also describe novel genes and mechanisms for diseases and disease-related traits.

A Mendelian randomization study investigating the causal role of inflammation on Parkinson's disease.

There is increasing evidence for inflammation as a determinant in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease, but its role in parkinsonian neurodegeneration remains elusive. It is not clear whether inflammatory cascades are causes or consequences of dopamine neuron death. In the present study, we aim to perform an in-depth statistical investigation of the causal relationship between inflammation and Parkinson's disease using a two-sample Mendelian randomization design. Genetic instruments were selected using summary-level data from the largest genome-wide association studies to date (sample size ranging from 13 955 to 204 402 individuals) conducted on a European population for the following inflammation biomarkers: C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, interleukin 1 receptor antagonist and tumour necrosis factor α. Genetic association data on Parkinson's disease (56 306 cases and 1 417 791 controls) and age at onset of Parkinson's disease (28 568 cases) were obtained from the International Parkinson's Disease Genomics Consortium. On primary analysis, causal associations were estimated on sets of strong (P-value < 5 × 10-8; F-statistic > 10) and independent (linkage disequilibrium r2 < 0.001) genetic instruments using the inverse-variance weighted method. In sensitivity analysis, we estimated causal effects using robust Mendelian randomization methods and after removing pleiotropic genetic variants. Reverse causation was also explored. We repeated the analysis on different data sources for inflammatory biomarkers to check the consistency of the findings. In all the three data sources selected for interleukin-6, we found statistical evidence for an earlier age at onset of Parkinson's disease associated with increased interleukin-6 concentration [years difference per 1 log-unit increase = -2.364, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -4.789-0.060; years difference per 1 log-unit increase = -2.011, 95% CI = -3.706 to -0.317; years difference per 1 log-unit increase = -1.569, 95% CI = -2.891 to -0.247]. We did not observe any statistical evidence for causal effects of C-reactive protein, interleukin 1 receptor antagonist and tumour necrosis factor α on both Parkinson's disease and its age at onset. Results after excluding possible pleiotropic genetic variants were consistent with findings from primary analyses. When investigating reverse causation, we did not find evidence for a causal effect of Parkinson's disease or age at onset on any biomarkers of inflammation. We found evidence for a causal association between the onset of Parkinson's disease and interleukin-6. The findings of this study suggest that the pro-inflammatory activity of the interleukin-6 cytokine could be a determinant of prodromal Parkinson's disease.

A multi-omics study of circulating phospholipid markers of blood pressure.

High-throughput techniques allow us to measure a wide-range of phospholipids which can provide insight into the mechanisms of hypertension. We aimed to conduct an in-depth multi-omics study of various phospholipids with systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). The associations of blood pressure and 151 plasma phospholipids measured by electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry were performed by linear regression in five European cohorts (n = 2786 in discovery and n = 1185 in replication). We further explored the blood pressure-related phospholipids in Erasmus Rucphen Family (ERF) study by associating them with multiple cardiometabolic traits (linear regression) and predicting incident hypertension (Cox regression). Mendelian Randomization (MR) and phenome-wide association study (Phewas) were also explored to further investigate these association results. We identified six phosphatidylethanolamines (PE 38:3, PE 38:4, PE 38:6, PE 40:4, PE 40:5 and PE 40:6) and two phosphatidylcholines (PC 32:1 and PC 40:5) which together predicted incident hypertension with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.61. The identified eight phospholipids are strongly associated with triglycerides, obesity related traits (e.g. waist, waist-hip ratio, total fat percentage, body mass index, lipid-lowering medication, and leptin), diabetes related traits (e.g. glucose, insulin resistance and insulin) and prevalent type 2 diabetes. The genetic determinants of these phospholipids also associated with many lipoproteins, heart rate, pulse rate and blood cell counts. No significant association was identified by bi-directional MR approach. We identified eight blood pressure-related circulating phospholipids that have a predictive value for incident hypertension. Our cross-omics analyses show that phospholipid metabolites in the circulation may yield insight into blood pressure regulation and raise a number of testable hypothesis for future research.

The use of two-sample methods for Mendelian randomization analyses on single large datasets.

BACKGROUND: With genome-wide association data for many exposures and outcomes now available from large biobanks, one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) is increasingly used to investigate causal relationships. Many robust MR methods are available to address pleiotropy, but these assume independence between the gene-exposure and gene-outcome association estimates. Unlike in two-sample MR, in one-sample MR the two estimates are obtained from the same individuals, and the assumption of independence does not hold in the presence of confounding. METHODS: With simulations mimicking a typical study in UK Biobank, we assessed the performance, in terms of bias and precision of the MR estimate, of the fixed-effect and (multiplicative) random-effects meta-analysis method, weighted median estimator, weighted mode estimator and MR-Egger regression, used in both one-sample and two-sample data. We considered scenarios differing by the: presence/absence of a true causal effect; amount of confounding; and presence and type of pleiotropy (none, balanced or directional). RESULTS: Even in the presence of substantial correlation due to confounding, all two-sample methods used in one-sample MR performed similarly to when used in two-sample MR, except for MR-Egger which resulted in bias reflecting direction and magnitude of the confounding. Such bias was much reduced in the presence of very high variability in instrument strength across variants (IGX2 of 97%). CONCLUSIONS: Two-sample MR methods can be safely used for one-sample MR performed within large biobanks, expect for MR-Egger. MR-Egger is not recommended for one-sample MR unless the correlation between the gene-exposure and gene-outcome estimates due to confounding can be kept low, or the variability in instrument strength is very high.

Thyroid Function and Mood Disorders: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Background: Observational studies suggest that even minor variations in thyroid function are associated with the risk of mood disorders, including major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar disorder (BD). However, it is unknown whether these associations are causal or not. We used a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to investigate causal effects of minor variations in thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (fT4) levels on MDD and BD risk. Materials and Methods: We performed two-sample MR analyses using data from the largest publicly available genome-wide association studies on normal-range TSH (n = 54,288) and fT4 (n = 49,269) levels, MDD (170,756 cases, 329,443 controls) and BD (20,352 cases, 31,358 controls). Secondary MR analyses investigated the effects of TSH and fT4 levels on specific MDD and BD subtypes. Reverse MR was also performed to assess the effects of MDD and BD on TSH and fT4 levels. Results: There were no associations between genetically predicted TSH and fT4 levels and MDD risk, nor MDD subtypes and minor depressive symptoms. A one standard deviation increase in fT4 levels was nominally associated with an 11% decrease in the overall BD risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.80-0.98, p = 0.022) and a 13% decrease in the BD type 1 risk (OR = 0.87, CI = 0.75-1.00, p = 0.047). In the reverse direction, genetic predisposition to MDD and BD was not associated with TSH nor fT4 levels. Conclusions: Variations in normal-range TSH and fT4 levels have no effects on the risk of MDD and its subtypes, and neither on minor depressive symptoms. This indicates that depressive symptoms should not be attributed to minor variations in thyroid function. Borderline associations with BD and BD type 1 risks suggest that further clinical studies should investigate the effect of thyroid hormone treatment in BD.

Variation in Normal Range Thyroid Function Affects Serum Cholesterol Levels, Blood Pressure, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Background: Observational studies have demonstrated that variation in normal range thyroid function is associated with major cardiovascular risk factors, including dyslipidemia, hypertension, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and obesity. As observational studies are prone to residual confounding, reverse causality, and selection bias, we used a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to investigate whether these associations are causal or not. Methods: Two-sample MR analysis using data from the largest available genome-wide association studies on normal range thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (fT4) levels, serum lipid levels, blood pressure measurements, T2D, and obesity traits (body mass index [BMI] and waist/hip ratio). Results: A one standard deviation (SD) increase in genetically predicted TSH levels was associated with a 0.037 SD increase in total cholesterol levels (p = 3.0 × 10-4). After excluding pleiotropic instruments, we also observed significant associations between TSH levels and low-density lipoprotein levels (ß = 0.026 SD, p = 1.9 × 10-3), pulse pressure (ß = -0.477 mmHg, p = 7.5 × 10-10), and T2D risk (odds ratio = 0.95, p = 2.5 × 10-3). While we found no evidence of causal associations between TSH or fT4 levels and obesity traits, we found that a one SD increase in genetically predicted BMI was associated with a 0.075 SD decrease in fT4 levels (p = 3.6 × 10-4). Conclusions: Variation in normal range thyroid function affects serum cholesterol levels, blood pressure, and T2D risk.

Multi-ancestry GWAS of the electrocardiographic PR interval identifies 202 loci underlying cardiac conduction.

The electrocardiographic PR interval reflects atrioventricular conduction, and is associated with conduction abnormalities, pacemaker implantation, atrial fibrillation (AF), and cardiovascular mortality. Here we report a multi-ancestry (N = 293,051) genome-wide association meta-analysis for the PR interval, discovering 202 loci of which 141 have not previously been reported. Variants at identified loci increase the percentage of heritability explained, from 33.5% to 62.6%. We observe enrichment for cardiac muscle developmental/contractile and cytoskeletal genes, highlighting key regulation processes for atrioventricular conduction. Additionally, 8 loci not previously reported harbor genes underlying inherited arrhythmic syndromes and/or cardiomyopathies suggesting a role for these genes in cardiovascular pathology in the general population. We show that polygenic predisposition to PR interval duration is an endophenotype for cardiovascular disease, including distal conduction disease, AF, and atrioventricular pre-excitation. These findings advance our understanding of the polygenic basis of cardiac conduction, and the genetic relationship between PR interval duration and cardiovascular disease.

Thyroid Function Affects the Risk of Stroke via Atrial Fibrillation: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

CONTEXT: Observational studies suggest that variations in normal range thyroid function are associated with cardiovascular diseases. However, it remains to be determined whether these associations are causal or not. OBJECTIVE: To test whether genetically determined variation in normal range thyroid function is causally associated with the risk of stroke and coronary artery disease (CAD) and investigate via which pathways these relations may be mediated. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Mendelian randomization analyses for stroke and CAD using genetic instruments associated with normal range thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine levels or Hashimoto's thyroiditis and Graves' disease. The potential mediating role of known stroke and CAD risk factors was examined. Publicly available summary statistics data were used. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Stroke or CAD risk per genetically predicted increase in TSH or FT4 levels. RESULTS: A 1 standard deviation increase in TSH was associated with a 5% decrease in the risk of stroke (odds ratio [OR], 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-0.99; P = 0.008). Multivariable MR analyses indicated that this effect is mainly mediated via atrial fibrillation. MR analyses did not show a causal association between normal range thyroid function and CAD. Secondary analyses showed a causal relationship between Hashimoto's thyroiditis and a 7% increased risk of CAD (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.13; P = 0.026), which was mainly mediated via body mass index. CONCLUSION: These results provide important new insights into the causal relationships and mediating pathways between thyroid function, stroke, and CAD. We identify variation in normal range thyroid function and Hashimoto's thyroiditis as risk factors for stroke and CAD, respectively.

Risky behaviors and Parkinson disease: A mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine causal associations between risky behavior phenotypes and Parkinson disease using a mendelian randomization approach. METHODS: We used 2-sample mendelian randomization to generate unconfounded estimates using summary statistics from 2 independent, large meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies on risk-taking behaviors (n = 370,771-939,908) and Parkinson disease (cases n = 9,581, controls n = 33,245). We used the inverse variance weighted method as the main method for judging causality. RESULTS: Our results support a strong protective association between the tendency to smoke and Parkinson disease (odds ratio [OR] 0.714 per log odds of ever smoking, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.568-0.897, p = 0.0041, Cochran Q test p = 0.238; I 2 index 6.3%). Furthermore, we observed risk association trends between automobile speed propensity and the number of sexual partners and Parkinson disease after removal of overlapping loci with other risky traits (OR 1.986 for each 1-SD increase in normalized automobile speed propensity, 95% CI 1.215-3.243, p = 0.0066; OR 1.635 for each 1-SD increase in number of sexual partners, 95% CI 1.165-2.293, p = 0.0049). CONCLUSION: These findings provide support for a causal relationship between general risk tolerance and Parkinson disease and may provide new insights into the pathogenic mechanisms leading to the development of Parkinson disease.

Lipidomics, Atrial Conduction, and Body Mass Index.

BACKGROUND: Lipids are increasingly involved in cardiovascular risk prediction as potential proarrhythmic influencers. However, knowledge is limited about the specific mechanisms connecting lipid alterations with atrial conduction. METHODS: To shed light on this issue, we conducted a broad assessment of 151 sphingo- and phospholipids, measured using mass spectrometry, for association with atrial conduction, measured by P wave duration (PWD) from standard electrocardiograms, in the MICROS study (Microisolates in South Tyrol) (n=839). Causal pathways involving lipidomics, body mass index (BMI), and PWD were assessed using 2-sample Mendelian randomization analyses based on published genome-wide association studies of lipidomics (n=4034) and BMI (n=734 481), and genetic association analysis of PWD in 5 population-based studies (n=24 236). RESULTS: We identified an association with relative phosphatidylcholine 38:3 (%PC 38:3) concentration, which was replicated in the ORCADES (Orkney Complex Disease Study; n=951), with a pooled association across studies of 2.59 (95% CI, 1.3-3.9; P=1.1×10-4) ms PWD per mol% increase. While being independent of cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose levels, the %PC 38:3-PWD association was mediated by BMI. Results supported a causal effect of BMI on both PWD ( P=8.3×10-5) and %PC 38:3 ( P=0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Increased %PC 38:3 levels are consistently associated with longer PWD, partly because of the confounding effect of BMI. The causal effect of BMI on PWD reinforces evidence of BMI's involvement into atrial electrical activity.

Mendelian randomisation analyses find pulmonary factors mediate the effect of height on coronary artery disease.

There is evidence that lower height is associated with a higher risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) and increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). It is not clear though whether these associations are causal, direct or mediated by other factors. Here we show that one standard deviation higher genetically determined height (~6.5 cm) is causally associated with a 16% decrease in CAD risk (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.80-0.87). This causal association remains after performing sensitivity analyses relaxing pleiotropy assumptions. The causal effect of height on CAD risk is reduced by 1-3% after adjustment for potential mediators (lipids, blood pressure, glycaemic traits, body mass index, socio-economic status). In contrast, our data suggest that lung function (measured by forced expiratory volume [FEV1] and forced vital capacity [FVC]) is a mediator of the effect of height on CAD. We observe no direct causal effect of height on the risk of T2D.

Improving the accuracy of two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization: moving beyond the NOME assumption.

BACKGROUND: Two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization (MR) incorporating multiple genetic variants within a meta-analysis framework is a popular technique for assessing causality in epidemiology. If all genetic variants satisfy the instrumental variable (IV) and necessary modelling assumptions, then their individual ratio estimates of causal effect should be homogeneous. Observed heterogeneity signals that one or more of these assumptions could have been violated. METHODS: Causal estimation and heterogeneity assessment in MR require an approximation for the variance, or equivalently the inverse-variance weight, of each ratio estimate. We show that the most popular 'first-order' weights can lead to an inflation in the chances of detecting heterogeneity when in fact it is not present. Conversely, ostensibly more accurate 'second-order' weights can dramatically increase the chances of failing to detect heterogeneity when it is truly present. We derive modified weights to mitigate both of these adverse effects. RESULTS: Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the modified weights outperform first- and second-order weights in terms of heterogeneity quantification. Modified weights are also shown to remove the phenomenon of regression dilution bias in MR estimates obtained from weak instruments, unlike those obtained using first- and second-order weights. However, with small numbers of weak instruments, this comes at the cost of a reduction in estimate precision and power to detect a causal effect compared with first-order weighting. Moreover, first-order weights always furnish unbiased estimates and preserve the type I error rate under the causal null. We illustrate the utility of the new method using data from a recent two-sample summary-data MR analysis to assess the causal role of systolic blood pressure on coronary heart disease risk. CONCLUSIONS: We propose the use of modified weights within two-sample summary-data MR studies for accurately quantifying heterogeneity and detecting outliers in the presence of weak instruments. Modified weights also have an important role to play in terms of causal estimation (in tandem with first-order weights) but further research is required to understand their strengths and weaknesses in specific settings.

Evaluating the current state of Mendelian randomization studies: a protocol for a systematic review on methodological and clinical aspects using neurodegenerative disorders as outcome.

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomization (MR) is fast becoming a popular method to judge causality from routinely conducted observational studies. However, stringent underlying statistical assumptions, missing biological information, and high sample size requirement might make it prone to misuse. Furthermore, rapidly updating methodologies and increasingly available datasets to researchers are making the interpretations of heterogeneous results even more complicated. In this protocol, we provide our design for a multifaceted systematic review on MR studies using neurodegenerative disease as an example outcome. The planned systematic review which has already passed the pilot stage will help to develop an in-depth understanding of how various MR methods have been applied, what has been achieved, and what can be done in future for to arrive at true causal risk factors. METHODS: During the pilot phase of this systematic review, several versions of questionnaires and frequent consultations between reviewers helped us to finalize a comprehensive list of questions. This will be used to extract information on systematically searched MR articles investigating causality underlying neurodegenerative diseases. A literature search of the electronic databases (Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science, Scopus, and databases listed in the Cochrane library) will be conducted. The search strategy will include terms related to MR and the spectrum of neurodegenerative diseases. Two independent reviewers will screen the studies, and three will extract the data. The included studies will be further judged by two reviewers for accuracy and completeness of available information. We will perform descriptive and quantitative synthesis using sensitivity analyses of causal association by study design, selection of genetic instrument, validity of MR assumptions, MR method, and sensitivity analysis based on exclusion of potential pleiotropic variants. The quality of conduct as well as quality of reporting in the included studies will be assessed and reported. A meta-analysis will be conducted, if effect estimates on identical genetic instruments are available for both exposure and outcome in the studies using data from participants from ethnically similar populations. DISCUSSION: This systematic review protocol utilizes a unique comprehensive data abstraction tool based on recent methodological advancements in the field of MR. The planned systematic review will further integrate information on methodological details with clinical findings in latest available large-scale genome-wide association study datasets. Our findings aim to help raising awareness and promoting transparent reporting of MR studies. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018091434 .

Improving the visualization, interpretation and analysis of two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization via the Radial plot and Radial regression.

Background: data furnishing a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study are often visualized with the aid of a scatter plot, in which single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-outcome associations are plotted against the SNP-exposure associations to provide an immediate picture of the causal-effect estimate for each individual variant. It is also convenient to overlay the standard inverse-variance weighted (IVW) estimate of causal effect as a fitted slope, to see whether an individual SNP provides evidence that supports, or conflicts with, the overall consensus. Unfortunately, the traditional scatter plot is not the most appropriate means to achieve this aim whenever SNP-outcome associations are estimated with varying degrees of precision and this is reflected in the analysis. Methods: We propose instead to use a small modification of the scatter plot-the Galbraith Radial plot-for the presentation of data and results from an MR study, which enjoys many advantages over the original method. On a practical level, it removes the need to recode the genetic data and enables a more straightforward detection of outliers and influential data points. Its use extends beyond the purely aesthetic, however, to suggest a more general modelling framework to operate within when conducting an MR study, including a new form of MR-Egger regression. Results: We illustrate the methods using data from a two-sample MR study to probe the causal effect of systolic blood pressure on coronary heart disease risk, allowing for the possible effects of pleiotropy. The Radial plot is shown to aid the detection of a single outlying variant that is responsible for large differences between IVW and MR-Egger regression estimates. Several additional plots are also proposed for informative data visualization. Conclusions: The Radial plot should be considered in place of the scatter plot for visualizing, analysing and interpreting data from a two-sample summary data MR study. Software is provided to help facilitate its use.