Temporal trends in anticoagulation use and clinical outcomes among medicare beneficiaries with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

PURPOSE: Oral anticoagulants effectively prevent stroke/systemic embolism among patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation but remain under-prescribed. This study evaluated temporal trends in oral anticoagulant use, the incidence of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding, and economic outcomes among elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥ 2. METHODS: Retrospective analyses were conducted on Medicare claims data from January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2017. Non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients aged ≥ 65 years with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥ 2 were stratified by calendar year (2013-2016) of care to create calendar-year cohorts. Patient characteristics were evaluated across all cohorts during the baseline period (12 months before diagnosis). Treatment patterns and clinical and economic outcomes were evaluated during the follow-up period (from diagnosis through 12 months). RESULTS: Baseline patient characteristics remained generally similar between 2013 and 2016. Although lack of oral anticoagulant prescriptions among eligible patients remained relatively high, utilization did increase progressively (53-58%). Among treated patients, there was a progressive decrease in warfarin use (79-52%) and a progressive increase in overall direct oral anticoagulant use (21-48%). There were progressive decreases in the incidence of stroke/systemic embolism 1.9-1.4 events per 100 person years) and major bleeding (4.6-3.3 events per 100 person years) as well as all-cause costs between 2013 and 2016. CONCLUSIONS: The proportions of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation who were not prescribed an oral anticoagulant decreased but remained high. We observed an increase in direct oral anticoagulant use that coincided with decreased incidence of clinical outcomes as well as decreasing total healthcare costs.

Geographic variation in clinical outcomes and anticoagulation among medicare beneficiaries with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

Oral anticoagulants (OACs) have been used to prevent stroke/systemic embolism (SE) among patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). To evaluate baseline clinical characteristics, incidence rates of stroke/SE and hospitalization for bleeding, and OAC use among elderly patients with NVAF in the US by geographic region. Patients with NVAF were selected from the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services claims database (01JAN2013-31DEC2016). Twelve months of health plan enrollment was required before and after the NVAF diagnosis to evaluate baseline characteristics and outcomes, respectively. Each patient was assigned to a 3-digit zip code based on their primary residence, and geographic variation was visualized using ArcGIS Pro software. Over 2.8 million patients with NVAF were identified. Large geographic variation was observed in clinical characteristics, stroke/SE, hospitalization for bleeding, and OAC use among patients across the US. The zip codes with the highest mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores and frequency of prior bleeding also had the highest incidence of stroke/SE and hospitalization for bleeding. Across 3-digit zip codes, 35-63% of patients were untreated. Overall, the incidence of stroke/SE and hospitalization for bleeding were higher and OAC treatment was less frequent in zip codes located in the Southern US. Baseline clinical characteristics, incidence rates of stroke/SE and hospitalization for bleeding, and OAC usage vary considerably by 3-digit zip code in the US. The additional granularity provided in this study may help clinicians to identify small regions with high-risk of stroke/SE and hospitalization for bleeding and low use of OAC that may benefit from targeted care strategies.

Contemporary prevalence estimates of undiagnosed and diagnosed atrial fibrillation in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence estimates vary and have been based on cohorts with clinically established or diagnosed disease. Undiagnosed AF prevalence estimates are less certain as they are based on nongeneralizable convenience samples. HYPOTHESIS: Because AF is often asymptomatic, it my remain undiagnosed until the development of complications such as stroke or heart failure. Consequently, the observed prevalence of diagnosed AF from the literature may underestimate total disease burden. We therefore sought to estimate the total prevalence of both diagnosed and undiagnosed AF. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study from 2012 to 2017 using data from five US medical claims data sets. Undiagnosed AF prevalence was estimated based on the observed incidence of ischemic stroke, systemic embolism (SE), and AF incidence after a stroke/SE. The diagnosed AF cohort included AF patients between Q1 2014 and Q3 2015. The undiagnosed AF cohort were patients with assumed undiagnosed AF in the year before a stroke/SE and who were newly diagnosed with AF in the 3-month poststroke/SE. Stroke/SE incidence was calculated among all AF patients and the ratio of number of undiagnosed AF patients to stroke rate was created. Age- and sex-adjusted estimates were stratified by period of assumed undiagnosed AF before poststroke/SE AF diagnosis (1 or 2 years). RESULTS: The estimated US prevalence of AF (diagnosed and undiagnosed) in Q3 2015 was 5 628 000 cases, of which 591 000 cases (11%) were undiagnosed. The assumed 2-year undiagnosed AF prevalence was 23% (1 531 000) of the total prevalent patients with AF (6 568 000). Undiagnosed (vs. diagnosed) AF patients were older and had higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Of undiagnosed AF, 93% had CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 and met OAC criteria. CONCLUSIONS: These contemporary estimates demonstrate the high prevalence of undiagnosed AF in the United States. Undiagnosed AF patients are composed of primarily elderly individuals who if diagnosed, would meet criteria for stroke prevention therapy.

Prevalence and determinants of oral and cervicogenital HPV infection: Baseline analysis of the Michigan HPV and Oropharyngeal Cancer (MHOC) cohort study.

We determined baseline oral and cervicogenital human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence and determinants of infection in the Michigan HPV and Oropharyngeal Cancer (MHOC) study. We enrolled 394 college-age and older participants of both sexes in Ann Arbor, Michigan and the surrounding area. All participants provided an oral sample at baseline, and 130 females provided a cervicogenital sample. Samples were tested for 18 HPV genotypes using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) MassArray. Participants filled out sociodemographic and behavioral questionnaires. Prevalence ratios for HPV oral or cervicogenital prevalence by predictor variables were estimated in univariable log-binomial models. Analysis was conducted 2018-20. In the full cohort, baseline oral HPV prevalence was 10.0% for any detected genotype (among the 338 valid oral tests at baseline) and 6.5% for high-risk types, and cervicogenital prevalence was 20.0% and 10.8%, respectively (among the 130 first valid cervicogenital tests). Oral HPV prevalence did not vary by sex, with 10.5% of women and 9.0% of men having an infection. We found a high prevalence of oral and cervicogenital HPV infection in college-age participants reporting no lifetime sexual partners. Reporting a single recent partner was associated with a lower oral HPV prevalence (PR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.96) than reporting no recent (but at least one ever) partner. No similar protective effect was seen for cervicogenital HPV. Both oral and cervicogenital prevalence increased with the number of recent partners for most sexual behaviors. We observed an ecological fallacy masking the direction of impact of vaccination on HPV prevalence in the full cohort compared to the college-aged and the age 23+ populations considered separately. Substance use was not significantly associated with oral or cervicogenital HPV infection. Many studies report substantially higher oral HPV infection prevalence in men than in women. That difference may not be uniform across populations in the US.

Oral human papillomavirus prevalence, persistence, and risk-factors in HIV-positive and HIV-negative adults.

BACKGROUND: HIV has been shown to increase the likelihood of oral HPV infection. In this study, we evaluated the risk of oral HPV in HIV infected patients compared with HIV-negative controls. METHODS: 101 healthy adult volunteers (HIV-) and 245 adults living with HIV infection (HIV+) were recruited from 5 academic medical centers. Questionnaires and saliva samples were obtained every 3-8 months over a period of 2 years (2015-2017). DNA was isolated from the saliva samples and tested for 18 high- and low-risk genotypes. RESULTS: Oral HPV was detected in 23% of HIV + vs. 10% of HIV- participants (p < 0.0001). Men had a higher oral HPV prevalence than women (27% vs. 15% HIV+, p = 0.03, 16% vs. 5% HIV-, p = 0.01). Risk factors among HIV + participants included more lifetime deep kissing and oral sex partners, and history of AIDS. Persistent oral HPV was detected in 23% of HIV + vs. 5% of HIV- participants (p < 0.001). Among 8 HIV + participants with CD4 counts <200 cell/µL none had cleared their HPV infection during the study. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of oral HPV infection and persistence was significantly higher in HIV + adults with a history of poorly controlled HIV, which may put them at increased risk of HPV-associated cancer.

Incidence and clearance of oral and cervicogenital HPV infection: longitudinal analysis of the MHOC cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The Michigan HPV and Oropharyngeal Cancer study aimed to evaluate patterns of oral and cervicogenital human papillomavirus (HPV) infection prevalence, incidence, and clearance as well as their relationship to sexual behaviours. DESIGN: Cohort SETTING: General public in and around Ann Arbor, Michigan. PARTICIPANTS: 394 college-age and older-adult participants of both sexes provided oral samples, and 325 completed at least 2 visits. 130 who provided a cervicogenital samples, and 127 completed at least 2 visits. OUTCOMES: Incidence and clearance rates as well as HRs for oral and cervicogenital HPV. RESULTS: Oral HPV infections were transient, with only 16% of genotypes persisting to the next visit. The mean time to clearance of a genotype was 46 days (95% CI 37 to 58). In contrast, cervicogenital infections were more persistent, with 56% of genotypes persisting to the next visit. The mean time to clearance of a genotype was 87 days (95% CI 74 to 102). HPV vaccination was associated with reduced incidence of cervicogenital HPV infection (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.83) but not oral HPV infection. Incidence of oral HPV infection was associated with 2+ recent deep kissing partners (HR 2.00; 95% CI 1.13 to 3.56). Incidence of both oral (HR: 1.70; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.68) and cervicogenital (HR 2.46; 95% CI 1.69 to 3.59) was associated with 2+ recent sexual partners. CONCLUSIONS: Detection of oral HPV was highly transient, but incidence was associated with recent deep kissing and sexual partners. Detection of cervicogenital HPV was more persistent, and incidence was positively associated with recent sexual partners and negatively associated with HPV vaccination.

Effectiveness and Safety of Apixaban versus Warfarin in Venous Thromboembolism Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease.

There has been limited evidence reported about the outcomes of oral anticoagulants among patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), especially those with stage V/end-stage renal disease (ESRD). This retrospective cohort analysis of five U.S. claims databases evaluated the risk of recurrent VTE, major bleeding (MB), and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (CRNMB) for apixaban versus warfarin among VTE patients diagnosed with CKD, including ESRD. Inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to balance patient characteristics between treatment cohorts. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated for recurrent VTE, MB, and CRNMB among patients with CKD who experienced an index VTE. An interaction analysis was conducted to evaluate treatment effects across different stages of CKD. A total of 29,790 VTE patients with CKD were selected for analyses, of whom 10,669 (35.8%) initiated apixaban and 19,121 (64.2%) initiated warfarin. Among IPTW-balanced patient cohorts, the apixaban group had significantly lower risk of recurrent VTE (HR: 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66-0.92), MB (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.65-0.88), and CRNMB (HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.80-0.93) than the warfarin group. When stratified by CKD stage (stage I/II: 8.2%; stage III: 49.4%; stage IV: 12.8%; stage V/ESRD: 12.0%; stage unspecified: 17.6%), no significant interaction was observed for effects of apixaban versus warfarin on recurrent VTE or MB. In summary, apixaban was associated with a significantly lower risk of recurrent VTE and MB than warfarin among VTE patients with CKD. CKD stages did not have significant impact on treatment effects for recurrent VTE and MB.

Comparative Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Warfarin Versus Apixaban in the Treatment of Patients with Venous Thromboembolism in a Large U.S. Commercial Claims Database.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE), constituting deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is a common cause of vascular-related morbidity and mortality, resulting in a significant clinical and economic burden in the United States each year. Clinical guidelines recommend that patients with DVT and PE without cancer should be initiated on anticoagulation therapy with a direct oral anticoagulant over a vitamin K antagonist. Yet there is limited real-world evidence comparing the economic burden of warfarin and apixaban in treating VTE patients in a large commercially insured population. OBJECTIVE: To compare safety and effectiveness of warfarin and apixaban and evaluate associated economic burden in treating VTE patients in a large U.S. commercial health care claims database. METHODS: The PharMetrics Plus database was used to identify oral anticoagulant (OAC)-naive patients aged ≥ 18 years who initiated apixaban or warfarin within 30 days of a qualifying VTE encounter and had continuous health plan enrollment with medical and pharmacy benefits for 6 months before treatment initiation. Apixaban initiators and warfarin initiators were matched using the propensity score matching (PSM) technique. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess and compare the risk of major bleeding (MB), clinically relevant nonmajor (CRNM) bleeding, and recurrent VTE. Generalized linear models were used to assess and compare the all-cause health care costs. A 2-part model with bootstrapping was used to evaluate MB- and recurrent VTE-related medical costs. RESULTS: Among 25,193 prematched patients, 13,421 (53.3%) were prescribed warfarin and 11,772 (46.7%) were prescribed apixaban. After 1:1 PSM, 8,858 matched warfarin-apixaban pairs were selected with a mean follow-up of 109 days and 103 days, respectively. Warfarin was associated with a significantly higher risk of MB (HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.14-2.04), CRNM bleeding (HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1017.15-1.40), and recurrent VTE (HR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.24-1.82) compared with apixaban. Warfarin patients had significantly higher all-cause medical costs per patient per month (PPPM; $2,333 vs. $1,992; P = 0.001), MB-related costs PPPM ($112 vs. $65; P = 0.020), and recurrent VTE-related costs PPPM ($287 vs. $206; P = 0.014) compared with apixaban patients. Warfarin patients had similar all-cause total health care costs PPPM ($2,630 vs. $2,420; P = 0.051) compared with apixaban patients. CONCLUSIONS: Warfarin use was associated with a higher risk of MB, CRNM bleeding, and recurrent VTE compared with apixaban. Warfarin use was also associated with higher all-cause medical costs, MB-related medical costs, and recurrent VTE-related costs PPPM compared with apixaban. DISCLOSURES: This study was funded by Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer, which were also involved in the study design, as well as writing and revising of the manuscript. Guo, Rajpura, Okano, and Rosenblatt are employees of Bristol Myers Squibb. Hlavacek, Mardekian, and Russ are employees of Pfizer. Keshishian, Sah, Delinger, and Mu are employees of SIMR, LLC, which received funding from the study sponsors to conduct this study.

HPV vaccination has not increased sexual activity or accelerated sexual debut in a college-aged cohort of men and women.

BACKGROUND: The human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted infection and is linked to several types of cancer. HPV vaccination uptake in the U.S. is relatively low, despite the vaccine's high efficacy. Some parents of adolescents have concerns that vaccination will encourage sexual behavior and therefore choose not to vaccinate. Previous studies investigating vaccination and sexual behavior have included only young women and girls. METHODS: The objective of this study is to assess associations between HPV-vaccination and sexual behavior in a college-age cohort of both men and women. We analyzed questionnaire data collected from the Michigan HPV and Oropharyngeal Cancer Study, a cohort study designed to investigate HPV infection and its association with sexual behavior (data collected 2015-17, Ann Arbor, MI). Here, we consider vaccination status, sexual behavior, and substance use among 241 college-aged men and women. Logistic, Poisson, and Cox regression were used to determine the relationship between probability of sexual debut, number of sexual partners, and HPV vaccination status at baseline as well as between age at sexual debut and vaccination status at debut. RESULTS: HPV vaccination status was not significantly associated with an increased likelihood of sexual debut (odds ratio: 0.80 (95% CI: 0.41-1.58), decreased age of sexual debut (hazard ratio: 0.81 (95% CI: 0.65-1.00), nor an increased number of sexual partners (per year sexually active; incidence rate ratio: 1.27 (95% CI: 0.86-1.87)) in this cohort, after controlling for age, race, sex, and substance use. Instead, race or alcohol use were independent predictors of sexual behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Concerns about the influence of the HPV vaccine on sexual behavior are likely unfounded for both men and women. These results can aid in increasing vaccine acceptability, inform and strengthen physician recommendations, and ultimately reduce the burden of HPV and HPV-related cancers in the U.S.

Dynamics and Determinants of HPV Infection: The Michigan HPV and Oropharyngeal Cancer (M-HOC) Study.

INTRODUCTION: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the primary cause of cervical and other anogenital cancers and is also associated with head and neck cancers. Incidence of HPV-related oropharyngeal squamous cell cancers (OPSCCs) is increasing, and HPV-related OPSCCs have surpassed cervical cancer as the most common HPV-related cancer in the USA. Given the multisite nature of HPV, there is strong interest in collecting data from both genital and oral sites, as well as associated data on social and sexual behaviours. The overarching goal of this study is to evaluate patterns of oral HPV infection incidence, clearance and persistence and their relationship to sexual behaviour history. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Participants are recruited from two populations: college students at a large public university and general population from the surrounding area. At the first study visit, participants complete a detailed sexual history, health and behaviour questionnaire. Follow-up visits occur every 3-4 months over 3 years, when participants complete an abbreviated questionnaire. All participants provide a saliva sample at each visit, and eligible participants may provide a cervicovaginal self-swab. Genetic material isolated from specimens is tested for 15 high-risk and 3 low-risk HPV types. Statistical analyses will examine outcome variables including HPV prevalence, incidence, persistence and clearance. Logistic regression models will be used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between the outcomes of interest and demographic/behavioural variables collected in the questionnaires. The longitudinal HPV infection data and detailed sexual history data collected in the questionnaires will allow us to develop individual-based network models of HPV transmission and will be used to parameterise multiscale models of HPV-related OPSC carcinogenesis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the University of Michigan Institutional Review Board. All participants are consented in person by trained study staff. Study results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications.

Design and rationale of the "Sedation strategy and cognitive outcome after critical illness in early childhood" study.

There is increasing concern that sedatives commonly used during critical illness may be neurotoxic during the period of early brain development. The Sedation strategy and cognitive outcome after critical illness in early childhood (RESTORE-cognition) study is a prospective cohort study designed to examine the relationships between sedative exposure during pediatric critical illness and long-term neurocognitive outcomes. We assess multiple domains of neurocognitive function 2.5-5 years post-hospital discharge, at a single time point and depending on participant and clinician availability, in up to 500 subjects who had normal baseline cognitive function, were aged 2 weeks to 8 years at pediatric intensive care unit admission, and were enrolled in a cluster randomized controlled trial of a sedation protocol (the RESTORE trial; U01 HL086622 and HL086649). In addition, to provide comparable data on an unexposed group with similar baseline biological characteristics and environment, we are studying matched, healthy siblings of RESTORE patients. Our goal is to increase understanding of the relationships between sedative exposure, critical illness, and long-term neurocognitive outcomes in infants and young children by studying these subjects 2.5 to 5 years after their index hospitalization. This paper highlights the design challenges in conducting comprehensive neurocognitive assessment procedures across a broad age span at multiple testing centers across the United States. Our approach, which includes building interprofessional teams and novel cohort retention strategies, may be of help in future longitudinal trials.