Hydrological control of river and seawater lithium isotopes.

Seawater lithium isotopes (δ7Li) record changes over Earth history, including a ∼9‰ increase during the Cenozoic interpreted as reflecting either a change in continental silicate weathering rate or weathering feedback strength, associated with tectonic uplift. However, mechanisms controlling the dissolved δ7Li remain debated. Here we report time-series δ7Li measurements from Tibetan and Pamir rivers, and combine them with published seasonal data, covering small (<102 km2) to large rivers (>106 km2). We find seasonal changes in δ7Li across all latitudes: dry seasons consistently have higher δ7Li than wet seasons, by -0.3‰ to 16.4‰ (mean 5.0 ± 2.5‰). A globally negative correlation between δ7Li and annual runoff reflects the hydrological intensity operating in catchments, regulating water residence time and δ7Li values. This hydrological control on δ7Li is consistent across climate events back to ~445 Ma. We propose that hydrological changes result in shifts in river δ7Li and urge reconsideration of its use to examine past weathering intensity and flux, opening a new window to reconstruct hydrological conditions.

Long-term patterns of hillslope erosion by earthquake-induced landslides shape mountain landscapes.

Widespread triggering of landslides by large storms or earthquakes is a dominant mechanism of erosion in mountain landscapes. If landslides occur repeatedly in particular locations within a mountain range, then they will dominate the landscape evolution of that section and could leave a fingerprint in the topography. Here, we track erosion provenance using a novel combination of the isotopic and molecular composition of organic matter deposited in Lake Paringa, New Zealand. We find that the erosion provenance has shifted markedly after four large earthquakes over 1000 years. Postseismic periods eroded organic matter from a median elevation of 722 +329/-293 m and supplied 43% of the sediment in the core, while interseismic periods sourced from lower elevations (459 +256/-226 m). These results are the first demonstration that repeated large earthquakes can consistently focus erosion at high elevations, while interseismic periods appear less effective at modifying the highest parts of the topography.

Monsoonal control on a delayed response of sedimentation to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

Infrequent extreme events such as large earthquakes pose hazards and have lasting impacts on landscapes and biogeochemical cycles. Sediments provide valuable records of past events, but unambiguously identifying event deposits is challenging because of nonlinear sediment transport processes and poor age control. Here, we have been able to directly track the propagation of a tectonic signal into stratigraphy using reservoir sediments from before and after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Cycles in magnetic susceptibility allow us to define a precise annual chronology and identify the timing and nature of the earthquake's sedimentary record. The grain size and Rb/Sr ratio of the sediments responded immediately to the earthquake. However, the changes were muted until 2 years after the event, when intense monsoonal runoff drove accumulation of coarser grains and lower Rb/Sr sediments. The delayed response provides insight into how climatic and tectonic agents interact to control sediment transfer and depositional processes.

Use of scenario ensembles for deriving seismic risk.

High death tolls from recent earthquakes show that seismic risk remains high globally. While there has been much focus on seismic hazard, large uncertainties associated with exposure and vulnerability have led to more limited analyses of the potential impacts of future earthquakes. We argue that as both exposure and vulnerability are reducible factors of risk, assessing their importance and variability allows for prioritization of the most effective disaster risk-reduction (DRR) actions. We address this through earthquake ensemble modeling, using the example of Nepal. We model fatalities from 90 different scenario earthquakes and establish whether impacts are specific to certain scenario earthquakes or occur irrespective of the scenario. Our results show that for most districts in Nepal impacts are not specific to the particular characteristics of a single earthquake, and that total modeled impacts are skewed toward the minimum estimate. These results suggest that planning for the worst-case scenario in Nepal may place an unnecessarily large burden on the limited resources available for DRR. We also show that the most at-risk districts are predominantly in rural western Nepal, with ∼9.5 million Nepalis inhabiting districts with higher seismic risk than Kathmandu. Our proposed approach provides a holistic consideration of seismic risk for informing contingency planning and allows the relative importance of the reducible components of risk (exposure and vulnerability) to be estimated, highlighting factors that can be targeted most effectively. We propose this approach for informing contingency planning, especially in locations where information on the likelihood of future earthquakes is inadequate.

Counter-intuitive influence of Himalayan river morphodynamics on Indus Civilisation urban settlements.

Urbanism in the Bronze-age Indus Civilisation (~4.6-3.9 thousand years before the present, ka) has been linked to water resources provided by large Himalayan river systems, although the largest concentrations of urban-scale Indus settlements are located far from extant Himalayan rivers. Here we analyse the sedimentary architecture, chronology and provenance of a major palaeochannel associated with many of these settlements. We show that the palaeochannel is a former course of the Sutlej River, the third largest of the present-day Himalayan rivers. Using optically stimulated luminescence dating of sand grains, we demonstrate that flow of the Sutlej in this course terminated considerably earlier than Indus occupation, with diversion to its present course complete shortly after ~8 ka. Indus urban settlements thus developed along an abandoned river valley rather than an active Himalayan river. Confinement of the Sutlej to its present incised course after ~8 ka likely reduced its propensity to re-route frequently thus enabling long-term stability for Indus settlements sited along the relict palaeochannel.

Scale-dependent erosional patterns in steady-state and transient-state landscapes.

Landscape topography is the expression of the dynamic equilibrium between external forcings (for example, climate and tectonics) and the underlying lithology. The magnitude and spatial arrangement of erosional and depositional fluxes dictate the evolution of landforms during both statistical steady state (SS) and transient state (TS) of major landscape reorganization. For SS landscapes, the common expectation is that any point of the landscape has an equal chance to erode below or above the landscape median erosion rate. We show that this is not the case. Afforded by a unique experimental landscape that provided a detailed space-time recording of erosional fluxes and by defining the so-called E50-area curve, we reveal for the first time that there exists a hierarchical pattern of erosion. Specifically, hillslopes and fluvial channels erode more rapidly than the landscape median erosion rate, whereas intervening parts of the landscape in terms of upstream contributing areas (colluvial regime) erode more slowly. We explain this apparent paradox by documenting the dynamic nature of SS landscapes-landscape locations may transition from being a hillslope to being a valley and then to being a fluvial channel due to ridge migration, channel piracy, and small-scale landscape dynamics through time. Under TS conditions caused by increased precipitation, we show that the E50-area curve drastically changes shape during landscape reorganization. Scale-dependent erosional patterns, as observed in this study, suggest benchmarks in evaluating numerical models and interpreting the variability of sampled erosional rates in field landscapes.

A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes.

The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but simple enough to be applied over entire watersheds. It accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of potential landslides using earth pressure theory and by representing root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are well constrained by field data. The model predicts failure for the observed scar geometry and finds that larger or smaller conformal shapes are more stable. Numerical experiments demonstrate that friction on the boundaries of a potential landslide increases considerably the magnitude of lateral reinforcement, relative to that due to root cohesion alone. We find that there is a critical depth in both cohesive and cohesionless soils, resulting in a minimum size for failure, which is consistent with observed size-frequency distributions. Furthermore, the differential resistance on the boundaries of a potential landslide is responsible for a critical landslide shape which is longer than it is wide, consistent with observed aspect ratios. Finally, our results show that minimum size increases as approximately the square of failure surface depth, consistent with observed landslide depth-area data.