New horizons in the analysis of hospital readmissions of older adults.

This short communication highlights analytical methods that can be usefully applied to the problem of hospital readmissions of older adults. The limitations of the models currently used in studies of hospital readmissions are described. In summary, analyses of hospital readmissions face two important methodological and statistical problems not accounted for by these currently used statistical models: the potential recurrence of readmissions, and death, a terminal event which absorbs the readmission process. Not addressing the issue raised by recurrent events and terminal event generates biased estimates. We discuss an approach for the analysis of hospital readmission risk and death in the same framework. Understanding the features of this kind of approaches is essential at a time when high-quality data on hospital readmission in older patients are becoming available to a large number of researchers. Models adapted for the analysis of recurrent and terminal events are presented, and their application to studies of hospital readmission are explained, with reference to two cohorts of several thousand older individuals.

Factors Associated with Transfer from an Acute Geriatric Unit to a Post-Acute Care Facility among Community-Dwelling Patients: Results from the DAMAGE Cohort.

Background: Acute geriatric units (AGUs) require efficient discharge planning tools. Risk factors for discharge from an AGU to post-acute care (PAC) have not previously been investigated in detail. Methods: The objective is to identify risk factors for PAC transfer. The DAMAGE (prospective multicenter cohort) consecutively included more than 3500 subjects aged 75 or older and admitted to an AGU. The patients underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) during their stay in the AGU. Only community-dwelling patients admitted to the AGU from the emergency department were included in the analysis. We recorded the characteristics of the care pathway and identified risk factors for discharge to home or to a PAC facility. Results: 1928 patients were included. Loss of functional independence (a decrease in the Katz activities of daily living (ADL) score between 1 month prior to admission and AGU admission), living alone, social isolation, a high Katz ADL score at home, a low Katz ADL on admission, and delirium on admission were risk factors for transfer to PAC. Obesity, an elevated serum albumin level, and community-acquired infection were associated with discharge to home. Neither sex nor age was a risk factor for home discharge or transfer to PAC. Conclusion: The present results might help clinicians and discharge planning teams to identify patients at risk of transfer to PAC more reliably and promptly in AGUs.

Transition to Comfort Care Only and End-of-Life Trajectories in an Acute Geriatric Unit: A Secondary Analysis of the DAMAGE Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Comfort care for a dying patient increases the quality of the end of life. End-of-life situations are frequently managed in acute geriatric units (AGUs), and transition to comfort care only is often necessary. However, the frequency of transition to comfort care and the latter's putative link with the end-of-life trajectory (sudden death, cancer, organ failure, and frailty with or without dementia) have not previously been studied in acute geriatric units. We sought to (1) describe end-of-life trajectories and the transition to comfort care only, and (2) analyse the relationship between the two, prior to death in an AGU. DESIGN: A secondary analysis of a subgroup of the DAMAGE cohort (a prospective multicentre cohort of 3509 patients aged 75 years and over and admitted consecutively to an AGU). SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: DAMAGE patients who died in an AGU after a stay of at least 48 hours. METHODS: Data on the end-of-life trajectory and the transition to comfort care only were extracted from medical records. RESULTS: Of the 177 included patients, 123 (69.5%) transitioned to comfort care only in the AGU. A frailty trajectory (in patients living with dementia or not) accounted for nearly 70% of deaths. Paradoxically, only frailty among people living without dementia was not significantly associated with a more frequent transition to comfort care [odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 1.44 (0.44-4.76), relative to a patient dying suddenly]. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Transition to comfort care only is frequent in AGUs and is linked to the end-of-life trajectory (except for frail patients living without dementia). The frailty trajectory is one of the most frequent, and, therefore, physicians must be aware of the need to improve practice in this context.

Mortality risk and antibiotic use for COVID-19 in hospitalized patients over 80.

INTRODUCTION: Patients over 80 years of age are more prone to develop severe symptoms and die from COVID-19. Antibiotics were massively prescribed in the first days of the pandemic without evidence of super infection. Antibiotics may increase the risk of mortality in cases of viral pneumonia. With age and antibiotic use, the microbiota becomes altered and less protective effect against lethal viral pneumonia. Thus we assessed whether it is safe to prescribe antibiotics for COVID-19 pneumonia to patients over 80 years of age. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective monocentric study in a 1240-bed university hospital. Our inclusion criteria were patients aged ≥ 80 years, hospitalized in a COVID-19 unit, with either a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR from a nasopharyngeal swab or a CT scan within 72 h after or prior to hospitalization in the unit suggestive of infection. RESULTS: We included 101 patients who received antibiotics and 48 who did not. The demographics in the two groups were similar. Overall mortality was higher for the group that received antibiotics than for the other group (36.6% vs 14.6%,). According to univariate COX analysis, the risk of mortality was higher (HR = 1.98 [0.926; 4.23]) but non-significantly for the antibiotic group. In multivariate analysis, independent risk factors of mortality were an increased leukocyte count and decreased oxygen saturation (HR = 1.097 [1.022; 1.178] and HR = 0.927 [0.891; 0.964], respectively). CONCLUSION: This study raises questions about the interest of antibiotic therapy, its efficacy, and its effect on COVID-19 and encourages further research.

Development of a Predictive Score for Mortality at 3 and 12 Months After Discharge From an Acute Geriatric Unit as a Trigger for Advanced Care Planning.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for a mortality score that can be used to trigger advanced care planning among older patients discharged from acute geriatric units (AGUs). OBJECTIVE: We developed a prognostic score for 3- and 12-month mortality after discharge from an AGU, based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment, in-hospital events, and the exclusion of patients already receiving palliative care. METHODS: Devenir Après la Médecine Aigue Gériatrique (DAMAGE) is a French multicenter, prospective, cohort study. The broad inclusion criteria ensured that the cohort is representative of patients treated in an AGU. The DAMAGE participants underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment, a daily clinical checkup, and follow-up visits 3 and 12 months after discharge. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to develop a prognostic score for the derivation and validation subsets. RESULTS: A total of 3 509 patients were assessed and 3 112 were included. The patient population was very old and frail or dependant, with a high proportion of deaths at 3 months (n = 455, 14.8%) and at 12 months (n = 1 014, 33%). The score predicted an individual risk of mortality ranging from 1% to 80% at 3 months and between 5% and 93% at 12 months, with an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve in the validation cohort of 0.728 at 3 months and 0.733 at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Our score predicted a broad range of risks of death after discharge from the AGU. Having this information at the time of hospital discharge might trigger a discussion on advanced care planning and end-of-life care with very old, frail patients. Clinical Trials Registration Number: NCT02949635.

Risk Factors for Hospital Readmission and Death After Discharge of Older Adults from Acute Geriatric Units: Taking the Rank of Admission into Account.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of the number of hospital readmissions on the risks of further hospital readmission and death after adjustment for a range of risk factors. METHODS: We performed a multicentre prospective study of the DAMAGE cohort in the Hauts-de-France region of France. Patients aged 75 and over hospitalized initially in an acute geriatric unit (AGU) were included and followed up for 12 months. The risk of hospital readmission was analyzed using a Cox model, and its extension for recurrent events and the risk of death were analyzed using a Cox model for time-dependent variables. RESULTS: A total of 3081 patients were included (mean (SD) age: 86.4 (5.5)). In the multivariate analysis, the relative risk (95% confidence interval [CI]) of hospital readmission rose progressively to 2.66 (1.44; 5.14), and the risk of death rose to 2.01 (1.23; 3.32) after five hospital admissions, relative to a patient with no hospital readmissions. The number of hospital readmissions during the follow-up period was the primary risk factor and the best predictor of the risk of hospital readmission and the risk of death. CONCLUSION: Hospital readmission is the primary risk factor for further hospital readmissions and for death in older subjects discharged from an AGU.

The association between body mass index class and coronavirus disease 2019 outcomes.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: A growing body of data suggests that obesity influences coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Our study's primary objective was to assess the association between body mass index (BMI) categories and critical forms of COVID-19. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Data on consecutive adult patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 at Amiens University Hospital (Amiens, France) were extracted retrospectively. The association between BMI categories and the composite primary endpoint (admission to the intensive care unit or death) was probed in a logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 433 patients were included, and BMI data were available for 329: 20 were underweight (6.1%), 95 have a normal weight (28.9%), 90 were overweight (27.4%), and 124 were obese (37.7%). The BMI category was associated with the primary endpoint in the fully adjusted model; the odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for overweight and obesity were respectively 1.58 [0.77-3.24] and 2.58 [1.28-5.31]. The ORs [95% CI] for ICU admission were similar for overweight (3.16 [1.29-8.06]) and obesity (3.05 [1.25-7.82]) in the fully adjusted model. The unadjusted ORs for death were similar in all BMI categories while obesity only was associated with higher risk after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that overweight (and not only obesity) is associated with ICU admission, but overweight is not associated with death.

Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients with and without diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly progressing pandemic, with four million confirmed cases and 280 000 deaths at the time of writing. Some studies have suggested that diabetes is associated with a greater risk of developing severe forms of COVID-19. The primary objective of the present study was to compare the clinical features and outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients with vs without diabetes. METHODS: All consecutive adult patients admitted to Amiens University Hospital (Amiens, France) with confirmed COVID-19 up until April 21st, 2020, were included. The composite primary endpoint comprised admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and death. Both components were also analysed separately in a logistic regression analysis and a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: A total of 433 patients (median age: 72; 238 (55%) men; diabetes: 115 (26.6%)) were included. Most of the deaths occurred in non-ICU units and among older adults. Multivariate analyses showed that diabetes was associated neither with the primary endpoint (odds ratio (OR): 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.66-1.90) nor with mortality (hazard ratio: 0.73; 95%CI: 0.40-1.34) but was associated with ICU admission (OR: 2.06; 95%CI 1.09-3.92, P = .027) and a longer length of hospital stay. Age was negatively associated with ICU admission and positively associated with death. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes was prevalent in a quarter of the patients hospitalized with COVID-19; it was associated with a greater risk of ICU admission but not with a significant elevation in mortality. Further investigation of the relationship between COVID-19 severity and diabetes is warranted.

[Association between lymphopenia of elderly patients and intrahospital mortality in a geriatric acute care unit]. / Association entre lymphopénie et mortalité chez les sujets âgés admis en unité de médecine aiguë gériatrique.

UNLABELLED: Age-related immune impairment may be one of the factors influencing successful and pathological aging, being strongly tied to nutritional status. Several long term cohort studies suggest that a lower total lymphocyte count is associated with higher mortality. Nevertheless, prevalence, incidence and impact of lymphopenia on frailty and prediction of pathological events have not been described extensively. The principal aim of this study was to examine the relation of lymphopenia and intra-hospital mortality in the elderly. MATERIALS AND METHOD: This cohort study has been carried out in a geriatric acute care unit of the Grenoble University hospital in France. Clinical and biological data have been retrospectively retrieved from the electronic medical record of each patient. All patients aged 75 or older admitted in the unit from May to October 2011 were eligible for inclusion. A lymphocyte count was obtained within 48h hours before or after admission. RESULTS: 239 patients were included. Mean age (SD) was 87.04(5.50) years, 82(34.3%) patients were men, median ADL (activities of daily living) score prior to hospitalization was 4 (Q1:2; Q3:6). 31(13%) patients died during their admission. A lympocyte's threshold of 1,100cells/µL establishes a sensitivity of 79.3%, a specificity of 57.2%, a positive predictive value (PV+) of 21.7%, as well as a negative predictive value (PV-) of 94.9%. The OR was 3.44(IC95%, [(1.54-8.10]). The AL's threshold was found to be 3g/dL, establishing a sensitivity of 79.3%, a specificity of 62.0%, a PV+ of 22.8%, PV- of 95.5%. The OR was 4.90(IC 95%, [(2.17-11.87]). In multivariate analysis, LC and AL were significantly predicting in hospital death (OR=2.80 IC95% [(1.18-7.02] p=0.02, OR=3.34 (IC95%, [(1.41 -8.36]) p=0.007 respectively). CONCLUSION: This observational study carried out with malnourished, functionally impaired older inpatients with multiple comorbidities shows that lymphopenia independentely predicts intra-hospital mortality. In multivariate analysis lymphocyte count and albumin level independently predict intra-hospital mortality in with a similar predictive performance. Low albumin levels have previously been shown to be an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older persons as well as to predict intra-hospital mortality. However in our study we included patients with an acute condition and multiple comorbidities, potentially confounding the relation between lymphopenia and mortality. Lymphopenia may be an interesting marker of frailty and prognosis in very elderly people presenting an acute condition.

[Lung cancer in adults: Better prognosis of patients aged 45 and under related to good condition and lower TNM stage (a comparative and retrospective study)]. / Meilleur pronostic des sujets de 45ans et moins, atteints de cancer du poumon, lié au bon état général et au stade TNM plus faible (étude rétrospective et comparative).

BACKGROUND: Bronchogenic carcinoma (BC) is a worldwide health public problem with a parallel but delayed development to smoking. The prognosis of BC in young patients is poorly known mainly because of few studies that have looked at this group of patients. The hypothesis of our study is that 'young' patients with BC have a better prognosis than others. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective epidemiologic study of all patients aged 45 and under (n=73) followed for BC between 2002 and 2007 in two hospitals in the central region in France, compared with patients over 45 years random (n=73). We evaluated the clinical characteristics (sex, smoking habits, WHO status, clinical presentation, histology, TNM stage), the management and prognosis of these patients. RESULTS: The median survival of patients aged 45 and under was 13.4 months against 8.9 months for patients over 45 years. In multivariate analysis, age is not an independent prognostic factor (P=0.41) in contrast to the WHO status (P=0.002) and initial TNM stage (P<0.001). There was no significant difference for other clinical characteristics between the two patient populations. CONCLUSION: In our study, the better prognosis of the "young" patient group is not directly related to age but in good condition and lower TNM stage of these patients.