Decreasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma among most racial groups: SEER-22, 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence was rising in the United States. Previously, using data collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program through 2017, we found that overall incidence had begun to decline, although not in Black and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations. Utilizing expanded SEER data encompassing ~50% of the population, we examined secular trends and demographic differences in HCC incidence through 2019. METHODS: We included cases of HCC diagnosed in adults aged ≥20 years residing in SEER-22 registry areas. We examined case counts, incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years), annual percent changes (APCs), and calendar years when APCs changed significantly. RESULTS: HCC incidence increased from 5.56 in 2000 to 8.89 in 2009 (APC, 5.17%), then rose more slowly during 2009-2015 (APC, 2.28%). After peaking at 10.03 in 2015, incidence fell to 9.20 in 2019 (APC, -2.26%). In Asian/Pacific Islanders (A/PI), the decline began in 2007 and accelerated in 2015 (APCs: 2007-2015, -1.84%; 2015-2019, -5.80%). In 2014, incidence began to fall in the White (APC: 2014-2019, -1.11%) and Hispanic populations (APC: 2014-2019, -1.72%). In 2016, rates began to fall in Black individuals (APC: 2016-2019, -6.05%). In the AI/AN population, incidence was highest in 2017, although the subsequent decline was not statistically significant. In 2019, population-specific rates were: White, 6.94; Black, 10.74; A/PI, 12.11; AI/AN, 14.56; Hispanic, 15.48. CONCLUSION: HCC incidence is now decreasing in most US racial/ethnic populations, including among Black individuals. The onset of decline differed among racial/ethnic groups and wide disparities in HCC rates remain.

Incidence of Burkitt lymphoma in the United States during 2000 to 2019.

Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is an aggressive B-cell lymphoma that occurs worldwide. A study of BL in the US National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program during 1973 to 2005 (n = 3043) revealed three age-specific incidence peaks of BL and rates that were rising. We studied BL cases diagnosed in SEER 22 during 2000 to 2019 (n = 11 626) to investigate age-specific BL incidence rates and temporal trends. The age-standardized BL incidence rate was 3.96/million person-years, with a 2.85:1 male-to-female ratio. The BL rate among both Hispanic and White individuals was higher than in Black individuals (4.52, 4.12 vs 3.14). Age-specific BL rates showed peaks during pediatric, adult and elderly years in males and pediatric and elderly peaks in females. Based on 4524 BL cases with HIV status (SEER 13), only one peak in adult males (45 years) was observed. Overall age-standardized BL incidence rates rose 1.2%/year (not significant) up to 2009 then fell significantly by 2.4%/year thereafter. Temporal trends in BL rates during 2000 to 2019 varied with age group as pediatric BL rates rose 1.1%/year, while elderly BL rates fell 1.7%/year and adult BL rates rose 3.4%/year until 2007 before falling 3.1%/year thereafter. Overall survival from BL was 64% at 2 years, being highest in pediatric patients and lowest in Black and elderly individuals vs other subgroups. Survival improved by 20% between 2000 and 2019. Our data suggest that BL age-specific incidence rates are multimodal and that overall BL rates rose up to 2009 and then fell, suggesting changes in etiological factors or diagnosis.

Geographic Patterns in U.S. Lung Cancer Mortality and Cigarette Smoking.

BACKGROUND: Despite the success of smoking cessation campaigns, lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in the U.S. Variations in smoking behavior and lung cancer mortality are evident by sex and region. METHODS: Applying geospatial methods to lung cancer mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and county-level estimates of smoking prevalences from the NCI's Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Measures, we evaluated patterns in lung cancer mortality rates (2005-2018) in relation to patterns in ever cigarette smoking prevalences (1997-2003). RESULTS: Overall, ever smoking spatial patterns were generally associated with lung cancer mortality rates, which were elevated in the Appalachian region and lower in the West for both sexes. However, we also observed geographic variation in mortality rates that is not explained by smoking. Using Lee's L statistic for assessing bivariate spatial association, we identified counties where the ever smoking prevalence was low and lung cancer rates were high. We observed a significant cluster of counties (n = 25; P values ranging from 0.001 to 0.04) with low ever smoking prevalence and high mortality rates among females around the Mississippi River region south of St. Louis, Missouri and a similar and smaller cluster among males in Western Mississippi (n = 12; P values ranging from 0.002 to 0.03) that has not been previously described. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses identified U.S. counties where factors other than smoking may be driving lung cancer mortality. IMPACT: These novel findings highlight areas where investigation of environmental and other risk factors for lung cancer is needed.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Hysterectomy-Corrected Uterine Corpus Cancer Mortality by Stage and Histologic Subtype.

Importance: Uterine cancer incidence has been increasing, particularly rates of aggressive, nonendometrioid subtypes, which are disproportionately higher among non-Hispanic Black women. The association of subtype-specific trends with uterine cancer mortality and with the role of tumor subtype and stage at diagnosis with racial disparities in uterine cancer deaths at the population-based level are not known. Objective: To estimate histologic subtype- and stage-specific uterine cancer mortality rates by race and ethnicity, corrected for hysterectomy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-18 Incidence-Based Mortality database, representing approximately 26% of the US population and including deaths that occurred from 2000 to 2017. Hysterectomy correction was based on hysterectomy prevalence data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Uncorrected and corrected rates associated with uterine corpus cancer cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 and uterine corpus cancer deaths occurring between 2010 and 2017 were age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population and are expressed per 100 000 person-years, and annual percent changes in rates were calculated using log-linear regression. Data analysis was performed from March 10 to May 20, 2021. Exposures: Tumor histologic subtype, cancer stage at diagnosis, and race and ethnicity. Results: Among 208 587 women diagnosed with uterine cancer during 2000-2017 (15 983 [7.7%] were Asian; 20 302 [9.7%] Black; 23 096 [11.1%] Hispanic; and 149 206 [71.5%] White individuals), there were 16 797 uterine cancer deaths between 2010 and 2017, corresponding to a hysterectomy-corrected mortality rate of 15.7 per 100 000 person-years. Hysterectomy-corrected rates were highest among Black women, overall, by histologic subtype and stage at diagnosis. Among all women, uterine corpus cancer mortality rates increased significantly by 1.8% (95% CI, 1.5%-2.9%) per year from 2010 to 2017, as did rates of nonendometrioid carcinomas (2.7%; 95% CI, 1.8%-3.6%), with increases occurring in Asian (3.4%; 95% CI, 0.3%-6.6%), Black (3.5%; 95% CI, 2.2%-4.9%), Hispanic (6.7%; 95% CI, 1.9%-11.8%), and White women (1.5%; 95% CI, 0.6%-2.4%). In contrast, endometrioid carcinoma mortality rates remained stable. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest a significant increase of nonendometrioid uterine carcinoma mortality rates, aligning with recent incidence trends. The factors associated with these trends are not well understood and require more investigation of possible mechanisms. Despite stable incidence rates, endometrioid cancer mortality rates have not decreased over the past decade at the population level, suggesting limited progress in treatment for these cancers. The substantial disparities in uterine corpus cancer mortality rates among non-Hispanic Black women cannot be fully explained by subtype distribution and stage at diagnosis.

Nonmalignant meningioma and vestibular schwannoma incidence trends in the United States, 2004-2017.

BACKGROUND: Given concerns about risks associated with the growing use of mobile phones over recent decades, the authors analyzed temporal trends in incidence rates of nonmalignant meningioma and vestibular schwannoma in the United States. METHODS: The incidence of nonmalignant meningioma and vestibular schwannoma among adults in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 registries during 2004 through 2017 was evaluated according to the method of diagnosis: microscopically (MC) or radiographically confirmed (RGC). Annual percent changes (APCs) and 95% CIs were estimated using log-linear models. RESULTS: Overall meningioma rates (n = 108,043) increased significantly from 2004 to 2009 (APC, 5.4%; 95% CI, 4.4%-6.4%) but subsequently rose at a slower pace through 2017 (APC, 1.0%; 95% CI, 0.6%-1.5%). Rates for MC meningiomas changed little from 2004 to 2017 (APC, -0.3%; 95% CI, -0.7%, 0.1%) but rose rapidly for RGC meningiomas until 2009 (APC, 9.5%; 95% CI, 7.8%-11.1%) and rose more modestly thereafter (APC, 2.3%; 95% CI, 1.5%-3.0%). Overall vestibular schwannoma rates (n = 17,475) were stable (APC, 0.4%; 95% CI, -0.2%, 1.0%), but MC vestibular schwannoma rates decreased (APC, -1.9%; 95% CI, -2.7%, -1.1%), whereas RGC vestibular schwannoma rates rose (2006-2017: APC, 1.7%; 95% CI, 0.5%-3.0%). For each tumor, the trends by diagnostic method were similar for each sex and each racial/ethnic group, but RGC diagnosis was more likely in older patients and for smaller tumors. Meningioma trends and the proportion of RGC diagnoses varied notably by registry. CONCLUSIONS: Overall trends obscured differences by diagnostic method in this first large, detailed assessment, but the recent stable rates argue against an association with mobile phone use. Variation among registries requires evaluation to improve the registration of these nonmalignant tumors. LAY SUMMARY: The etiology of most benign meningiomas and vestibular schwannomas is poorly understood, but concerns have been raised about whether mobile phone use contributes to risk of developing these tumors. Descriptive studies examining temporal trends could provide insight; however, globally, few registries collect these nonmalignant cases. In the United States, reporting benign meningiomas and vestibular schwannomas became required by law in 2004. This was the first large, systematic study to quantify and characterize incidence trends for meningioma and vestibular schwannoma according to whether the tumors were diagnosed microscopically or only radiographically. Differential trends across registries and by diagnostic method suggest that caution should be used when interpreting the patterns.

Hysterectomy-Corrected Uterine Corpus Cancer Incidence Trends and Differences in Relative Survival Reveal Racial Disparities and Rising Rates of Nonendometrioid Cancers.

PURPOSE: Uterine corpus cancer incidence rates have been projected to increase, a prediction often attributed to the obesity epidemic. However, correct estimation of these rates requires accounting for hysterectomy prevalence, which varies by race, ethnicity, and region. Here, we evaluated recent trends in hysterectomy-corrected rates by race and ethnicity and histologic subtype and estimated differences in relative survival by race and ethnicity, subtype, and stage. METHODS: We estimated hysterectomy prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Hysterectomy-corrected age-standardized uterine corpus cancer incidence rates from 2000 to 2015 were calculated from the SEER 18 registries. Incidence rates and trends were estimated separately by race and ethnicity, region, and histologic subtype. Five-year relative survival rates were estimated by race and ethnicity, histologic subtype, and stage. RESULTS: Hysterectomy-corrected incidence rates of uterine corpus cancer were similar among non-Hispanic whites and blacks and lower among Hispanics and Asians/Pacific Islanders. Endometrioid carcinoma rates were highest in non-Hispanic whites, whereas nonendometrioid carcinoma and sarcoma rates were highest in non-Hispanic blacks. Hysterectomy-corrected uterine corpus cancer incidence increased among non-Hispanic whites from 2003 to 2015 and among non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, and Asians/Pacific Islanders from 2000 to 2015. Overall incidence rates among non-Hispanic blacks surpassed those of non-Hispanic whites in 2007. Endometrioid carcinoma rates rose among non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, and Asians/Pacific Islanders but were stable among non-Hispanic whites; however, nonendometrioid carcinoma rates rose significantly among all women. Non-Hispanic blacks had the lowest survival rates, irrespective of stage at diagnosis or histologic subtype. CONCLUSION: Among all women, rates of nonendometrioid subtypes have been rising rapidly. Our analysis shows profound racial differences and disparities indicated by higher rates of nonendometrioid subtypes and poorer survival among non-Hispanic black women.

Inflammatory and other breast cancer incidence rate trends by estrogen receptor status in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2001-2015).

PURPOSE: Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) rates increased in the United States before the turn of the twenty-first century. We examine trends by estrogen receptor (ER) status since then. METHODS: Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program for years 2001-2015, we calculated age-adjusted incidence rates for IBC (defined by AJCC TNM category T4d, extent of disease codes, and morphology code 8530) by ER status, which was imputed if unknown, among women aged 25-84 years. For comparison, we included other locally advanced breast cancer and other breast cancers partitioned into localized and regional/distant/unstaged. We fit joinpoint log-linear models to annual rates to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). RESULTS: The rate of increase in ER+ IBC rates among women aged 25-44 (AAPC = 0.5) was similar to other advanced tumor types, but declines among women aged 45-84 (AAPC = - 2.2) were more rapid. Declines in ER- IBC rates for women aged 25-84 (AAPC = - 3.7) were more rapid than for other tumor types. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show a reversal of the rising rates of IBC overall reported at the end of the twentieth century. Direction of trends for IBC is consistent with other breast cancer types, except for ER+ localized breast cancer in older women. Decreasing parity and rising prevalence of older age at first birth may contribute to declining rates of ER- IBC. Otherwise, patterns of changing risk factors are inconsistent with the trends we observed. Further studies of IBC are necessary to identify additional risk factors and possible preventive strategies.

Higher Lung Cancer Incidence in Young Women Than Young Men in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies showed a higher incidence of lung cancer among young women than among young men in the United States. Whether this pattern has continued in contemporary birth cohorts and, if so, whether it can be fully explained by sex differences in smoking behaviors are unknown. METHODS: We examined the nationwide population-based incidence of lung cancer according to sex, race or ethnic group, age group (30 to 34, 35 to 39, 40 to 44, 45 to 49, and 50 to 54 years), year of birth (1945 to 1980), and calendar period of diagnosis (1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014), and we calculated female-to-male incidence rate ratios. We also examined the prevalence of cigarette smoking, using data from the National Health Interview Survey from 1970 to 2016. RESULTS: Over the past two decades, the age-specific incidence of lung cancer has generally decreased among both men and women 30 to 54 years of age in all races and ethnic groups, but the declines among men have been steeper. Consequently, among non-Hispanic whites, the female-to-male incidence rate ratios increased, exceeding 1.0 in the age groups of 30 to 34, 35 to 39, 40 to 44, and 45 to 49 years. For example, the female-to-male incidence rate ratio among whites 40 to 44 years of age increased from 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 0.92) during the 1995-1999 period to 1.17 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.23) during the 2010-2014 period. The crossover in sex-specific rates occurred among non-Hispanic whites born since 1965. Sex-specific incidence rates converged among non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders but crossed over from a higher incidence among men to a higher incidence among women only among Hispanics. The prevalence of cigarette smoking among women born since 1965 has approached, but generally not exceeded, the prevalence among men. CONCLUSIONS: The patterns of historically higher incidence rates of lung cancer among men than among women have reversed among non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics born since the mid-1960s, and they are not fully explained by sex differences in smoking behaviors. Future studies are needed to identify reasons for the higher incidence of lung cancer among young women. (Funded by the American Cancer Society.).

Pancreatic cancer incidence trends: evidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) population-based data.

Background: Annual pancreatic cancer incidence rates have been increasing. We examine pancreatic cancer incidence trends by demographics and histologic type. Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registries were available to assess temporal trends and pancreatic cancer rates from 1974 to 2013. Results: Pancreatic cancer incidence rates declined between the 1970s and 1990s but increased from 1994 to 2013 among White males. Among non-Hispanic White and Hispanic males, the annual percent change (APC) in incidence between 1992 and 2013 was 0.84% and 0.73%, respectively. Rates also rose among White non-Hispanic, Hispanic and Asian females (APC = 0.81%, 0.56% and 1.23%, respectively) and even more rapidly among females aged 25-34 years (APC > 2.5%). Rates among Black males and females remained unchanged, but higher compared with the other racial/ethnic groups. By histologic type, the increases were greatest for non-secretory endocrine cancers ( > 6%), followed by ductal adenocarcinomas (∼5%) and adenocarcinoma, NOS (∼1.4%)-the largest histologic subgroup of pancreatic cancer. Rates for mucinous adenocarcinomas and poorly specified pancreatic cancer decreased. Overall, incidence rates during 2000-13 were higher among males than females [MF incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.28]. The IRR was >1.00 at all ages ≥ 35, but rates among females were higher at younger ages (IRRs 15-24: 0.66, 25-34: 0.81). The MF IRRs for most of the histologic types were elevated among males apart from solid pseudopapillary adenocarcinoma and cystic carcinomas (IRR = 0.22, confidence interval: 0.14-0.34 and 0.52, 0.41-0.65, respectively). Conclusion: Pancreatic cancer has been increasing overall, but patterns differ by demographic group and histologic type. Many of the trends parallel changing prevalence of lifestyle risk factors such as smoking, overweight and obesity, and diabetes in the USA, particularly for pancreatic adenocarcinoma, and improved diagnosis methods during the past 40 years.

Predicting the Future Burden of Esophageal Cancer by Histological Subtype: International Trends in Incidence up to 2030.

OBJECTIVES: Rapid increases in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in high-income countries in the past decades have raised public health concerns. This study is the first to predict the future burden of esophageal cancer by histological subtype using international incidence data. METHODS: Data on esophageal cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex, histology, and age group were extracted from 42 registries in 12 countries included in the last three volumes (VIII-X) of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, contributing at least 15 years of consecutive data. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted up to 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models; the differential impact of demographic vs. risk changes on future cases were examined. RESULTS: The number of new AC cases is expected to increase rapidly 2005-2030 in all studied countries as a combined result of increasing risk and changing demographics. In contrast, the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is predicted to continue decreasing in most countries. By 2030, 1 in 100 men in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are predicted to be diagnosed with EAC during their lifetime. CONCLUSIONS: The burden from EAC is expected to rise dramatically across high-income countries and has already or will surpass ESCC incidence in the coming years, especially among men. Notwithstanding the inherent uncertainties in trend-based predictions and in subtype misclassification, these findings highlight an ongoing transition in the epidemiology of esophageal cancer that is highly relevant to future cancer control planning and clinical practice.

Trends in Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the United States, 1974-2013.

Importance: Thyroid cancer incidence has increased substantially in the United States over the last 4 decades, driven largely by increases in papillary thyroid cancer. It is unclear whether the increasing incidence of papillary thyroid cancer has been related to thyroid cancer mortality trends. Objective: To compare trends in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality by tumor characteristics at diagnosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: Trends in thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates were evaluated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-9 (SEER-9) cancer registry program, and annual percent change in rates was calculated using log-linear regression. Exposure: Tumor characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Annual percent changes in age-adjusted thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates by histologic type and SEER stage for cases diagnosed during 1974-2013. Results: Among 77 276 patients (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 48 [16] years; 58 213 [75%] women) diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974-2013, papillary thyroid cancer was the most common histologic type (64 625 cases), and 2371 deaths from thyroid cancer occurred during 1994-2013. Thyroid cancer incidence increased, on average, 3.6% per year (95% CI, 3.2%-3.9%) during 1974-2013 (from 4.56 per 100 000 person-years in 1974-1977 to 14.42 per 100 000 person-years in 2010-2013), primarily related to increases in papillary thyroid cancer (annual percent change, 4.4% [95% CI, 4.0%-4.7%]). Papillary thyroid cancer incidence increased for all SEER stages at diagnosis (4.6% per year for localized, 4.3% per year for regional, 2.4% per year for distant, 1.8% per year for unknown). During 1994-2013, incidence-based mortality increased 1.1% per year (95% CI, 0.6%-1.6%) (from 0.40 per 100 000 person-years in 1994-1997 to 0.46 per 100 000 person-years in 2010-2013) overall and 2.9% per year (95% CI, 1.1%-4.7%) for SEER distant stage papillary thyroid cancer. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients in the United States diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974-2013, the overall incidence of thyroid cancer increased 3% annually, with increases in the incidence rate and thyroid cancer mortality rate for advanced-stage papillary thyroid cancer. These findings are consistent with a true increase in the occurrence of thyroid cancer in the United States.

Longitude Position in a Time Zone and Cancer Risk in the United States.

Background: Circadian disruption is a probable human carcinogen. From the eastern to western border of a time zone, social time is equal, whereas solar time is progressively delayed, producing increased discrepancies between individuals' social and biological circadian time. Accordingly, western time zone residents experience greater circadian disruption and may be at an increased risk of cancer.Methods: We examined associations between the position in a time zone and age-standardized county-level incidence rates for total cancers combined and 23 specific cancers by gender using the data of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (2000-2012), including four million cancer diagnoses in white residents of 607 counties in 11 U.S. states. Log-linear regression was conducted, adjusting for latitude, poverty, cigarette smoking, and state. Bonferroni-corrected P values were used as the significance criteria.Results: Risk increased from east to west within a time zone for total and for many specific cancers, including chronic lymphocytic leukemia (both genders) and cancers of the stomach, liver, prostate, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in men and cancers of the esophagus, colorectum, lung, breast, and corpus uteri in women.Conclusions: Risk increased from the east to the west in a time zone for total and many specific cancers, in accord with the circadian disruption hypothesis. Replications in analytic epidemiologic studies are warranted.Impact: Our findings suggest that circadian disruption may not be a rare phenomenon affecting only shift workers, but is widespread in the general population with broader implications for public health than generally appreciated. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(8); 1306-11. ©2017 AACR.

Prostate-specific antigen testing for prostate cancer: Depleting a limited pool of susceptible individuals?

After the introduction of the prostate specific antigen (PSA) test in the 1980s, a sharp increase in the incidence rate of prostate cancer was seen in the United States. The age-specific incidence patterns exhibited remarkable shifts to younger ages, and declining rates were observed at old ages. Similar trends were seen in Norway. We investigate whether these features could, in combination with PSA testing, be explained by a varying degree of susceptibility to prostate cancer in the populations. We analyzed incidence data from the United States' Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for 1973-2010, comprising 511,027 prostate cancers in men ≥40 years old, and Norwegian national incidence data for 1953-2011, comprising 113,837 prostate cancers in men ≥50 years old. We developed a frailty model where only a proportion of the population could develop prostate cancer, and where the increased risk of diagnosis due to the massive use of PSA testing was modelled by encompassing this heterogeneity in risk. The frailty model fits the observed data well, and captures the changing age-specific incidence patterns across birth cohorts. The susceptible proportion of men is [Formula: see text] in the United States and [Formula: see text] in Norway. Cumulative incidence rates at old age are unchanged across birth cohort exposed to PSA testing at younger and younger ages. The peaking cohort-specific age-incidence curves of prostate cancer may be explained by the underlying heterogeneity in prostate cancer risk. The introduction of the PSA test has led to a larger number of diagnosed men. However, no more cases are being diagnosed in total in birth cohorts exposed to the PSA era at younger and younger ages, even though they are diagnosed at younger ages. Together with the earlier peak in the age-incidence curves for younger cohorts, and the strong familial association of the cancer, this constitutes convincing evidence that the PSA test has led to a higher proportion, and an earlier timing, of diagnoses in a limited pool of susceptible individuals.

Incidence and patient survival of myeloproliferative neoplasms and myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasms in the United States, 2001-12.

Descriptive epidemiological information on myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) and myelodysplastic (MDS)/MPNs is largely derived from single institution and European population-based studies. Data obtained following adoption of the World Health Organization classification of haematopoietic neoplasms and JAK2 V617F mutation testing are sparse. Using population-based data, we comprehensively assessed subtype-specific MPN and MDS/MPN incidence rates (IRs), IR ratios (IRRs) and relative survival (RS) in the United States (2001-12). IRs were highest for polycythaemia vera (PV) (IR = 10·9) and essential thrombocythaemia (ET) (IR = 9·6). Except for ET and mastocytosis, overall IRs were significantly higher among males (IRRs = 1·4-2·3). All evaluable MPNs were associated with lower IRs among Hispanic whites than non-Hispanic whites (NHWs), with the exception of BCR-ABL1-positive chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), chronic eosinophilic leukaemia (CEL) and juvenile myelomonocytic leukaemia. Except for CEL, Asians/Pacific Islanders had significantly lower MPN IRs than NHWs. ET, MPN-unclassifiable and CEL IRs were 18%, 19% and 60% higher, respectively, among blacks than NHWs. Five-year RS was more favourable for younger (<60 years) than older individuals and for women compared with men, except for PV at older ages. RS was highest (>90%) for younger PV and ET patients and lowest (<20%) for older chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia and atypical BCR-ABL1-negative CML patients. Varying MPN and MDS/MPN incidence patterns by subtype support distinct aetiologies and/or susceptible populations. Decreased survival rates as compared to that expected in the general population were associated with every MPN subtype, highlighting the need for new treatments, particularly among older individuals.

International long-term trends and recent patterns in the incidence of leukemias and lymphomas among children and adolescents ages 0-19 years.

To enhance understanding of etiology, we examined international population-based cancer incidence data for lymphoid leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma and myeloid leukemia among children aged 0-19. Based on temporal trends during 1978-2007 in 24 populations, lymphoid leukemia and myeloid leukemia incidence rates generally have not changed greatly and differences in rates for non-Hodgkin and for Hodgkin lymphoma have diminished in some regions. Lymphoid leukemia rates during 2003-2007 in 54 populations varied about 10-fold, with rates highest in US white Hispanics (50.2 per million person-years) and Ecuador (48.3) and lowest in US blacks (20.4), Tunisia (17.7) and Uganda (6.9). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma rates varied 30-fold, with very high rates in sub-Saharan Africa (146.0 in Malawi and 54.3 in Uganda) and low rates (≤ 10) in some Asian populations (China, Japan, India, the Philippines and Thailand) and U.S. Asian-Pacific Islanders, eastern and northern European populations and Puerto Rico. Hodgkin lymphoma rates varied 15-fold, with rates highest in Italy (21.3) and lowest in China (1.7). Myeloid leukemia rates varied only about fivefold, with rates highest in the Philippines and Korea (exceeding 14.0) and lowest in Eastern Europe (5.9 in Serbia and 5.3 in the Czech Republic) and Uganda (2.7). The boy/girl average incidence rate ratios were 2.00 or lower. Age-specific patterns differed among the four hematopoietic malignancies, but were generally consistent within major categories world-wide, except for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. A systematic world-wide approach comparing postulated etiologic factors in low- versus high-risk populations may help clarify the etiology of these childhood malignancies.

Prostate cancer incidence in 43 populations worldwide: An analysis of time trends overall and by age group.

Prostate cancer is a significant public health burden and a major cause of morbidity and mortality among men worldwide. Analyzing geographic patterns and temporal trends may help identify high-risk populations, suggest the degree of PSA testing, and provide clues to etiology. We used incidence data available from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and certain cancer registries for 43 populations across five continents during a median period of 24 years. Trends in overall prostate cancer rates showed five distinct patterns ranging from generally monotonic increases to peaking of rates followed by declines, which coincide somewhat with changes in the prevalence of PSA testing. Trends in age-specific rates generally mirrored those in the overall rates, with several notable exceptions. For populations where overall rates increased rapidly and then peaked, exemplified in North America and Oceania, the highest incidence tended to be most pronounced and occurred during earlier calendar years among older men compared with younger ones. For populations with almost continual increases in overall rates, exemplified in Eastern Europe and Asia, peaks were evident among men aged ≥ 75 years in many instances. Rates for ages 45-54 years did not clearly stabilize or decline in the majority of studied populations. Global geographic variation remained substantial for both overall and age-specific incidence rates regardless of levels of PSA testing, with the lowest rates consistently in Asia. Explanations for the persistent geographic differences and the continuing increases of especially early-onset prostate cancer remain unclear.

Anal Cancer Incidence in the United States, 1977-2011: Distinct Patterns by Histology and Behavior.

BACKGROUND: Although anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (ADC) are generally combined in cancer surveillance, their etiologies likely differ. Here, we describe demographic characteristics and trends in incidence rates (IR) of anal cancer by histology (SCC, ADC) and behavior (invasive, in situ) in the United States. METHODS: With data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, we estimated age-adjusted anal cancer IRs across behavior/histology by demographic and tumor characteristics for 2000-2011. Trends in IRs and annual percent changes during 1977-2011 were also estimated and compared with rectal cancer. RESULTS: Women had higher rates of SCC [rate ratio (RR), 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.40-1.50] and lower rates of ADC (RR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.62-0.74) and squamous carcinoma in situ (CIS; RR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.34-0.38) than men. Blacks had lower rates of SCC (RR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.77-0.87) and CIS (RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.98) than non-Hispanic whites, but higher rates of ADC (RR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.29-1.70). Anal cancer IRs were higher in men and blacks aged <40 years. During 1992-2011, SCC IRs increased 2.9%/year, ADC IRs declined nonsignificantly, and CIS IRs increased 14.2%/year. SCC and ADC IR patterns and trends were similar across anal and rectal cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of anal SCC and CIS have increased strongly over time, in contrast to rates of anal ADC, similar to trends observed for rectal SCC and ADC. IMPACT: Anal SCC and ADC likely have different etiologies, but may have similar etiologies to rectal SCC and ADC, respectively. Strong increases in CIS IRs over time may reflect anal cancer screening patterns.