Predicting stroke risk after sepsis hospitalization with new-onset atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during sepsis is common, but models designed to stratify stroke risk excluded patients with secondary AF. We assessed the predictive validity of CHA2DS2VASc scores among patients with new-onset AF during sepsis and developed a novel stroke prediction model incorporating presepsis and intrasepsis characteristics. METHODS: We included patients ≥40 years old who survived hospitalizations with sepsis and new-onset AF across 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals from January 1, 2011 to September 30, 2017. We calculated the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for CHA2DS2VASc scores to predict stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) within 1 year after a hospitalization with new-onset AF during sepsis using Fine-Gray models with death as competing risk. We similarly derived and validated a novel model using presepsis and intrasepsis characteristics associated with 1-year stroke/TIA risk. RESULTS: Among 82,748 adults hospitalized with sepsis, 3992 with new-onset AF (median age: 80 years, median CHA2DS2VASc of 4) survived to discharge, among whom 70 (2.1%) experienced stroke or TIA outcome and 1393 (41.0%) died within 1 year of sepsis. The CHA2DS2VASc score was not predictive of stroke risk after sepsis (AUC: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-0.52). A newly derived model among 2555 (64%) patients in the derivation set and 1437 (36%) in the validation set included 13 variables and produced an AUC of 0.61 (0.49-0.73) in derivation and 0.54 (0.43-0.65) in validation. CONCLUSION: Current models do not accurately stratify risk of stroke following new-onset AF secondary to sepsis. New tools are required to guide anticoagulation decisions following new-onset AF in sepsis.

Practice Patterns and Outcomes Associated With Anticoagulation Use Following Sepsis Hospitalizations With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Practice patterns and outcomes associated with the use of oral anticoagulation for arterial thromboembolism prevention following a hospitalization with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during sepsis are unclear. METHODS: Retrospective, observational cohort study of patients ≥40 years of age discharged alive following hospitalization with new-onset AF during sepsis across 21 hospitals in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California health care delivery system, years 2011 to 2018. Primary outcomes were ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), with a safety outcome of major bleeding events, both within 1 year of discharge alive from sepsis hospitalization. Adjusted risk differences for outcomes between patients who did and did not receive oral anticoagulation within 30 days of discharge were estimated using marginal structural models fitted by inverse probability weighting using Super Learning within a target trial emulation framework. RESULTS: Among 82 748 patients hospitalized with sepsis, 3992 (4.8%) had new-onset AF and survived to hospital discharge; mean age was 78±11 years, 53% were men, and 70% were White. Patients with new-onset AF during sepsis averaged 45±33% of telemetry monitoring entries with AF, and 27% had AF present on the day of hospital discharge. Within 1 year of hospital discharge, 89 (2.2%) patients experienced stroke/TIA, 225 (5.6%) had major bleeding, and 1011 (25%) died. Within 30 days of discharge, 807 (20%) patients filled oral anticoagulation prescriptions, which were associated with higher 1-year adjusted risks of ischemic stroke/TIA (5.69% versus 2.32%; risk difference, 3.37% [95% CI, 0.36-6.38]) and no significant difference in 1-year adjusted risks of major bleeding (6.51% versus 7.10%; risk difference, -0.59% [95% CI, -3.09 to 1.91]). Sensitivity analysis of ischemic stroke-only outcomes showed a risk difference of 0.15% (95% CI, -1.72 to 2.03). CONCLUSIONS: After hospitalization with new-onset AF during sepsis, oral anticoagulation use was uncommon and associated with potentially higher stroke/TIA risk. Further research to inform mechanisms of stroke and TIA and management of new-onset AF after sepsis is needed.

Prognostic Accuracy of Presepsis and Intrasepsis Characteristics for Prediction of Cardiovascular Events After a Sepsis Hospitalization.

OBJECTIVES: Sepsis survivors face increased risk for cardiovascular complications; however, the contribution of intrasepsis events to cardiovascular risk profiles is unclear. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) and Intermountain Healthcare (IH) integrated healthcare delivery systems. SUBJECTS: Sepsis survivors (2011-2017 [KPNC] and 2018-2020 [IH]) greater than or equal to 40 years old without prior cardiovascular disease. DESIGN: Data across KPNC and IH were harmonized and grouped into presepsis (demographics, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease scores, comorbidities) or intrasepsis factors (e.g., laboratory values, vital signs, organ support, infection source) with random split for training/internal validation datasets (75%/25%) within KPNC and IH. Models were bidirectionally, externally validated between healthcare systems. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Changes to predictive accuracy (C-statistic) of cause-specific proportional hazards models predicting 1-year cardiovascular outcomes (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation events) were compared between models that did and did not contain intrasepsis factors. Among 39,590 KPNC and 16,388 IH sepsis survivors, 3,503 (8.8%) at Kaiser Permanente (KP) and 600 (3.7%) at IH experienced a cardiovascular event within 1-year after hospital discharge, including 996 (2.5%) at KP and 192 (1.2%) IH with an atherosclerotic event first, 564 (1.4%) at KP and 117 (0.7%) IH with a heart failure event, 2,310 (5.8%) at KP and 371 (2.3%) with an atrial fibrillation event. Death within 1 year after sepsis occurred for 7,948 (20%) KP and 2,085 (12.7%) IH patients. Combined models with presepsis and intrasepsis factors had better discrimination for cardiovascular events (KPNC C-statistic 0.783 [95% CI, 0.766-0.799]; IH 0.763 [0.726-0.801]) as compared with presepsis cardiovascular risk alone (KPNC: 0.666 [0.648-0.683], IH 0.660 [0.619-0.702]) during internal validation. External validation of models across healthcare systems showed similar performance (KPNC model within IH data C-statistic: 0.734 [0.725-0.744]; IH model within KPNC data: 0.787 [0.768-0.805]). CONCLUSIONS: Across two large healthcare systems, intrasepsis factors improved postsepsis cardiovascular risk prediction as compared with presepsis cardiovascular risk profiles. Further exploration of sepsis factors that contribute to postsepsis cardiovascular events is warranted for improved mechanistic and predictive models.

Association between Troponin I Levels during Sepsis and Postsepsis Cardiovascular Complications.

Rationale: Sepsis commonly results in elevated serum troponin levels and increased risk for postsepsis cardiovascular complications; however, the association between troponin levels during sepsis and cardiovascular complications after sepsis is unclear.Objectives: To evaluate the association between serum troponin levels during sepsis and 1 year after sepsis cardiovascular events.Methods: We analyzed adults aged ⩾40 years without preexisting cardiovascular disease within 5 years, admitted with sepsis across 21 hospitals from 2011 to 2017. Peak serum troponin I levels during sepsis were grouped as normal (⩽0.04 ng/ml) or tertiles of abnormal (>0.04 to ⩽0.09 ng/ml, >0.09 to ⩽0.42 ng/ml, or >0.42 ng/ml). Multivariable adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models with death as a competing risk were used to assess associations between peak troponin I levels and a composite cardiovascular outcome (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure) in the year following sepsis. Models were adjusted for presepsis and intrasepsis factors considered potential confounders.Measurements and Main Results: Among 14,046 eligible adults with troponin I measured, 2,012 (14.3%) experienced the composite cardiovascular outcome, including 832 (10.9%) patients with normal troponin levels, as compared with 370 (17.3%), 376 (17.6%), and 434 (20.3%) patients within each sequential abnormal troponin tertile, respectively (P < 0.001). Patients within the elevated troponin tertiles had increased risks of adverse cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]troponin0.04-0.09 = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-1.55; aHRtroponin0.09-0.42 = 1.44; 95% CI, 1.27-1.63; and aHRtroponin>0.42 = 1.77; 95% CI, 1.56-2.00).Conclusions: Among patients without preexisting cardiovascular disease, troponin elevation during sepsis identified patients at increased risk for postsepsis cardiovascular complications. Strategies to mitigate cardiovascular complications among this high-risk subset of patients are warranted.

Don't Ditch the Laptop Just Yet: A Direct Replication of Mueller and Oppenheimer's (2014) Study 1 Plus Mini Meta-Analyses Across Similar Studies.

In this direct replication of Mueller and Oppenheimer's (2014) Study 1, participants watched a lecture while taking notes with a laptop (n = 74) or longhand (n = 68). After a brief distraction and without the opportunity to study, they took a quiz. As in the original study, laptop participants took notes containing more words spoken verbatim by the lecturer and more words overall than did longhand participants. However, laptop participants did not perform better than longhand participants on the quiz. Exploratory meta-analyses of eight similar studies echoed this pattern. In addition, in both the original study and our replication, higher word count was associated with better quiz performance, and higher verbatim overlap was associated with worse quiz performance, but the latter finding was not robust in our replication. Overall, results do not support the idea that longhand note taking improves immediate learning via better encoding of information.