Leisure-time physical activity and life expectancy in people with cardiometabolic multimorbidity and depression.

BACKGROUND: Whether and to what extent leisure-time physical activity at the recommended levels of 150-min moderate activity is associated with survival in people with cardiometabolic multimorbidity and depression is unknown. METHODS: UK Biobank participants were classified into groups: (i) no disease; (ii) diabetes; (iii) cardiovascular disease (CVD); (iv) depression; (v) diabetes and CVD; (vi) diabetes and depression; (vii) CVD and depression; (viii) diabetes, CVD and depression. Leisure-time physical activity was categorized as active (meeting recommendations) or inactive. Survival models were applied to estimate life expectancy. RESULTS: A total of 480 940 participants were included (median age, 58 years; 46% men; 95% white), of whom 74% with cardiometabolic multimorbidity and depression were inactive. During a mean follow-up of 7 years, 11 006 deaths occurred. At age of 45 years, being physically active was associated with 2.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.93, 3.54) additional years of life compared with being inactive in participants with diabetes; corresponding estimates were 2.28 (1.40, 3.16) for CVD; 2.15 (0.05, 4.26) for diabetes and CVD; and 1.58 (1.27, 1.89) for no disease. Participants with a combination of diabetes, CVD and depression, being active was associated with 6.81 (-1.50, 15.31) additional years compared with being inactive; corresponding estimates were 3.07 (-2.46, 8.59) for diabetes and depression; 2.34 (-1.24, 5.91) for CVD and depression; and 0.80 (-0.46, 2.05) for depression. A similar pattern was found at 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Meeting the recommended level of physical activity was associated with a longer life expectancy in people with cardiometabolic multimorbidity but not in those with depression.

Body mass index and mortality in people with and without diabetes: A UK Biobank study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To investigate the association of body mass index with all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality in individuals with and without diabetes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used data on 490,852 participants from the UK Biobank, with linkage to national mortality data between 2006 and 2016. Using Cox regression, we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality within body mass index categories in people with and without diabetes adjusting for potential confounders. 24,789 (5.0%) participants reported having diabetes at baseline. Over a median follow-up of 6.9 years, 13,896 participants died, of which 1800 had diabetes. Compared with normal body mass index (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), mortality risk in the overweight group (25.0-29.9 kg/m2) was 33% lower in people with diabetes (HR 0.67, 95%CI 0.62-0.73) and 12% lower in participants without (HR 0.88, 95%CI 0.85-0.90). For class I obesity (30.0-34.9 kg/m2), mortality risk was 35% lower in participants with diabetes (HR 0.65, 95%CI 0.59-0.71) and 5% lower in participants without (HR 0.95, 95%CI 0.91-0.99). For class III obesity (≥40 kg/m2), there was a 10% non-significant lower mortality risk compared to normal body mass index in people with diabetes (HR 0.90, 95%CI 0.77-1.05); in contrast, the risk was 29% higher in people without diabetes (HR 1.29, 95%CI 1.13-1.45). Similar patterns were observed for cardiovascular mortality but not for cancer mortality. CONCLUSION: The impact of obesity on the risk of mortality was dependent on the presence of diabetes: for the same level of obesity, mortality risk was higher in people without diabetes compared to those with diabetes.

External national validation of the Leicester Self-Assessment score for Type 2 diabetes using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

AIMS: To validate the Leicester Self-Assessment score using a representative English dataset for detecting prevalent non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes (defined as HbA1c ≥6.0%) and for identifying those who may go on to develop Type 2 diabetes within 10 years. METHODS: Data were taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a nationally representative dataset of people aged ≥50 years. The area under the receiver-operator curve and performance metrics for the score at the recommended score threshold (≥16), were calculated for the outcomes of HbA1c ≥42 mmol/mol (6.0%) at baseline and self-reported Type 2 diabetes within 10 years in those aged 50-75 years at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 3203 individuals had a baseline HbA1c measurement, of whom 247 (7.7%) had an HbA1c concentration ≥42 mmol/mol (6.0%). The area under the receiver-operator curve was 69.4% (95% CI 66.0-72.9) for baseline HbA1c ≥42 mmol/mol. A total of 3550 individuals had diabetes status recorded at 10 years, of whom 324 (9.1%) were diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes within this time; the area under the receiver-operator curve for this outcome was 74.9% (95% CI 72.4-77.5). The score threshold of ≥16 had a sensitivity of 89.2% (95% CI 85.3-92.4) and a specificity of 42.3% (95% CI 40.5-44.0) for Type 2 diabetes within 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The Leicester Self-Assessment score is validated for use across England to identify people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes. Those with a high score are at high risk of developing diabetes in the future.

Limited risks of major congenital anomalies in children of mothers with coeliac disease: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine major congenital anomaly (CA) risks in children of mothers with coeliac disease (CD) compared with mothers without CD. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Linked maternal-child medical records from a large primary care database from the UK. POPULATION: A total of 562,332 live singletons of mothers with and without CD in 1990-2013. METHODS: We calculated the absolute major CA risks in children whose mothers had CD, and whether this was diagnosed or undiagnosed before childbirth. Logistic regression with a generalised estimating equation was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for CAs associated with CD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fourteen system-specific major CA groups classified according to the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies and neural tube defects (NTDs). RESULTS: Major CA risk in 1880 children of mothers with CD was 293 per 10,000 liveborn singletons, similar to the risk in those without CD (282; aOR 0.98, 95% CI 0.74-1.30). The risk was slightly higher in 971 children, whose mothers were undiagnosed (350; aOR 1.14, 95% CI 0.79-1.64), than in 909 children whose mothers were diagnosed (231; aOR 0.80, 95% CI 0.52-1.24). There was a three-fold increase in nervous system anomalies in the children of mothers with undiagnosed CD (aOR 2.98, 95% CI 1.06-8.33, based on five exposed cases and one had an NTD), and these women were all diagnosed with CD at least 4 years after their children were born. CONCLUSIONS: There was no statistically significant increase in risk of major CAs in children of mothers with coeliac disease overall, compared with the general population.

Occurrence of fertility problems presenting to primary care: population-level estimates of clinical burden and socioeconomic inequalities across the UK.

STUDY QUESTION: What are the age-specific incident rates of clinically recorded fertility problems in women aged 15-49 years and how do they vary by socioeconomic group and geographic area. SUMMARY ANSWER: The incident rate of recorded fertility problems was highest in women age 30-34 years: about 1% of women per annum. Overall rates did not vary by socioeconomic group; however, age-specific rates varied substantially by socioeconomic deprivation quintile; among younger women, deprivation was associated with higher infertility rates. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY AND WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: The rates of infertility in the UK range from 2 to 26%. Infertility definitions and denominators vary widely, and most current evidence is based on questionnaire studies that are subject to recall, reporting and selection bias. The current paper presents population-based estimates of clinically recorded fertility problems in women of reproductive age and the variation by age and socioeconomic deprivation quintile across different regions of the UK, using a nationally representative cohort of women that is larger than any previous study. Although infertility overall does not vary by socioeconomic status, consultation for fertility problems is closely related to socioeconomic patterns of women's age at first conception, demonstrating that many couples have pre-existing, rather than specifically age-related, infertility. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This cohort study used data from The Health Improvement Network, a computerized primary care database of anonymized patient records from general practices across the UK, with prospective health records on over 1.7 million women between 1990 and 2010. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING AND METHODS: Our cohort included 1,776,746 women of reproductive age (age 15-49 years) who contributed one or more years of active general practice registration. We estimated rates of new clinically recorded fertility problems in these women using medical records and medications exclusively used to treat infertility. We assessed variation in age-specific incidence by socioeconomic deprivation quintile and geographic area using Poisson regression. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The rate of incident recorded fertility problems was highest in women in the 30-34 year age group (10.9 per 1000 person-years), which equates to approximately 1% of women per annum in this age group. Lowest rates were in women in the 15-19 and 45-49 year age groups (0.7 and 0.4 per 1000 person-years, respectively). Overall rates did not vary by socioeconomic group, measured using quintiles of the Townsend index. Age-specific rates, however, varied substantially with socioeconomic deprivation quintile (P-value for interaction < 0.0001) such that up to age 25, women with more deprivation had more recorded fertility problems [rate ratio (RR) comparing most to least deprived 5.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.4-7.2 at 15-20 years of age]. This reversed from age 25 to 39, when women with more deprivation had fewer recorded fertility problems (RR 0.6 95% CI 0.5-0.6 at age 30-34). After age 40, there was no socioeconomic gradient in absolute rates. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: This is by far the largest population-based study to estimate clinically recorded fertility problems in women and the first in the UK to assess variation across such a broad age group from 15 to 49 years. Our data, however, did not capture women who experience difficulty in conceiving, but do not consult their general practitioner (GP) regarding fertility problems. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Compared with existing estimates, our measures of the extent and distribution of recorded fertility problems in primary care are more useful for GPs, primary care trusts and policy makers for the planning and delivery of fertility services. We have shown a high burden of infertility with little geographic variation; however, the significant burden in young, more deprived women needs recognition in light of age restrictions for treatment availability for infertility in the UK. Not only does treatment access need to be universal and more equitably allocated across socioeconomic groups, but also more resources are required to reduce fertility problems by targeting modifiable risk factors. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): There was no direct source of funding for this research work. N.N.D. completed the work as part of an M.Sc., which was funded by Developing Solutions Scholarship provided by the International Office, University of Nottingham. J.W. is supported by a University of Nottingham/National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Senior Clinical Research Fellowship. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable.