The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis.

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Rapid speciation via the evolution of pre-mating isolation in the Iberá Seedeater.

Behavioral isolation can catalyze speciation and permit the slow accumulation of additional reproductive barriers between co-occurring organisms. We illustrate how this process occurs by examining the genomic and behavioral bases of pre-mating isolation between two bird species (Sporophila hypoxantha and the recently discovered S. iberaensis) that belong to the southern capuchino seedeaters, a recent, rapid radiation characterized by variation in male plumage coloration and song. Although these two species co-occur without obvious ecological barriers to reproduction, we document behaviors indicating species recognition by song and plumage traits and strong assortative mating associated with genomic regions underlying male plumage patterning. Plumage differentiation likely originated through the reassembly of standing genetic variation, indicating how novel sexual signals may quickly arise and maintain species boundaries.

A test of the riverine barrier hypothesis in the largest subtropical river basin in the Neotropics.

The riverine barrier hypothesis proposes that large rivers represent geographical barriers to gene flow for terrestrial organisms, leading to population differentiation and ultimately allopatric speciation. Here we assess for the first time if the subtropical Paraná-Paraguay River system in the Del Plata basin, second in size among South American drainages, acts as a barrier to gene flow for birds. We analysed the degree of mitochondrial and nuclear genomic differentiation in seven species with known subspecies divided by the Paraná-Paraguay River axis. Only one species showed genetic differentiation concordant with the current river channel, but another five species have an east/west genetic split broadly coincident with the Paraná River's dynamic palaeochannel, suggesting this fluvial axis has had a past role in shaping present-day genetic structure. Moreover, dating analyses show that these splits have been asynchronous, with species responding differently to the riverine barrier. Comparisons informed by the geological history of the Paraná River and its influence on the ecological and climatic differences among ecoregions in the study area further bolster the finding that responses to this geographical barrier have been species-specific.

Potential effects of climate change on the water level, flora and macro-fauna of a large neotropical wetland.

Possible consequences of climate change in one of the world's largest wetlands (Ibera, Argentina) were analysed using a multi-scale approach. Climate projections coupled to hydrological models were used to analyse variability in wetland water level throughout the current century. Two potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions were explored, both resulting in an increase in the inter-annual fluctuations of the water level. In the scenario with higher emissions, projections also showed a long-term negative trend in water-level. To explore the possible response of biota to such water-level changes, species-area relationships of flora and aerial censuses of macro-fauna were analysed during an extraordinary dry period. Plant species richness at the basin scale was found to be highly resistant to hydrological changes, as the large dimension of the wetland acts to buffer against the water-level variations. However, local diversity decreased significantly with low water levels, leading to the loss of ecosystem resilience to additional stressors. The analysis of macro-fauna populations suggested that wetland provides refuge, in low water periods, for the animals with high dispersal ability (aquatic and migratory birds). On the contrary, the abundance of animals with low dispersal ability (mainly herbivorous species) was negatively impacted in low water periods, probably because they are required to search for alternative resources beyond the wetland borders. This period of resource scarcity was also related to increased mortality of large mammals (e.g. marsh deer) around water bodies with high anthropogenic enrichment and cyanobacteria dominance. The synergy between recurrent climatic fluctuations and additional stressors (i.e. biological invasions, eutrophication) presents an important challenge to the conservation of neotropical wetlands in the coming decades.

Rapid phenotypic evolution during incipient speciation in a continental avian radiation.

Adaptive radiations have helped shape how we view animal speciation, particularly classic examples such as Darwin's finches, Hawaiian fruitflies and African Great Lakes cichlids. These 'island' radiations are comparatively recent, making them particularly interesting because the mechanisms that caused diversification are still in motion. Here, we identify a new case of a recent bird radiation within a continentally distributed species group; the capuchino seedeaters comprise 11 Sporophila species originally described on the basis of differences in plumage colour and pattern in adult males. We use molecular data together with analyses of male plumage and vocalizations to understand species limits of the group. We find marked phenotypic variation despite lack of mitochondrial DNA monophyly and few differences in other putatively neutral nuclear markers. This finding is consistent with the group having undergone a recent radiation beginning in the Pleistocene, leaving genetic signatures of incomplete lineage sorting, introgressive hybridization and demographic expansions. We argue that this apparent uncoupling between neutral DNA homogeneity and phenotypic diversity is expected for a recent group within the framework of coalescent theory. Finally, we discuss how the ecology of open habitats in South America during the Pleistocene could have helped promote this unique and ongoing radiation.