The global fatty liver disease Sustainable Development Goal country score for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver disease is highly prevalent, resulting in overarching wellbeing and economic costs. Addressing it requires comprehensive and coordinated multisectoral action. We developed a fatty liver disease Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) country score to provide insights into country-level preparedness to address fatty liver disease through a whole-of-society lens. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We developed 2 fatty liver disease-SDG score sets. The first included 6 indicators (child wasting, child overweight, noncommunicable disease mortality, a universal health coverage service coverage index, health worker density, and education attainment), covering 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017. The second included the aforementioned indicators plus an urban green space indicator, covering 60 countries and territories for which 2017 data were available. To develop the fatty liver disease-SDG score, indicators were categorized as "positive" or "negative" and scaled from 0 to 100. Higher scores indicate better preparedness levels. Fatty liver disease-SDG scores varied between countries and territories (n = 195), from 14.6 (95% uncertainty interval: 8.9 to 19.4) in Niger to 93.5 (91.6 to 95.3) in Japan; 18 countries and territories scored > 85. Regionally, the high-income super-region had the highest score at 88.8 (87.3 to 90.1) in 2017, whereas south Asia had the lowest score at 44.1 (42.4 to 45.8). Between 1990 and 2017, the fatty liver disease-SDG score increased in all super-regions, with the greatest increase in south Asia, but decreased in 8 countries and territories. CONCLUSIONS: The fatty liver disease-SDG score provides a strategic advocacy tool at the national and global levels for the liver health field and noncommunicable disease advocates, highlighting the multisectoral collaborations needed to address fatty liver disease, and noncommunicable diseases overall.

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk.

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

Measuring contraceptive method mix, prevalence, and demand satisfied by age and marital status in 204 countries and territories, 1970-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Meeting the contraceptive needs of women of reproductive age is beneficial for the health of women and children, and the economic and social empowerment of women. Higher rates of contraceptive coverage have been linked to the availability of a more diverse range of contraceptive methods. We present estimates of the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), demand satisfied, and the method of contraception used for both partnered and unpartnered women for 5-year age groups in 204 countries and territories between 1970 and 2019. METHODS: We used 1162 population-based surveys capturing contraceptive use among women between 1970 and 2019, in which women of reproductive age (15-49 years) self-reported their, or their partner's, current use of contraception for family planning purposes. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of the CPR, mCPR, demand satisfied, and method mix by age and marital status. We assessed how age-specific mCPR and demand satisfied changed with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of social and economic development, using the meta-regression Bayesian, regularised, trimmed method from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. FINDINGS: In 2019, 162·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155·6-170·2) women had unmet need for contraception, of whom 29·3% (27·9-30·6) resided in sub-Saharan Africa and 27·2% (24·4-30·3) resided in south Asia. Women aged 15-19 years (64·8% [62·9-66·7]) and 20-24 years (71·9% [68·9-74·2]) had the lowest rates of demand satisfied, with 43·2 million (95% UI 39·3-48·0) women aged 15-24 years with unmet need in 2019. The mCPR and demand satisfied among women aged 15-19 years were substantially lower than among women aged 20-49 years at SDI values below 60 (on a 0-100 scale), but began to equalise as SDI increased above 60. Between 1970 and 2019, the global mCPR increased by 20·1 percentage points (95% UI 18·7-21·6). During this time, traditional methods declined as a proportion of all contraceptive methods, whereas the use of implants, injections, female sterilisation, and condoms increased. Method mix differs substantially depending on age and geography, with the share of female sterilisation increasing with age and comprising more than 50% of methods in use in south Asia. In 28 countries, one method was used by more than 50% of users in 2019. INTERPRETATION: The dominance of one contraceptive method in some locations raises the question of whether family planning policies should aim to expand method mix or invest in making existing methods more accessible. Lower rates of demand satisfied among women aged 15-24 years are also concerning because unintended pregnancies before age 25 years can forestall or eliminate education and employment opportunities that lead to social and economic empowerment. Policy makers should strive to tailor family planning programmes to the preferences of the groups with the most need, while maintaining the programmes used by existing users. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Advancing the global public health agenda for NAFLD: a consensus statement.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a potentially serious liver disease that affects approximately one-quarter of the global adult population, causing a substantial burden of ill health with wide-ranging social and economic implications. It is a multisystem disease and is considered the hepatic component of metabolic syndrome. Unlike other highly prevalent conditions, NAFLD has received little attention from the global public health community. Health system and public health responses to NAFLD have been weak and fragmented, and, despite its pervasiveness, NAFLD is largely unknown outside hepatology and gastroenterology. There is only a nascent global public health movement addressing NAFLD, and the disease is absent from nearly all national and international strategies and policies for non-communicable diseases, including obesity. In this global Delphi study, a multidisciplinary group of experts developed consensus statements and recommendations, which a larger group of collaborators reviewed over three rounds until consensus was achieved. The resulting consensus statements and recommendations address a broad range of topics - from epidemiology, awareness, care and treatment to public health policies and leadership - that have general relevance for policy-makers, health-care practitioners, civil society groups, research institutions and affected populations. These recommendations should provide a strong foundation for a comprehensive public health response to NAFLD.

Association between Mycobacterium avium Complex Pulmonary Disease and Mycobacteria in Home Water and Soil.

Rationale: Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), including Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC), are emerging pathogens that can opportunistically cause debilitating pulmonary disease in susceptible human hosts. Potential sources of exposure in homes include point-of-use water sources, such as taps and showerheads, as well as gardening soils. The relative human health impacts of NTM in these home environments remain poorly understood.Objectives: This study tested associations between MAC pulmonary disease and NTM colonization of five potential point-of-use sources of pathogen exposure in homes.Methods: A case-control study was conducted of Washington and Oregon residents who had been diagnosed with MAC pulmonary disease, and population controls were matched by age, sex, and geography. Samples were collected from bathroom faucets, kitchen faucets, shower aerosols, indoor soil, and outdoor soil. Mycobacteria in environmental samples were identified in a blinded fashion by using bacteriological culture combined with polymerase chain reaction. The isolation of NTM from case homes (n = 56) versus control homes (n = 51) was quantitatively compared using conditional logistic regression models with adjustment for potential confounding variables.Results: NTM were isolated from shower aerosols collected in case homes more often than in control homes. An adjusted conditional logistic regression analysis showed that NTM isolation from shower aerosols had a high odds ratio associated with disease (odds ratio, 4.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-13). Other home environmental samples (tap water, soils) did not exhibit this association.Conclusions: The results implicate shower aerosols as uniquely significant sources of NTM exposure in homes.

Patient Willingness to Have Tests to Guide Antibiotic Use for Respiratory Tract Infections: From the WWAMI Region Practice and Research Network (WPRN).

INTRODUCTION: The majority of consultations for acute respiratory tract infections (RTIs) lead to prescriptions for antibiotics, which have limited clinical benefit. We explored patients' willingness to have blood tests as part of the diagnostic work-up for RTIs, and patient knowledge about antibiotics. METHODS: Patients at 6 family medicine clinics were surveyed. Regression modeling was used to determine independent predictors of willingness to have venous and point-of-care (POC) blood tests, and knowledge of the value of antibiotics for RTIs. RESULTS: Data were collected from 737 respondents (response rate 83.8%), of whom 65.7% were women, 60.1% were white, and 25.1% were current smokers; patients' mean age was 46.9 years. Sex (female), race (white), and a preference to avoid antibiotics were independent predictors of greater level of antibiotic knowledge. A total of 63.1% were willing to have a venous draw and 79% a POC blood test, to help guide antibiotic decision-making. Non-American Indian/Alaskan Native race, current smoking, and greater knowledge of antibiotics were independent predictors of willingness to have a POC test. CONCLUSION: A large majority of patients seemed willing to have POC tests to facilitate antibiotic prescribing decisions for RTIs. Poor knowledge about antibiotics suggests better education regarding antibiotic use might influence patient attitudes towards use of antibiotics for RTIs.

Qualitative study of primary care clinicians' views on point-of-care testing for C-reactive protein for acute respiratory tract infections in family medicine.

OBJECTIVE: To explore clinicians views of the barriers and facilitators to use of C-reactive protein (CRP) point-of-care tests (POCT) in US family medicine clinics for the management of acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) in adults. SETTING: Five family medicine clinics across two US states. PARTICIPANTS: 30 clinicians including 18 physicians, 9 physician residents, 2 physician assistants and 1 nurse practitioner, took part in the study. DESIGN: A qualitative study using a grounded theory approach to thematically analyse focus group interviews. RESULTS: These clinicians had limited access to diagnostic tests for patients with ARTI, and very little knowledge of CRP POCT. Three major themes were identified and included the potential clinical role of CRP POCT, concerns related to implementing CRP POCT and evidence needed prior to wider adoption in family medicine. Clinicians believed CRP POCT could support decision-making for some presentations of ARTIs and patient populations when used in conjunction with clinical criteria. Clinicians had concerns about possible overuse and inaccuracy of CRP POCT which they believed might increase antibiotic prescribing rates. Other concerns identified included integration of the test with clinic workflows and cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians stand at the forefront of antibiotic stewardship efforts, but have few diagnostic tests to help them confidently manage ARTIs. CRP POCT may facilitate some aspects of clinical practice. Incorporating CRP POCT with clinical guidelines may strengthen utility of this test, when there is diagnostic uncertainty.

Shared Mycobacterium avium genotypes observed among unlinked clinical and environmental isolates.

Our understanding of the sources of Mycobacterium avium infection is partially based on genotypic matching of pathogen isolates from cases and environmental sources. These approaches assume that genotypic identity is rare in isolates from unlinked cases or sources. To test this assumption, a high-resolution PCR-based genotyping approach, large-sequence polymorphism (LSP)-mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable-number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR), was selected and used to analyze clinical and environmental isolates of M. avium from geographically diverse sources. Among 127 clinical isolates from seven locations in North America, South America, and Europe, 42 genotypes were observed. Among 12 of these genotypes, matches were seen in isolates from apparently unlinked patients in two or more geographic locations. Six of the 12 were also observed in environmental isolates. A subset of these isolates was further analyzed by alternative strain genotyping methods, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and MIRU-VNTR, which confirmed the existence of geographically dispersed strain genotypes. These results suggest that caution should be exercised in interpreting high-resolution genotypic matches as evidence for an acquisition event.

Environment or host?: A case-control study of risk factors for Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease.

RATIONALE: Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease is an increasingly common and chronically debilitating problem. Several host traits have been suggested or confirmed as risk factors. Potential environmental and behavioral risk factors have also been proposed. Few have been evaluated in comparative studies. OBJECTIVES: To determine if aerosol-generating activities in the home and garden, features of the home water supply, or several pulmonary and immune-compromising conditions are associated with Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease. METHODS: Cases were recruited from academic medical centers and by informal referrals from nonuniversity practices in Washington and Oregon. Control subjects were recruited by random-digit dialing and matched to cases by age, sex, and partial telephone number. Associations were measured as odds ratios (OR) estimated using conditional logistic regression. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Known and potential risk factors were measured by in-home interview. Fifty-two matched pairs were studied. Six of 12 examined host traits were associated with disease, including history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR, 10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-80), pneumonia hospitalization (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.1-11), and steroid use (OR, 8; 95% CI, 1.6-41). In contrast, 11 of the 14 aerosol-generating activities and all five features of home water supply studied bore little or no association with disease. CONCLUSIONS: Aerosol-generating activities seem not to be risk factors for Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease in HIV-negative adults, but prior lung disease and immune-suppressing drugs seem to be associated with susceptibility.