Integrative taxonomy of the Changeable Hawk-Eagle Nisaetus cirrhatus complex (Accipitriformes: Accipitridae) in India.

The Changeable Hawk-Eagle Nisaetus cirrhatus complex is represented by two taxa in mainland India: N. c. cirrhatus in the northern plains and peninsula and N. c. limnaeetus in the Himalayan foothills. Traditionally these taxa have been regarded as subspecies of one species, but recently they have been proposed to be different species. Here, we use an integrative taxonomic approach based on considerations of plumage, biometrics, genetics and vocalizations. Several plumage characters are significantly different between the two taxa, but crest length was the only one of 56 characters that was diagnostically different, with no overlap. About 30% of the birds had intermediate crest lengths, suggesting that they are hybrids or backcrosses, as also supported by the microsatellite results. PCAs of adult plumage show many intermediate individuals, irrespective of whether these birds were collected near a putative contact zone. There is restricted gene flow between the two taxa, presumably as a result of their largely allopatric distributions. On current knowledge, reproductive isolation appears to be weak at best, and we therefore recommend continuing to regard limnaeetus and cirrhatus as conspecific.

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon.

Water discharge affects Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolt production: a 27 year study in the River Orkla, Norway.

A model that explains 48% of the annual variation in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolt production in the River Orkla, Norway, has been established. This variation could be explained by egg deposition, minimum daily discharge during the previous winter and minimum weekly discharge during the summer 3 years before smolt migration. All coefficients in the model were positive, which indicates that more eggs and higher minimum discharge levels during the winter before smolt migration and the summer after hatching benefit smolt production. Hence, when the spawning target of the river is reached, the minimum levels of river discharge, in both winter and summer, are the main bottlenecks for the parr survival, and hence for smolt production. The River Orkla was developed for hydropower production in the early 1980s by the construction of four reservoirs upstream of the river stretch accessible to S. salar. Although no water has been removed from the catchment, the dynamics of water flow has been altered, mainly by increasing discharges during winter and reducing spring floods. In spite of the higher than natural winter discharges, minimum winter discharge is still a determinant of smolt production. Hence, in regulated rivers, the maintenance of discharges to ensure that they are as high as possible during dry periods is an important means of securing high S. salar smolt production.

A concept for improving Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolt migration past hydro power intakes.

In this study, cost effective (in terms of reducing loss of power production) measures for increasing bypass migration of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar were developed and tested by establishing statistical models for timing of smolt migration and favourable diversion of water to the bypass. Initial tracking of radio-tagged smolts showed very low bypass migration under normal hydropower operations. Bypass migration increased when bypass discharge was experimentally increased and a model was developed that described relationships between total river discharge, bypass diversion and smolt migration route. Further improvements were obtained by installing two strobe lights at the power-production tunnel entrance that increased bypass migration during the night, but not during daytime. According to the behaviour of radio-tagged fish, the implemented measures contributed to increasing the annual percentage of bypass migration from 11 to 64%, and according to model predictions to 60-74% when the hydropower facilities were operated according to the developed models. To ensure correct timing of discharge diversion a smolt migration model was developed based on environmental variables that could successfully predict the general pattern of migration timing. The concept presented for improving smolt migration past hydropower intakes should be applicable in many systems where migration past hydropower installations cannot easily be solved by screening systems.

The beta-binomial model for host specificity among organisms in trophic interactions.

In this paper, we present a new stochastic model where the host specificity among organisms in trophic interactions in a community, say parasite-host interactions, is estimated by a beta-binomial model. The expected proportion of the host species in a community that a given parasite species is utilizing is modeled as a realization from an inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the rate of this process is assumed to be proportional to a beta probability distribution. The observed number of host species utilized by the parasites is then binomially distributed with the number of trials equaling the number of different host species in the sample. When the degree of polyphagy is estimated by the parameters of the beta-binomial model, quantities like community host specificity and the expected total number of parasite species that will utilize the host species in the community can be predicted as functions of the number of host species available. The predictions can then be applied in analysis of, e.g., symbiotic interactions among organisms, local species richness, and community structure.