Pre-treatment re-bleeding following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: A systematic review of published prediction models with risk of bias and clinical applicability assessment.

BACKGROUND: Pre-treatment rebleeding following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) increases the risk of death and a poor neurological outcome. Current guidelines recommend aneurysm treatment "as early as feasible after presentation, preferably within 24 h of onset" to mitigate this risk, a practice termed ultra-early treatment. However, ongoing debate regarding whether ultra-early treatment is independently associated with reduced re-bleeding risk, together with the recognition that re-bleeding occurs even in centres practicing ultra-early treatment due to the presence of other risk-factors has resulted in a renewed need for patient-specific re-bleed risk prediction. Here, we systematically review models which seek to provide patient specific predictions of pre-treatment rebleeding risk. METHODS: Following registration on the International prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO) CRD 42023421235; Ovid Medline (Pubmed), Embase and Googlescholar were searched for English language studies between 1st May 2002 and 1st June 2023 describing pre-treatment rebleed prediction models following aSAH in adults ≥18 years. Of 763 unique records, 17 full texts were scrutinised with 5 publications describing 4 models reviewed. We used the semi-automated template of Fernandez-Felix et al. incorporating the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist and the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) for data extraction, risk of bias and clinical applicability assessment. To further standardize risk of bias and clinical applicability assessment, we also used the published explanatory notes for the PROBAST tool and compared the aneurysm treatment practices each prediction model's formulation cohort experienced to a prespecified benchmark representative of contemporary aneurysm treatment practices as outlined in recent evidence-based guidelines and published practice pattern reports from four developed countries. RESULTS: Reported model discriminative performance varied between 0.77 and 0.939, however, no single model demonstrated a consistently low risk of bias and low concern for clinical applicability in all domains. Only the score of Darkwah Oppong et al. was formulated using a patient cohort in which the majority of patients were managed in accordance with contemporary, evidence-based aneurysm treatment practices defined by ultra-early and predominantly endovascular treatment. However, this model did not undergo calibration or clinical utility analysis and when applied to an external cohort, its discriminative performance was substantially lower that reported at formulation. CONCLUSIONS: No existing prediction model can be recommended for clinical use in centers practicing contemporary, evidence-based aneurysm treatment. There is a pressing need for improved prediction models to estimate and minimize pre-treatment re-bleeding risk.

Rebleeding following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage before 'endovascular first' treatment: a retrospective case-control study of published scoring systems.

BACKGROUND: Pre-treatment re-bleeding following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) affects up to 7.2% of patients even with ultra-early treatment within 24 hours. We retrospectively compared the utility of three published re-bleed prediction models and individual predictors between cases who re-bled matched to controls using size and parent vessel location from a cohort of patients treated in an ultra-early, 'endovascular first' manner. METHODS: On retrospective analysis of our 9-year cohort of 707 patients suffering 710 episodes of aSAH, there were 53 episodes of pre-treatment re-bleeding (7.5%). Forty-seven cases who had a single culprit aneurysm were matched to 141 controls. Demographic, clinical and radiological data were extracted and predictive scores calculated. Univariate, multivariate, area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROCC) and Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve analyses were performed. RESULTS: The majority of patients (84%) were treated using endovascular techniques at a median 14.5 hours post-diagnosis. On AUROCC analysis the score of Liu et al. had minimal utility (C-statistic 0.553, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.463 to 0.643) while the risk score of Oppong et al. (C-statistic 0.645 95% CI 0.558 to 0.732) and the ARISE-extended score of van Lieshout et al. (C-statistic 0.53 95% CI 0.562 to 0.744) had moderate utility. On multivariate modeling, the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade was the most parsimonious predictor of re-bleeding (C-statistic 0.740, 95% CI 0.664 to 0.816). CONCLUSIONS: For aSAH patients treated in an ultra-early timeframe matched on size and parent vessel location, WFNS grade was superior to three published models for re-bleed prediction. Future re-bleed prediction models should incorporate the WFNS grade.

Modulation of saccades in humans by electrical stimulation of the posterior subthalamic area.

OBJECTIVE: Posterior subthalamic area (PSA) deep brain stimulation (DBS) targeting the zona incerta (ZI) is an emerging treatment for tremor syndromes, including Parkinson's disease (PD) and essential tremor (ET). Evidence from animal studies has indicated that the ZI may play a role in saccadic eye movements via pathways between the ZI and superior colliculus (incerto-collicular pathways). PSA DBS permitted testing this hypothesis in humans. METHODS: Sixteen patients (12 with PD and 4 with ET) underwent DBS using the MRI-directed implantable guide tube technique. Active electrode positions were confirmed at the caudal ZI. Eye movements were tested using direct current electrooculography (EOG) in the medicated state pre- and postoperatively on a horizontal predictive task subtending 30°. Postoperative assessments consisted of stimulation-off, constituting a microlesion (ML) condition, and high-frequency stimulation (HFS; frequency = 130 Hz) up to 3 V. RESULTS: With PSA HFS, the first saccade amplitude was significantly reduced by 10.4% (95% CI 8.68%-12.2%) and 12.6% (95% CI 10.0%-15.9%) in the PD and ET groups, respectively. With HFS, peak velocity was reduced by 14.7% (95% CI 11.7%-17.6%) in the PD group and 27.7% (95% CI 23.7%-31.7%) in the ET group. HFS led to PD patients performing 21% (95% CI 16%-26%) and ET patients 31% (95% CI 19%-38%) more saccadic steps to reach the target. CONCLUSIONS: PSA DBS in patients with PD and ET leads to hypometric, slowed saccades with an increase in the number of steps taken to reach the target. These effects contrast with the saccadometric findings observed with subthalamic nucleus DBS. Given the location of the active contacts, incerto-collicular pathways are likely responsible. Whether the acute finding of saccadic impairment persists with chronic PSA stimulation is unknown.