RMST-based multiple contrast tests in general factorial designs.

Several methods in survival analysis are based on the proportional hazards assumption. However, this assumption is very restrictive and often not justifiable in practice. Therefore, effect estimands that do not rely on the proportional hazards assumption are highly desirable in practical applications. One popular example for this is the restricted mean survival time (RMST). It is defined as the area under the survival curve up to a prespecified time point and, thus, summarizes the survival curve into a meaningful estimand. For two-sample comparisons based on the RMST, previous research found the inflation of the type I error of the asymptotic test for small samples and, therefore, a two-sample permutation test has already been developed. The first goal of the present paper is to further extend the permutation test for general factorial designs and general contrast hypotheses by considering a Wald-type test statistic and its asymptotic behavior. Additionally, a groupwise bootstrap approach is considered. Moreover, when a global test detects a significant difference by comparing the RMSTs of more than two groups, it is of interest which specific RMST differences cause the result. However, global tests do not provide this information. Therefore, multiple tests for the RMST are developed in a second step to infer several null hypotheses simultaneously. Hereby, the asymptotically exact dependence structure between the local test statistics is incorporated to gain more power. Finally, the small sample performance of the proposed global and multiple testing procedures is analyzed in simulations and illustrated in a real data example.

Factorial survival analysis for treatment effects under dependent censoring.

Factorial analyses offer a powerful nonparametric means to detect main or interaction effects among multiple treatments. For survival outcomes, for example, from clinical trials, such techniques can be adopted for comparing reasonable quantifications of treatment effects. The key difficulty to solve in survival analysis concerns the proper handling of censoring. So far, all existing factorial analyses for survival data have been developed under the independent censoring assumption, which is too strong for many applications. As a solution, the central aim of this article is to develop new methods for factorial survival analyses under quite general dependent censoring regimes. This will be accomplished by combining existing nonparametric methods for factorial survival analyses with techniques developed for survival copula models. As a result, we will present an appealing F-test that exhibits sound performance in our simulation study. The new methods are illustrated in a real data analysis. We implement the proposed method in an R function surv.factorial(.) in the R package compound.Cox.

AML consolidation therapy: timing matters.

PURPOSE: Infections due to severe neutropenia are the most common therapy-associated causes of mortality in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). New strategies to lessen the severity and duration of neutropenia are needed. METHODS: Cytarabine is commonly used for AML consolidation therapy; we compared high- and intermediate-dose cytarabine administration on days 1, 2, and 3 (AC-123) versus days 1, 3, and 5 (AC-135) in consolidation therapy of AML. Recently, clinical trials demonstrated that high-dose AC-123 resulted in a shortened white blood cell (WBC) recovery time compared with high-dose AC-135. Our main hypothesis is that this is also the case for different cytarabine dosage, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) administration, and cycle lengths. We analyzed 334 treatment schedules on virtual cohorts of digital twins. RESULTS: Comparison of 32,565 simulated consolidation cycles resulted in a reduction in the WBC recovery time for AC-123 in 99.6% of the considered cycles (median reduction 3.5 days) without an increase in the number of leukemic blasts (lower value in 94.2% of all cycles), compared to AC-135. CONCLUSION: Our numerical study supports the use of AC-123 plus G-CSF as standard conventional AML consolidation therapy to reduce the risk for life-threatening infectious complications.

Studentized permutation method for comparing two restricted mean survival times with small sample from randomized trials.

Recent observations, especially in cancer immunotherapy clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes, show that the commonly used proportional hazard assumption is often not justifiable, hampering an appropriate analysis of the data by hazard ratios. An attractive alternative advocated is given by the restricted mean survival time (RMST), which does not rely on any model assumption and can always be interpreted intuitively. Since methods for the RMST based on asymptotic theory suffer from inflated type-I error under small sample sizes, a permutation test was proposed recently leading to more convincing results in simulations. However, classical permutation strategies require an exchangeable data setup between comparison groups which may be limiting in practice. Besides, it is not possible to invert related testing procedures to obtain valid confidence intervals, which can provide more in-depth information. In this paper, we address these limitations by proposing a studentized permutation test as well as respective permutation-based confidence intervals. In an extensive simulation study, we demonstrate the advantage of our new method, especially in situations with relatively small sample sizes and unbalanced groups. Finally, we illustrate the application of the proposed method by re-analyzing data from a recent lung cancer clinical trial.

A comparative study to alternatives to the log-rank test.

BACKGROUND: Studies to compare the survival of two or more groups using time-to-event data are of high importance in medical research. The gold standard is the log-rank test, which is optimal under proportional hazards. As the latter is no simple regularity assumption, we are interested in evaluating the power of various statistical tests under different settings including proportional and non-proportional hazards with a special emphasis on crossing hazards. This challenge has been going on for many years now and multiple methods have already been investigated in extensive simulation studies. However, in recent years new omnibus tests and methods based on the restricted mean survival time appeared that have been strongly recommended in biometric literature. METHODS: Thus, to give updated recommendations, we perform a vast simulation study to compare tests that showed high power in previous studies with these more recent approaches. We thereby analyze various simulation settings with varying survival and censoring distributions, unequal censoring between groups, small sample sizes and unbalanced group sizes. RESULTS: Overall, omnibus tests are more robust in terms of power against deviations from the proportional hazards assumption. CONCLUSION: We recommend considering the more robust omnibus approaches for group comparison in case of uncertainty about the underlying survival time distributions.

CASANOVA: Permutation inference in factorial survival designs.

We propose inference procedures for general factorial designs with time-to-event endpoints. Similar to additive Aalen models, null hypotheses are formulated in terms of cumulative hazards. Deviations are measured in terms of quadratic forms in Nelson-Aalen-type integrals. Different from existing approaches, this allows to work without restrictive model assumptions as proportional hazards. In particular, crossing survival or hazard curves can be detected without a significant loss of power. For a distribution-free application of the method, a permutation strategy is suggested. The resulting procedures' asymptotic validity is proven and small sample performances are analyzed in extensive simulations. The analysis of a data set on asthma illustrates the applicability.

Biomarker-driven therapies for metastatic uveal melanoma: A prospective precision oncology feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Targeted therapies for metastatic uveal melanoma have shown limited benefit in biomarker-unselected populations. The Treat20 Plus study prospectively evaluated the feasibility of a precision oncology strategy in routine clinical practice. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fresh biopsies were analyzed by high-throughput genomics (whole-genome, whole-exome, and RNA sequencing). A multidisciplinary molecular and immunologic tumor board (MiTB) made individualized treatment recommendations based on identified molecular aberrations, patient situation, drug, and clinical trial availability. Therapy selection was at the discretion of the treating physician. The primary endpoint was the feasibility of the precision oncology clinical program. RESULTS: Molecular analyses were available for 39/45 patients (87%). The MiTB provided treatment recommendations for 40/45 patients (89%), of whom 27/45 (60%) received ≥1 matched therapy. First-line matched therapies included MEK inhibitors (n = 15), MET inhibitors (n = 10), sorafenib (n = 1), and nivolumab (n = 1). The best response to first-line matched therapy was partial response in one patient (nivolumab based on tumor mutational burden), mixed response in two patients, and stable disease in 12 patients for a clinical benefit of 56%. The matched therapy population had a median progression-free survival and overall survival of 3.3 and 13.9 months, respectively. The growth modulation index with matched therapy was >1.33 in 6/17 patients (35%) with prior systemic therapy, suggesting clinical benefit. CONCLUSIONS: A precision oncology approach was feasible for patients with metastatic uveal melanoma, with 60% receiving a therapy matched to identify molecular aberrations. The clinical benefit after checkpoint inhibitors highlights the value of tumor mutational burden testing.

Which test for crossing survival curves? A user's guideline.

BACKGROUND: The exchange of knowledge between statisticians developing new methodology and clinicians, reviewers or authors applying them is fundamental. This is specifically true for clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints. Thereby, one of the most commonly arising questions is that of equal survival distributions in two-armed trial. The log-rank test is still the gold-standard to infer this question. However, in case of non-proportional hazards, its power can become poor and multiple extensions have been developed to overcome this issue. We aim to facilitate the choice of a test for the detection of survival differences in the case of crossing hazards. METHODS: We restricted the review to the most recent two-armed clinical oncology trials with crossing survival curves. Each data set was reconstructed using a state-of-the-art reconstruction algorithm. To ensure reproduction quality, only publications with published number at risk at multiple time points, sufficient printing quality and a non-informative censoring pattern were included. This article depicts the p-values of the log-rank and Peto-Peto test as references and compares them with nine different tests developed for detection of survival differences in the presence of non-proportional or crossing hazards. RESULTS: We reviewed 1400 recent phase III clinical oncology trials and selected fifteen studies that met our eligibility criteria for data reconstruction. After including further three individual patient data sets, for nine out of eighteen studies significant differences in survival were found using the investigated tests. An important point that reviewers should pay attention to is that 28% of the studies with published survival curves did not report the number at risk. This makes reconstruction and plausibility checks almost impossible. CONCLUSIONS: The evaluation shows that inference methods constructed to detect differences in survival in presence of non-proportional hazards are beneficial and help to provide guidance in choosing a sensible alternative to the standard log-rank test.

Long-Term Efficacy and Impact on Mortality of Remote Magnetic Navigation Guided Catheter Ablation of Ventricular Arrhythmias.

Remote magnetic navigation (RMN) facilitates ventricular arrhythmia (VA) ablation. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term efficacy of RMN-guided ablation for ventricular tachycardia (VT) and premature ventricular contractions (PVC). A total of 176 consecutive patients (mean age 53.23 ± 17.55 years, 37% female) underwent VA ablation for PVC (132 patients, 75%) or VT (44 patients, 25%). The cohort consisted of 119 patients (68%) with idiopathic VA, 31 (18%) with ischemic (ICM), and 26 (15%) with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). VA recurrence was observed in 69 patients (39%, mean age 51.71 ± 19.91 years, 23% female) during a follow-up period of 5.48 years (first quartile 770.50 days, second quartile 1101.50 days, third quartile 1615.50 days). Left ventricular ejection fraction <40% lead to a significantly increased risk for VA (p = 0.031*). Multivariate analyses found DCM to be an independent predictor (IP) for VA recurrence (p < 0.001*, hazard ratio (HR) 3.74, confidence interval (CI) 1.58-8.88). ICM resulted in a lower increase in VA recurrence (p = 0.221, HR 1.49, CI 0.79-2.81). Class I/III/IV antiarrhythmic drug therapy (AADs) was also identified as IP for recurrence (p = 0.030*, HR 2.48, CI 1.11-5.68). A total of 16 patients (9%) died within the observational period. RMN-guided ablation of VA lead to acceptable long-term results. An impaired LV function, DCM, and AADs were associated with a significant risk for VA recurrence. Personalized paths are needed to improve efficacy and outcome.

Increased Serum Neurofilament Light and Thin Ganglion Cell-Inner Plexiform Layer Are Additive Risk Factors for Disease Activity in Early Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of combined serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) and retinal optical coherence tomography (OCT) measurements with future disease activity in patients with early multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We analyzed sNfL by single molecule array technology and performed OCT measurements in a prospective cohort of 78 patients with clinically isolated syndrome and early relapsing-remitting MS with a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 23.9 (23.3-24.7) months. Patients were grouped into those with abnormal or normal sNfL levels, defined as sNfL ≥/<80th percentile of age-corrected reference values. Likewise, patients were grouped by a median split into those with thin or thick ganglion cell and inner plexiform layer (GCIP), peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer, and inner nuclear layer in nonoptic neuritis eyes. Outcome parameters were violation of no evidence of disease activity (NEDA-3) criteria or its components. RESULTS: Patients with abnormal baseline sNfL had a higher risk of violating NEDA-3 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.28, 95% CI 1.27-4.09, p = 0.006) and developing a new brain lesion (HR 2.47, 95% CI 1.30-4.69, p = 0.006), but not for a new relapse (HR 2.21, 95% CI 0.97-5.03, p = 0.058). Patients with both abnormal sNfL and thin GCIP had an even higher risk for NEDA-3 violation (HR 3.61, 95% CI 1.77-7.36, p = 4.2e-4), new brain lesion (HR 3.19, 95% CI 1.51-6.76, p = 0.002), and new relapse (HR 5.38, 95% CI 1.61-17.98, p = 0.006) than patients with abnormal sNfL alone. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with early MS, the presence of both abnormal sNfL and thin GCIP is a stronger risk factor for future disease activity than the presence of each parameter alone.

Inferring median survival differences in general factorial designs via permutation tests.

Factorial survival designs with right-censored observations are commonly inferred by Cox regression and explained by means of hazard ratios. However, in case of non-proportional hazards, their interpretation can become cumbersome; especially for clinicians. We therefore offer an alternative: median survival times are used to estimate treatment and interaction effects and null hypotheses are formulated in contrasts of their population versions. Permutation-based tests and confidence regions are proposed and shown to be asymptotically valid. Their type-1 error control and power behavior are investigated in extensive simulations, showing the new methods' wide applicability. The latter is complemented by an illustrative data analysis.

A resampling-based test for two crossing survival curves.

The area between two survival curves is an intuitive test statistic for the classical two-sample testing problem. We propose a bootstrap version of it for assessing the overall homogeneity of these curves. Our approach allows ties in the data as well as independent right censoring, which may differ between the groups. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic as well as of its bootstrap counterpart are derived under the null hypothesis, and their consistency is proven for general alternatives. We demonstrate the finite sample superiority of the proposed test over some existing methods in a simulation study and illustrate its application by a real-data example.

Bootstrap and permutation rank tests for proportional hazards under right censoring.

We address the testing problem of proportional hazards in the two-sample survival setting allowing right censoring, i.e., we check whether the famous Cox model is underlying. Although there are many test proposals for this problem, only a few papers suggest how to improve the performance for small sample sizes. In this paper, we do exactly this by carrying out our test as a permutation as well as a wild bootstrap test. The asymptotic properties of our test, namely asymptotic exactness under the null and consistency, can be transferred to both resampling versions. Various simulations for small sample sizes reveal an actual improvement of the empirical size and a reasonable power performance when using the resampling versions. Moreover, the resampling tests perform better than the existing tests of Gill and Schumacher and Grambsch and Therneau . The tests' practical applicability is illustrated by discussing real data examples.