Quantum computing for transport network design problems.

Transport network design problem (TNDP) is a well-studied problem for planning and operations of transportation systems. They are widely used to determine links for capacity enhancement, link closures to schedule maintenance, identify new road or transit links and more generally network enhancements under resource constraints. As changes in network capacities result in a redistribution of demand on the network, resulting in changes in the congestion patterns, TNDP is generally modelled as a bi-level problem, which is known to be NP-hard. Meta-heuristic methods, such as Tabu Search Method are relied upon to solve these problems, which have been demonstrated to achieve near optimality in reasonable time. The advent of quantum computing has afforded an opportunity to solve these problems faster. We formulate the TNDP problem as a bi-level problem, with the upper level formulated as a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problem that is solved using quantum annealing on a D-Wave quantum computer. We compare the results with Tabu Search. We find that quantum annealing provides significant computational benefit. The proposed solution has implications for networks across different contexts including communications, traffic, industrial operations, electricity, water, broader supply chains and epidemiology.

Comparing and Contrasting the Impacts of Macro-Level Factors on Crash Duration and Frequency.

Road traffic crashes cause social, economic, physical and emotional losses. They also reduce operating speed and road capacity and increase delays, unreliability, and productivity losses. Previous crash duration research has concentrated on individual crashes, with the contributing elements extracted directly from the incident description and records. As a result, the explanatory variables were more regional, and the effects of broader macro-level factors were not investigated. This is in contrast to crash frequency studies, which normally collect explanatory factors at a macro-level. This study explores the impact of various factors and the consistency of their effects on vehicle crash duration and frequency at a macro-level. Along with the demographic, vehicle utilisation, environmental, and responder variables, street network features such as connectedness, density, and hierarchy were added as covariates. The dataset contains over 95,000 vehicle crash records over 4.5 years in Greater Sydney, Australia. Following a dimension reduction of independent variables, a hazard-based model was estimated for crash duration, and a Negative Binomial model was estimated for frequency. Unobserved heterogeneity was accounted for by latent class models for both duration and frequency. Income, driver experience and exposure are considered to have both positive and negative impacts on duration. Crash duration is shorter in regions with a dense road network, but crash frequency is higher. Highly connected networks, on the other hand, are associated with longer length but lower frequency.

Quantum Fourier transform to estimate drive cycles.

Drive cycles in vehicle systems are important determinants for energy consumption, emissions, and safety. Estimating the frequency of the drive cycle quickly is important for control applications related to fuel efficiency, emission reduction and improving safety. Quantum computing has established the computational efficiency that can be gained. A drive cycle frequency estimation algorithm based on the quantum Fourier transform is exponentially faster than the classical Fourier transform. The algorithm is applied on real world data set. We evaluate the method using a quantum computing simulator, demonstrating remarkable consistency with the results from the classical Fourier transform. Current quantum computers are noisy, a simple method is proposed to mitigate the impact of the noise. The method is evaluated on a 15 qubit IBM-q quantum computer. The proposed method for a noisy quantum computer is still faster than the classical Fourier transform.

A Descriptive Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Road Traffic Incidents in Sydney, Australia.

COVID-19 has had tremendous effects worldwide, resulting in large-scale death and upheaval. An abundance of studies have shown that traffic patterns have changed worldwide as working from home has become dominant, with many facilities, restaurants and retail services being closed due to the lockdown orders. With regards to road safety, there have been several studies on the reduction in fatalities and crash frequencies and increase in crash severity during the lockdown period. However, no scientific evidence has been reported on the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on traffic incident duration, a key metric for crash management. It is also unclear from the existing literature whether the impacts on traffic incidents are consistent across multiple lockdowns. This paper analyses the impact of two different COVID-19 lockdowns in Sydney, Australia, on traffic incident duration and frequency. During the first (31 March-28 April 2020) and second (26 June-31 August 2021) lockdowns, the number of incidents fell by 50% and 60%, respectively, in comparison to the same periods in 2018 and 2019. The proportion of incidents involving towing increased significantly during both lockdowns. The mean duration of crashes increased by 16% during the first lockdown, but the change was less significant during the subsequent lockdown. Crashes involving diversions, emergency services and towing saw an increase in the mean duration by 67%, 16%, and 47%, respectively, during the first lockdown. However, this was not reflected in the 2021 data, with only major crashes seeing a significant increase, i.e., by 58%. There was also a noticeable shift in the location of incidents, with more incidents recorded in suburban areas, away from the central business area. Our findings suggest drastic changes in incident characteristics, and these changes should be considered by policymakers in promoting a safer and more sustainable transportation network in the future.

Crash and disengagement data of autonomous vehicles on public roads in California.

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are being widely tested on public roads in several countries such as the USA, Canada, France, Germany, and Australia. For the transparent deployment of AVs in California, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (CA DMV) commissioned AV manufacturers to draft and publish reports on disengagements and crashes. These reports must be processed before any statistical analysis, which is cumbersome and time-consuming. Our dataset presents the processed disengagement data from 2014 to 2019, crash data till the 10th of March 2020 and supplementary road network and land-use data extracted from OpenStreetMap. Primary data are manually assessed and converted into an easily processed format. Our processed data will be advantageous to the research community and enable accelerated research in this domain. For example, the data can be utilised to discern trends in disengagement, observe the distribution of disengagement causes, and investigate the contributory factors of the crashes. Such investigations can subsequently improve the reporting protocols and make policies and laws for the smooth deployment of this disruptive technology.

Comprehensive safety assessment in mixed fleets with connected and automated vehicles: A crash severity and rate evaluation of conventional vehicles.

Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) technology, although in the development stage, is quickly expanding throughout the vehicle market. However, full market penetration will most likely require considerable planning as key stakeholders, manufacturers, consumers and governing agencies work together to determine optimal deployment strategies. Specifically, road safety is a critical challenge to the widespread deployment and adoption of this disruptive technology. During the transition period fleets will be composed of a combination of CAVs and conventional vehicles, and therefore it is imperative to investigate the repercussions of CAVs on traffic safety at different penetration rates. Since crash severity and frequency in conjunction reflect traffic safety, this study attempts to investigate the effect of CAVs on both crash severity and frequency through a microsimulation modelling exercise. VISSM microsimulation platform is used to simulate a case study of the M1 Geelong Ring Road network (Princes Freeway) in Victoria, Australia. Network performance is evaluated using performance metrics (Total System Travel Time, Delay) and kinematic variables (Speed, acceleration, jerk rate). Surrogate safety measures (time to collision, post encroachment time, etc.) are examined to inspect the safety in the network. The results indicate that the introduction of CAVs does not achieve the expected decrease in crash severity and rates involving manual vehicles, despite the improvement in network performance, given the demand and the set of parameters used in our operational CAV algorithm are intact. Additionally, the study identifies that the safety benefits of CAVs are not proportional to CAV penetration, and full-scale benefits of CAVs can only be achieved at 100 % CAV penetration. Further, considering network efficiency as a performance metric and total crash rate involving conventional vehicles as a safety metric, a Pareto frontier is extracted, for varying CAV operational behaviour. The results presented in this study provide insights into the impacts of CAVs on traffic safety valuable for insurance companies and other industry participants, enabling safety-related services and more enterprising business models.

A simple contagion process describes spreading of traffic jams in urban networks.

The spread of traffic jams in urban networks has long been viewed as a complex spatio-temporal phenomenon that often requires computationally intensive microscopic models for analysis purposes. In this study, we present a framework to describe the dynamics of congestion propagation and dissipation of traffic in cities using a simple contagion process, inspired by those used to model infectious disease spread in a population. We introduce two macroscopic characteristics for network traffic dynamics, namely congestion propagation rate ß and congestion dissipation rate µ. We describe the dynamics of congestion spread using these new parameters embedded within a system of ordinary differential equations, similar to the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. The proposed contagion-based dynamics are verified through an empirical multi-city analysis, and can be used to monitor, predict and control the fraction of congested links in the network over time.

A simple crowdsourced delay-based traffic signal control.

Current transportation management systems rely on physical sensors that use traffic volume and queue-lengths. These physical sensors incur significant capital and maintenance costs. The ubiquity of mobile devices has made possible access to accurate and cheap traffic delay data. However, current traffic signal control algorithms do not accommodate the use of such data. In this paper, we propose a novel parsimonious model to utilize real-time crowdsourced delay data for traffic signal management. We demonstrate the versatility and effectiveness of the data and the proposed model on seven different intersections across three cities and two countries. This signal system provides an opportunity to leapfrog from physical sensors to low-cost, reliable crowdsourced data.

Mobile phone conversation distraction: Understanding differences in impact between simulator and naturalistic driving studies.

A current issue within the driver distraction community centres around different findings regarding the impact of mobile phone conversation on driving found in driving simulators versus instrumented vehicles employed in real-world naturalistic driving studies (NDSs). This paper compares and contrasts the two types of studies and aims to provide reasons for the differences in findings that have been documented. A comprehensive review of literature and consultations with human factors experts highlighted that simulator studies tend to show degradation in driving performance, suggestive of increased crash risk as a result of mobile phone conversation. Whilst NDSs, at times, present data suggesting that mobile phone conversation distraction actually reduces crash risk. This study identifies that these differences may be attributed to behavioural hypotheses associated with driver self-regulation, arousal from cognitive loading, task displacement and gaze concentration - all of which need to be explicitly tested in future driving studies. Metric estimation and application was also revealed to be polarising results and the subsequent assessment of the crash risk. A common metric applied in this domain is the 'Odds Ratio', particularly prevalent in NDSs. This study presents a detailed investigation into the assumptions and application of the Odds Ratio which revealed the potential for over- and under-estimation of the metric depending on the core data and sampling assumptions. Furthermore, this research presents a comparative analysis of select driving simulator studies and an NDS considering only driving behaviour data as a means to consistently compare the findings of both methodologies. The findings from this investigation implores the need for greater consistency in the application of analysis methods and metrics across both simulator and NDSs. Improvements can yield a more robust platform to systematically compare and interpret data across both approaches, ultimately leading to enhanced planning and safety regarding mobile phone use while driving.

A safety assessment of mixed fleets with Connected and Autonomous Vehicles using the Surrogate Safety Assessment Module.

The transportation network can provide additional utility by addressing the safety concerns on roads. On-road fatalities are an unfortunate loss of life and lead to significant costs for society and the economy. Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs), envisaged as operating with idealised safety and cooperation, could be a means of mitigating these costs. This paper intends to provide insights into the safety improvements to be attained by incrementally transitioning the fleet to CAVs. This investigation is done by constructing a calibrated microsimulation environment in Vissim and deploying the custom developed Virdi CAV Control Protocol (VCCP) algorithm for CAV behaviour. The CAV behaviour is implemented using an application programming interface and a dynamic linking library. CAVs are introduced to the environment in 10% increments, and safety performance is assessed using the Surrogate Safety Assessment Module (SSAM). The results of this study show that CAVs at low penetrations result in an increase in conflicts at signalised intersections but a decrease at priority-controlled intersections. The initial 20% penetration of CAVs is accompanied by a +22%, -87%, -62% and +33% change in conflicts at the signalised, priority, roundabout and DDI intersection respectively. CAVs at high penetrations indicate a global reduction in conflicts. A 90% CAV penetration is accompanied by a -48%, -100%, -98% and -81% change in conflicts at the signalised, priority, roundabout and DDI intersection respectively.

Correction: Characterizing multicity urban traffic conditions using crowdsourced data.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212845.].

Characterizing multicity urban traffic conditions using crowdsourced data.

Road traffic congestion continues to manifest and propagate in cities around the world. The recent technological advancements in intelligent traveler information have a strong influence on the route choice behavior of drivers by enabling them to be more flexible in selecting their routes. Measuring traffic congestion in a city, understanding its spatial dispersion, and investigating whether the congestion patterns are stable (temporally, such as on a day-to-day basis) are critical to developing effective traffic management strategies. In this study, with the help of Google Maps API, we gather traffic speed data of 29 cities across the world over a 40-day period. We present generalized congestion and network stability metrics to compare congestion levels between these cities. We find that (a) traffic congestion is related to macroeconomic characteristics such as per capita income and population density of these cities, (b) congestion patterns are mostly stable on a day-to-day basis, and (c) the rate of spatial dispersion of congestion is smaller in congested cities, i.e. the spatial heterogeneity is less sensitive to increase in delays. This study compares the traffic conditions across global cities on a common datum using crowdsourced data which is becoming readily available for research purposes. This information can potentially assist practitioners to tailor macroscopic network congestion and reliability management policies. The comparison of different cities can also lead to benchmarking and standardization of the policies that have been used to date.

Game theoretic model for lane changing: Incorporating conflict risks.

The study employs a Quantal Response Equilibrium framework to model lane changing manoeuvres. Prior game theoretic studies in lane changing have pre-eminently assumed Nash equilibrium solutions with deterministic payoffs for actions. The study method involves developing expected utility models for drivers' merge and give-way decisions. These utility models incorporate explanatory variables representing driver trajectories during a lane changing manoeuvre. The model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood on lane changing data at a freeway on-ramp using the NGSIM dataset. Based on the estimated parameters it was concluded that longer acceleration lanes and reduction of speed limits on on-ramps could help significantly reduce likelihood of conflict. To demonstrate the robustness of the model, predictions of lane changing on an out-of-sample data were found to be reasonably accurate.

Risk of automated driving: Implications on safety acceptability and productivity.

Autonomous Vehicles have captured the imagination of our society and have promised a future of safe and efficient mobility. However, there is a need to understand behaviour and its consequences in the use of autonomous vehicles. Using paradigms of behavioural and experimental economics, we show that risk attitudes play a role in acceptability of autonomous vehicles, productivity in autonomous vehicles and safety under risk of failures of autonomous systems. We found that risk attitudes and age have a significant impact on these. We believe these findings will help provide guidance to insurance agencies, licensing, vehicle design, and policies around automated vehicles.

On the existence of network Macroscopic Safety Diagrams: Theory, simulation and empirical evidence.

Recent studies have proposed using well-defined relationships between network productivity and accumulation-otherwise known as Network or Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (network MFDs)-to model the dynamics of large-scale urban traffic networks. Network MFDs have been used to develop a variety of network-wide traffic control policies to improve a network's operational efficiency. However, the relationship between a network's MFD and its safety performance has not been well explored. This study proposes the existence of a Macroscopic Safety Diagram (MSD) that relates safety performance (e.g., likelihood of a crash occurring or number of vehicle conflicts observed) with the current network state (i.e., average density) in an urban traffic network. We theoretically posit a relationship between a network's MSD and its MFD based on the average maneuver envelop of vehicles traveling within the network. Based on this model, we show that the density associated with maximum crash propensity is always expected to be larger than the density associated with maximum network productivity. This finding suggests that congested states are not only inefficient, but they might also be associated with more crashes, which can be both more unsafe and lead to decreased network reliability. These theoretical results are validated using surrogate safety assessment metrics in microsimulation and limited field empirical data from a small arterial network in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The existence of such MSDs can be used to develop more comprehensive network-wide control policies that can ensure both safe, efficient and reliable network operations.

Red-Light-Running Crashes' Classification, Comparison, and Risk Analysis Based on General Estimates System (GES) Crash Database.

Red-light running (RLR) has been identified as one of the prominent contributing factors involved in signalized intersection crashes. In order to reduce RLR crashes, primarily, a better understanding of RLR behavior and crashes is needed. In this study, three RLR crash types were extracted from the general estimates system (GES), including go-straight (GS) RLR vehicle colliding with go-straight non-RLR vehicle, go-straight RLR vehicle colliding with left-turn (LT) non-RLR vehicle, and left-turn RLR vehicle colliding with go-straight non-RLR vehicle. Then, crash features within each crash type scenario were compared, and risk analyses of GS RLR and LT RLR were also conducted. The results indicated that for the GS RLR driver, the speed limit displayed the highest effects on the percentages of GS RLR collision scenarios. For the LT RLR driver, the number of lanes displayed the highest effects on the percentages of LT RLR collision scenarios. Additionally, the drivers who were older than 50 years, distracted, and had a limited view were more likely to be involved in LT RLR accidents. Furthermore, the speeding drivers were more likely to be involved in GS RLR accidents. These findings could give a comprehensive understanding of RLR crash features and propensities for each RLR crash type.

Application of Fractal theory for crash rate prediction: Insights from random parameters and latent class tobit models.

The repercussions from congestion and accidents on major highways can have significant negative impacts on the economy and environment. It is a primary objective of transport authorities to minimize the likelihood of these phenomena taking place, to improve safety and overall network performance. In this study, we use the Hurst Exponent metric from Fractal Theory, as a congestion indicator for crash-rate modeling. We analyze one month of traffic speed data at several monitor sites along the M4 motorway in Sydney, Australia and assess congestion patterns with the Hurst Exponent of speed (Hspeed). Random Parameters and Latent Class Tobit models were estimated, to examine the effect of congestion on historical crash rates, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using a latent class modeling approach, the motorway sections were probabilistically classified into two segments, based on the presence of entry and exit ramps. This will allow transportation agencies to implement appropriate safety/traffic countermeasures when addressing accident hotspots or inadequately managed sections of motorway.

An experimental study of the Online Information Paradox: Does en-route information improve road network performance?

This study investigates the empirical presence of a theoretical transportation paradox, defined as the "Online Information Paradox" (OIP). The paradox suggests that, for certain road networks, the provision of online information deteriorate travel conditions for all users of that network relative to the situation where no online information is provided to users. The analytical presence of the paradox was derived for a specific network structure by using two equilibrium models, the first being the Expected User Equilibrium (EUE) solution (no information scenario) and the other being the User Equilibrium with Recourse (UER) solution (with information scenario). An incentivised computerised route choice game was designed using the concepts of experimental economics and administered in a controlled laboratory environment to investigate the physical presence of the paradox. Aggregate statistics of path flows and Total System Travel Costs (TSTC) were used to compare the experimental results with the theoretical findings. A total of 12 groups of 12 participants completed the experiment and the OIP and the occurrence of the OIP being significant was observed in 11 of the 12 cases. Though information increased travel costs for users on average, it reduced the volatility of travel costs experienced in the no information scenario indicating that information can achieve a more reliable system. Further replications of similar experiments and more importantly field based identification of the phenomena will force transport professionals to be aware of the emergence of the paradox. In addition, studies such as this emphasise the need for the adoption of adaptive traffic assignment techniques to appropriately model the acquisition of information on a road network.

A preliminary investigation of the relationships between historical crash and naturalistic driving.

This paper describes a project that was undertaken using naturalistic driving data collected via Global Positioning System (GPS) devices to demonstrate a proof-of-concept for proactive safety assessments of crash-prone locations. The main hypothesis for the study is that the segments where drivers have to apply hard braking (higher jerks) more frequently might be the "unsafe" segments with more crashes over a long-term. The linear referencing methodology in ArcMap was used to link the GPS data with roadway characteristic data of US Highway 101 northbound (NB) and southbound (SB) in San Luis Obispo, California. The process used to merge GPS data with quarter-mile freeway segments for traditional crash frequency analysis is also discussed in the paper. A negative binomial regression analyses showed that proportion of high magnitude jerks while decelerating on freeway segments (from the driving data) was significantly related with the long-term crash frequency of those segments. A random parameter negative binomial model with uniformly distributed parameter for ADT and a fixed parameter for jerk provided a statistically significant estimate for quarter-mile segments. The results also indicated that roadway curvature and the presence of auxiliary lane are not significantly related with crash frequency for the highway segments under consideration. The results from this exploration are promising since the data used to derive the explanatory variable(s) can be collected using most off-the-shelf GPS devices, including many smartphones.

Autonomous Vehicles: Disengagements, Accidents and Reaction Times.

Autonomous vehicles are being viewed with scepticism in their ability to improve safety and the driving experience. A critical issue with automated driving at this stage of its development is that it is not yet reliable and safe. When automated driving fails, or is limited, the autonomous mode disengages and the drivers are expected to resume manual driving. For this transition to occur safely, it is imperative that drivers react in an appropriate and timely manner. Recent data released from the California trials provide compelling insights into the current factors influencing disengagements of autonomous mode. Here we show that the number of accidents observed has a significantly high correlation with the autonomous miles travelled. The reaction times to take control of the vehicle in the event of a disengagement was found to have a stable distribution across different companies at 0.83 seconds on average. However, there were differences observed in reaction times based on the type of disengagements, type of roadway and autonomous miles travelled. Lack of trust caused by the exposure to automated disengagements was found to increase the likelihood to take control of the vehicle manually. Further, with increased vehicle miles travelled the reaction times were found to increase, which suggests an increased level of trust with more vehicle miles travelled. We believe that this research would provide insurers, planners, traffic management officials and engineers fundamental insights into trust and reaction times that would help them design and engineer their systems.