Filling the agronomic data gap through a minimum data collection approach.

Context: Agronomic data such as applied inputs, management practices, and crop yields are needed for assessing productivity, nutrient balances, resource use efficiency, as well as other aspects of environmental and economic performance of cropping systems. In many instances, however, these data are only available at a coarse level of aggregation or simply do not exist. Objectives: Here we developed an approach that identifies sites for agronomic data collection for a given crop and country, seeking a balance between minimizing data collection efforts and proper representation of the main crop producing areas. Methods: The developed approach followed a stratified sampling method based on a spatial framework that delineates major climate zones and crop area distribution maps, which guides selection of sampling areas (SA) until half of the national harvested area is covered. We provided proof of concept about the robustness of the approach using three rich databases including data on fertilizer application rates for maize, wheat, and soybean in Argentina, soybean in the USA, and maize in Kenya, which were collected via local experts (Argentina) and field surveys (USA and Kenya). For validation purposes, fertilizer rates per crop and nutrient derived at (sub-) national level following our approach were compared against those derived using all data collected from the whole country. Results: Application of the approach in Argentina, USA, and Kenya resulted in selection of 12, 28, and 10 SAs, respectively. For each SA, three experts or 20 fields were sufficient to give a robust estimate of average fertilizer rates applied by farmers. Average rates at national level derived from our approach compared well with those derived using the whole database ( ± 10 kg N, ± 2 kg P, ± 1 kg S, and ± 5 kg K per ha) requiring less than one third of the observations. Conclusions: The developed minimum crop data collection approach can fill the agronomic data gaps in a cost-effective way for major crop systems both in large- and small-scale systems. Significance: The proposed approach is generic enough to be applied to any crop-country combination to guide collection of key agricultural data at national and subnational levels with modest investment especially for countries that do not currently collect data.

A new Rothamsted long-term field experiment for the twenty-first century: principles and practice.

Agriculture faces potentially competing societal demands to produce food, fiber and fuel while reducing negative environmental impacts and delivering regulating, supporting and cultural ecosystem services. This necessitates a new generation of long-term agricultural field experiments designed to study the behavior of contrasting cropping systems in terms of multiple outcomes. We document the principles and practices of a new long-term experiment of this type at Rothamsted, established at two contrasting sites in 2017 and 2018, and report initial yield data at the crop and system level. The objective of the Large-Scale Rotation Experiment was to establish gradients of system properties and outcomes to improve our fundamental understanding of UK cropping systems. It is composed of four management factors-phased rotations, cultivation (conventional vs reduced tillage), nutrition (additional organic amendment vs standard mineral fertilization) and crop protection (conventional vs smart crop protection). These factors were combined in a balanced design resulting in 24 emergent cropping systems at each site and can be analyzed at the level of the system or component management factors. We observed interactions between management factors and with the environment on crop yields, justifying the systems level, multi-site approach. Reduced tillage resulted in lower wheat yields but the effect varied with rotation, previous-crop and site. Organic amendments significantly increased spring barley yield by 8% on average though the effect again varied with site. The plowed cropping systems tended to produce higher caloric yield overall than systems under reduced tillage. Additional response variables are being monitored to study synergies and trade-offs with outcomes other than yield at the cropping system level. The experiment has been established as a long-term resource for inter-disciplinary research. By documenting the design process, we aim to facilitate the adoption of similar approaches to system-scale agricultural experimentation to inform the transition to more sustainable cropping systems. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-023-00914-8.

Global nitrogen deposition inputs to cropland at national scale from 1961 to 2020.

Nitrogen (N) deposition is a significant nutrient input to cropland and consequently important for the evaluation of N budgets and N use efficiency (NUE) at different scales and over time. However, the spatiotemporal coverage of N deposition measurements is limited globally, whereas modeled N deposition values carry uncertainties. Here, we reviewed existing methods and related data sources for quantifying N deposition inputs to crop production on a national scale. We utilized different data sources to estimate N deposition input to crop production at national scale and compared our estimates with 14 N budget datasets, as well as measured N deposition data from observation networks in 9 countries. We created four datasets of N deposition inputs on cropland during 1961-2020 for 236 countries. These products showed good agreement for the majority of countries and can be used in the modeling and assessment of NUE at national and global scales. One of the datasets is recommended for general use in regional to global N budget and NUE estimates.

Global data on fertilizer use by crop and by country.

Understanding how much inorganic fertilizer (referred to as fertilizer) is applied to different crops at national, regional and global levels is an essential component of fertilizer consumption analysis and demand projection. Good information on fertilizer use by crop (FUBC) is rarely available because it is difficult to collect and time-consuming to process and validate. To fill this gap, a first global FUBC report was published in 1992 for the 1990/1991 period, based on an expert survey conducted jointly by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN, the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) and the International Fertilizer Association (IFA). Since then, similar expert surveys have been carried out and published every two to four years in the main fertilizer-consuming countries. Since 2008 IFA has led these efforts and, to our knowledge, remains the only globally available data set on FUBC. This dataset includes data (in CSV format) from a survey carried out by IFA to represent the 2017-18 period as well as a collation of all historic FUBC data.

Southeast Asia must narrow down the yield gap to continue to be a major rice bowl.

Southeast Asia is a major rice-producing region with a high level of internal consumption and accounting for 40% of global rice exports. Limited land resources, climate change and yield stagnation during recent years have once again raised concerns about the capacity of the region to remain as a large net exporter. Here we use a modelling approach to map rice yield gaps and assess production potential and net exports by 2040. We find that the average yield gap represents 48% of the yield potential estimate for the region, but there are substantial differences among countries. Exploitable yield gaps are relatively large in Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines and Thailand but comparably smaller in Indonesia and Vietnam. Continuation of current yield trends will not allow Indonesia and Philippines to meet their domestic rice demand. In contrast, closing the exploitable yield gap by half would drastically reduce the need for rice imports with an aggregated annual rice surplus of 54 million tons available for export. Our study provides insights for increasing regional production on existing cropland by narrowing existing yield gaps.

Steady agronomic and genetic interventions are essential for sustaining productivity in intensive rice cropping.

Intensive systems with two or three rice (Oryza sativa L.) crops per year account for about 50% of the harvested area for irrigated rice in Asia. Any reduction in productivity or sustainability of these systems has serious implications for global food security. Rice yield trends in the world's longest-running long-term continuous cropping experiment (LTCCE) were evaluated to investigate consequences of intensive cropping and to draw lessons for sustaining production in Asia. Annual production was sustained at a steady level over the 50-y period in the LTCCE through continuous adjustment of management practices and regular cultivar replacement. Within each of the three annual cropping seasons (dry, early wet, and late wet), yield decline was observed during the first phase, from 1968 to 1990. Agronomic improvements in 1991 to 1995 helped to reverse this yield decline, but yield increases did not continue thereafter from 1996 to 2017. Regular genetic and agronomic improvements were sufficient to maintain yields at steady levels in dry and early wet seasons despite a reduction in the yield potential due to changing climate. Yield declines resumed in the late wet season. Slower growth in genetic gain after the first 20 y was associated with slower breeding cycle advancement as indicated by pedigree depth. Our findings demonstrate that through adjustment of management practices and regular cultivar replacement, it is possible to sustain a high level of annual production in irrigated systems under a changing climate. However, the system was unable to achieve further increases in yield required to keep pace with the growing global rice demand.

Co-benefits of nutrient management tailored to smallholder agriculture.

Plant nutrition plays a central role in the global challenges to produce sufficient and nutritious food, lessen rural poverty, and reducing the environmental footprint of farming. Site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) provides field-specific solutions for smallholder farmers, potentially creating co-benefits of increased productivity and sustainability. Here we perform the first meta-analysis comparing SSNM with farmers' fertilizer practice for maize, rice and wheat using 61 published papers across 11 countries. Relative to the farmer practice, across all crops SSNM increased grain yield by 12% and profitability by 15% with 10% less fertilizer nitrogen applied, thereby improving nitrogen use efficiency and reducing nitrogen pollution to the environment. Delivering it to millions of smallholder farmers requires use of digital decision support tools, but also policy incentives, links with financial and input supply services, and enhancing public-private partnerships.

African soil properties and nutrients mapped at 30 m spatial resolution using two-scale ensemble machine learning.

Soil property and class maps for the continent of Africa were so far only available at very generalised scales, with many countries not mapped at all. Thanks to an increasing quantity and availability of soil samples collected at field point locations by various government and/or NGO funded projects, it is now possible to produce detailed pan-African maps of soil nutrients, including micro-nutrients at fine spatial resolutions. In this paper we describe production of a 30 m resolution Soil Information System of the African continent using, to date, the most comprehensive compilation of soil samples ([Formula: see text]) and Earth Observation data. We produced predictions for soil pH, organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N), total carbon, effective Cation Exchange Capacity (eCEC), extractable-phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sulfur (S), sodium (Na), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn)-silt, clay and sand, stone content, bulk density and depth to bedrock, at three depths (0, 20 and 50 cm) and using 2-scale 3D Ensemble Machine Learning framework implemented in the mlr (Machine Learning in R) package. As covariate layers we used 250 m resolution (MODIS, PROBA-V and SM2RAIN products), and 30 m resolution (Sentinel-2, Landsat and DTM derivatives) images. Our fivefold spatial Cross-Validation results showed varying accuracy levels ranging from the best performing soil pH (CCC = 0.900) to more poorly predictable extractable phosphorus (CCC = 0.654) and sulphur (CCC = 0.708) and depth to bedrock. Sentinel-2 bands SWIR (B11, B12), NIR (B09, B8A), Landsat SWIR bands, and vertical depth derived from 30 m resolution DTM, were the overall most important 30 m resolution covariates. Climatic data images-SM2RAIN, bioclimatic variables and MODIS Land Surface Temperature-however, remained as the overall most important variables for predicting soil chemical variables at continental scale. This publicly available 30-m Soil Information System of Africa aims at supporting numerous applications, including soil and fertilizer policies and investments, agronomic advice to close yield gaps, environmental programs, or targeting of nutrition interventions.

The potential for soybean to diversify the production of plant-based protein in the UK.

Soybean (Glycine max) offers an important source of plant-based protein. Currently much of Europe's soybean is imported, but there are strong economic and agronomic arguments for boosting local production. Soybean is grown in central and eastern Europe but is less favoured in the North due to climate. We conducted field trials across three seasons and two sites in the UK to test the viability of early-maturing soybean varieties and used the data from these trials to calibrate and validate the Rothamsted Landscape Model. Once validated, the model was used to predict the probability soybean would mature and the associated yield for 26 sites across the UK based on weather data under current, near-future (2041-60) and far-future (2081-2100) climate. Two representative concentration pathways, a midrange mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) and a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) were also explored. Our analysis revealed that under current climate early maturing varieties will mature in the south of the UK, but the probability of failure increases with latitude. Of the 26 sites considered, only at one did soybean mature for every realisation. Predicted expected yields ranged between 1.39 t ha-1 and 1.95 t ha-1 across sites. Under climate change these varieties are likely to mature as far north as southern Scotland. With greater levels of CO2, yield is predicted to increase by as much as 0.5 t ha-1 at some sites in the far future, but this is tempered by other effects of climate change meaning that for most sites no meaningful increase in yield is expected. We conclude that soybean is likely to be a viable crop in the UK and for similar climates at similar latitudes in Northern Europe in the future but that for yields to be economically attractive for local markets, varieties must be chosen to align with the growing season.

A research vision for food systems in the 2020s: Defying the status quo.

•Research and science should not only inform food and environmental policy but should be adopted and mainstreamed into actions at all levels.•Food systems are faced with grander and interconnected challenges and constraints that bring about new research questions.•Research has a vital role in charting a positive and sustainable direction for global food security, nutrition, and health.•The status quo must be challenged to shape food systems transformation to deliver sustainable, healthier diets.• Global Food Security provides a platform where evidence is shared in an accessible manner for those who need to act on it.

Exploring Future Food Provision Scenarios for China.

Developing sustainable food systems is essential, especially for emerging economies, where food systems are changing rapidly and affect the environment and natural resources. We explored possible future pathways for a sustainable food system in China, using multiple environmental indicators linked to eight of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Forecasts for 2030 in a business as usual scenario (BAU) indicate increases in animal food consumption as well as increased shortages of the land available and the water needed to produce the required food in China. Associated greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen and phosphorus losses could become 10-42% of global emissions in 2010. We developed three main pathways besides BAU [produce more and better food (PMB), consume and waste less food (CWL), and import more food (IMF)] and analyzed their impacts and contributions to achieving one or more of the eight SDGs. Under these scenarios, the demand for land and water and the emissions of GHG and nutrients may decrease by 7-55% compared to BAU, depending on the pathway followed. A combination of PMB and CWL was most effective, while IMF externalizes impacts to countries exporting to China. Modestly increasing feed or food imports in a selective manner could ease the pressure on natural resources. Our modeling framework allows us to analyze the effects of changes in food production-consumption systems in an integrated manner, and the results can be linked to the eight SDGs. Despite formidable technological, social, educational, and structural barriers that need to be overcome, our study indicates that the ambitious targets of China's new agricultural and environmental strategy appear to be achievable.

Agronomic improvements can make future cereal systems in South Asia far more productive and result in a lower environmental footprint.

South Asian countries will have to double their food production by 2050 while using resources more efficiently and minimizing environmental problems. Transformative management approaches and technology solutions will be required in the major grain-producing areas that provide the basis for future food and nutrition security. This study was conducted in four locations representing major food production systems of densely populated regions of South Asia. Novel production-scale research platforms were established to assess and optimize three futuristic cropping systems and management scenarios (S2, S3, S4) in comparison with current management (S1). With best agronomic management practices (BMPs), including conservation agriculture (CA) and cropping system diversification, the productivity of rice- and wheat-based cropping systems of South Asia increased substantially, whereas the global warming potential intensity (GWPi) decreased. Positive economic returns and less use of water, labor, nitrogen, and fossil fuel energy per unit food produced were achieved. In comparison with S1, S4, in which BMPs, CA and crop diversification were implemented in the most integrated manner, achieved 54% higher grain energy yield with a 104% increase in economic returns, 35% lower total water input, and a 43% lower GWPi. Conservation agriculture practices were most suitable for intensifying as well as diversifying wheat-rice rotations, but less so for rice-rice systems. This finding also highlights the need for characterizing areas suitable for CA and subsequent technology targeting. A comprehensive baseline dataset generated in this study will allow the prediction of extending benefits to a larger scale.

Educating and training a workforce for nutrition in a post-2015 world.

Nearly all countries in the world today are burdened with malnutrition, manifesting as undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and/or overweight and obesity. Despite some progress, efforts to alleviate malnutrition are hampered by a shortage in number, skills, and geographic coverage, of a workforce for nutrition. Here, we report the findings of the Castel Gandolfo workshop, a convening of experts from diverse fields in March 2014 to consider how to develop the capacity of a global cadre of nutrition professionals for the post-2015 development era. Workshop participants identified several requirements for developing a workforce for nutrition, including an ability to work as part of a multisectoral team; communication, advocacy, and leadership skills to engage decision makers; and a set of technical skills to address future challenges for nutrition. Other opportunities were highlighted that could immediately contribute to capacity development, including the creation of a consortium to link global North and South universities, online training modules for middle managers, and practical, hands-on experiences for frontline nutrition workers. Institutional and organizational support is needed to enable workshop recommendations on education and training to be effectively implemented and sustained. The findings from the Castel Gandolfo workshop can contribute to the delivery of successful nutrition-relevant actions in the face of mounting external pressures and informing and attaining the forthcoming Sustainable Development Goals.

Exploiting Co-Benefits of Increased Rice Production and Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emission through Optimized Crop and Soil Management.

Meeting the future food security challenge without further sacrificing environmental integrity requires transformative changes in managing the key biophysical determinants of increasing agronomic productivity and reducing the environmental footprint. Here, we focus on Chinese rice production and quantitatively address this concern by conducting 403 on-farm trials across diverse rice farming systems. Inherent soil productivity, management practices and rice farming type resulted in confounded and interactive effects on yield, yield gaps and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (N2O, CH4 and CO2-equivalent) with both trade-offs and compensating effects. Advances in nitrogen, water and crop management (Best Management Practices-BMPs) helped closing existing yield gaps and resulted in a substantial reduction in CO2-equivalent emission of rice farming despite a tradeoff of increase N2O emission. However, inherent soil properties limited rice yields to a larger extent than previously known. Cultivating inherently better soil also led to lower GHG intensity (GHG emissions per unit yield). Neither adopting BMPs only nor improving soils with low or moderate productivity alone can adequately address the challenge of substantially increasing rice production while reducing the environmental footprint. A combination of both represents the most efficient strategy to harness the combined-benefits of enhanced production and mitigating climate change. Extrapolating from our farm data, this strategy could increase rice production in China by 18%, which would meet the demand for direct human consumption of rice by 2030. It would also reduce fertilizer nitrogen consumption by 22% and decrease CO2-equivalent emissions during the rice growing period by 7% compared with current farming practice continues. Benefits vary by rice-based cropping systems. Single rice systems have the largest food provision benefits due to its wider yield gap and total cultivated area, whereas double-rice system (especially late rice) contributes primarily to reducing GHG emissions. The study therefore provides farm-based evidence for feasible, practical approaches towards achieving realistic food security and environmental quality targets at a national scale.

Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures.

Data from farmer-managed fields have not been used previously to disentangle the impacts of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and solar radiation on rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia. We used a multiple regression model to analyze data from 227 intensively managed irrigated rice farms in six important rice-producing countries. The farm-level detail, observed over multiple growing seasons, enabled us to construct farm-specific weather variables, control for unobserved factors that either were unique to each farm but did not vary over time or were common to all farms at a given site but varied by season and year, and obtain more precise estimates by including farm- and site-specific economic variables. Temperature and radiation had statistically significant impacts during both the vegetative and ripening phases of the rice plant. Higher minimum temperature reduced yield, whereas higher maximum temperature raised it; radiation impact varied by growth phase. Combined, these effects imply that yield at most sites would have grown more rapidly during the high-yielding season but less rapidly during the low-yielding season if observed temperature and radiation trends at the end of the 20th century had not occurred, with temperature trends being more influential. Looking ahead, they imply a net negative impact on yield from moderate warming in coming decades. Beyond that, the impact would likely become more negative, because prior research indicates that the impact of maximum temperature becomes negative at higher levels. Diurnal temperature variation must be considered when investigating the impacts of climate change on irrigated rice in Asia.

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption.

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm- or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikey to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption.

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm-or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikely to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.