Stochastic Interventional Vaccine Efficacy and Principal Surrogate Analyses of Antibody Markers as Correlates of Protection against Symptomatic COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 Trial.

The COVE trial randomized participants to receive two doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine or placebo on Days 1 and 29 (D1, D29). Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG binding antibodies (bAbs), anti-receptor binding domain IgG bAbs, 50% inhibitory dilution neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers, and 80% inhibitory dilution nAb titers were measured at D29 and D57. We assessed these markers as correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 using stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis and principal surrogate (PS) analysis, frameworks not used in our previous COVE immune correlates analyses. By SVE analysis, hypothetical shifts of the D57 Spike IgG distribution from a geometric mean concentration (GMC) of 2737 binding antibody units (BAU)/mL (estimated vaccine efficacy (VE): 92.9% (95% CI: 91.7%, 93.9%)) to 274 BAU/mL or to 27,368 BAU/mL resulted in an overall estimated VE of 84.2% (79.0%, 88.1%) and 97.6% (97.4%, 97.7%), respectively. By binary marker PS analysis of Low and High subgroups (cut-point: 2094 BAU/mL), the ignorance interval (IGI) and estimated uncertainty interval (EUI) for VE were [85%, 90%] and (78%, 93%) for Low compared to [95%, 96%] and (92%, 97%) for High. By continuous marker PS analysis, the IGI and 95% EUI for VE at the 2.5th percentile (519.4 BAU/mL) vs. at the 97.5th percentile (9262.9 BAU/mL) of D57 Spike IgG concentration were [92.6%, 93.4%] and (89.2%, 95.7%) vs. [94.3%, 94.6%] and (89.7%, 97.0%). Results were similar for other D29 and D57 markers. Thus, the SVE and PS analyses additionally support all four markers at both time points as CoPs.

Comparing antibody assays as correlates of protection against COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy trial.

The best assay or marker to define mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced antibodies as a correlate of protection (CoP) is unclear. In the COVE trial, participants received two doses of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine or placebo. We previously assessed IgG binding antibodies to the spike protein (spike IgG) or receptor binding domain (RBD IgG) and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody 50 or 80% inhibitory dilution titer measured on day 29 or day 57, as correlates of risk (CoRs) and CoPs against symptomatic COVID-19 over 4 months after dose. Here, we assessed a new marker, live virus 50% microneutralization titer (LV-MN50), and compared and combined markers in multivariable analyses. LV-MN50 was an inverse CoR, with a hazard ratio of 0.39 (95% confidence interval, 0.19 to 0.83) at day 29 and 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.25 to 1.04) at day 57 per 10-fold increase. In multivariable analyses, pseudovirus neutralization titers and anti-spike binding antibodies performed best as CoRs; combining antibody markers did not improve correlates. Pseudovirus neutralization titer was the strongest independent correlate in a multivariable model. Overall, these results supported pseudovirus neutralizing and binding antibody assays as CoRs and CoPs, with the live virus assay as a weaker correlate in this sample set. Day 29 markers performed as well as day 57 markers as CoPs, which could accelerate immunogenicity and immunobridging studies.

Kinetics of the Antibody Response to Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Individuals in the Blinded Phase of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial.

Background: Hybrid immunity is associated with more durable protection against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We describe the antibody responses following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Methods: The 55 vaccine arm COVID-19 cases diagnosed during the blinded phase of the Coronavirus Efficacy trial were matched with 55 placebo arm COVID-19 cases. Pseudovirus neutralizing antibody (nAb) activity to the ancestral strain and binding antibody (bAb) responses to nucleocapsid and spike antigens (ancestral and variants of concern [VOCs]) were assessed on disease day 1 (DD1) and 28 days later (DD29). Results: The primary analysis set was 46 vaccine cases and 49 placebo cases with COVID-19 at least 57 days post-first dose. For vaccine group cases, there was a 1.88-fold rise in ancestral antispike bAbs 1 month post-disease onset, although 47% had no increase. The vaccine-to-placebo geometric mean ratios for DD29 antispike and antinucleocapsid bAbs were 6.9 and 0.04, respectively. DD29 mean bAb levels were higher for vaccine vs placebo cases for all VOCs. DD1 nasal viral load positively correlated with bAb levels in the vaccine group. Conclusions: Following COVID-19, vaccinated participants had higher levels and greater breadth of antispike bAbs and higher nAb titers than unvaccinated participants. These were largely attributable to the primary immunization series.

Immune correlates analysis of a phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine.

In the phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine conducted in the U.S., Chile, and Peru, anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG) and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured four weeks after two doses were assessed as correlates of risk and protection against PCR-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19). These analyses of SARS-CoV-2 negative participants were based on case-cohort sampling of vaccine recipients (33 COVID-19 cases by 4 months post dose two, 463 non-cases). The adjusted hazard ratio of COVID-19 was 0.32 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.76) per 10-fold increase in spike IgG concentration and 0.28 (0.10, 0.77) per 10-fold increase in nAb ID50 titer. At nAb ID50 below the limit of detection (< 2.612 IU50/ml), 10, 100, and 270 IU50/ml, vaccine efficacy was -5.8% (-651%, 75.6%), 64.9% (56.4%, 86.9%), 90.0% (55.8%, 97.6%) and 94.2% (69.4%, 99.1%). These findings provide further evidence towards defining an immune marker correlate of protection to help guide regulatory/approval decisions for COVID-19 vaccines.

Immune correlates analysis of the PREVENT-19 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

In the PREVENT-19 phase 3 trial of the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine (NCT04611802), anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG), anti-RBD binding IgG concentration (RBD IgG), and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured two weeks post-dose two are assessed as correlates of risk and as correlates of protection against COVID-19. Analyses are conducted in the U.S. cohort of baseline SARS-CoV-2 negative per-protocol participants using a case-cohort design that measures the markers from all 12 vaccine recipient breakthrough COVID-19 cases starting 7 days post antibody measurement and from 639 vaccine recipient non-cases. All markers are inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. In vaccine recipients with nAb ID50 titers of 50, 100, and 7230 international units (IU50)/ml, vaccine efficacy estimates are 75.7% (49.8%, 93.2%), 81.7% (66.3%, 93.2%), and 96.8% (88.3%, 99.3%). The results support potential cross-vaccine platform applications of these markers for guiding decisions about vaccine approval and use.

Immune correlates analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

In the coronavirus efficacy (COVE) phase 3 clinical trial, vaccine recipients were assessed for neutralizing and binding antibodies as correlates of risk for COVID-19 disease and as correlates of protection. These immune markers were measured at the time of second vaccination and 4 weeks later, with values reported in standardized World Health Organization international units. All markers were inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. Vaccine recipients with postvaccination 50% neutralization titers 10, 100, and 1000 had estimated vaccine efficacies of 78% (95% confidence interval, 54 to 89%), 91% (87 to 94%), and 96% (94 to 98%), respectively. These results help define immune marker correlates of protection and may guide approval decisions for messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccines and other COVID-19 vaccines.

Crossroads of highly pathogenic H5N1: overlap between wild and domestic birds in the Black Sea-Mediterranean impacts global transmission.

Understanding transmission dynamics that link wild and domestic animals is a key element of predicting the emergence of infectious disease, an event that has highest likelihood of occurring wherever human livelihoods depend on agriculture and animal trade. Contact between poultry and wild birds is a key driver of the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), a process that allows for host switching and accelerated reassortment, diversification, and spread of virus between otherwise unconnected regions. This study addresses questions relevant to the spillover of HPAI at a transmission hotspot: what is the nature of the wild bird-poultry interface in Egypt and adjacent Black Sea-Mediterranean countries and how has this contributed to outbreaks occurring worldwide? Using a spatiotemporal model of infection risk informed by satellite tracking of waterfowl and viral phylogenetics, this study identified ecological conditions that contribute to spillover in this understudied region. Results indicated that multiple ducks (Northern Shoveler and Northern Pintail) hosted segments that shared ancestry with HPAI H5 from both clade 2.2.1 and clade 2.3.4 supporting the role of Anseriformes in linking viral populations in East Asia and Africa over large distances. Quantifying the overlap between wild ducks and H5N1-infected poultry revealed an increasing interface in late winter peaking in early spring when ducks expanded their range before migration, with key differences in the timing of poultry contact risk between local and long-distance migrants.

Immune Correlates Analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial.

BACKGROUND: In the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial, estimated mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) was 94%. SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements were assessed as correlates of COVID-19 risk and as correlates of protection. METHODS: Through case-cohort sampling, participants were selected for measurement of four serum antibody markers at Day 1 (first dose), Day 29 (second dose), and Day 57: IgG binding antibodies (bAbs) to Spike, bAbs to Spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), and 50% and 80% inhibitory dilution pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers calibrated to the WHO International Standard (cID50 and cID80). Participants with no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Cox regression assessed in vaccine recipients the association of each Day 29 or 57 serologic marker with COVID-19 through 126 or 100 days of follow-up, respectively, adjusting for risk factors. RESULTS: Day 57 Spike IgG, RBD IgG, cID50, and cID80 neutralization levels were each inversely correlated with risk of COVID-19: hazard ratios 0.66 (95% CI 0.50, 0.88; p=0.005); 0.57 (0.40, 0.82; p=0.002); 0.42 (0.27, 0.65; p<0.001); 0.35 (0.20, 0.61; p<0.001) per 10-fold increase in marker level, respectively, multiplicity adjusted P-values 0.003-0.010. Results were similar for Day 29 markers (multiplicity adjusted P-values <0.001-0.003). For vaccine recipients with Day 57 reciprocal cID50 neutralization titers that were undetectable (<2.42), 100, or 1000, respectively, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through 100 days post Day 57 was 0.030 (0.010, 0.093), 0.0056 (0.0039, 0.0080), and 0.0023 (0.0013, 0.0036). For vaccine recipients at these titer levels, respectively, vaccine efficacy was 50.8% (-51.2, 83.0%), 90.7% (86.7, 93.6%), and 96.1% (94.0, 97.8%). Causal mediation analysis estimated that the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated through Day 29 cID50 titer was 68.5% (58.5, 78.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Binding and neutralizing antibodies correlated with COVID-19 risk and vaccine efficacy and likely have utility in predicting mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: COVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427.

Adjuvanted recombinant hemagglutinin H7 vaccine to highly pathogenic influenza A(H7N9) elicits high and sustained antibody responses in healthy adults.

An unprecedented number of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) in the fifth epidemic wave during the winter of 2016-2017 in China and their antigenic divergence from the viruses that emerged in 2013 prompted development of updated vaccines for pandemic preparedness. We report on the findings of a clinical study in healthy adults designed to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of three dose levels of recombinant influenza vaccine derived from highly pathogenic A/Guangdong/17SF003/2016 (H7N9) virus adjuvanted with AS03 or MF59 oil-in water emulsions. Most of the six study groups meet the FDA CBER-specified vaccine licensure criterion of 70% seroprotection rate (SPR) for hemagglutination inhibition antibodies to the homologous virus. A substantial proportion of subjects show high cross-reactivity to antigenically distinct heterologous A(H7N9) viruses from the first epidemic wave of 2013. These results provide critical information to develop a pandemic response strategy and support regulatory requirements for vaccination under Emergency Use Authorization.

Improving pandemic preparedness through better, faster influenza vaccines.

Introduction. Timely availability of effective influenza vaccine will be critical to mitigate the next influenza pandemic. The mission of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) is to develop medical countermeasures against pandemics, including influenza and other health security threats.Areas covered. Despite considerable gains in pandemic vaccine preparedness since 2009, old and new challenges threaten the pandemic influenza response capabilities of the U.S. Government: insufficient U.S.-based vaccine production, two-dose vaccination regimen, logistically complex adjuvanted formulation, and sustained surge manufacturing capacity despite no commercial market for pandemic vaccines. Although the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has re-exposed these gaps in preparedness and response, previous investments into flexible influenza vaccine technologies proved to be critical to accelerate COVID-19 vaccine development.Expert opinion. BARDA addresses these challenges by implementing a pandemic influenza vaccine strategy with two key goals: 1) accelerating vaccine development and production (faster) and 2) improving vaccine performance (better). This strategy involves an end-to-end approach, including increasing manufacturing and fill-finish capacity; improving release testing speed; and funding clinical trials to improve current vaccine utilization. As demonstrated by the COVID-19 response, continued investments into this pandemic influenza vaccine strategy will further enhance the ability to respond to future emerging pandemic pathogens.

Biosafety risk assessment for production of candidate vaccine viruses to protect humans from zoonotic highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses.

A major lesson learned from the public health response to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was the need to shorten the vaccine delivery timeline to achieve the best pandemic mitigation results. A gap analysis of previous pre-pandemic vaccine development activities identified possible changes in the Select Agent exclusion process that would maintain safety and shorten the timeline to develop candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) for use in pandemic vaccine manufacture. Here, we review the biosafety characteristics of CVVs developed in the past 15 years to support a shortened preparedness timeline for A(H5) and A(H7) subtype highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) CVVs. Extensive biosafety experimental evidence supported recent changes in the implementation of Select Agent regulations that eliminated the mandatory chicken pathotype testing requirements and expedited distribution of CVVs to shorten pre-pandemic and pandemic vaccine manufacturing by up to 3 weeks.

Mutations in the Neuraminidase-Like Protein of Bat Influenza H18N11 Virus Enhance Virus Replication in Mammalian Cells, Mice, and Ferrets.

To characterize bat influenza H18N11 virus, we propagated a reverse genetics-generated H18N11 virus in Madin-Darby canine kidney subclone II cells and detected two mammal-adapting mutations in the neuraminidase (NA)-like protein (NA-F144C and NA-T342A, N2 numbering) that increased the virus titers in three mammalian cell lines (i.e., Madin-Darby canine kidney, Madin-Darby canine kidney subclone II, and human lung adenocarcinoma [Calu-3] cells). In mice, wild-type H18N11 virus replicated only in the lungs of the infected animals, whereas the NA-T342A and NA-F144C/T342A mutant viruses were detected in the nasal turbinates, in addition to the lungs. Bat influenza viruses have not been tested for their virulence or organ tropism in ferrets. We detected wild-type and single mutant viruses each possessing NA-F144C or NA-T342A in the nasal turbinates of one or several infected ferrets, respectively. A mutant virus possessing both the NA-F144C and NA-T342A mutations was isolated from both the lung and the trachea, suggesting that it has a broader organ tropism than the wild-type virus. However, none of the H18N11 viruses caused symptoms in mice or ferrets. The NA-F144C/T342A double mutation did not substantially affect virion morphology or the release of virions from cells. Collectively, our data demonstrate that the propagation of bat influenza H18N11 virus in mammalian cells can result in mammal-adapting mutations that may increase the replicative ability and/or organ tropism of the virus; overall, however, these viruses did not replicate to high titers throughout the respiratory tract of mice and ferrets.IMPORTANCE Bats are reservoirs for several severe zoonotic pathogens. The genomes of influenza A viruses of the H17N10 and H18N11 subtypes have been identified in bats, but no live virus has been isolated. The characterization of artificially generated bat influenza H18N11 virus in mammalian cell lines and animal models revealed that this virus can acquire mammal-adapting mutations that may increase its zoonotic potential; however, the wild-type and mutant viruses did not replicate to high titers in all infected animals.

Safety and immunogenicity of influenza A(H5N1) vaccine stored up to twelve years in the National Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Stockpile (NPIVS).

BACKGROUND: As part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Pandemic Influenza Plan preparedness and response strategy, the National Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Stockpile (NPIVS) program was established by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) in 2005 with the goal of building and maintaining a stockpile of vaccines for influenza viruses with pandemic potential to vaccinate 20 million people in the critical workforce in the event of a pandemic. The NPIVS program continuously monitors the integrity of influenza vaccine antigens and adjuvants stored within the stockpile. In addition to monitoring physical and chemical properties in stability studies, it is important to regularly assess the safety and immunogenicity of stockpiled vaccines and adjuvants to maintain preparedness for use in the event of an influenza pandemic. METHODS: BARDA conducted a randomized, double-blinded Phase 2 clinical study with the oldest stockpiled influenza A(H5N1) antigen, stored over the previous 10-12 years administered with or without MF59® adjuvant, stored over the previous 2-7 years at the time of vaccination. RESULTS: Stockpiled vaccines were well-tolerated, adverse events were generally mild, and there was no drop in immunogenicity to the oldest stockpiled A(H5N1) vaccine. Compared to unadjuvanted vaccine, greater peak antibody responses were observed in subjects who were vaccinated with MF59-adjuvanted vaccines, regardless of antigen dose. Vaccination with the A(H5N1) vaccine antigen also results in cross-reactive antibody responses to contemporary circulating strains of A(H5) influenza viruses. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency, type, and severity of AEs observed during this study are similar to historical clinical study data with A(H5N1) vaccines and MF59 adjuvant indicating that a stockpiled A(H5N1) vaccine appears to remain safe and tolerable. The vaccines were immunogenic when administered as a two-dose vaccine regimen in healthy adults, despite extended storage of HA antigen or MF59 adjuvant within the NPIVS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02680002.

Cell culture-derived influenza vaccines in the severe 2017-2018 epidemic season: a step towards improved influenza vaccine effectiveness.

The 2017-2018 seasonal influenza epidemics were severe in the US and Australia where the A(H3N2) subtype viruses predominated. Although circulating A(H3N2) viruses did not differ antigenically from that recommended by the WHO for vaccine production, overall interim vaccine effectiveness estimates were below historic averages (33%) for A(H3N2) viruses. The majority (US) or all (Australian) vaccine doses contained multiple amino-acid changes in the hemagglutinin protein, resulting from the necessary adaptation of the virus to embryonated hen's eggs used for most vaccine manufacturing. Previous reports have suggested a potential negative impact of egg-driven substitutions on vaccine performance. With BARDA support, two vaccines licensed in the US are produced in cell culture: recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV, Flublok™) manufactured in insect cells and inactivated mammalian cell-grown vaccine (ccIIV, Flucelvax™). Quadrivalent ccIIV (ccIIV4) vaccine for the 2017-2018 influenza season was produced using an A(H3N2) seed virus propagated exclusively in cell culture and therefore lacking egg adaptative changes. Sufficient ccIIV doses were distributed (but not RIV doses) to enable preliminary estimates of its higher effectiveness relative to the traditional egg-based vaccines, with study details pending. The increased availability of comparative product-specific vaccine effectiveness estimates for cell-based and egg-based vaccines may provide critical clues to inform vaccine product improvements moving forward.

Avian influenza surveillance in domestic waterfowl and environment of live bird markets in Bangladesh, 2007-2012.

Avian influenza viruses, including highly pathogenic strains, pose severe economic, animal and public health concerns. We implemented live bird market surveillance in Bangladesh to identify the subtypes of avian influenza A viruses in domestic waterfowl and market environments. We collected waterfowl samples monthly from 4 rural sites from 2007 to 2012 and environmental samples from 4 rural and 16 urban sites from 2009 to 2012. Samples were tested through real-time RT-PCR, virus culture, and sequencing to detect and characterize avian influenza A viruses. Among 4,308 waterfowl tested, 191 (4.4%) were positive for avian influenza A virus, including 74 (1.9%) avian influenza A/H5 subtype. The majority (99%, n = 73) of the influenza A/H5-positive samples were from healthy appearing waterfowl. Multiple subtypes, including H1N1, H1N3, H3N2, H3N6, H3N8, H4N1, H4N2, H4N6, H5N1 (clades 2.2.2, 2.3.2.1a, 2.3.4.2), H5N2, H6N1, H7N9, H9N2, H11N2 and H11N3, H11N6 were detected in waterfowl and environmental samples. Environmental samples tested positive for influenza A viruses throughout the year. Avian influenza viruses, including H5N1 and H9N2 subtypes were also identified in backyard and small-scale raised poultry. Live bird markets could be high-risk sites for harboring the viruses and have the potential to infect naive birds and humans exposed to them.

Immunocapture isotope dilution mass spectrometry in response to a pandemic influenza threat.

As a result of recent advances in mass spectrometry-based protein quantitation methods, these techniques are now poised to play a critical role in rapid formulation of pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytical techniques that have been developed and validated on seasonal influenza strains can be used to increase the quality and decrease the time required to deliver protective pandemic vaccines to the global population. The emergence of a potentially pandemic avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in March of 2013, prompted the US public health authorities and the vaccine industry to initiate production of a pre-pandemic vaccine for preparedness purposes. To this end, we evaluated the feasibility of using immunocapture isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IC-IDMS) to evaluate the suitability of the underlying monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies (mAbs and pAbs) for their capacity to isolate the H7 hemagglutinin (HA) in this new vaccine for quantification by IDMS. A broad range of H7 capture efficiencies was observed among mAbs tested by IC-IDMS with FR-545, 46/6, and G3 A533 exhibiting the highest cross-reactivity capabilities to H7 of A/Shanghai/2/2013. MAb FR-545 was selected for continued assessment, evaluated by IC-IDMS for mAb reactivity against H7 in the H7N9 candidate vaccine virus and compared with/to reactivity to the reference polyclonal antiserum in allantoic fluid, purified whole virus, lyophilized whole virus and final detergent-split monovalent vaccine preparations for vaccine development. IC-IDMS assessment of FR-545 alongside IC-IDMS using the reference polyclonal antiserum to A/Shanghai/2/2013 and with the regulatory SRID method showed strong correlation and mAb IC-IDMS could have played an important role in the event a potential surrogate potency test was required to be rapidly implemented.