Cost-Utility Analysis of Total Ankle Replacement Compared with Ankle Arthrodesis for Patients Aged 50-85 Years with End-Stage Ankle Osteoarthritis: The TARVA Study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with end-stage ankle osteoarthritis suffer from reduced mobility and quality of life and the main surgical treatments are total ankle replacement (TAR) and ankle fusion (AF). OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to calculate the mean incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of TAR compared with AF in patients with end-stage ankle osteoarthritis, over 52 weeks and over the patients' lifetime. METHOD: We conducted a cost-utility analysis of 282 participants from 17 UK centres recruited to a randomised controlled trial (TARVA). QALYs were calculated using index values from EQ-5D-5L. Resource use information was collected from case report forms and self-completed questionnaires. Primary analysis was within-trial analysis from the National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services (PSS) perspective, while secondary analyses were within-trial analysis from wider perspective and long-term economic modelling. Adjustments were made for baseline resource use and index values. RESULTS: Total cost at 52 weeks was higher in the TAR group compared with the AF group, from the NHS and PSS perspective (mean adjusted difference £2539, 95% confidence interval [CI] £1142, £3897). The difference became very small from the wider perspective (£155, 95% CI -  £1947, £2331). There was no significant difference between TAR and AF in terms of QALYs (mean adjusted difference 0.02, 95% CI -  0.015, 0.05) at 52 weeks post-operation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £131,999 per QALY gained 52 weeks post-operation. Long-term economic modelling resulted in an ICER of £4200 per QALY gained, and there is a 69% probability of TAR being cost effective at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: TAR does not appear to be cost effective over AF 52 weeks post-operation. A decision model suggests that TAR can be cost effective over the patients' lifetime but there is a need for longer-term prospectively collected data. Clinical trial registration ISRCTN60672307 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02128555.

Total ankle replacement versus ankle arthrodesis for patients aged 50-85 years with end-stage ankle osteoarthritis: the TARVA RCT.

Background: We aimed to compare the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and complication rates of total ankle replacement with those of arthrodesis (i.e. ankle fusion) in the treatment of end-stage ankle osteoarthritis. Methods: This was a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group, non-blinded randomised controlled trial. Patients with end-stage ankle osteoarthritis who were aged 50-85 years and were suitable for both procedures were recruited from 17 UK hospitals and randomised using minimisation. The primary outcome was the change in the Manchester-Oxford Foot Questionnaire walking/standing domain scores between the preoperative baseline and 52 weeks post surgery. Results: Between March 2015 and January 2019, 303 participants were randomised using a minimisation algorithm: 152 to total ankle replacement and 151 to ankle fusion. At 52 weeks, the mean (standard deviation) Manchester-Oxford Foot Questionnaire walking/standing domain score was 31.4 (30.4) in the total ankle replacement arm (n = 136) and 36.8 (30.6) in the ankle fusion arm (n = 140); the adjusted difference in the change was -5.6 (95% confidence interval -12.5 to 1.4; p = 0.12) in the intention-to-treat analysis. By week 52, one patient in the total ankle replacement arm required revision. Rates of wound-healing issues (13.4% vs. 5.7%) and nerve injuries (4.2% vs. < 1%) were higher and the rate of thromboembolic events was lower (2.9% vs. 4.9%) in the total ankle replacement arm than in the ankle fusion arm. The bone non-union rate (based on plain radiographs) in the ankle fusion arm was 12.1%, but only 7.1% of patients had symptoms. A post hoc analysis of fixed-bearing total ankle replacement showed a statistically significant improvement over ankle fusion in Manchester-Oxford Foot Questionnaire walking/standing domain score (-11.1, 95% confidence interval -19.3 to -2.9; p = 0.008). We estimate a 69% likelihood that total ankle replacement is cost-effective compared with ankle fusion at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained over the patient's lifetime. Limitations: This initial report contains only 52-week data, which must therefore be interpreted with caution. In addition, the pragmatic nature of the study means that there was heterogeneity between surgical implants and techniques. The trial was run across 17 NHS centres to ensure that decision-making streams reflected the standard of care in the NHS as closely as possible. Conclusions: Both total ankle replacement and ankle fusion improved patients' quality of life at 1 year, and both appear to be safe. When total ankle replacement was compared with ankle fusion overall, we were unable to show a statistically significant difference between the two arms in terms of our primary outcome measure. The total ankle replacement versus ankle arthrodesis (TARVA) trial is inconclusive in terms of superiority of total ankle replacement, as the 95% confidence interval for the adjusted treatment effect includes both a difference of zero and the minimal important difference of 12, but it can rule out the superiority of ankle fusion. A post hoc analysis comparing fixed-bearing total ankle replacement with ankle fusion showed a statistically significant improvement of total ankle replacement over ankle fusion in Manchester-Oxford Foot Questionnaire walking/standing domain score. Total ankle replacement appears to be cost-effective compared with ankle fusion at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained over a patient's lifetime based on long-term economic modelling. Future work: We recommend long-term follow-up of this important cohort, in particular radiological and clinical progress. We also recommend studies to explore the sensitivity of clinical scores to detect clinically important differences between arms when both have already achieved a significant improvement from baseline. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN60672307 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02128555. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Each year, over 29,000 patients with ankle osteoarthritis seek a specialist opinion, of whom 4000 undergo NHS surgical treatment. The main surgical treatments for severe ankle osteoarthritis are total ankle replacement or arthrodesis (i.e. ankle fusion). Both are known to be good treatments to relieve pain, and each has its advantages. Total ankle replacement is a more popular patient choice than ankle fusion. When deciding whether to undergo ankle replacement or fusion, patients consult various sources, but the majority of them rely on the advice of their surgeon to make a final decision. To the best of our knowledge, there has never been a high-quality randomised clinical trial comparing these two treatments and there are no published guidelines on the most suitable management. In this study, 303 patients were randomised to a type of ankle surgery: 138 in the total ankle replacement arm and 144 in the ankle fusion arm received surgery. We found that both total ankle replacement and ankle fusion improved patients' walking ability, but we did not find a statistically significant difference between the treatment arms based on our primary outcome measure at 1 year. When we considered the type of total ankle replacement implant, we found that the implant most commonly used in the NHS (a fixed-bearing two-component implant) had better outcomes at 1 year than ankle fusion. Both total ankle replacement and ankle fusion appear to be safe. However, there were more wound-healing issues and nerve injuries in the total ankle replacement arm than in the ankle fusion arm. Twelve per cent of patients experienced bone non-union in the ankle fusion arm, but only 7.1% experienced symptoms. We estimate that there is a 69% chance that total ankle replacement would be cost-effective compared with ankle fusion at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained over a patient's lifetime. This study provides the NHS with important information that could help to obtain the best possible outcome for patients with severe ankle arthritis.

Total Ankle Replacement Versus Arthrodesis for End-Stage Ankle Osteoarthritis: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: End-stage ankle osteoarthritis causes severe pain and disability. There are no randomized trials comparing the 2 main surgical treatments: total ankle replacement (TAR) and ankle fusion (AF). OBJECTIVE: To determine which treatment is superior in terms of clinical scores and adverse events. DESIGN: A multicenter, parallel-group, open-label randomized trial. (ISRCTN registry number: 60672307). SETTING: 17 National Health Service trusts across the United Kingdom. PATIENTS: Patients with end-stage ankle osteoarthritis, aged 50 to 85 years, and suitable for either procedure. INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to TAR or AF surgical treatment. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was change in Manchester-Oxford Foot Questionnaire walking/standing (MOXFQ-W/S) domain scores between baseline and 52 weeks after surgery. No blinding was possible. RESULTS: Between 6 March 2015 and 10 January 2019, a total of 303 patients were randomly assigned; mean age was 68 years, and 71% were men. Twenty-one patients withdrew before surgery, and 281 clinical scores were analyzed. At 52 weeks, the mean MOXFQ-W/S scores improved for both groups. The adjusted difference in the change in MOXFQ-W/S scores from baseline was -5.6 (95% CI, -12.5 to 1.4), showing that TAR improved more than AF, but the difference was not considered clinically or statistically significant. The number of adverse events was similar between groups (109 vs. 104), but there were more wound healing issues in the TAR group and more thromboembolic events and nonunion in the AF group. The symptomatic nonunion rate for AF was 7%. A post hoc analysis suggested superiority of fixed-bearing TAR over AF (-11.1 [CI, -19.3 to -2.9]). LIMITATION: Only 52-week data; pragmatic design creates heterogeneity of implants and surgical techniques. CONCLUSION: Both TAR and AF improve MOXFQ-W/S and had similar clinical scores and number of harms. Total ankle replacement had greater wound healing complications and nerve injuries, whereas AF had greater thromboembolism and nonunion, with a symptomatic nonunion rate of 7%. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute for Health and Care Research Heath Technology Assessment Programme.

Optimal timing of anticoagulation after acute ischemic stroke with atrial fibrillation (OPTIMAS): Protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

RATIONALE: Atrial fibrillation causes one-fifth of ischemic strokes, with a high risk of early recurrence. Although long-term anticoagulation is highly effective for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation, initiation after stroke is usually delayed by concerns over intracranial hemorrhage risk. Direct oral anticoagulants offer a significantly lower risk of intracranial hemorrhage than other anticoagulants, potentially allowing earlier anticoagulation and prevention of recurrence, but the safety and efficacy of this approach has not been established. AIM: Optimal timing of anticoagulation after acute ischemic stroke with atrial fibrillation (OPTIMAS) will investigate whether early treatment with a direct oral anticoagulant, within four days of stroke onset, is as effective or better than delayed initiation, 7 to 14 days from onset, in atrial fibrillation patients with acute ischemic stroke. METHODS AND DESIGN: OPTIMAS is a multicenter randomized controlled trial with blinded outcome adjudication. Participants with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation eligible for anticoagulation with a direct oral anticoagulant are randomized 1:1 to early or delayed initiation. As of December 2021, 88 centers in the United Kingdom have opened. STUDY OUTCOMES: The primary outcome is a composite of recurrent stroke (ischemic stroke or symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage) and systemic arterial embolism within 90 days. Secondary outcomes include major bleeding, functional status, anticoagulant adherence, quality of life, health and social care resource use, and length of hospital stay. SAMPLE SIZE TARGET: A total of 3478 participants assuming event rates of 11.5% in the control arm and 8% in the intervention arm, 90% power and 5% alpha. We will follow a non-inferiority gatekeeper analysis approach with a non-inferiority margin of 2 percentage points. DISCUSSION: OPTIMAS aims to provide high-quality evidence on the safety and efficacy of early direct oral anticoagulant initiation after atrial fibrillation-associated ischemic stroke.Trial registrations: ISRCTN: 17896007; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03759938.

Effectiveness of Belimumab After Rituximab in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus : A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: B-cell depletion with rituximab is commonly used for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) that is refractory to conventional therapy, but it yields variable responses. We hypothesized that high B-cell activating factor (BAFF) levels after rituximab can cause disease flares, thereby limiting its effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: To obtain preliminary evidence for efficacy of the anti-BAFF therapeutic belimumab after rituximab in SLE. DESIGN: Phase 2, randomized, double-blind (patients, assessors, researchers, care providers), placebo-controlled, parallel-group, superiority trial. (ISRCTN: 47873003). SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty-two patients who had SLE that was refractory to conventional treatment and whose physicians had recommended rituximab therapy were recruited between 2 February 2017 and 28 March 2019. INTERVENTION: Participants were treated with rituximab and 4 to 8 weeks later were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive intravenous belimumab or placebo for 52 weeks. MEASUREMENTS: The prespecified primary end point was serum IgG anti-double-stranded DNA (anti-dsDNA) antibody levels at 52 weeks. Secondary outcomes included incidence of disease flares and adverse events. RESULTS: At 52 weeks, IgG anti-dsDNA antibody levels were lower in patients treated with belimumab compared with placebo (geometric mean, 47 [95% CI, 25 to 88] vs. 103 [CI, 49 to 213] IU/mL; 70% greater reduction from baseline [CI, 46% to 84%]; P < 0.001). Belimumab reduced risk for severe flare (BILAG-2004 grade A) compared with placebo (hazard ratio, 0.27 [CI, 0.07 to 0.98]; log-rank P = 0.033), with 10 severe flares in the placebo group and 3 in the belimumab group. Belimumab did not increase incidence of serious adverse events. Belimumab significantly suppressed B-cell repopulation compared with placebo (geometric mean, 0.012 [CI, 0.006 to 0.014] vs. 0.037 [CI, 0.021 to 0.081] × 109/L) at 52 weeks in a subset of patients (n = 25) with available data. LIMITATIONS: Small sample size; biomarker primary end point. CONCLUSION: Belimumab after rituximab significantly reduced serum IgG anti-dsDNA antibody levels and reduced risk for severe flare in patients with SLE that was refractory to conventional therapy. The results suggest that this combination could be developed as a therapeutic strategy. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Versus Arthritis.

Femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery compared with phacoemulsification: the FACT non-inferiority RCT.

BACKGROUND: Cataract surgery is one of the most common operations. Femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery (FLACS) is a technique that automates a number of operative steps. OBJECTIVES: To compare FLACS with phacoemulsification cataract surgery (PCS). DESIGN: Multicentre, outcome-masked, randomised controlled non-inferiority trial. SETTING: Three collaborating NHS hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 785 patients with age-related cataract in one or both eyes were randomised between May 2015 and September 2017. INTERVENTION: FLACS (n = 392 participants) or PCS (n = 393 participants). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was uncorrected distance visual acuity in the study eye after 3 months, expressed as the logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR): 0.00 logMAR (or 6/6 if expressed in Snellen) is normal (good visual acuity). Secondary outcomes included corrected distance visual acuity, refractive outcomes (within 0.5 dioptre and 1.0 dioptre of target), safety and patient-reported outcome measures at 3 and 12 months, and resource use. All trial follow-ups were performed by optometrists who were masked to the trial intervention. RESULTS: A total of 353 (90%) participants allocated to the FLACS arm and 317 (81%) participants allocated to the PCS arm attended follow-up at 3 months. The mean uncorrected distance visual acuity was similar in both treatment arms [0.13 logMAR, standard deviation 0.23 logMAR, for FLACS, vs. 0.14 logMAR, standard deviation 0.27 logMAR, for PCS, with a difference of -0.01 logMAR (95% confidence interval -0.05 to 0.03 logMAR; p = 0.63)]. The mean corrected distance visual acuity values were again similar in both treatment arms (-0.01 logMAR, standard deviation 0.19 logMAR FLACS vs. 0.01 logMAR, standard deviation 0.21 logMAR PCS; p = 0.34). There were two posterior capsule tears in the PCS arm. There were no significant differences between the treatment arms for any secondary outcome at 3 months. At 12 months, the mean uncorrected distance visual acuity was 0.14 logMAR (standard deviation 0.22 logMAR) for FLACS and 0.17 logMAR (standard deviation 0.25 logMAR) for PCS, with a difference between the treatment arms of -0.03 logMAR (95% confidence interval -0.06 to 0.01 logMAR; p = 0.17). The mean corrected distance visual acuity was 0.003 logMAR (standard deviation 0.18 logMAR) for FLACS and 0.03 logMAR (standard deviation 0.23 logMAR) for PCS, with a difference of -0.03 logMAR (95% confidence interval -0.06 to 0.01 logMAR; p = 0.11). There were no significant differences between the arms for any other outcomes, with the exception of the mean binocular corrected distance visual acuity with a difference of -0.02 logMAR (95% confidence interval -0.05 to 0.00 logMAR) (p = 0.036), which favoured FLACS. There were no significant differences between the arms for any health, social care or societal costs. For the economic evaluation, the mean cost difference was £167.62 per patient higher for FLACS (95% of iterations between -£14.12 and £341.67) than for PCS. The mean QALY difference (FLACS minus PCS) was 0.001 (95% of iterations between -0.011 and 0.015), which equates to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (cost difference divided by QALY difference) of £167,620. LIMITATIONS: Although the measurement of outcomes was carried out by optometrists who were masked to the treatment arm, the participants were not masked. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence suggests that FLACS is not inferior to PCS in terms of vision after 3 months' follow-up, and there were no significant differences in patient-reported health and safety outcomes after 12 months' follow-up. In addition, the statistically significant difference in binocular corrected distance visual acuity was not clinically significant. FLACS is not cost-effective. FUTURE WORK: To explore the possible differences in vision in patients without ocular co-pathology. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN77602616. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. Moorfields Eye Charity (grant references GR000233 and GR000449 for the endothelial cell counter and femtosecond laser used).

Cataract is a condition in which the natural lens inside the eye becomes cloudy, leading to loss of vision. In cataract surgery, the cloudy lens is replaced by a clear, artificial one. The standard surgical method (phacoemulsification) is carried out manually by the surgeon using ultrasound. Part of the procedure can now be automated using a computer-controlled laser. This is called femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery (FLACS). The potential advantages of FLACS include greater precision reproducibility, but this new technique is more expensive than the standard surgery. We performed a randomised controlled trial comparing the two techniques. We assessed vision, surgical complications, patient-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness at 3 and 12 months. We found that the outcomes were almost identical for eyesight, quality of life and complications. Overall, the evidence suggests that the new technique is not worth the additional costs.

Use of direct oral anticoagulants in patients with thrombotic antiphospholipid syndrome: Guidance from the Scientific and Standardization Committee of the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Clarity and guidance is required with regard to the use of direct oral anticoagulants in antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) patients, within the confines of the recent European Medicines Agency recommendations, discrepant recommendations in other international guidelines and the limited evidence base. To address this, the Lupus Anticoagulant/Antiphospholipid Antibodies Scientific and Standardization Committee (SSC) chair and co-chairs together with SSC Control of Anticoagulation members propose guidance for healthcare professionals to help them manage APS patients. Uncertainty in this field will be addressed. This guidance will also serve as a call and focus for research.

Imiquimod versus podophyllotoxin, with and without human papillomavirus vaccine, for anogenital warts: the HIPvac factorial RCT.

BACKGROUND: The comparative efficacy, and cost-effectiveness, of imiquimod or podophyllotoxin cream, either alone or in combination with the quadrivalent HPV vaccine (Gardasil®, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Merck & Co., Inc., Whitehouse Station, NJ, USA) in the treatment and prevention of recurrence of anogenital warts is not known. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to compare the efficacy of imiquimod and podophyllotoxin creams to treat anogenital warts and to assess whether or not the addition of quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine increases wart clearance or prevention of recurrence. DESIGN: A randomised, controlled, multicentre, partially blinded factorial trial. Participants were randomised equally to four groups, combining either topical treatment with quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine or placebo. Randomisation was stratified by gender, a history of previous warts and human immunodeficiency virus status. There was an accompanying economic evaluation, conducted from the provider perspective over the trial duration. SETTING: The setting was 22 sexual health clinics in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were patients with a first or repeat episode of anogenital warts who had not been treated in the previous 3 months and had not previously received quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised to 5% imiquimod cream (Aldara®; Meda Pharmaceuticals, Takeley, UK) for up to 16 weeks or 0.15% podophyllotoxin cream (Warticon®; GlaxoSmithKlein plc, Brentford, UK) for 4 weeks, which was extended to up to 16 weeks if warts persisted. Participants were simultaneously randomised to quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (Gardasil) or saline control at 0, 8 and 24 weeks. Cryotherapy was permitted after week 4 at the discretion of the investigator. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were a combined primary outcome of wart clearance at week 16 and remaining wart free at week 48. Efficacy analysis was by logistic regression with multiple imputation for missing follow-up values; economic evaluation considered the costs per quality-adjusted life-year. RESULTS: A total of 503 participants were enrolled and attended at least one follow-up visit. The mean age was 31 years, 66% of participants were male (24% of males were men who have sex with men), 50% had a previous history of warts and 2% were living with human immunodeficiency virus. For the primary outcome, the adjusted odds ratio for imiquimod cream versus podophyllotoxin cream was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.54 to 1.23), and for quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine versus placebo, the adjusted odds ratio was 1.46 (95% confidence interval 0.97 to 2.20). For the components of the primary outcome, the adjusted odds ratio for wart free at week 16 for imiquimod versus podophyllotoxin was 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.52 to 1.14) and for quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine versus placebo was 1.30 (95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.91). The adjusted odds ratio for remaining wart free at 48 weeks (in those who were wart free at week 16) for imiquimod versus podophyllotoxin was 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.54 to 1.78) and for quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine versus placebo was 1.39 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 2.63). Podophyllotoxin plus quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine had inconclusive cost-effectiveness compared with podophyllotoxin alone. LIMITATIONS: Hepatitis A vaccine as control was replaced by a saline placebo in a non-identical syringe, administered by someone outside the research team, for logistical reasons. Sample size was reduced from 1000 to 500 because of slow recruitment and other delays. CONCLUSIONS: A benefit of the vaccine was not demonstrated in this trial. The odds of clearance at week 16 and remaining clear at week 48 were 46% higher with vaccine, and consistent effects were seen for both wart clearance and recurrence separately, but these differences were not statistically significant. Imiquimod and podophyllotoxin creams had similar efficacy for wart clearance, but with a wide confidence interval. The trial results do not support earlier evidence of a lower recurrence with use of imiquimod than with use of podophyllotoxin. Podophyllotoxin without quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine is the most cost-effective strategy at the current vaccine list price. A further larger trial is needed to definitively investigate the effect of the vaccine; studies of the immune response in vaccine recipients are needed to investigate the mechanism of action. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN32729817 and EudraCT 2013-002951-14. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 47. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The HIPvac [Human papillomavirus infection: a randomised controlled trial of Imiquimod cream (5%) versus Podophyllotoxin cream (0.15%), in combination with quadrivalent human papillomavirus or control vaccination in the treatment and prevention of recurrence of anogenital warts] trial compared two commonly used creams to treat genital warts: 0.15% podophyllotoxin cream (Warticon^®; GlaxoSmithKlein plc, Brentford, UK) and 5% imiquimod cream (Aldara^®; Meda Pharmaceuticals, Takeley, UK). It also investigated whether or not a vaccine used to prevent human papillomavirus infection, quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (Gardasil^®, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Merck & Co., Inc., Whitehouse Station, NJ, USA), could help treat warts or prevent them from coming back in patients whose warts had been cleared. The HIPvac trial was a randomised controlled trial involving 503 patients with warts attending sexual health clinics in England and Wales. The creams and the vaccine were well tolerated; there was some soreness where the cream was applied, but no unexpected side effects. When deciding which treatment was better, we looked at whether or not the warts had cleared by 16 weeks after starting treatment and, if cleared, whether or not they returned by 48 weeks. We compared the creams against each other, and the addition of vaccine against no vaccine (a placebo injection). Patients were allowed to have cryotherapy (freezing treatment) as well, if the investigator advised this. We also calculated the value for money of each type of treatment. The two creams were very similar in how well they worked to clear the warts. One difference was that podophyllotoxin cream worked slightly quicker. The number of patients given cryotherapy was about the same for both types of cream. We had expected that recurrence of warts after treatment with imiquimod cream might be less than after treatment with podophyllotoxin cream, but, in fact, the two creams were similar. Quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine did not improve clearance of warts or reduce the chance of recurrence, but the result remains inconclusive. If we had been able to recuit 1000 participants as originally planned, we might have been able to be more certain about whether there was any benefit of vaccination. Further research would be needed to investigate any possible effect. The two creams offered similar value for money in treating warts. Giving patients the vaccine in addition to the cream is not good value for money at its current list price, given the uncertainty about the benefit it offers.

Femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery compared with phacoemulsification cataract surgery: randomized noninferiority trial with 1-year outcomes.

PURPOSE: To report the 1-year outcomes of a randomized trial comparing femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery (FLACS) and phacoemulsification cataract surgery (PCS). SETTING: Moorfields Eye Hospital, New Cross Hospital, and Sussex Eye Hospital, United Kingdom. DESIGN: Multicenter, randomized controlled noninferiority trial. METHODS: Patients undergoing cataract surgery were randomized to FLACS or PCS. Postoperative assessments were masked. Outcomes included uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA), corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA), complications, corneal endothelial cell count, and patient-reported outcomes measures. RESULTS: The study enrolled 785 participants. A total of 311 of 392 (79%) participants were allocated to FLACS and 292 of 393 (74%) participants were allocated to PCS attended follow-up at 1 year. Mean UDVA was 0.14 (SD = 0.22) for FLACS and 0.17 (0.25) for PCS with difference of -0.03 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) (95%, -0.06 to 0.01, P = .17). Mean CDVA was 0.003 (0.18) for FLACS and 0.03 (0.23) for PCS with difference of -0.03 logMAR (95% CI, -0.06 to 0.01, P = .11); 75% of both FLACS (230/307) and PCS (218/290) cases were within ±0.5 diopters (D) refractive target, and 292 (95%) of 307 eyes of FLACS and 279 (96%) of 290 eyes of PCS groups were within ±1.0 D. There were no significant differences between arms for all other outcomes with the exception of binocular CDVA mean difference -0.02 (-0.05 to 0.002) logMAR (P = .036) favoring FLACS. Mean cost difference was £167.62 per patient greater for FLACS (95% iterations between -£14.12 and £341.67). CONCLUSIONS: PCS is not inferior to FLACS regarding vision, patient-reported health, and safety outcomes after 1-year follow-up. A difference was found for binocular CDVA, which, although statistically significant, was not clinically important. FLACS was not cost-effective.

Safety and efficacy of belimumab after B cell depletion therapy in systemic LUPUS erythematosus (BEAT-LUPUS) trial: statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence that rituximab, a B cell depletion therapy, is an effective treatment for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Data on the mechanisms of B cell depletion in SLE indicate that the combination of rituximab and belimumab may be more effective than rituximab alone. The safety and efficacy of belimumab after B cell depletion therapy in systemic LUPUS erythematosus (BEAT-LUPUS) trial aims to determine whether belimumab is superior to placebo, when given 4-8 weeks after treatment with rituximab. This article describes the statistical analysis plan for this trial as an update to the published protocol. It is written prior to the end of patient follow-up, while the outcome of the trial is still unknown. DESIGN AND METHODS: BEAT-LUPUS is a randomised, double-blind, phase II trial of 52 weeks of belimumab versus placebo, initiated 4-8 weeks after rituximab treatment. The primary outcome is anti-dsDNA antibodies at 52 weeks post randomisation. Secondary outcomes include lupus flares and damage, adverse events, doses of concomitant medications, quality of life, and clinical biomarkers. We describe the trial's clinical context, outcome measures, sample size calculation, and statistical modelling strategy, and the supportive analyses planned to evaluate for mediation of the treatment effect through changes in concomitant medication doses and bias from missing data. DISCUSSION: The analysis will provide detailed information on the safety and effectiveness of belimumab. It will be implemented from July 2020 when patient follow-up and data collection is complete. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN: 47873003 . Registered on 28 November 2016. EudracT: 2015-005543-14 . Registered on 19 November 2018.

Corneal cross-linking versus standard care in children with keratoconus - a randomised, multicentre, observer-masked trial of efficacy and safety (KERALINK): a statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: The KERALINK trial tests the hypothesis that corneal cross-linking (CXL) treatment reduces the progression of keratoconus in comparison to standard care in patients aged 10-16 years. This article describes the statistical analysis plan for this trial as an update to the published protocol. It is written before the end of the patient follow-up, while the outcome of the trial is still unknown. DESIGN AND METHODS: KERALINK is a randomised controlled, observer-masked, multicentre trial in progressive keratoconus comparing epithelium-off CXL with standard care, including spectacles or contact lenses as necessary for best-corrected acuity. Keratoconus is a disorder of the shape of the cornea in which the normally round dome-shaped clear front window of the eye (cornea) thins progressively leading to a cone-like bulge. This impairs the ability of the eye to focus properly, causing reduced vision which requires spectacle or contact lens wear or, in a minority of patients, eventually corneal replacement by a transplant for best vision. The primary outcome measure is the between-group difference in K2 at 18 months adjusted for K2 at baseline examination. K2 is the value of the steepest corneal meridian as measured on Pentacam topography. Secondary outcomes are keratoconus progression, time to keratoconus progression, visual acuity, refraction, apical corneal thickness and adverse events. Patient-reported effects will be explored by questionnaires. We describe in detail the statistical aspects of KERALINK: the outcome measures, the sample size calculation, general analysis principles, the planned descriptive statistics and statistical models, and planned subgroup and sensitivity analyses. DISCUSSION: The KERALINK statistical analysis will provide comprehensive and precise information on the relative effectiveness of the two treatments. The plan will be implemented in May 2020 when follow-up for the trial is completed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT, 2016-001460-11. Registered on 19 May 2016.

Risk Factors for Visual Field Deterioration in the United Kingdom Glaucoma Treatment Study.

PURPOSE: The United Kingdom Glaucoma Treatment Study (UKGTS) investigated the visual field (VF)-preserving effect of medical treatment in open-angle glaucoma (OAG). The objective of this analysis was to identify risk factors associated with VF deterioration. DESIGN: Randomized, double-masked, placebo-controlled multicenter trial. PARTICIPANTS: Five hundred sixteen participants with previously untreated OAG were recruited prospectively in 10 United Kingdom centers. METHODS: Eligibility criteria were modeled on those for the Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial. Study participants were randomized to either latanoprost 0.005% or placebo eye drops. The observation period was 2 years and involved, among other procedures, VF testing and intraocular pressure (IOP) measurement at 11 scheduled visits, with clustering of tests at baseline, 18 months, and 24 months. Guided progression analysis pattern deviation maps were used to determine VF deterioration. Cox regression was used to compute the hazard ratios (HRs) and respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs) while accounting for the correlation within sites. Model selection was guided by backward stepwise selection conducted on the model containing all variables that were significant at the 0.2 level in the univariate analysis. Follow-up variables that showed collinearity with baseline values were not retained in the final model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Time to VF deterioration. RESULTS: Treatment with latanoprost reduced the HR, for VF deterioration by 58% (HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.27-0.67; P = 0.001). Factors associated with deterioration were bilateral disease (HR, 1.59 for yes vs. no; 95% CI, 1.02-2.50; P = 0.041), higher baseline IOP (HR, 1.07 per mmHg; 95% CI, 1.02-1.12; P = 0.008), and disc hemorrhage at visit 1 (HR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.07-4.04; P = 0.030). Smoking (current or previous) was associated with a reduced HR, for VF deterioration (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.93; P = 0.023). No other evaluated factors were found to be statistically significant in the multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In the UKGTS, treatment with latanoprost halved VF deterioration risk. Bilateral disease, higher IOP, and disc hemorrhage were confirmed as risk factors for deterioration; smoking history seemed to be protective against VF deterioration.

Femtosecond Laser-Assisted Cataract Surgery Versus Phacoemulsification Cataract Surgery (FACT): A Randomized Noninferiority Trial.

PURPOSE: To report the 3-month results of a randomized trial (Femtosecond Laser-Assisted Cataract Trial [FACT]) comparing femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery (FLACS) with standard phacoemulsification cataract surgery (PCS). DESIGN: Multicenter, randomized controlled trial funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research (HTA 13/04/46/). PARTICIPANTS: Seven hundred eighty-five patients with age-related cataract. METHODS: This trial took place in 3 hospitals in the UK National Health Service (NHS). Randomization (1:1) was stratified by site, surgeon, and 1 or both eyes eligible using a secure web-based system. Postoperative assessments were masked to the allocated intervention. The primary outcome was unaided distance visual acuity (UDVA) in the study eye at 3 months. Secondary outcomes included corrected distance visual acuity, complications, and patient-reported outcomes measures. The noninferiority margin was 0.1 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR). ISRCTN.com registry, number ISRCTN77602616. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We enrolled 785 participants between May 2015 and September 2017 and randomly assigned 392 to FLACS and 393 to PCS. At 3 months postoperatively, mean UDVA difference between treatment arms was -0.01 logMAR (-0.05 to 0.03), and mean corrected distance visual acuity difference was -0.01 logMAR (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.05 to 0.02). Seventy-one percent of both FLACS and PCS cases were within ±0.5 diopters (D) of the refractive target, and 93% of FLACS and 92% of PCS cases were within ±1.0 D. There were 2 posterior capsule tears in the PCS arm and none in the FLACS arm. There were no significant differences between arms for any secondary outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery is not inferior to conventional PCS surgery 3 months after surgery. Both methods are as good in terms of vision, patient-reported health, and safety outcomes at 3 months. Longer-term outcomes of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness are awaited.

A randomised, multi-centre trial of total ankle replacement versus ankle arthrodesis in the treatment of patients with end stage ankle osteoarthritis (TARVA): statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: The total ankle replacement versus ankle arthrodesis (TARVA) trial aims to determine which surgical procedure confers the greatest improvement in pain-free function for patients with end-stage ankle osteoarthritis. Both procedures are effective but there has not yet been a direct comparison to establish which is superior. This article describes the statistical analysis plan for this trial as an update to the published protocol. It is written prior to the end of patient follow-up, while the outcome of the trial is still unknown. DESIGN AND METHODS: TARVA is a randomised, un-blinded, parallel group trial of total ankle replacement versus ankle arthrodesis. The primary outcome is the Manchester-Oxford Foot Questionnaire walking/standing domain score at 52 weeks post-surgery. Secondary outcomes include measures of pain, social interaction, physical function, quality of life, and range of motion. We describe in detail the statistical aspects of TARVA: the outcome measures, the sample size calculation, general analysis principles including treatment of missing data, the planned descriptive statistics and statistical models, and planned subgroup and sensitivity analyses. DISCUSSION: The TARVA statistical analysis will provide comprehensive and precise information on the relative effectiveness of the two treatments. The plan will be implemented in January 2020 when follow-up for the trial is completed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry number 60672307, ClinicalTrials.gov registration number NCT02128555. Registered 1 May 2014. Recruitment started in January 2015 and ended in January 2019.

Belimumab after B cell depletion therapy in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (BEAT Lupus) protocol: a prospective multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, 52-week phase II clinical trial.

INTRODUCTION: Few treatment options exist for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) who fail conventional therapy. Although widely used to treat lupus, the efficacy of B cell depletion therapy using rituximab has not been demonstrated in randomised clinical trials. Following rituximab, elevated levels of serum B cell activating factor (BAFF) have been associated with failure to remit or subsequent lupus relapse. The administration of belimumab, a monoclonal antibody specific for BAFF and approved for lupus therapy, could potentiate the efficacy of rituximab and enable longer periods of disease remission. The aim of this trial is to assess the safety and efficacy of belimumab following rituximab in patients with SLE. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: BEAT Lupus is a double-blind, randomised, placebo controlled, phase II clinical trial. Patients with SLE commencing a treatment cycle of rituximab (two 1g infusions, 2 weeks apart) as standard of care will be randomised to receive belimumab or placebo, 4 to 8 weeks following the first rituximab infusion. Belimumab or placebo infusions are administered for 52 weeks. The primary outcome measure is anti-double stranded DNA (anti-dsDNA) antibody levels at 52 weeks. Secondary outcomes include measures of adverse events, lupus disease activity and cumulative steroid dose. The kinetics of B cell repopulation will be assessed in a subgroup of participants. Belimumab administration after rituximab may provide a novel therapeutic pathway for patients with active lupus if safety is demonstrated in this proof of concept study, and lower anti-dsDNA antibodies levels are achieved in those patients treated with belimumab compared with placebo. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol has been reviewed and approved by the Hampstead Research Ethics Committee - London (reference 16/LO/1024). Trial information is available at https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN47873003, and the results of this trial will be submitted for publication in relevant peer-reviewed journals. Key findings will also be presented at national and international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN47873; date assigned to the registry: 28 November 2016. The stage is pre-results.

Minimally invasive autopsy for fetuses and children based on a combination of post-mortem MRI and endoscopic examination: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Less invasive perinatal and paediatric autopsy methods, such as imaging alongside targeted endoscopy and organ biopsy, may address declining consent rates for traditional autopsy, but their acceptability and accuracy are not known. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to provide empirical data on the acceptability and likely uptake for different types of autopsy among key stakeholders (study 1); and to analyse existing autopsy data sources to provide estimates of the potential efficacy of less invasive autopsy (LIA) and its projected utility in clinical practice (study 2). REVIEW METHODS: Study 1: this was a mixed-methods study. Parents were involved in research design and interpretation of findings. Substudy 1: a cross-sectional survey of 859 parents who had experienced miscarriage, termination of pregnancy for fetal anomaly, stillbirth, infant or child death, and interviews with 20 responders. Substudy 2: interviews with 25 health professionals and four coroners. Substudy 3: interviews with 16 religious leaders and eight focus groups, with 76 members of the Muslim and Jewish community. Study 2: a retrospective analysis of national data in addition to detailed information from an existing in-house autopsy database of > 5000 clinical cases that had undergone standard autopsy to determine the proportion of cases by clinical indication group for which tissue sampling of specific internal organs significantly contributed to the diagnosis. RESULTS: Substudy 1: 91% of participants indicated that they would consent to some form of LIA, 54% would consent to standard autopsy, 74% to minimally invasive autopsy (MIA) and 77% to non-invasive autopsy (NIA). Substudy 2: participants viewed LIA as a positive development, but had concerns around the limitations of the technology and de-skilling the workforce. Cost implications, skills and training requirements were identified as implementation challenges. Substudy 3: religious leaders agreed that NIA was religiously permissible, but MIA was considered less acceptable. Community members indicated that they might consent to NIA if the body could be returned for burial within 24 hours. Study 2: in 5-10% of cases of sudden unexplained death in childhood and sudden unexplained death in infants, the final cause of death is determined by routine histological sampling of macroscopically normal organs, predominantly the heart and lungs, and in this group routine histological sampling therefore remains an important aspect of investigation. In contrast, routine histological examination of macroscopically normal organs rarely (< 0.5%) provides the cause of death in fetal cases, making LIA and NIA approaches potentially highly applicable. LIMITATIONS: A key limitation of the empirical research is that it is hypothetical. Further research is required to determine actual uptake. Furthermore, because of the retrospective nature of the autopsy data set, findings regarding the likely contribution of organ sampling to final diagnosis are based on extrapolation of findings from historical autopsies, and prospective data collection is required to validate the conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: LIA is viable and acceptable (except for unexplained deaths), and likely to increase uptake. Further health economic, performance and implementation studies are required to determine the optimal service configuration required to offer this as routine clinical care. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Autopsy (post-mortem) examination of babies and children who die is often necessary to help doctors or coroners find out the cause of death. It may also be useful for research. However, many bereaved parents dislike the idea of their child being cut and some religious communities prohibit the procedure. Over the past 30 years, consent rates for autopsies have declined. In order to address parental concerns and declining uptake, a number of less invasive options have been developed. These include X-ray and magnetic resonance imaging, by doing keyhole internal examination and needle organ biopsy. However, it is not known to what extent such methods are acceptable to parents, nor how accurate they are. We surveyed the attitudes of bereaved parents and religious group leaders to such less invasive methods. The less invasive option was considered acceptable and would be chosen by almost 1000 bereaved parents. Such an approach is also acceptable to those religious groups for whom standard autopsy examination is not. We also examined a database of > 5000 standard autopsies to determine the extent to which specific internal organ biopsy contributed to the diagnosis. In > 5000 standard autopsies, traditional organ biopsy rarely contributed to determination of the cause of death or the main diagnosis. Therefore, a more limited and targeted tissue sampling protocol could be introduced without significant reduction in the accuracy of final diagnosis. The specific approaches required will depend on individual circumstances and are likely to include a range, from targeted organ biopsy with an open incision, through incisionless image-guided needle biopsies, to non-invasive imaging-only techniques. Future studies may focus on how the NHS could implement offering less invasive approaches nationally, what the cost­benefit of such an approach could be and what the impact could be on real-world uptake if this were to be offered routinely.

Assessing feasibility of routine identification tools for mental health disorder in neurology clinics.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to test the feasibility of using an online parent-completed diagnostic assessment for detecting common mental health disorders in children attending neurology clinics. The assessment does not require intervention by a mental health professional or additional time in the clinic appointment. SETTING: Two parallel and related screening studies were undertaken: Study 1: Tertiary paediatric neurology clinics. Study 2: Secondary and tertiary paediatric neurology clinics. PATIENTS: Study 1: 406 Young people aged 7-18 attending paediatric neurology clinics. Study 2: 225 Young people aged 3-18 attending paediatric epilepsy clinics. INTERVENTIONS: Parents completed online versions of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and Development and Well-being Assessment (DAWBA). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We investigated: the willingness of families to complete the measures, proportion identified as having mental health disorders, time taken to complete the measures and acceptability to families and clinicians. RESULTS: The mean total difficulties score of those that had completed the SDQ fell in the 'high' and 'very high' ranges. 60% and 70% of the DAWBAS completed met criteria for at least one DSM-IV disorder in study 1 and 2 respectively. 98% of the parents reported that the screening methods used were acceptable.

Neprilysin inhibition for pulmonary arterial hypertension: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, proof-of-concept trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is an incurable, incapacitating disorder resulting from increased pulmonary vascular resistance, pulmonary arterial remodelling, and right ventricular failure. In preclinical models, the combination of a PDE5 inhibitor (PDE5i) with a neprilysin inhibitor augments natriuretic peptide bioactivity, promotes cGMP signalling, and reverses the structural and haemodynamic deficits that characterize PAH. Herein, we conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to assess the efficacy and safety of repurposing the neprilysin inhibitor, racecadotril, in PAH. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: Twenty-one PAH patients stable on PDE5i therapy were recruited. Acute haemodynamic and biochemical changes following a single dose of racecadotril or matching placebo were determined; this was followed by a 14-day safety and efficacy evaluation. The primary endpoint in both steps was the maximum change in circulating atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) concentration (Δmax ), with secondary outcomes including pulmonary and systemic haemodynamics plus mechanistic biomarkers. KEY RESULTS: Acute administration of racecadotril (100 mg) resulted in a 79% increase in the plasma ANP concentration and a 106% increase in plasma cGMP levels, with a concomitant 14% fall in pulmonary vascular resistance. Racecadotril (100 mg; t.i.d.) treatment for 14 days resulted in a 19% rise in plasma ANP concentration. Neither acute nor chronic administration of racecadotril resulted in a significant drop in mean arterial BP or any serious adverse effects. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: This Phase IIa evaluation provides proof-of-principle evidence that neprilysin inhibitors may have therapeutic utility in PAH and warrants a larger scale prospective trial.

Human papillomavirus infection: protocol for a randomised controlled trial of imiquimod cream (5%) versus podophyllotoxin cream (0.15%), in combination with quadrivalent human papillomavirus or control vaccination in the treatment and prevention of recurrence of anogenital warts (HIPvac trial).

BACKGROUND: Anogenital warts are the second most common sexually transmitted infection diagnosed in sexual health services in England. About 90% of genital warts are caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6 or 11, and half of episodes diagnosed are recurrences. The best and most cost-effective treatment for patients with anogenital warts is unknown. The commonly used treatments are self-administered topical agents, podophyllotoxin (0.15% cream) or imiquimod (5% cream), or cryotherapy with liquid nitrogen. Quadrivalent HPV (qHPV) vaccination is effective in preventing infection, and disease, but whether it has any therapeutic effect is not known. METHODS AND DESIGN: To investigate the efficacy of clearance and prevention of recurrence of external anogenital warts by topical treatments, podophyllotoxin 0.15% cream or imiquimod 5% cream, in combination with a three-dose regimen of qHPV or control vaccination. 500 adult patients presenting with external anogenital warts with either a first or subsequent episode of anogenital warts will be entered into this randomised, controlled partially blinded 2 × 2 factorial trial. DISCUSSION: The trial is expected to provide the first high-quality evidence of the comparative efficacy and cost-effectiveness of the two topical treatments in current use, as well as investigate the potential benefit of HPV vaccination, in the management of anogenital warts. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered prior to starting recruitment under the following reference numbers: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) Registry - ISRCTN32729817 (registered 25 July 2014); European Union Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT) - 2013-002951-14 (registered 26 June 2013).