Analytical approaches for antimalarial antibody responses to confirm historical and recent malaria transmission: an example from the Philippines.

Background: Assessing the status of malaria transmission in endemic areas becomes increasingly challenging as countries approach elimination. Serology can provide robust estimates of malaria transmission intensities, and multiplex serological assays allow for simultaneous assessment of markers of recent and historical malaria exposure. Methods: Here, we evaluated different statistical and machine learning methods for analyzing multiplex malaria-specific antibody response data to classify recent and historical exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. To assess these methods, we utilized samples from a health-facility based survey (n = 9132) in the Philippines, where we quantified antibody responses against 8 P. falciparum and 6 P. vivax-specific antigens from 3 sites with varying transmission intensity. Findings: Measurements of antibody responses and seroprevalence were consistent with the 3 sites' known endemicity status. Among the models tested, a machine learning (ML) approach (Random Forest model) using 4 serological markers (PfGLURP R2, Etramp5.Ag1, GEXP18, and PfMSP119) gave better predictions for P. falciparum recent infection in Palawan (AUC: 0.9591, CI 0.9497-0.9684) than individual antigen seropositivity. Although the ML approach did not improve P. vivax infection predictions, ML classifications confirmed the absence of recent exposure to P. falciparum and P. vivax in both Occidental Mindoro and Bataan. For predicting historical P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission, seroprevalence and seroconversion rates based on cumulative exposure markers AMA1 and MSP119 showed reliable trends in the 3 sites. Interpretation: Our study emphasizes the utility of serological markers in predicting recent and historical exposure in a sub-national elimination setting, and also highlights the potential use of machine learning models using multiplex antibody responses to improve assessment of the malaria transmission status of countries aiming for elimination. This work also provides baseline antibody data for monitoring risk in malaria-endemic areas in the Philippines. Funding: Newton Fund, Philippine Council for Health Research and Development, UK Medical Research Council.

Serological evaluation of risk factors for exposure to malaria in a pre-elimination setting in Malaysian Borneo.

Malaysia has reported no indigenous cases of P. falciparum and P. vivax for over 3 years. When transmission reaches such low levels, it is important to understand the individuals and locations where exposure risks are high, as they may be at greater risk in the case of a resurgence of transmission. Serology is a useful tool in low transmission settings, providing insight into exposure over longer durations than PCR or RDT. We ran blood samples from a 2015 population-based survey in northern Sabah, Malaysian Borneo on a multiplex bead assay. Using supervised machine learning methods, we characterised recent and historic exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax and found recent exposure to P. falciparum to be very low, with exposure to both species increasing with age. We performed a risk-factor assessment on environmental, behavioural, demographic and household factors, and identified forest activity and longer travel times to healthcare as common risk-factors for exposure to P. falciparum and P. vivax. In addition, we used remote-sensing derived data and geostatistical models to assess environmental and spatial associations with exposure. We created predictive maps of exposure to recent P. falciparum in the study area and showed 3 clear foci of exposure. This study provides useful insight into the environmental, spatial and demographic risk factors for P. falciparum and P. vivax at a period of low transmission in Malaysian Borneo. The findings would be valuable in the case of resurgence of human malarias in the region.

Safety of single-dose primaquine as a Plasmodium falciparum gametocytocide: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended single low-dose (SLD, 0.25 mg/kg) primaquine to be added as a Plasmodium (P.) falciparum gametocytocide to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) without glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing, to accelerate malaria elimination efforts and avoid the spread of artemisinin resistance. Uptake of this recommendation has been relatively slow primarily due to safety concerns. METHODS: A systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of single-dose (SD) primaquine studies for P. falciparum malaria were performed. Absolute and fractional changes in haemoglobin concentration within a week and adverse effects within 28 days of treatment initiation were characterised and compared between primaquine and no primaquine arms using random intercept models. RESULTS: Data comprised 20 studies that enrolled 6406 participants, of whom 5129 (80.1%) had received a single target dose of primaquine ranging between 0.0625 and 0.75 mg/kg. There was no effect of primaquine in G6PD-normal participants on haemoglobin concentrations. However, among 194 G6PD-deficient African participants, a 0.25 mg/kg primaquine target dose resulted in an additional 0.53 g/dL (95% CI 0.17-0.89) reduction in haemoglobin concentration by day 7, with a 0.27 (95% CI 0.19-0.34) g/dL haemoglobin drop estimated for every 0.1 mg/kg increase in primaquine dose. Baseline haemoglobin, young age, and hyperparasitaemia were the main determinants of becoming anaemic (Hb < 10 g/dL), with the nadir observed on ACT day 2 or 3, regardless of G6PD status and exposure to primaquine. Time to recovery from anaemia took longer in young children and those with baseline anaemia or hyperparasitaemia. Serious adverse haematological events after primaquine were few (9/3, 113, 0.3%) and transitory. One blood transfusion was reported in the primaquine arms, and there were no primaquine-related deaths. In controlled studies, the proportions with either haematological or any serious adverse event were similar between primaquine and no primaquine arms. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the WHO recommendation to use 0.25 mg/kg of primaquine as a P. falciparum gametocytocide, including in G6PD-deficient individuals. Although primaquine is associated with a transient reduction in haemoglobin levels in G6PD-deficient individuals, haemoglobin levels at clinical presentation are the major determinants of anaemia in these patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42019128185.

Characterising spatial patterns of neglected tropical disease transmission using integrated sero-surveillance in Northern Ghana.

BACKGROUND: As prevalence decreases in pre-elimination settings, identifying the spatial distribution of remaining infections to target control measures becomes increasingly challenging. By measuring multiple antibody responses indicative of past exposure to different pathogens, integrated serological surveys enable simultaneous characterisation of residual transmission of multiple pathogens. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we combine integrated serological surveys with geostatistical modelling and remote sensing-derived environmental data to estimate the spatial distribution of exposure to multiple diseases in children in Northern Ghana. The study utilised the trachoma surveillance survey platform (cross-sectional two-stage cluster-sampled surveys) to collect information on additional identified diseases at different stages of elimination with minimal additional cost. Geostatistical modelling of serological data allowed identification of areas with high probabilities of recent exposure to diseases of interest, including areas previously unknown to control programmes. We additionally demonstrate how serological surveys can be used to identify areas with exposure to multiple diseases and to prioritise areas with high uncertainty for future surveys. Modelled estimates of cluster-level prevalence were strongly correlated with more operationally feasible metrics of antibody responses. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates the potential of integrated serological surveillance to characterise spatial distributions of exposure to multiple pathogens in low transmission and elimination settings when the probability of detecting infections is low.

Remote bednet use monitoring to describe patterns of use and exposure to female Anopheles mosquitoes in an Ugandan cohort.

Background: Long lasting insecticide-treated bednets (LLINs) are the most widely used tool for preventing malaria. There has been a plateau in progress in the highest burden African countries since 2015, leading to questions about the effectiveness of LLINs. In this study, remote LLIN use monitors were deployed in a cohort in Eastern Uganda to explore how LLIN use interacts with mosquito exposure. Methods: The SmartNet study included 20 households from May to October 2019. SmartNet devices recorded, every 15 min, whether an LLIN was unfurled or folded up. Unannounced visits were used to assess SmartNet accuracy. Risk factors associated with poor LLIN use were assessed using generalized linear equations. Female Anopheles exposure was estimated by combining hourly probabilities of exposure from human landing catches and measures of density from biweekly CDC light traps in participants rooms. Mosquito exposure averted by LLINs was quantified using SmartNet measurements and age-related differences were estimated using generalized linear equations, adjusting for relevant covariates and household clustering. Results: 96 individuals contributed 5,640 SmartNet observation nights. In 126 unannounced visits, SmartNet had an area under the curve of 0.869 in classifying whether the LLIN was up or down. The rate of non-use was 13.5% of nights (95% CI: 12.6-14.3%). Compared to children under 5, non-use was 1.8 times higher (95% CI: 1.6-2.1; p < 0.001) in children 5-15 years and 2.6 times higher (95% CI: 2.2-3.1; p < 0.001) in participants aged 15-<30years. There was no difference between children under 5 years and adults > 30 years. LLIN use averted 50.3% of female Anopheles mosquito exposure (95% CI: 40.0-60.0%), with decreasing point estimates of efficacy across age groups: from 61.7% (95% CI: 42.6-80.7%) in children under 5 years to 48.0% (95% CI: 29.1-66.8%) in adults over 30. Conclusions: Objective monitors are accurate and can feasibly be deployed to obtain data about LLIN use. LLINs provided protection from only 50% of female Anopheles mosquito exposure in this cohort and protection was dependent upon age. In assessing the role of LLINs in malaria prevention it is crucial to consider the dynamics between mosquito exposure and LLIN use behaviors.

Efficacy of Single-Dose Primaquine With Artemisinin Combination Therapy on Plasmodium falciparum Gametocytes and Transmission: An Individual Patient Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Since the World Health Organization recommended single low-dose (0.25 mg/kg) primaquine (PQ) in combination with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) in areas of low transmission or artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, several single-site studies have been conducted to assess efficacy. METHODS: An individual patient meta-analysis to assess gametocytocidal and transmission-blocking efficacy of PQ in combination with different ACTs was conducted. Random effects logistic regression was used to quantify PQ effect on (1) gametocyte carriage in the first 2 weeks post treatment; and (2) the probability of infecting at least 1 mosquito or of a mosquito becoming infected. RESULTS: In 2574 participants from 14 studies, PQ reduced PCR-determined gametocyte carriage on days 7 and 14, most apparently in patients presenting with gametocytemia on day 0 (odds ratio [OR], 0.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], .17-.28 and OR, 0.12; 95% CI, .08-.16, respectively). Rate of decline in gametocyte carriage was faster when PQ was combined with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) compared to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) (P = .010 for day 7). Addition of 0.25 mg/kg PQ was associated with near complete prevention of transmission to mosquitoes. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission blocking is achieved with 0.25 mg/kg PQ. Gametocyte persistence and infectivity are lower when PQ is combined with AL compared to DP.

Quantifying human-animal contact rates in Malaysian Borneo: Influence of agricultural landscapes on contact with potential zoonotic disease reservoirs.

Changing landscapes across the globe, but particularly in Southeast Asia, are pushing humans and animals closer together and may increase the likelihood of zoonotic spillover events. Malaysian Borneo is hypothesized to be at high risk of spillover events due to proximity between reservoir species and humans caused by recent deforestation in the region. However, the relationship between landscape and human-animal contact rates has yet to be quantified. An environmentally stratified cross-sectional survey was conducted in Sabah, Malaysia in 2015, collecting geolocated questionnaire data on potential risk factors for contact with animals for 10,100 individuals. 51% of individuals reported contact with poultry, 46% with NHPs, 30% with bats, and 2% with swine. Generalised linear mixed models identified occupational and demographic factors associated with increased contact with these species, which varied when comparing wildlife to domesticated animals. Reported contact rates with each animal group were integrated with remote sensing-derived environmental data within a Bayesian framework to identify regions with high probabilities of contact with animal reservoirs. We have identified high spatial heterogeneity of contact with animals and clear associations between agricultural practices and high animal rates. This approach will help inform public health campaigns in at-risk populations and can improve pathogen surveillance efforts on Malaysian Borneo. This method can additionally serve as a framework for researchers looking to identify targets for future pathogen detection in a chosen region of study.

Correction: Serologically Defined Variations in Malaria Endemicity in Pará State, Brazil.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0113357.].

Epidemiology of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi in changing landscapes.

Within the past two decades, incidence of human cases of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has increased markedly. P. knowlesi is now the most common cause of human malaria in Malaysia and threatens to undermine malaria control programmes across Southeast Asia. The emergence of zoonotic malaria corresponds to a period of rapid deforestation within this region. These environmental changes impact the distribution and behaviour of the simian hosts, mosquito vector species and human populations, creating new opportunities for P. knowlesi transmission. Here, we review how landscape changes can drive zoonotic disease emergence, examine the extent and causes of these changes across Southeast and identify how these mechanisms may be impacting P. knowlesi dynamics. We review the current spatial epidemiology of reported P. knowlesi infections in people and assess how these demographic and environmental changes may lead to changes in transmission patterns. Finally, we identify opportunities to improve P. knowlesi surveillance and develop targeted ecological interventions within these landscapes.

Plasmodium knowlesi detection methods for human infections-Diagnosis and surveillance.

Within the overlapping geographical ranges of P. knowlesi monkey hosts and vectors in Southeast Asia, an estimated 1.5 billion people are considered at risk of infection. P. knowlesi can cause severe disease and death, the latter associated with delayed treatment occurring from misdiagnosis. Although microscopy is a sufficiently sensitive first-line tool for P. knowlesi detection for most low-level symptomatic infections, misdiagnosis as other Plasmodium species is common, and the majority of asymptomatic infections remain undetected. Current point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests demonstrate insufficient sensitivity and poor specificity for differentiating P. knowlesi from other Plasmodium species. Molecular tools including nested, real-time, and single-step PCR, and loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), are sensitive for P. knowlesi detection. However, higher cost and inability to provide the timely point-of-care diagnosis needed to guide appropriate clinical management has limited their routine use in most endemic clinical settings. P. knowlesi is likely underdiagnosed across the region, and improved diagnostic and surveillance tools are required. Reference laboratory molecular testing of malaria cases for both zoonotic and non-zoonotic Plasmodium species needs to be more widely implemented by National Malaria Control Programs across Southeast Asia to accurately identify the burden of zoonotic malaria and more precisely monitor the success of human-only malaria elimination programs. The implementation of specific serological tools for P. knowlesi would assist in determining the prevalence and distribution of asymptomatic and submicroscopic infections, the absence of transmission in certain areas, and associations with underlying land use change for future spatially targeted interventions.

Environmental and spatial risk factors for the larval habitats of Plasmodium knowlesi vectors in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo.

Land-use changes, such as deforestation and agriculture, can influence mosquito vector populations and malaria transmission. These land-use changes have been linked to increased incidence in human cases of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. This study investigates whether these associations are partially driven by fine-scale land-use changes creating more favourable aquatic breeding habitats for P. knowlesi anopheline vectors. Using aerial remote sensing data, we developed a sampling frame representative of all land use types within a major focus of P. knowlesi transmission. From 2015 to 2016 monthly longitudinal surveys of larval habitats were collected in randomly selected areas stratified by land use type. Additional remote sensing data on environmental variables, land cover and landscape configuration were assembled for the study site. Risk factor analyses were performed over multiple spatial scales to determine associations between environmental and spatial variables and anopheline larval presence. Habitat fragmentation (300 m), aspect (350 m), distance to rubber plantations (100 m) and Culex larval presence were identified as risk factors for Anopheles breeding. Additionally, models were fit to determine the presence of potential larval habitats within the areas surveyed and used to generate a time-series of monthly predictive maps. These results indicate that land-use change and topography influence the suitability of larval habitats, and may partially explain the link between P. knowlesi incidence and deforestation. The predictive maps, and identification of the spatial scales at which risk factors are most influential may aid spatio-temporally targeted vector control interventions.

Enhanced Health Facility Surveys to Support Malaria Control and Elimination across Different Transmission Settings in the Philippines.

Following substantial progress in malaria control in the Philippines, new surveillance approaches are needed to identify and target residual malaria transmission. This study evaluated an enhanced surveillance approach using rolling cross-sectional surveys of all health facility attendees augmented with molecular diagnostics and geolocation. Facility surveys were carried out in three sites representing different transmission intensities: Morong, Bataan (pre-elimination), Abra de Ilog, Occidental Mindoro (stable medium risk), and Rizal, Palawan (high risk, control). Only one rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-positive infection and no PCR confirmed infections were found in Bataan and Occidental Mindoro, suggesting the absence of transmission. In Palawan, the inclusion of all health facility attendees, regardless of symptoms, and use of molecular diagnostics identified 313 infected individuals in addition to 300 cases identified by routine screening of febrile patients with the RDT or microscopy. Of these, the majority (313/613) were subpatent infections and only detected using molecular methods. Simultaneous collection of GPS coordinates on tablet-based applications allowed real-time mapping of malaria infections. Risk factor analysis showed higher risks in children and indigenous groups, with bed net use having a protective effect. Subpatent infections were more common in men and older age-groups. Overall, malaria risks were not associated with participants' classification, and some of the non-patient clinic attendees reported febrile illnesses (1.9%, 26/1,369), despite not seeking treatment, highlighting the widespread distribution of infection in communities. Together, these data illustrate the utility of health facility-based surveys to augment surveillance data to increase the probability of detecting infections in the wider community.

Achieving global malaria eradication in changing landscapes.

Land use and land cover changes, such as deforestation, agricultural expansion and urbanization, are one of the largest anthropogenic environmental changes globally. Recent initiatives to evaluate the feasibility of malaria eradication have highlighted impacts of landscape changes on malaria transmission and the potential of these changes to undermine malaria control and elimination efforts. Multisectoral approaches are needed to detect and minimize negative impacts of land use and land cover changes on malaria transmission while supporting development aiding malaria control, elimination and ultimately eradication. Pathways through which land use and land cover changes disrupt social and ecological systems to increase or decrease malaria risks are outlined, identifying priorities and opportunities for a global malaria eradication campaign. The impacts of land use and land cover changes on malaria transmission are complex and highly context-specific, with effects changing over time and space. Landscape changes are only one element of a complex development process with wider economic and social dimensions affecting human health and wellbeing. While deforestation and other landscape changes threaten to undermine malaria control efforts and have driven the emergence of zoonotic malaria, most of the malaria elimination successes have been underpinned by agricultural development and land management. Malaria eradication is not feasible without addressing these changing risks while, conversely, consideration of malaria impacts in land management decisions has the potential to significantly accelerate progress towards eradication. Multisectoral cooperation and approaches to linking malaria control and environmental science, such as conducting locally relevant ecological monitoring, integrating landscape data into malaria surveillance systems and designing environmental management strategies to reduce malaria burdens, are essential to achieve malaria eradication.

Emergence of Undetectable Malaria Parasites: A Threat under the Radar amid the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) play a critical role in malaria diagnosis and control. The emergence of Plasmodium falciparum parasites that can evade detection by RDTs threatens control and elimination efforts. These parasites lack or have altered genes encoding histidine-rich proteins (HRPs) 2 and 3, the antigens recognized by HRP2-based RDTs. Surveillance of such parasites is dependent on identifying false-negative RDT results among suspected malaria cases, a task made more challenging during the current pandemic because of the overlap of symptoms between malaria and COVID-19, particularly in areas of low malaria transmission. Here, we share our perspective on the emergence of P. falciparum parasites lacking HRP2 and HRP3, and the surveillance needed to identify them amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Natural Human Infections With Plasmodium cynomolgi and Other Malaria Species in an Elimination Setting in Sabah, Malaysia.

To determine the presence and species composition of malaria infections, we screened a subset of samples collected during a cross-sectional survey in Northern Sabah, Malaysia using highly sensitive molecular techniques. Results identified 54 asymptomatic submicroscopic malaria infections, including a large cluster of Plasmodium falciparum and 3 P. knowlesi infections. We additionally identified 2 monoinfections with the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium cynomolgi, both in individuals reporting no history of forest activities or contact with macaques. Results highlight the need for improved surveillance strategies to detect these infections and determine public health impacts.

Effect of different habitat types on abundance and biting times of Anopheles balabacensis Baisas (Diptera: Culicidae) in Kudat district of Sabah, Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the effect of five common habitat types on the diversity and abundance of Anopheles spp. and on the biting rate and time of Anopheles balabacensis (currently the only known vector for Plasmodium knowlesi in Sabah) at Paradason village, Kudat, Sabah. The habitats were forest edge, playground area, longhouse, oil palm plantation and shrub-bushes area. Sampling of Anopheles was done monthly using the human landing catch method in all habitat types for 14 months (October 2013 to December 2014, excluding June 2014). The Anopheles species were morphologically identified and subjected to PCR assay for the detection of Plasmodium parasites. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) were applied to test the variation in abundance and biting rates of An. balabacensis in different habitat types. RESULTS: A total of 1599 Anopheles specimens were collected in the village, of which about 90% were An. balabacensis. Anopheles balabacensis was present throughout the year and was the dominant Anopheles species in all habitat types. The shrub bushes habitat had the highest Anopheles species diversity while forest edge had the greatest number of Anopheles individuals caught. GLMM analysis indicated that An. balabacensis abundance was not affected by the type of habitats, and it was more active during the early and late night compared to predawn and dawn. PCR assay showed that 1.61% of the tested An. balabacensis were positive for malaria parasites, most of which were caught in oil palm estates and infected with one to two Plasmodium species. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of infected vectors in a range of habitats, including agricultural and farming areas, illustrates the potential for humans to be exposed to P. knowlesi outside forested areas. This finding contributes to a growing body of evidence implicating environmental changes due to deforestation, expansion of agricultural and farming areas, and development of human settlements near to forest fringes in the emergence of P. knowlesi in Sabah.

Environmental risk factors and exposure to the zoonotic malaria parasite Plasmodium knowlesi across northern Sabah, Malaysia: a population-based cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Land use changes disrupt ecosystems, altering the transmission of vector-borne diseases. These changes have been associated with increasing incidence of zoonotic malaria caused by Plasmodium knowlesi; however, the population-level distributions of infection and exposure remain unknown. We aimed to measure prevalence of serological exposure to P knowlesi and assess associated risk factors. METHODS: We did an environmentally stratified, population-based, cross-sectional survey across households in the Kudat, Kota Marudu, Pitas, and Ranau districts in northern Sabah, Malaysia, encompassing a range of ecologies. Using blood samples, the transmission intensity of P knowlesi and other malaria species was measured by specific antibody prevalence and infection detected using molecular methods. Proportions and configurations of land types were extracted from maps derived from satellite images; a data-mining approach was used to select variables. A Bayesian hierarchical model for P knowlesi seropositivity was developed, incorporating questionnaire data about individual and household-level risk factors with selected landscape factors. FINDINGS: Between Sept 17, 2015, and Dec 12, 2015, 10 100 individuals with a median age of 25 years (range 3 months to 105 years) were sampled from 2849 households in 180 villages. 5·1% (95% CI 4·8-5·4) were seropositive for P knowlesi, and marked historical decreases were observed in the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Nine Plasmodium spp infections were detected. Age, male sex, contact with macaques, forest use, and raised house construction were positively associated with P knowlesi exposure, whereas residing at higher geographical elevations and use of insecticide were protective. Agricultural and forest variables, such as proportions and fragmentation of land cover types, predicted exposure at different spatial scales from households. INTERPRETATION: Although few infections were detected, P knowlesi exposure was observed in all demographic groups and was associated with occupational factors. Results suggest that agricultural expansion and forest fragmentation affect P knowlesi exposure, supporting linkages between land use change and P knowlesi transmission. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, and Biotechnology and Biosciences Research Council.

Predictive analysis across spatial scales links zoonotic malaria to deforestation.

The complex transmission ecologies of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases pose challenges to their control, especially in changing landscapes. Human incidence of zoonotic malaria ( Plasmodium knowlesi) is associated with deforestation although mechanisms are unknown. Here, a novel application of a method for predicting disease occurrence that combines machine learning and statistics is used to identify the key spatial scales that define the relationship between zoonotic malaria cases and environmental change. Using data from satellite imagery, a case-control study, and a cross-sectional survey, predictive models of household-level occurrence of P. knowlesi were fitted with 16 variables summarized at 11 spatial scales simultaneously. The method identified a strong and well-defined peak of predictive influence of the proportion of cleared land within 1 km of households on P. knowlesi occurrence. Aspect (1 and 2 km), slope (0.5 km) and canopy regrowth (0.5 km) were important at small scales. By contrast, fragmentation of deforested areas influenced P. knowlesi occurrence probability most strongly at large scales (4 and 5 km). The identification of these spatial scales narrows the field of plausible mechanisms that connect land use change and P. knowlesi, allowing for the refinement of disease occurrence predictions and the design of spatially-targeted interventions.

Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale infections and their association with common red blood cell polymorphisms in a highly endemic area of Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium ovale and Plasmodium malariae infections are scarcely studied in sub-Saharan Africa, where the Plasmodium falciparum species predominates. The objective of this study is to investigate the prevalence of P. ovale and P. malariae infections and their relationship with common red blood cell polymorphisms in a cohort of 509 individuals from Uganda. METHODS: Three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in individuals of 1-10 and >20 y of age from the Apac district at baseline and 6 and 16 weeks after drug treatment. Malaria infections were assessed by polymerase chain reaction and genotyping was performed for the sickle-cell allele, α-thalassaemia and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase. RESULTS: At baseline, the prevalence of infection was 7.5%, 12.6% and 57.4% for P. ovale, P. malariae and P. falciparum species, respectively. Co-infections were present in 14.1% of individuals, all including P. falciparum parasites. In children 1-5 y of age, the prevalence of P. ovale mono-infections increased significantly from 1.7% to 7.3% over time (p=0.004) while the prevalence of P. malariae and P. falciparum infections declined significantly during this study. After adjusting for confounding and multiple testing, only α-thalassaemia had a statistically significant increase in the odds of P. falciparum infections (odds ratio 1.93 [95% confidence interval 1.26 to 2.94]). CONCLUSIONS: Common red blood cell polymorphisms do not show strong effects on mild Plasmodium infections in this Ugandan population. To understand the extent of this result, similar studies should be carried out in other populations using larger cohorts.