Accuracy of clinical predictions of prognosis at the end-of-life: evidence from routinely collected data in urgent care records.

BACKGROUND: The accuracy of prognostication has important implications for patients, families, and health services since it may be linked to clinical decision-making, patient experience and outcomes and resource allocation. Study aim is to evaluate the accuracy of temporal predictions of survival in patients with cancer, dementia, heart, or respiratory disease. METHODS: Accuracy of clinical prediction was evaluated using retrospective, observational cohort study of 98,187 individuals with a Coordinate My Care record, the Electronic Palliative Care Coordination System serving London, 2010-2020. The survival times of patients were summarised using median and interquartile ranges. Kaplan Meier survival curves were created to describe and compare survival across prognostic categories and disease trajectories. The extent of agreement between estimated and actual prognosis was quantified using linear weighted Kappa statistic. RESULTS: Overall, 3% were predicted to live "days"; 13% "weeks"; 28% "months"; and 56% "year/years". The agreement between estimated and actual prognosis using linear weighted Kappa statistic was highest for patients with dementia/frailty (0.75) and cancer (0.73). Clinicians' estimates were able to discriminate (log-rank p < 0.001) between groups of patients with differing survival prospects. Across all disease groups, the accuracy of survival estimates was high for patients who were likely to live for fewer than 14 days (74% accuracy) or for more than one year (83% accuracy), but less accurate at predicting survival of "weeks" or "months" (32% accuracy). CONCLUSION: Clinicians are good at identifying individuals who will die imminently and those who will live for much longer. The accuracy of prognostication for these time frames differs across major disease categories, but remains acceptable even in non-cancer patients, including patients with dementia. Advance Care Planning and timely access to palliative care based on individual patient needs may be beneficial for those where there is significant prognostic uncertainty; those who are neither imminently dying nor expected to live for "years".

Delivery Models and Health Economics of Supportive Care Services in England: A Multicentre Analysis.

AIMS: Improvements in cancer treatment have led to more people living with and beyond cancer. These patients have symptom and support needs unmet by current services. The development of enhanced supportive care (ESC) services may meet the longitudinal care needs of these patients, including at the end of life. This study aimed to determine the impact and health economic benefits of ESC for patients living with treatable but not curable cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective observational evaluation was undertaken over 12 months across eight cancer centres in England. ESC service design and costs were recorded. Data relating to patients' symptom burden were collected using the Integrated Palliative Care Outcome Scale (IPOS). For patients in the last year of life, secondary care use was compared against an NHS England published benchmark. RESULTS: In total, 4594 patients were seen by ESC services, of whom 1061 died during follow-up. Mean IPOS scores improved across all tumour groups. In total, £1,676,044 was spent delivering ESC across the eight centres. Reductions in secondary care usage for the 1061 patients who died saved a total of £8,490,581. CONCLUSIONS: People living with cancer suffer with complex and unmet needs. ESC services appear to be effective at supporting these vulnerable people and significantly reduce the costs of their care.

Managing uncertain recovery for patients nearing the end of life in hospital: a mixed-methods feasibility cluster randomised controlled trial of the AMBER care bundle.

BACKGROUND: The AMBER (Assessment, Management, Best Practice, Engagement, Recovery Uncertain) care bundle is a complex intervention used in UK hospitals to support patients with uncertain recovery. However, it has yet to be evaluated in a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to identify potential benefits or harms. The aim of this trial was to investigate the feasibility of a cluster RCT of the AMBER care bundle. METHODS: This is a prospective mixed-methods feasibility cluster RCT. Quantitative data collected from patients (or proxies if patients lack capacity) were used (i) to examine recruitment, retention and follow-up rates; (ii) to test data collection tools for the trial and determine their optimum timing; (iii) to test methods to identify the use of financial resources; and (iv) to explore the acceptability of study procedures for health professionals and patients. Descriptive statistical analyses and thematic analysis used the framework approach. RESULTS: In total, 894 patients were screened, of whom 220 were eligible and 19 of those eligible (8.6%) declined to participate. Recruitment to the control arm was challenging. Of the 728 patients screened for that arm, 647 (88.9%) were excluded. Overall, 65 patients were recruited (81.3% of the recruitment target of 80). Overall, many were elderly (≥80 years, 46.2%, n = 30, mean = 77.8 years, standard deviation [SD] = 12.3 years). Over half (53.8%) had a non-cancer diagnosis, with a mean of 2.3 co-morbidities; 24.6% patients (n = 16) died during their hospital stay and 35.4% (n = 23) within 100 days of discharge. In both trial arms, baseline IPOS subscale scores identified moderate patient anxiety (control: mean 13.3, SD 4.8; intervention: mean 13.3, SD 5.1), and howRwe identified a good care experience (control: mean 13.1, SD 2.5; intervention: mean 11.5, SD 2.1). Collecting quantitative service use and quality of life data was feasible. No patient participants regarded study involvement negatively. Focus groups with health professionals identified concerns regarding (i) the subjectivity of the intervention's eligibility criteria, (ii) the need to prognosticate to identify potential patients and (iii) consent procedures and the length of the questionnaire. CONCLUSIONS: A full trial of the AMBER care bundle is technically feasible but impractical due to fundamental issues in operationalising the intervention's eligibility criteria, which prevents optimal recruitment. Since this complex intervention continues to be used in clinical care and advocated in policy, alternative research approaches must be considered and tested. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) Register, ISRCTN36040085 .

Opioid genetics: the key to personalized pain control?

There are now several strong opioids available to choose from for the relief of moderate to severe pain. On a population level, there is no difference in terms of analgesic efficacy or adverse reactions between these drugs; however, on an individual level there is marked variation in response to a given opioid. The genetic influences to this variation are complex, and although current research has shown some promising results, these have not been replicated across larger studies and as such the ultimate aim of personalized prescribing remains elusive. If personalized prescribing could be achieved this would have a major impact at an individual level to facilitate safe, effective and rapid symptom control. This review presents some of the recent positive advances in opioid pharmacogenetic studies, focusing on associations between candidate genes and the three main elements of opioid response: analgesic, upper gastrointestinal and central adverse reactions.

Evolving knowledge of opioid genetics in cancer pain.

Inter-individual variation in response to opioids for cancer pain is a well-established phenomenon. Variation occurs in the dose of opioid required, the analgesic efficacy of the opioid and also in the side-effects experienced by the individual taking the drug. To date, no clinical factor has been identified that can reliably explain or predict such variation. In recent years there has been growing interest in the possibility that genetic factors may play a role in the variability in opioid response. The aims of this review are to present the evidence supporting pharmacogenetic research in this area, to evaluate some of the studies and results that have been published to date and to present some of the challenges for future research in this area.

The effect of duration of eye contact on American college students' attributions of state, trait, and test anxiety.

Male and female US college students were randomly assigned to one of six groups, in which they viewed a 60-s videotape. The content of the tape was derived from the factorial combination of sex of model on the tape and duration of eye contact (5 s, 30 s or 50 s) maintained by the model with an interviewer. After viewing the tape, participants completed three inventories as they thought the model in the tape had viewed would. The inventories measured state, trait, and test anxiety. The results showed that, as eye contact maintained by the model increased, the model was judged to have less state anxiety, less trait anxiety, and less test anxiety. This effect was more pronounced for the female model than for the male model. The data extended previous experimental and correlational findings that, as eye contact increases, an individual is judged more positively. Also, the results show that these positive attributions are made with respect to both situational and dispositional personality characteristics.

Attributions of self-esteem as a function of duration of eye contact.

American male and female college students who were randomly assigned to one of six groups viewed a 60-s videotape. The content of the tape was derived from the factorial combination of sex of model (both American and White) on the tape with duration of eye contact (5 s, 30 s, or 50 s) maintained by the model with an interviewer. After viewing the tape, the subjects completed the Multidimensional Self-Esteem Inventory (O'Brien & Epstein, 1988) as they thought the model in the tape would. For all 10 self-esteem component scales, scores significantly increased as amount of eye contact increased. For 7 of the 10 scales, self-esteem scores for the female model were higher than those for the male model. The data generally extend and support previous research demonstrating that, as eye contact increases between Americans, American observers rate them more favorably.