RECONSTRUCTION OF THE RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATION OF THE TERRITORY OF UKRAINE BY IODINE-131 DURING INITIAL PERIOD OF THE CHORNOBYL ACCIDENT USING THE RESULTS FROM NUMERICAL MODEL WRF. / REKONSTRUKTsIIa RADIOAKTYVNOGO ZABRUDNENNIa TERYTORIÏ UKRAÏNY IODOM-131 V POChATKOVYI PERIOD ChORNOBYL'S'KOÏ AVARIÏ Z VYKORYSTANNIaM ChYSEL'NOÏ MODELI WRF.

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct the 131I activity concentrations in air and 131I ground deposition densities from 26 April to7 May 1986 from the radioactivity release after the Chornobyl accident in the settlements of Ukraine using themesoscale radionuclides atmospheric transport model LEDI and meteorological information from the numericalweather forecast model WRF and to compare the obtained results with those calculated previously as well as withavailable measurements of 131I activity in soil.Object of research: the near-ground layer of the atmosphere and the surface of the territory of Ukraine radioactively contaminated as a result of the Chornobyl accident.Materials and methods of research. The dispersion of 131I in the atmosphere and deposition on the ground surfacein Ukraine were calculated using the Lagrangian-Eulerian diffusion model LEDI. The detailed fields of meteorological parameters calculated using the mesoscale weather forecast model WRF, which was adapted for the territory ofUkraine, were used as input data for the LEDI model. RESULTS: The 131I daily-average activity concentrations in the surface air and 131I daily ground deposition densitiesfrom 26 April to 7 May 1986 were calculated using the up-to-date mesoscale model of numerical weather forecastWRF for 30,352 settlements in entire Ukraine, including 1,263 settlements in Kyiv, 1,717 - in Zhytomyr and 1,570 -in Chernihiv Oblasts. CONCLUSIONS: The method of mathematical modeling of the atmospheric transport of the radionuclides is combination with the up-to-date mesoscale model of numerical weather forecast WRF is a useful tool for reconstruction ofradioactive contamination of the air and the ground surface after the Chornobyl accident. Calculated in this study131I activity concentrations in air and 131I ground deposition densities were used to reconstruct the thyroid doses dueto 131I intake to the population of Ukraine.

Thyroid cancer risk in Belarus among children and adolescents exposed to radioiodine after the Chornobyl accident.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies showed an increased risk of thyroid cancer among children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines released after the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident, but the effects of screening, iodine deficiency, age at exposure and other factors on the dose-response are poorly understood. METHODS: We screened 11 970 individuals in Belarus aged 18 years or younger at the time of the accident who had estimated (131)I thyroid doses based on individual thyroid activity measurements and dosimetric data from questionnaires. The excess odds ratio per gray (EOR/Gy) was modelled using linear and linear-exponential functions. RESULTS: For thyroid doses <5 Gy, the dose-response was linear (n=85; EOR/Gy=2.15, 95% confidence interval: 0.81-5.47), but at higher doses the excess risk fell. The EOR/Gy was significantly increased among those with prior or screening-detected diffuse goiter, and larger for men than women, and for persons exposed before age 5 than those exposed between 5 and 18 years, although not statistically significant. A somewhat higher EOR/Gy was estimated for validated pre-screening cases. CONCLUSION: 10-15 years after the Chornobyl accident, thyroid cancer risk was significantly increased among individuals exposed to fallout as children or adolescents, but the risk appeared to be lower than in other Chornobyl studies and studies of childhood external irradiation.

Chernobyl-related thyroid cancer in children of Belarus: a case-control study.

The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on April 26, 1986, released approximately 2 EBq of 131I and other radioiodine isotopes that heavily contaminated southern Belarus. An increase in thyroid cancer reported in 1992 and attributed to the Chernobyl accident was challenged as possibly the result of intensive screening. We began a case-control study to test the hypothesis that the Chernobyl accident caused the increase in thyroid cancer. Records of childhood thyroid cancer in the national therapy centers in Minsk in 1992 yielded 107 individuals with confirmed pathology diagnoses and available for interview. Pathways to diagnosis were (1) routine endocrinological screening in 63, (2) presentation with enlarged or nodular thyroid in 25 and (3) an incidental finding in 19. Two sets of controls were chosen, one matched on pathway to diagnosis, the other representing the area of heavy fallout, both matched on age, sex and rural/urban residence in 1986. The 131I dose to the thyroid was estimated from ground deposition of 137Cs, ground deposition of 131I, a data bank of 1986 thyroid radiation measurements, questionnaires and interviews. Highly significant differences were observed between cases and controls (both sets) with respect to dose. The differences persisted within pathway to diagnosis, gender, age and year of diagnosis, and level of iodine in the soil, and were most marked in the southern portion of the Gomel region. The case-control comparisons indicate a strong relationship between thyroid cancer and estimated radiation dose from the Chernobyl accident.

Thyroid dose reconstruction for the population of Belarus after the Chernobyl accident.

An 131I environment transfer model--adapted for Belorussian conditions--was applied to estimate thyroid doses for different population groups. For this purpose the available data were analysed and the important radioecological parameters assessed i.e. (a) the elimination rate of 131I from grass due to weathering and growth dilution, (b) the initial interception of 131I by vegetation, (c) the transfer coefficient for 131I from grass to cow's milk, (d) the yield to pasture grass and (e) the milk consumption rate. Additionally, the influence of applied countermeasures has been taken into account, such as the interruption of locally produced milk consumption, and the appropriate correction factors have been estimated. As a result, the average age-dependent thyroid doses were assessed for the Belorussian population. The highest average doses in children (> 1 Gy) have been estimated for the Bragin, Khoiniki, Narovlia and Vetka raions of the Gomel oblast. The thyroid exposure tends to decrease from the southeastern (closest to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant areas) to the northwestern part of the republic. When comparing the assessed thyroid doses with estimates derived from direct 131I activity measurements in thyroids (for the locations with more than 15 direct measurements), the results agree fairly well. The model calculation may perhaps overestimate thyroid doses of the population residing in the settlements of the central and northern parts of Belarus, distant from the areas with direct measurements of 131I activities in soil, grass and milk. These thyroid dose estimates may serve as a basis for further epidemiological studies and risk analyses.

The feasibility of using 129I to reconstruct 131I deposition from the Chernobyl reactor accident.

Radioiodine released to the atmosphere from the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power station in the spring of 1986 resulted in large-scale thyroid-gland exposure of populations in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. Because of the short half life of 131I (8.04 d), adequate data on the intensities and patterns of iodine deposition were not collected, especially in the regions where the incidence of childhood-thyroid cancer is now increasing. Results are presented from a feasibility study that show that accelerator-mass-spectrometry measurements of 129I (half life 16 x 106 y) in soil can be used to reconstruct 131I-deposition density and thus help in the thyroid-dosimetry effort that is now urgently needed to support epidemiologic studies of childhood-thyroid cancer in the affected regions.