Foot and ankle problems in children and young people: a population-based cohort study.

The aim of this research was to describe the epidemiology, presentation and healthcare use in primary care for foot and ankle problems in children and young people (CYP) across England. We undertook a population-based cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database, a database of anonymised electronic health records from general practices across England. Data was accessed for all CYP aged 0-18 years presenting to their general practitioner between January 2015 and December 2021 with a foot and/or ankle problem. Consultation rates were calculated and used to estimate numbers of consultations in an average practice. Hierarchical Poisson regression estimated relative rates of consultations across sociodemographic groups and logistic regression evaluated factors associated with repeat consultations. A total of 416,137 patients had 687,753 foot and ankle events, of which the majority were categorised as "musculoskeletal" (34%) and "unspecified pain" (21%). Rates peaked at 601 consultations per 10,000 patient-years among males aged 10-14 years in 2018. An average practice might observe 132 (95% CI 110 to 155) consultations annually. Odds for repeat consultations were higher among those with pre-existing diagnoses including juvenile arthritis (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.03).    Conclusions: Consultations for foot and ankle problems were high among CYP, particularly males aged 10 to 14 years. These data can inform service provision to ensure CYP access appropriate health professionals for accurate diagnosis and treatment. What is Known: • Foot and ankle problems can have considerable impact on health-related quality of life in children and young people (CYP). • There is limited data describing the nature and frequency of foot and ankle problems in CYP. What is New: • Foot and ankle consultations were higher in English general practice among CYP aged 10 to 14 years compared to other age groups, and higher among males compared to females. • The high proportion of unspecified diagnoses and repeat consultations suggests there is need for greater integration between general practice and allied health professionals in community-based healthcare settings.

Prognosis of Patients With Neuropathic Low Back-Related Leg Pain: An Exploratory Study Using Prospective Data From UK Primary Care.

This prospective cohort study investigates the prognosis of patients with neuropathic low back-related leg pain consulting in UK primary care. Data from 511 patients were collected using standardised baseline clinical examinations (including magnetic resonance imaging scan findings), self-report questionnaires at baseline, 4 months, 12 months, and 3 years. Cases of possible neuropathic pain (NP) and persistent-NP were identified using either of 2 definitions: 1) clinical diagnosis of sciatica, 2) self-report version of leeds assessment for neurological symptoms and signs (s-LANSS). Mixed-effects models compared pain intensity (highest of mean leg or mean back pain [0-10 Numerical Rating Scale]) over 3-years between persistent-NP versus non-persistent-NP based on 1) clinical diagnosis, 2) s-LANSS. Logistic regression examined associations between potential prognostic factors and persistent-NP at 4 months based on the 2 NP definitions. At 4-months, using both definitions: 1) approximately 4 out of 10 patients had persistent-NP, 2) mean pain intensity was higher for patients with persistent-NP at all follow-up points compared to those without, 3) only pain self-efficacy was significantly associated with persistent-NP (s-LANSS: OR .98, sciatica: .98), but it did not predict cases of persistent-NP in either multivariable model. Based on factors routinely collected from self-report and clinical examination, it was not possible to predict persistent-NP in this population. PERSPECTIVE: This study provides evidence that neuropathic back-related leg pain in patients consulting in primary care is not always persistent. Patients with persistent neuropathic pain had worse outcomes than those without. Neither leg pain intensity, pain self-efficacy nor MRI scan findings predicted cases of persistent neuropathic pain in this patient population.

Development and External Validation of Individualized Prediction Models for Pain Intensity Outcomes in Patients With Neck Pain, Low Back Pain, or Both in Primary Care Settings.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to develop and externally validate multivariable prediction models for future pain intensity outcomes to inform targeted interventions for patients with neck or low back pain in primary care settings. METHODS: Model development data were obtained from a group of 679 adults with neck or low back pain who consulted a participating United Kingdom general practice. Predictors included self-report items regarding pain severity and impact from the STarT MSK Tool. Pain intensity at 2 and 6 months was modeled separately for continuous and dichotomized outcomes using linear and logistic regression, respectively. External validation of all models was conducted in a separate group of 586 patients recruited from a similar population with patients' predictor information collected both at point of consultation and 2 to 4 weeks later using self-report questionnaires. Calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed separately using STarT MSK Tool data from both time points to assess differences in predictive performance. RESULTS: Pain intensity and patients reporting their condition would last a long time contributed most to predictions of future pain intensity conditional on other variables. On external validation, models were reasonably well calibrated on average when using tool measurements taken 2 to 4 weeks after consultation (calibration slope = 0.848 [95% CI = 0.767 to 0.928] for 2-month pain intensity score), but performance was poor using point-of-consultation tool data (calibration slope for 2-month pain intensity score of 0.650 [95% CI = 0.549 to 0.750]). CONCLUSION: Model predictive accuracy was good when predictors were measured 2 to 4 weeks after primary care consultation, but poor when measured at the point of consultation. Future research will explore whether additional, nonmodifiable predictors improve point-of-consultation predictive performance. IMPACT: External validation demonstrated that these individualized prediction models were not sufficiently accurate to recommend their use in clinical practice. Further research is required to improve performance through inclusion of additional nonmodifiable risk factors.

Facilitation of non-indigenous ascidian by marine eco-engineering interventions at an urban site.

Marine artificial structures often support lower native species diversity and more non-indigenous species (NIS), but adding complex habitat and using bioreceptive materials have the potential to mitigate these impacts. Here, the interacting effects of structural complexity (flat, complex with pits) and concrete mixture (standard, or with oyster shell or vermiculite aggregate) on recruitment were assessed at two intertidal levels at an urban site. Complex tiles had less green algal cover, oyster shell mixtures had less brown (Ralfsia sp.) algal cover. At a low tidal elevation, the non-indigenous ascidian Styela plicata dominated complex tiles. Additionally, mixtures with oyster shell supported higher total cover of sessile species, and a higher cover of S. plicata. There were no effects of complexity or mixture on biofilm communities and native and NIS richness. Overall, these results suggest that habitat complexity and some bioreceptive materials may facilitate colonisation by a dominant invertebrate invader on artificial structures.

Symptom patterns and life with post-acute COVID-19 in children aged 8-17 years: a mixed-methods study protocol.

BACKGROUND: While there is a substantial body of knowledge about acute COVID-19, less is known about long-COVID, where symptoms continue beyond 4 weeks. AIM: To describe longer-term effects of COVID-19 infection in children and young people (CYP) and identify their needs in relation to long-COVID. DESIGN & SETTING: This study comprises an observational prospective cohort study and a linked qualitative study, identifying participants aged 8-17 years in the West Midlands of England. METHOD: CYP will be invited to complete online questionnaires to monitor incidences and symptoms of COVID-19 over a 12-month period. CYP who have experienced long-term effects of COVID will be invited to interview, and those currently experiencing symptoms will be asked to document their experiences in a diary. Professionals who work with CYP will be invited to explore the impact of long-COVID on the wider experiences of CYP, in a focus group. Descriptive statistics will be used to describe the incidence and rates of resolution of symptoms, and comparisons will be made between exposed and non-exposed groups. Logistic regression models will be used to estimate associations between candidate predictors and the development of long-COVID, and linear regression will be used to estimate associations between candidate predictors. Qualitative data will be analysed thematically using the constant comparison method. CONCLUSION: This study will describe features and symptoms of long-COVID and explore the impact of long-COVID within the lives of CYP and their families, to provide better understanding of long-COVID and inform clinical practice.

Identification and Characterisation of Trajectories of Sickness Absence Due to Musculoskeletal Pain: A 1-Year Population-based Study.

Purpose This study aimed to identify trajectories of sickness absence in workers on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders and explore the association between these trajectories and established prognostic factors for sickness absence. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study of 549 workers (56% women, aged 18-67 years) on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders in Norway in 2018-2019. Sickness absence data were collected from the Norwegian sick leave registry and prognostic factors via self-reported baseline questionnaires. We used group-based trajectory modelling to define the different trajectories of sickness absence spanning a 1-year period. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for prognostic factors associated with the identified trajectory groups. Results We identified six distinct trajectories of sickness absence over 1 year: 'fast decrease' (27% of the cohort): 'moderate decrease' (22%); 'slow decrease' (12%); 'u-shape' (7%); 'persistent moderate' (13%); and 'persistent high' (18%). Prognostic factors, such as previous sickness absence days, return-to-work expectancy, workability, multisite pain, and health scores, differentiated between the sickness absence trajectories (all P < 0.05). Negative return-to-work expectancy was associated with the three trajectory groups with the highest number of sickness absence days ('slow decrease', 'persistent moderate', and 'persistent high'). Conclusions This is the first study to explore the association of return-to-work expectancy with trajectories of sickness absence. Our findings highlight different patterns of sickness absence and the complex range of prognostic factors. These findings have implications for secondary and tertiary prevention strategies for work absence in workers with musculoskeletal disorders.

Comparison of health-care utilization, costs and health-related quality of life across the subgroups defined by the Keele STarT MSK Tool.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe and compare health economic outcomes [health-care utilization and costs, work outcomes, and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L)] in patients classified into different levels-of-risk subgroups by the Keele STarT MSK Tool. METHODS: Data on health-care utilization, costs and EQ-5D-5L were collected from a health-care perspective within a primary care prospective observational cohort study. Patients presenting with one (or more) of the five most common musculoskeletal pain presentations were included: back, neck, shoulder, knee or multi-site pain. Participants at low, medium and high risk of persistent disabling pain were compared in relation to mean health-care utilization and costs, health-related quality of life, and employment status. Regression analysis was used to estimate costs. RESULTS: Over 6 months, the mean (s.d.) total health-care (National Health Service and private) costs associated with the low, medium, and high-risk subgroups were £132.92 (167.88), £279.32 (462.98) and £476.07 (716.44), respectively. Mean health-related quality of life over the 6-month period was lower and more people changed their employment status in the high-risk subgroup compared with the medium- and low-risk subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that subgroups of people with different levels of risk for poor musculoskeletal pain outcomes also have different levels of health-care utilization, health-care costs, health-related quality of life, and work outcomes. The findings show that the STarT MSK Tool not only identifies those at risk of a poorer outcome, but also those who will have more health-care visits and incur higher costs.

Risk-based stratified primary care for common musculoskeletal pain presentations (STarT MSK): a cluster-randomised, controlled trial.

Background: Risk-based stratified care shows clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness versus usual primary care for non-specific low back pain but is untested for other common musculoskeletal disorders. We aimed to test the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of point-of-care risk stratification (using Keele's STarT MSK Tool and risk-matched treatments) versus usual care for the five most common musculoskeletal presentations (back, neck, knee, shoulder, and multi-site pain). Methods: In this cluster-randomised, controlled trial in UK primary care with embedded qualitative and health economic studies we recruited patients from 24 general practices in the West Midlands region of England. Eligible patients were those aged 18 years or older whose general practitioner (GP) confirmed a consultation for a musculoskeletal presentation. General practices that consented to participate via a representative of the cluster were randomly assigned (1:1) to intervention or usual care, using stratified block randomisation. Researchers involved in data collection, outcome data entry, and statistical analysis were masked at both the cluster and individual participant level. Participating patients were told the study was examining GP treatment of common aches and pains and were not aware they were in a randomised trial. GPs in practices allocated to the intervention group were supported to deliver risk-based stratified care using a bespoke computer-based template, including the risk-stratification tool, and risk-matched treatment options for patients at low, medium, or high risk of poor disability or pain outcomes. There were 15 risk-matched treatment options. In the usual care group, patients with musculoskeletal pain consulting their GP received treatment as usual, typically including advice and education, medication, referral for investigations or tests, or referral to other services. The primary outcome was time-averaged pain intensity over 6 months. All analyses were done by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN15366334. Results: Between May 1, 2018, and April 30, 2019, 104 GPs from 24 practices (12 per study group) identified 2494 patients with musculoskeletal pain. 1211 (49%) participants consented to questionnaires (534 in the intervention group and 677 in the usual care group), with 1070 (88%) completing the follow-up questionnaire at 6 months. We found no significant difference in time-averaged pain intensity (mean(SD) mean 4·4 [SD 2·3] in the intervention group vs 4·6 [2·5] in the control group; adjusted mean difference -0·16, 95% CI -0·65 to 0·34) or in standardised function score (mean -0·06 [SD 0·94] in the intervention group vs 0·05 [1·04]; adjusted mean difference -0·07, 95% CI -0·22 to 0·08). No serious adverse events or adverse events were reported. Risk stratification received positive patient and clinician feedback. Interpretation: Risk stratification for patients in primary care with common musculoskeletal presentations did not lead to significant improvements in pain or function, although some aspects of GP decision making were affected, and GP and patients had positive experiences. The costs of risk-based stratified care were similar to usual care, and such a strategy only offers marginal changes in cost-effectiveness outcomes. The clinical implications from this trial are largely inconclusive. Funding: National Institute for Health Research.

Leveraging Comprehensive Cancer Registry Data to Enable a Broad Range of Research, Audit and Patient Support Activities.

Traditional cancer registries have often been siloed efforts, established by single groups with limited objectives. There is the potential for registry data to support a broad range of research, audit and education initiatives. Here, we describe the establishment of a series of comprehensive cancer registries across the spectrum of common solid cancers. The experience and learnings of each registry team as they develop, implement and then use collected data for a range of purposes, that informs the conduct and output of other registries in a virtuous cycle. Each registry is multi-site, multi-disciplinary and aims to collect data of maximal interest and value to a broad range of enquiry, which would be accessible to any researcher with a high-quality proposal. Lessons learnt include the need for careful and continuous curation of data fields, with regular database updates, and the need for a continued focus on data quality. The registry data as a standalone resource has supported numerous projects, but linkage with external datasets with patients in common has enhanced the audit and research potential. Multiple projects have linked registry data with matched tissue specimens to support prognostic and predictive biomarker studies, both validation and discovery. Registry-based biomarker trials have been successfully supported, generating novel and practice-changing data. Registry-based clinical trials, particularly randomised studies exploring the optimal use of available therapy options are now complementing the research conducted in traditional clinical trials. More recent projects supported by the registries include health economic studies, personalised patient education material, and increased consumer engagement, including consumer entered data.

ECHO+: Improving access to hepatitis C care within Indigenous communities in Alberta, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Indigenous populations experience higher rates of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in Canada. The Extension for Community Health Outcomes+ (ECHO+) telehealth model was implemented in Alberta to support HCV screening and treatment, using Zoom technology to support Indigenous patient access to specialist care closer to home. Our goal was to expand this program to more Indigenous communities in Alberta, using various Indigenous-led or co-designed methods. METHODS: The ECHO+ team implemented a Two-Eyed Seeing framework, incorporating Indigenous wholistic approaches alongside Western treatment. This approach works with principles of respect, reciprocity, and relationality. The ECHO+ team identified Indigenous-specific challenges, including access to liver specialist care, HCV awareness, stigma, barriers to screening and lack of culturally relevant approaches. RESULTS: Access to HCV care via this program significantly increased HCV antiviral use in the past 5 years. Key lessons learned include Indigenous-led relationship building and development of project outputs in response to community needs influences impact and increases relevant changes increasing access to HCV care. Implementation of ECHO+ was carried out through biweekly telehealth sessions, problem solving in partnership with Indigenous communities, increased HCV awareness, and flexibility resulting from the impacts of COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Improving Indigenous patient lives and reducing inequity requires supporting local primary health care providers to create and sustain integrated HCV prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and support services within a culturally safe and reciprocal model. ECHO+ uses telehealth and culturally appropriate methodology and interventions alongside multiple stakeholder collaborations to improve health outcomes for HCV.

Stratifying workers on sick leave due to musculoskeletal pain: translation, cross-cultural adaptation and construct validity of the Norwegian Keele STarT MSK tool.

OBJECTIVES: Stratified care using prognostic models to estimate the risk profiles of patients has been increasing. A refined version of the popular STarT Back tool, the Keele STarT MSK tool, is a newly developed model for matched treatment across a wide range of musculoskeletal pain presentations. The aim of this study was to translate and culturally adapt the Keele STarT MSK tool into Norwegian, examine its construct validity and assess the representativeness of the included sample. METHODS: The Keele STarT MSK tool was formally translated into Norwegian following a multistep approach of forward and backward translation. A pre-final version was tested in 42 patients. Minor changes were implemented. To assess its construct validity, an online survey was conducted among workers aged 18-67 years who were on sick leave (>4 weeks) due to musculoskeletal disorders. Construct validity was evaluated in terms of convergent and discriminant validity using Pearson's correlation coefficient, and known-group validity by comparing risk subgroups as suggested by the COSMIN checklist. The representativeness of the sample was assessed by comparing demographic and sick leave information of participants to eligible non-participants (n=168,137). RESULTS: A representative sample of 549 workers participated in the validity assessment; 74 participants (13.5%) were categorised as low risk, 314 (57.2%) as medium risk and 161 (29.3%) as high risk. The construct validity was found sufficient, with 90.9% and 75.0% of the pre-defined hypotheses confirmed for convergent and discriminant validity, and known-group validity, respectively. Floor or ceiling effects were not found. CONCLUSIONS: The Keele STarT MSK tool was successfully translated into Norwegian. The construct validity of the tool was acceptable in a representative cohort of workers on sick leave as a result of musculoskeletal pain. However, the analyses raised concerns as to whether one of the questions captures the construct it is intended to measure.

Chronic widespread pain in children and adolescents presenting in primary care: prevalence and associated risk factors.

ABSTRACT: A significant proportion of children/adolescents report chronic widespread pain (CWP), but little is known about clinically relevant CWP or what factors lead to onset in this population. Objectives were to report the primary care consultation prevalence of CWP and investigate risk factors associated with onset. A validated algorithm for identifying CWP status from primary care electronic healthcare records was applied to a child or adolescent population (aged 8-18 years). The algorithm records patients who have recurrent pain consultations (axial skeleton and upper or lower limbs) or those with a nonspecific generalised pain disorder (eg, fibromyalgia). Prevalence was described, and a nested case-control study was established to identify risk factors associated with CWP onset using logistic regression producing odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Two hundred seventy-one children or adolescents were identified with CWP, resulting in a 5-year consultation prevalence of 3.19%. Risk factors significantly associated with CWP onset were as follows: mental health (eg, anxiety/neurosis consultations), neurological (eg, headaches), genitourinary (eg, cystitis), gastrointestinal (eg, abdominal pain), and throat problems (eg, sore throats). Children or adolescents with 1 or 2 risk factors (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.6-2.9) or 3 or more risk factors (OR 9.17, 95% CI 5.9-14.3) were at significantly increased odds of CWP onset compared with those with none. Findings show a significant proportion of the child or adolescent primary care population has CWP. Most risk factors involved pain-related conditions, suggesting potential pathways of pain development. Further work is now needed to better understand the development of CWP in children and adolescents.

Refinement and validation of a tool for stratifying patients with musculoskeletal pain.

BACKGROUND: Patients with musculoskeletal pain in different body sites share common prognostic factors. Using prognosis to stratify and treatment match can be clinically and cost-effective. We aimed to refine and validate the Keele STarT MSK Tool for prognostic stratification of musculoskeletal pain patients. METHODS: Tool refinement and validity was tested in a prospective cohort study, and external validity examined in a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT). Study population comprised 2,414 adults visiting U.K. primary care with back, neck, knee, shoulder or multisite pain returning postal questionnaires (cohort: 1,890 [40% response]; trial: 524). Cohort baseline questionnaires included a draft tool plus refinement items. Trial baseline questionnaires included the Keele STarT MSK Tool. Physical health (SF-36 Physical Component Score [PCS]) and pain intensity were assessed at 2- and 6-month cohort follow-up; pain intensity was measured at 6-month trial follow-up. RESULTS: The tool was refined by replacing (3), adding (3) and removing (2) items, resulting in a 10-item tool. Model fit (R2 ) was 0.422 and 0.430 and discrimination (c statistic) 0.839 and 0.822 for predicting 6-month cohort PCS and pain (respectively). The tool classified 24.9% of cohort participants at low, 41.7% medium and 33.4% high risk, clearly discriminating between subgroups. The tool demonstrated model fit of 0.224 and discrimination 0.73 in trial participants. Multiple imputation confirmed robustness of findings. CONCLUSIONS: The Keele STarT MSK Tool demonstrates good validity and acceptable predictive performance and clearly identifies groups of musculoskeletal pain patients with different characteristics and prognosis. Using prognostic information for stratification and treatment matching may be clinically/cost-effective. SIGNIFICANCE: The paper presents the first musculoskeletal pain prognostic stratification tool specifically for use among all primary care patients with the five most common musculoskeletal pain presentations (back, neck, knee, shoulder or multisite pain). The Keele STarT MSK Tool identifies groups of musculoskeletal pain patients with clearly different characteristics and prognosis. Using this tool for stratification and treatment matching may be clinically and cost-effective.

Patient partners' perspectives of meaningful engagement in synthesis reviews: A patient-oriented rapid review.

BACKGROUND: A growing literature describes promising practices for patient-oriented research (POR) generally; however, those for systematic reviews are largely derived through the lens of a researcher. This rapid review sought to understand meaningful engagement in synthesis reviews from the patient partner (PP) perspective. DESIGN: The review team comprised PPs, librarians, SCPOR staff and academic faculty. We searched OVID MEDLINE and EMBASE, ProQuest Nursing and Allied Health, and core POR websites. Documents describing PP reflections on their involvement in synthesis reviews were included. Screening and data extraction were conducted by two independent reviewers. Thematic analysis was employed to identify themes in the data regarding PP perceptions of engagement in synthesis reviews. RESULTS: The literature search yielded 1386 citations. Eight journal articles and one blog post were included. Seven studies focused on conducting systematic reviews on a particular health or patient-related topic to which PP involvement was an important part and two studies focused specifically on the experience of including PP in synthesis reviews. PPs engaged in the review process through a variety of mechanisms, levels and stages of the review process. Three major themes emerged from the data: (1) foster partnerships through team development, (2) provide opportunities for outcomes valued by PP and (3) strengthen the research endeavour. CONCLUSION: Fostering partnerships through team development is foundational for meaningful engagement in synthesis reviews. It requires sensitively balancing of various needs (eg overburdening with contributions). Meaningful involvement in reviews has both personal and research benefits. PATIENT INVOLVEMENT: Patient partners were equal collaborators in all aspects of the review.

Are psychological symptoms a risk factor for musculoskeletal pain in adolescents?

Adolescent musculoskeletal pain is common and is associated with musculoskeletal pain in adulthood. Psychological symptoms, also common in adolescence, have been shown to be associated with musculoskeletal pain, but the current evidence is mixed and may be dependent on effect modifiers. This study investigated whether adolescents with psychological symptoms (internalizing and externalizing constructs) at age 13 years were at higher odds for musculoskeletal pain at age 17 years and whether the associations were modified by pubertal status and sex. A prospective cohort design examined data on 3865 adolescents from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Associations between baseline (aged 13 years) internalizing and externalizing symptoms and musculoskeletal pain at follow-up (aged 17 years) were investigated using logistic regression producing odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). In total 43.1% of adolescents reported musculoskeletal pain at follow-up. Externalizing symptoms at baseline increased the odds of musculoskeletal pain (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.28, 2.20), and internalizing symptoms demonstrated a non-significant increase (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.98, 1.62). Effect modification analysis showed an increased effect dependent on pubertal status.Conclusion: Adolescents with externalizing symptoms, and to some extent internalizing symptoms, are at increased odds of later musculoskeletal pain. Future research is now required to understand the reasons for these associations. What is Known: • Current evidence regarding the association between internalizing symptoms and externalizing symptoms and future musculoskeletal pain in adolescents is mixed. What is New: • This study found that adolescents with externalizing symptoms, and to some extent internalizing symptoms, are at increased odds for musculoskeletal pain, with an increased influence dependent on pubertal status. • These results are of interest for the development of timely preventative interventions designed to reduce the risk of musculoskeletal pain.

Estimating the population health burden of musculoskeletal conditions using primary care electronic health records.

OBJECTIVES: Better indicators from affordable, sustainable data sources are needed to monitor population burden of musculoskeletal conditions. We propose five indicators of musculoskeletal health and assessed if routinely available primary care electronic health records (EHR) can estimate population levels in musculoskeletal consulters. METHODS: We collected validated patient-reported measures of pain experience, function and health status through a local survey of adults (≥35 years) presenting to English general practices over 12 months for low back pain, shoulder pain, osteoarthritis and other regional musculoskeletal disorders. Using EHR data we derived and validated models for estimating population levels of five self-reported indicators: prevalence of high impact chronic pain, overall musculoskeletal health (based on Musculoskeletal Health Questionnaire), quality of life (based on EuroQoL health utility measure), and prevalence of moderate-to-severe low back pain and moderate-to-severe shoulder pain. We applied models to a national EHR database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) to obtain national estimates of each indicator for three successive years. RESULTS: The optimal models included recorded demographics, deprivation, consultation frequency, analgesic and antidepressant prescriptions, and multimorbidity. Applying models to national EHR, we estimated that 31.9% of adults (≥35 years) presenting with non-inflammatory musculoskeletal disorders in England in 2016/17 experienced high impact chronic pain. Estimated population health levels were worse in women, older aged and those in the most deprived neighbourhoods, and changed little over 3 years. CONCLUSION: National and subnational estimates for a range of subjective indicators of non-inflammatory musculoskeletal health conditions can be obtained using information from routine electronic health records.