Exploring the similarities and differences of burn registers globally: Results from a data dictionary comparison study.

INTRODUCTION: Pooling and comparing data from the existing global network of burn registers represents a powerful, yet untapped, opportunity to improve burn prevention and care. There have been no studies investigating whether registers are sufficiently similar to allow data comparisons. It is also not known what differences exist that could bias analyses. Understanding this information is essential prior to any future data sharing. The aim of this project was to compare the variables collected in countrywide and intercountry burn registers to understand their similarities and differences. METHODS: Register custodians were invited to participate and share their data dictionaries. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were compared to understand each register population. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the number of unique variables. Variables were classified into themes. Definition, method, timing of measurement, and response options were compared for a sample of register concepts. RESULTS: 13 burn registries participated in the study. Inclusion criteria varied between registers. Median number of variables per register was 94 (range 28 - 890), of which 24% (range 4.8 - 100%) were required to be collected. Six themes (patient information, admission details, injury, inpatient, outpatient, other) and 41 subthemes were identified. Register concepts of age and timing of injury show similarities in data collection. Intent, mechanism, inhalational injury, infection, and patient death show greater variation in measurement. CONCLUSIONS: We found some commonalities between registers and some differences. Commonalities would assist in any future efforts to pool and compare data between registers. Differences between registers could introduce selection and measurement bias, which needs to be addressed in any strategy aiming to facilitate burn register data sharing. We recommend the development of common data elements used in an international minimum data set for burn injuries, including standard definitions and methods of measurement, as the next step in achieving burn register data sharing.

An international RAND/UCLA expert panel to determine the optimal diagnosis and management of burn inhalation injury.

BACKGROUND: Burn inhalation injury (BII) is a major cause of burn-related mortality and morbidity. Despite published practice guidelines, no consensus exists for the best strategies regarding diagnosis and management of BII. A modified DELPHI study using the RAND/UCLA (University of California, Los Angeles) Appropriateness Method (RAM) systematically analysed the opinions of an expert panel. Expert opinion was combined with available evidence to determine what constitutes appropriate and inappropriate judgement in the diagnosis and management of BII. METHODS: A 15-person multidisciplinary panel comprised anaesthetists, intensivists and plastic surgeons involved in the clinical management of major burn patients adopted a modified Delphi approach using the RAM method. They rated the appropriateness of statements describing diagnostic and management options for BII on a Likert scale. A modified final survey comprising 140 statements was completed, subdivided into history and physical examination (20), investigations (39), airway management (5), systemic toxicity (23), invasive mechanical ventilation (29) and pharmacotherapy (24). Median appropriateness ratings and the disagreement index (DI) were calculated to classify statements as appropriate, uncertain, or inappropriate. RESULTS: Of 140 statements, 74 were rated as appropriate, 40 as uncertain and 26 as inappropriate. Initial intubation with ≥ 8.0 mm endotracheal tubes, lung protective ventilatory strategies, initial bronchoscopic lavage, serial bronchoscopic lavage for severe BII, nebulised heparin and salbutamol administration for moderate-severe BII and N-acetylcysteine for moderate BII were rated appropriate. Non-protective ventilatory strategies, high-frequency oscillatory ventilation, high-frequency percussive ventilation, prophylactic systemic antibiotics and corticosteroids were rated inappropriate. Experts disagreed (DI ≥ 1) on six statements, classified uncertain: the use of flexible fiberoptic bronchoscopy to guide fluid requirements (DI = 1.52), intubation with endotracheal tubes of internal diameter < 8.0 mm (DI = 1.19), use of airway pressure release ventilation modality (DI = 1.19) and nebulised 5000IU heparin, N-acetylcysteine and salbutamol for mild BII (DI = 1.52, 1.70, 1.36, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Burns experts mostly agreed on appropriate and inappropriate diagnostic and management criteria of BII as in published guidance. Uncertainty exists as to the optimal diagnosis and management of differing grades of severity of BII. Future research should investigate the accuracy of bronchoscopic grading of BII, the value of bronchial lavage in differing severity groups and the effectiveness of nebulised therapies in different severities of BII.

Exploring the similarities and differences of variables collected by burn registers globally: protocol for a data dictionary review study.

INTRODUCTION: Burn registers can provide high-quality clinical data that can be used for surveillance, research, planning service provision and clinical quality assessment. Many countrywide and intercountry burn registers now exist. The variables collected by burn registers are not standardised internationally. Few international burn register data comparisons are completed beyond basic morbidity and mortality statistics. Data comparisons across registers require analysis of homogenous variables. Little work has been done to understand whether burn registers have sufficiently similar variables to enable useful comparisons. The aim of this project is to compare the variables collected in countrywide and intercountry burn registers internationally to understand their similarities and differences. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Burn register custodians will be invited to participate in the study and to share their register data dictionaries. Study objectives are to compare patient inclusion and exclusion criteria of each participating burn register; determine which variables are collected by each register, and if variables are required or optional, identify common variable themes; and compare a sample of variables to understand how they are defined and measured. All variable names will be extracted from each register and common themes will be identified. Detailed information will be extracted for a sample of variables to give a deeper insight into similarities and differences between registers. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No patient data will be used in this project. Permission to use each register's data dictionary will be sought from respective register custodians. Results will be presented at international meetings and published in open access journals. These results will be of interest to register custodians and researchers wishing to explore international data comparisons, and countries wishing to establish their own burn register.

Using data to drive service improvement: false dawns and a promised land?

Increasing emphasis and expectation is being placed on the role of healthcare data in addressing the problems faced by the NHS. The ideal is to replace the current fragmented system of individual systems and registries with a universal, integrated data system that provides frontline staff with what they need while also allowing monitoring of services, intelligent population-based commissioning and the facilitation of quality improvement (QI) and research. With the recently published tender for the creation of a federated data platform (FDP) there is optimism that these aspirations are being addressed; however, concerns remain that the future use of healthcare data in the UK will not fulfil its potential if the current well-recognised shortcomings of existing systems and processes are not dealt with.

Surviving Burn Injury: Drivers of Length of Hospital Stay.

With a reduction in the mortality rate of burn patients, length of stay (LOS) has been increasingly adopted as an outcome measure. Some studies have attempted to identify factors that explain a burn patient's LOS. However, few have investigated the association between LOS and a patient's mental and socioeconomic status. There is anecdotal evidence for links between these factors; uncovering these will aid in better addressing the specific physical and emotional needs of burn patients and facilitate the planning of scarce hospital resources. Here, we employ machine learning (clustering) and statistical models (regression) to investigate whether segmentation by socioeconomic/mental status can improve the performance and interpretability of an upstream predictive model, relative to a unitary model. Although we found no significant difference in the unitary model's performance and the segment-specific models, the interpretation of the segment-specific models reveals a reduced impact of burn severity in LOS prediction with increasing adverse socioeconomic and mental status. Furthermore, the socioeconomic segments' models highlight an increased influence of living circumstances and source of injury on LOS. These findings suggest that in addition to ensuring that patients' physical needs are met, management of their mental status is crucial for delivering an effective care plan.

Comparison of the international Burn Injury Database nurse dependency tool with the Safer Nursing Care Tool: Observational study.

Background: Safe and effective nurse staffing is widely recognised as an important issue to ensure quality patient care and reduce mortality. There are many nurse dependency tools described in the literature but no gold standard tool that can be used in all specialities. In burn care there are even fewer burn specific tools and none reported for use in the UK to date. The international Burn Injury Database contains routinely collected information about burn injuries, including nurse dependency data which so far has not been reported in the literature. Objective: This study aimed to confirm whether the international Burn Injury Database nurse dependency tool can be used to measure nurse dependency in burn services. Methods: Over a two week period, nurses in three burn services scored the nurse dependency of their burn injured patients daily using the international Burn Injury Database Nurse Dependency Tool and the Safer Nursing Care Tool. Additionally all the participating nurses were asked to score three fictional case studies using the same two tools to assess inter-rater reliability. Results: There was a statistically significant positive correlation between the international Burn Injury Database Nurse Dependency Tool and the Safer Nursing Care Tool scores (ρ = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.82-0.90). The case study scores showed a similar correlation pattern as the daily comparison recordings. The inter-rater reliability between the participants was comparable for both the international Burn Injury Database  Nurse Dependency Tool (α =0.74, CI = 0.71-0.77) and the Safer Nursing Care Tool (α =0.79, CI = 0.76-0.81). Psychological support variable had the weakest correlation with the nurse dependency tools and the lowest agreement between nurses. Conclusion: This is the first report in the literature of the international Burn Injury Database Nurse Dependency Tool, the results of which suggest that it does measure aspects of nurse dependency and thus could be a valuable tool in the battle to ensure safe staffing. The good inter-rater reliability between the nurses, regardless of the nurse dependency tool used, should give confidence to nurses and managers using the dependency data to influence staffing.

Burn service costing using a mixed model methodology.

INTRODUCTION: The escalating cost of modern healthcare is threatening the fundamental "free at the point of delivery" principle of the UK National Health Services. A new remuneration system using a fixed tariff for pre-assigned diagnostic groups caters poorly for the heterogeneity of burn injuries. This study was to develop a system for Patient Level Costing (PLC), the first steps of which were to determine the true cost of burn care at service level. METHODS: Detailed interrogation was conducted of the cost of care in our Burns & Plastic Surgery Department. Costs were determined through the amalgamation of two fundamental methodologies: (1) Top-Down Costing (from detailed budgetary analysis for the hospital) and (2) Bottom-Up Costing (detailed itemised costing of staff, equipment, drugs, consumables & maintenance). These costs were categorised & using various apportionment tools, traced to specific care areas. RESULTS: We demonstrated that the accuracy of costs derived by host organisations cannot be relied upon (our Burn Service was 62% more expensive than estimated by our host organisation), which therefore questions the accuracy of most published work on burn care costing based upon these assumptions. Using our costing model, an analysis was made of the cost of running the Department with zero activity but "open & ready for business". Costs such as drugs and consumables were thus removed. This demonstrated that despite no clinical activity, costs still remained at 90% of full occupancy cost and are thus fixed costs. CONCLUSIONS: We hope application of this new system of Patient Level Costing to burn care will avoid the threatened viability of burn services imposed by changes in remuneration, although it will inevitably be an iterative process. A fuller understanding of the true cost of healthcare, facilitates service development and planning, both at a local and national level.

The SILKIE (Skin graftIng Low friKtIon Environment) study: a non-randomised proof-of-concept and feasibility study on the impact of low-friction nursing environment on skin grafting success rates in adult and paediatric burns.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of low-friction (LF) bedding on graft loss in an acute burn care setting, and to examine the feasibility and costs of using LF bedding compared with standard care. DESIGN: Proof of concept before and after study with feasibility of delivering the intervention. SETTING: Three burns services within two UK hospital trusts. PARTICIPANTS: Inclusion criteria were patients older than 4 weeks, who received a skin graft after burn injury and were admitted overnight. The comparator cohort were eligible patients admitted in a 12-month period before the intervention. INTERVENTION: Introduction of LF sheets and pillowcases during a 15-month period. OUTCOME MEASURES: For proof of concept, the LF and comparator cohorts were compared in terms of number of regrafting operations (primary), percentage graft loss, hospital length of stay (LoS) and LoS cost (secondary). Feasibility outcomes were practicality and safety of using LF bedding. RESULTS: 131 patients were eligible for the LF cohort and 90 patients for the comparator cohort. Although the primary outcome of the proportion needing regrafting was halved in the LF cohort, the confidence interval (CI) crossed 1 (OR (95% CI): 0.56 (0.16 to 1.88)). Partial graft loss (any loss) was significantly reduced in the LF cohort (OR (95% CI): 0.27 (0.14, 0.51)). Inpatient LoS was no different between the two cohorts (difference in median days (95% CI): 0 (-2 to 1)), and the estimated difference in LoS cost was £-1139 (-4829 to 2551). Practical issues were easily resolved, and no safety incidents occurred while patients were nursed on LF bedding. CONCLUSIONS: LF bedding is safe to use in burned patients with skin grafts and we have shown proof of concept for the intervention. Further economic modelling is required to see if an appropriately powered randomised control trial would be worthwhile or if roll out across the National Health Service is justified. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN82599687.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in severe respiratory failure resulting from burns and smoke inhalation injury.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is one of the most frequent forms of extracorporeal life support (ECLS) and can be used as rescue therapy in patients with severe respiratory failure resulting from burns and/or smoke inhalation injury. Experience and literature on this treatment option is still very limited, consequently results are varied. We report a retrospective analysis of our experience with veno-venous (VV) ECMO in burn patients. All five patients, three male and two female (age: 28-37 years) had flame type burns and smoke inhalation injury. Their Murray scores ranged between 3.25 and 3.75, and their revised Baux scores between 62 and 102. The mean pre-ECMO conventional ventilation time was 7.4days (3-13). The mean ECMO duration was 18days (8-35). Three patients were cannulated with dual lumen, two with separate cannulae. One oxygenator had to be changed due to technical issues and two patients needed two parallel oxygenators. Four patients had renal replacement therapy. All patients needed vasoconstrictor support, antibiotics and packed red blood cells (5-62 units). Three had steroid treatment. All five patients were successfully weaned from ECMO. One patient died later from multi-organ failure in the ICU, the other four patients survived. VV-ECMO is a useful rescue intervention in patients with burns related severe respiratory failure. Patients in our institution benefit from having both burns and ECMO centres with major expertise in the field under one roof. The results from this small cohort are encouraging, although more cases are needed to draw more robust conclusions.

Circadian actin dynamics drive rhythmic fibroblast mobilization during wound healing.

Fibroblasts are primary cellular protagonists of wound healing. They also exhibit circadian timekeeping, which imparts an approximately 24-hour rhythm to their biological function. We interrogated the functional consequences of the cell-autonomous clockwork in fibroblasts using a proteome-wide screen for rhythmically expressed proteins. We observed temporal coordination of actin regulators that drives cell-intrinsic rhythms in actin dynamics. In consequence, the cellular clock modulates the efficiency of actin-dependent processes such as cell migration and adhesion, which ultimately affect the efficacy of wound healing. Accordingly, skin wounds incurred during a mouse's active phase exhibited increased fibroblast invasion in vivo and ex vivo, as well as in cultured fibroblasts and keratinocytes. Our experimental results correlate with the observation that the time of injury significantly affects healing after burns in humans, with daytime wounds healing ~60% faster than nighttime wounds. We suggest that circadian regulation of the cytoskeleton influences wound-healing efficacy from the cellular to the organismal scale.

Human survival in volcanic eruptions: Thermal injuries in pyroclastic surges, their causes, prognosis and emergency management.

This study of burns patients from two eruptions of Merapi volcano, Java, in 1994 and 2010, is the first detailed analysis to be reported of thermal injuries in a large series of hospitalised victims of pyroclastic surges, one of the most devastating phenomena in explosive eruptions. Emergency planners in volcanic crises in populated areas have to integrate the health sector into disaster management and be aware of the nature of the surge impacts and the types of burns victims to be expected in a worst scenario, potentially in numbers and in severity that would overwhelm normal treatment facilities. In our series, 106 patients from the two eruptions were treated in the same major hospital in Yogyakarta and a third of these survived. Seventy-eight per cent were admitted with over 40% TBSA (total body surface area) burns and around 80% of patients were suspected of having at least some degree of inhalation injury as well. Thirty five patients suffered over 80% TBSA burns and only one of these survived. Crucially, 45% of patients were in the 40-79% TBSA range, with most suspected of suffering from inhalation injury, for whom survival was most dependent on the hospital treatment they received. After reviewing the evidence from recent major eruptions and outlining the thermal hazards of surges, we relate the type and severity of the injuries of these patients to the temperatures and dynamics of the pyroclastic surges, as derived from the environmental impacts and associated eruption processes evaluated in our field surveys and interviews conducted by our multi-disciplinary team. Effective warnings, adequate evacuation measures, and political will are all essential in volcanic crises in populated areas to prevent future catastrophes on this scale.

Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

INTRODUCTION: Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. METHODS: An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. RESULTS: All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. DISCUSSION: The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts.

Patient outcomes vs. service workload: an analysis of outcomes in the burn service of England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Patient outcomes in specialist burns units have been used as a metric of care needs and quality. Besides patient factors there are service factors that might influence Length of Stay (LOS) and mortality, e.g. pressure on beds. Although the bed needs of UK hospitals have dropped significantly over the past three decades, with changes in policies and practices, recent reports suggest that hospitals have 90% bed occupancy for 48 weeks of the year. In the UK, the specialist burn injury service is organised so that patients are assessed on arrival at hospital, and those needing admission are found a nearby bed in a suitable unit through the National Burn Bed Bureau. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect on outcomes of service pressures due to shortages of beds. METHODS: We took an extract of the anonymised patient data from the specialised burn injury database, iBID, and created a new database based on matching that data with bed availability data provided by the national Burn Bed Bureau. Cox proportional hazard modelling was used for analysis to investigate if there is an impact of bed occupancy (a proxy measure of workload) on LOS. RESULTS: Cox proportional hazard modelling indicated that half of the services in England and Wales are less likely to discharge a patient if the bed availability is high. Two of the services have abnormally high bed availability and LOS, therefore a model without these two services indicates a general reluctance to discharge patients when beds are available. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible that the effect we observed is a result of gaming as service providers are paid by the number of admissions. In addition, providers many not all give the same level of accuracy of bed availability information to the NBBB: some may under report availability, for example at times of high pressure on staff. Furthermore, burn services may not empty beds to avoid being filled up by work from other specialties, thus making them unable to admit a burn when referred.

A review of the international Burn Injury Database (iBID) for England and Wales: descriptive analysis of burn injuries 2003-2011.

OBJECTIVE: To describe, for the first time, distribution (by geography, age, sex) and time trends in burn injury in England and Wales over the period that the international Burn Injury Database (iBID) has been in place. SETTING: Data from the iBID for the years 2003-2011 were used for a retrospective descriptive observational study of specialised services workload and admissions in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: All patients who have been visited or admitted to the burn injury specialised health service of England and Wales during the time period 2003-2011. Data cleaning was performed omitting patients with incomplete records (missingness never exceeded 5%). OUTCOME MEASURES: Workload, admissions, mortality, length of stay (LOS), geographical distribution, sex differences, age differences, total burn surface area, mechanism of Injury. RESULTS: During 2003-2011, 81,181 patients attended the specialised burn service for assessment and admission in England and Wales. Of these, 57,801 were admitted to the services. Males accounted for 63% of the total workload in specialised burn injury services, and females for 37%. The median (IQR) burn surface area was 1.5% (3.5%). The most frequent reason for burn injury was scald (38%). The median (IQR) age for all the referred workload for both genders was 21 (40). The overall mortality of the admitted patients was 1.51% and the median (IQR) LOS was 1 (5) days. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from burn injuries in England and Wales is decreasing in line with western world trends. There is an observed increase in admissions to burn services but that could be explained in various ways. These results are vital for service development and planning, as well as the development and monitoring of prevention strategies and for healthcare commissioning.

Geographical analysis of socioeconomic factors in risk of domestic burn injury in London 2007-2013.

PURPOSE: This study aims to explore the geographical distribution of burn injuries in Greater London and the association of socioeconomic factors in areas at risk. METHODS: Data on burn injury cases classified as occurring in patients' own homes in Greater London and admitted to a specialised burns service for ≥1 day during a 7-year period were obtained from the International Burn Injury Database (iBID). Age- and gender-adjusted standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for each Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) in Greater London. Bayesian methods were used to calculate relative risks as best estimates of spatially-smoothed SIRs. RESULTS: Of a total of 2911 admissions to specialised burns services in Greater London in the study period, 2100 (72.1%) cases occurred in patients' own homes. Percentage of ethnic minorities (p=0.005), Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (p<0.001), Health Deprivation and Disability Score (p=0.031), percentage of families with 3 or more children (p=0.004) and Barriers to Housing and Services Score (p=0.001) remained independently associated with the relative risk of paediatric domestic burn injury in a multivariate linear regression model. Percentage of ethnic minorities (p<0.001), Health Deprivation and Disability Score (p<0.001) and Barriers to Housing and Services Score (p=0.036) remained independently associated with the relative risk of adult domestic burn injury in a multivariate linear regression model. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic factors are associated with an increased risk of burn injury in Greater London, but may be more important in children than adults. The specific factors identified are ethnicity, poor general health, household structure, housing issues and income deprivation affecting children.

Burn related mortality in Greater Manchester: 11-year review of Regional Coronial Department Data.

INTRODUCTION: The Coroners Department (CD) records hold important demographic, injury and death details for victims of burn injuries derived from various sources yet this rich source of data has been infrequently utilised previously in describing the epidemiology of burn related mortality. The aim of this study was to use CD data to comprehensively investigate burn related mortality in the Greater Manchester region of United Kingdom. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study design was used to collect data for deceased demographics, injury details, site of death and cause of death from four CD offices in GM over an 11-year period (2000-2010 inclusive). Office of National Statistics (ONS) population metrics were used to calculate age- and gender-specific population denominators and mortality rates. Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) was used to correlate mortality with deprivation. Linear regression and Pearson's/Spearman's rank correlation were used to calculate trends and correlations. Poisson regression was used to calculate relative risk (IRR) between age- and gender groups. RESULTS: There were 314 recorded deaths in the region over the study period and thermal injury was 3-times less likely to result in death in 2010 compared to 2000. The largest proportion of these deaths (24.8%) was comprised of individuals ≥75 years in age. The relative risk of mortality in males was nearly 1.5-times higher and a significant majority of victims (77%) sustained their burn injury at their own home/residence. Inhalation injury without cutaneous burns was the most frequent type of injury (33%) and accidental house fires caused nearly half (49%) the injuries resulting in death. Sixty-five percent of deaths during this period were recorded to have occurred outside of regional burn service (RBS) hospitals and the commonest cause of immediate death on the death certificates was "inhalation of products of combustion" (32.1%). Within the >75 years age group the risk of death significantly increased with every quintile reduction in deprivation. CONCLUSION: Our data shows that despite reducing overall mortality, certain age groups and causation patterns are associated with significantly higher risks of mortality in our region. Further reduction in burn mortality should focus on the use of prevention efforts with established effectiveness in these high-risk groups. In addition, as a significant proportion of deaths occur outside a burn service environment hence epidemiology data based solely on mortality statistics from burn services will underestimate true burn related mortality.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions for increasing the possession of functioning smoke alarms in households with pre-school children: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The UK has one of the highest rates for deaths from fire and flames in children aged 0-14 years compared to other high income countries. Evidence shows that smoke alarms can reduce the risk of fire-related injury but little exists on their cost-effectiveness. We aimed to compare the cost effectiveness of different interventions for the uptake of 'functioning' smoke alarms and consequently for the prevention of fire-related injuries in children in the UK. METHODS: We carried out a decision model-based probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis. We used a hypothetical population of newborns and evaluated the impact of living in a household with or without a functioning smoke alarm during the first 5 years of their life on overall lifetime costs and quality of life from a public health perspective. We compared seven interventions, ranging from usual care to more complex interventions comprising of education, free/low cost equipment giveaway, equipment fitting and/or home safety inspection. RESULTS: Education and free/low cost equipment was the most cost-effective intervention with an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £34,200 per QALY gained compared to usual care. This was reduced to approximately £4,500 per QALY gained when 1.8 children under the age of 5 were assumed per household. CONCLUSIONS: Assessing cost-effectiveness, as well as effectiveness, is important in a public sector system operating under a fixed budget restraint. As highlighted in this study, the more effective interventions (in this case the more complex interventions) may not necessarily be the ones considered the most cost-effective.

A model of British in-hospital mortality among burns patients.

INTRODUCTION: Mortality among patients treated in hospital for burn is routinely examined, but none of the many models in use in the UK was developed using nationwide data. The aim of this research was to develop a prediction model using national data, representative of the British population. METHODS: Data were gathered from the international Burns Injury Database (iBID) and included 66,611 patients from England and Wales from 2003 to 2011. Core variables were selected following systematic review of the literature, expert consultation and then supplemented with variables selected through logistic regression. Discrimination and calibration of the model were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 test respectively. RESULTS: Overall mortality for the years of the study in England and Wales was 1.27%. Mortality was predicted by age (and quadratic term) total burn surface area, presence of inhalation injury, presence of existing disorders and category of injury. The model gave a discrimination area under the curve of 0.97 in both internal and external validation. The calibration of the model gave a Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 of 11.9 (p=0.3). CONCLUSION: We have reported a strongly predictive and theoretically well-founded model of in-patient mortality using nine years of data from all burn care services in England and Wales. We recommend this model for British burn service development and for international consideration of the variables to use in developing similar models with other data sources.

Accuracy of commercial reporting systems to monitor quality of care in burns.

INTRODUCTION: Capse Healthcare Knowledge Systems (CHKS) is a global commercial organisation that operates health benchmarking programmes in the UK and internationally. In absence of a specialty-specific quality monitoring programme for burn services, CHKS has been producing comparative quality data for burn services for a number of years. The major quality indicator reported by CHKS is mortality as a Risk Adjusted Mortality Index (RAMI). The accuracy of RAMI is unknown in comparison to published burn-specific mortality prediction models. METHODS: A retrospective study design was used to collect data for patients admitted to the Adult Burn Service at University Hospital South Manchester (UHSM) between January 2006 and December 2010. Data was collected from two sources, CHKS and Manchester Burn Injury Database (MBID). The demographic and injury characteristics of survivors and non-survivors were compared and Receiver Operator Curve (ROC), equivalence and non-inferiority analyses were used to assess accuracy of RAMI in comparison to Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Belgian Outcome of Burn Injury (BOBI) score, Baux score (Baux) and McGwin score (McGwin). RESULTS: The accuracy of RAMI to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors (area under curve=0.79, 95% CI 0.50-0.81) was significantly inferior to that of ABSI, BOBI, Baux and McGwin scores. Equivalence and non-inferiority testing of ROC curves also showed RAMI score to be inferior to ABSI, BOBI, Baux and McGwin scores at 5% significance level. CONCLUSION: CHKS RAMI provides an inaccurate and inferior monitoring of mortality as a quality indicator in burn patients compared to burn specific mortality prediction models. This study raises concerns about the ability of commercially reported systems to accurately monitor quality indicators of relevance to burn care.