Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent a major hazard and can result in significant loss of life. Globally, since 1990, the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population, while socio-economic vulnerability has decreased. Nevertheless, contemporary exposure and vulnerability to GLOFs at the global scale has never been quantified. Here we show that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential GLOFs. Populations in High Mountains Asia (HMA) are the most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with ~1 million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake. More than half of the globally exposed population are found in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru, and China. While HMA has the highest potential for GLOF impacts, we highlight the Andes as a region of concern, with similar potential for GLOF impacts to HMA but comparatively few published research studies.

Forest floor temperature and greenness link significantly to canopy attributes in South Africa's fragmented coastal forests.

Tropical landscapes are changing rapidly due to changes in land use and land management. Being able to predict and monitor land use change impacts on species for conservation or food security concerns requires the use of habitat quality metrics, that are consistent, can be mapped using above-ground sensor data and are relevant for species performance. Here, we focus on ground surface temperature (Thermal ground) and ground vegetation greenness (NDVI down) as potentially suitable metrics of habitat quality. Both have been linked to species demography and community structure in the literature. We test whether they can be measured consistently from the ground and whether they can be up-scaled indirectly using canopy structure maps (Leaf Area Index, LAI, and Fractional vegetation cover, FCover) developed from Landsat remote sensing data. We measured Thermal ground and NDVI down across habitats differing in tree cover (natural grassland to forest edges to forests and tree plantations) in the human-modified coastal forested landscapes of Kwa-Zulua Natal, South Africa. We show that both metrics decline significantly with increasing canopy closure and leaf area, implying a potential pathway for upscaling both metrics using canopy structure maps derived using earth observation. Specifically, our findings suggest that opening forest canopies by 20% or decreasing forest canopy LAI by one unit would result in increases of Thermal ground by 1.2 °C across the range of observations studied. NDVI down appears to decline by 0.1 in response to an increase in canopy LAI by 1 unit and declines nonlinearly with canopy closure. Accounting for micro-scale variation in temperature and resources is seen as essential to improve biodiversity impact predictions. Our study suggests that mapping ground surface temperature and ground vegetation greenness utilising remotely sensed canopy cover maps could provide a useful tool for mapping habitat quality metrics that matter to species. However, this approach will be constrained by the predictive capacity of models used to map field-derived forest canopy attributes. Furthermore, sampling efforts are needed to capture spatial and temporal variation in Thermal ground within and across days and seasons to validate the transferability of our findings. Finally, whilst our approach shows that surface temperature and ground vegetation greenness might be suitable habitat quality metric used in biodiversity monitoring, the next step requires that we map demographic traits of species of different threat status onto maps of these metrics in landscapes differing in disturbance and management histories. The derived understanding could then be exploited for targeted landscape restoration that benefits biodiversity conservation at the landscape scale.

Drift-dependent changes in iceberg size-frequency distributions.

Although the size-frequency distributions of icebergs can provide insight into how they disintegrate, our understanding of this process is incomplete. Fundamentally, there is a discrepancy between iceberg power-law size-frequency distributions observed at glacial calving fronts and lognormal size-frequency distributions observed globally within open waters that remains unexplained. Here we use passive seismic monitoring to examine mechanisms of iceberg disintegration as a function of drift. Our results indicate that the shift in the size-frequency distribution of iceberg sizes observed is a product of fracture-driven iceberg disintegration and dimensional reductions through melting. We suggest that changes in the characteristic size-frequency scaling of icebergs can be explained by the emergence of a dominant set of driving processes of iceberg degradation towards the open ocean. Consequently, the size-frequency distribution required to model iceberg distributions accurately must vary according to distance from the calving front.

Mid-Holocene pulse of thinning in the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Establishing the trajectory of thinning of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) since the last glacial maximum (LGM) is important for addressing questions concerning ice sheet (in)stability and changes in global sea level. Here we present detailed geomorphological and cosmogenic nuclide data from the southern Ellsworth Mountains in the heart of the Weddell Sea embayment that suggest the ice sheet, nourished by increased snowfall until the early Holocene, was close to its LGM thickness at 10 ka. A pulse of rapid thinning caused the ice elevation to fall ∼400 m to the present level at 6.5-3.5 ka, and could have contributed 1.4-2 m to global sea-level rise. These results imply that the Weddell Sea sector of the WAIS contributed little to late-glacial pulses in sea-level rise but was involved in mid-Holocene rises. The stepped decline is argued to reflect marine downdraw triggered by grounding line retreat into Hercules Inlet.

Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years.

Past fluctuations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are of fundamental interest because of the possibility of WAIS collapse in the future and a consequent rise in global sea level. However, the configuration and stability of the ice sheet during past interglacial periods remains uncertain. Here we present geomorphological evidence and multiple cosmogenic nuclide data from the southern Ellsworth Mountains to suggest that the divide of the WAIS has fluctuated only modestly in location and thickness for at least the last 1.4 million years. Fluctuations during glacial-interglacial cycles appear superimposed on a long-term trajectory of ice-surface lowering relative to the mountains. This implies that as a minimum, a regional ice sheet centred on the Ellsworth-Whitmore uplands may have survived Pleistocene warm periods. If so, it constrains the WAIS contribution to global sea level rise during interglacials to about 3.3 m above present.

Rapid sequestration of rock avalanche deposits within glaciers.

Topographic development in mountainous landscapes is a complex interplay between tectonics, climate and denudation. Glaciers erode valleys to generate headwall relief, and hillslope processes control the height and retreat of the peaks. The magnitude-frequency of these landslides and their long-term ability to lower mountains above glaciers is poorly understood; however, small, frequent rockfalls are currently thought to dominate. The preservation of rarer, larger, landslide deposits is exceptionally short-lived, as they are rapidly reworked. The 2013 Mount Haast rock avalanche that failed from the slopes of Aoraki/Mount Cook, New Zealand, onto the glacier accumulation zone below was invisible to conventional remote sensing after just 3 months. Here we use sub-surface data to reveal the now-buried landslide deposit, and suggest that large landslides are the primary hillslope erosion mechanism here. These data show how past large landslides can be identified in accumulation zones, providing an untapped archive of erosive events in mountainous landscapes.