US oil and gas system emissions from nearly one million aerial site measurements.

As airborne methane surveys of oil and gas systems continue to discover large emissions that are missing from official estimates1-4, the true scope of methane emissions from energy production has yet to be quantified. We integrate approximately one million aerial site measurements into regional emissions inventories for six regions in the USA, comprising 52% of onshore oil and 29% of gas production over 15 aerial campaigns. We construct complete emissions distributions for each, employing empirically grounded simulations to estimate small emissions. Total estimated emissions range from 0.75% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65%, 0.84%) of covered natural gas production in a high-productivity, gas-rich region to 9.63% (95% CI 9.04%, 10.39%) in a rapidly expanding, oil-focused region. The six-region weighted average is 2.95% (95% CI 2.79%, 3.14%), or roughly three times the national government inventory estimate5. Only 0.05-1.66% of well sites contribute the majority (50-79%) of well site emissions in 11 out of 15 surveys. Ancillary midstream facilities, including pipelines, contribute 18-57% of estimated regional emissions, similarly concentrated in a small number of point sources. Together, the emissions quantified here represent an annual loss of roughly US$1 billion in commercial gas value and a US$9.3 billion annual social cost6. Repeated, comprehensive, regional remote-sensing surveys offer a path to detect these low-frequency, high-consequence emissions for rapid mitigation, incorporation into official emissions inventories and a clear-eyed assessment of the most effective emission-finding technologies for a given region.

Quantifying methane emissions from United States landfills.

Methane emissions from solid waste may represent a substantial fraction of the global anthropogenic budget, but few comprehensive studies exist to assess inventory assumptions. We quantified emissions at hundreds of large landfills across 18 states in the United States between 2016 and 2022 using airborne imaging spectrometers. Spanning 20% of open United States landfills, this represents the most systematic measurement-based study of methane point sources of the waste sector. We detected significant point source emissions at a majority (52%) of these sites, many with emissions persisting over multiple revisits (weeks to years). We compared these against independent contemporaneous in situ airborne observations at 15 landfills and established good agreement. Our findings indicate a need for long-term, synoptic-scale monitoring of landfill emissions in the context of climate change mitigation policy.

Attribution of individual methane and carbon dioxide emission sources using EMIT observations from space.

Carbon dioxide and methane emissions are the two primary anthropogenic climate-forcing agents and an important source of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. Uncertainties are further magnified when emissions occur at fine spatial scales (<1 km), making attribution challenging. We present the first observations from NASA's Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) imaging spectrometer showing quantification and attribution of fine-scale methane (0.3 to 73 tonnes CH4 hour-1) and carbon dioxide sources (1571 to 3511 tonnes CO2 hour-1) spanning the oil and gas, waste, and energy sectors. For selected countries observed during the first 30 days of EMIT operations, methane emissions varied at a regional scale, with the largest total emissions observed for Turkmenistan (731 ± 148 tonnes CH4 hour-1). These results highlight the contributions of current and planned point source imagers in closing global carbon budgets.

Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Gathering Pipelines in the Permian Basin.

The rapid reduction of methane emissions, especially from oil and gas (O&G) operations, is a critical part of slowing global warming. However, few studies have attempted to specifically characterize emissions from natural gas gathering pipelines, which tend to be more difficult to monitor on the ground than other forms of O&G infrastructure. In this study, we use methane emission measurements collected from four recent aerial campaigns in the Permian Basin, the most prolific O&G basin in the United States, to estimate a methane emission factor for gathering lines. From each campaign, we calculate an emission factor between 2.7 (+1.9/-1.8, 95% confidence interval) and 10.0 (+6.4/-6.2) Mg of CH4 year-1 km-1, 14-52 times higher than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's national estimate for gathering lines and 4-13 times higher than the highest estimate derived from a published ground-based survey of gathering lines. Using Monte Carlo techniques, we demonstrate that aerial data collection allows for a greater sample size than ground-based data collection and therefore more comprehensive identification of emission sources that comprise the heavy tail of methane emissions distributions. Our results suggest that pipeline emissions are underestimated in current inventories and highlight the importance of a large sample size when calculating basinwide pipeline emission factors.

Strong methane point sources contribute a disproportionate fraction of total emissions across multiple basins in the United States.

Understanding, prioritizing, and mitigating methane (CH4) emissions requires quantifying CH4 budgets from facility scales to regional scales with the ability to differentiate between source sectors. We deployed a tiered observing system for multiple basins in the United States (San Joaquin Valley, Uinta, Denver-Julesburg, Permian, Marcellus). We quantify strong point source emissions (>10 kg CH4 h-1) using airborne imaging spectrometers, attribute them to sectors, and assess their intermittency with multiple revisits. We compare these point source emissions to total basin CH4 fluxes derived from inversion of Sentinel-5p satellite CH4 observations. Across basins, point sources make up on average 40% of the regional flux. We sampled some basins several times across multiple months and years and find a distinct bimodal structure to emission timescales: the total point source budget is split nearly in half by short-lasting and long-lasting emission events. With the increasing airborne and satellite observing capabilities planned for the near future, tiered observing systems will more fully quantify and attribute CH4 emissions from facility to regional scales, which is needed to effectively and efficiently reduce methane emissions.

A multi-city urban atmospheric greenhouse gas measurement data synthesis.

Urban regions emit a large fraction of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that contribute to modern-day climate change. As such, a growing number of urban policymakers and stakeholders are adopting emission reduction targets and implementing policies to reach those targets. Over the past two decades research teams have established urban GHG monitoring networks to determine how much, where, and why a particular city emits GHGs, and to track changes in emissions over time. Coordination among these efforts has been limited, restricting the scope of analyses and insights. Here we present a harmonized data set synthesizing urban GHG observations from cities with monitoring networks across North America that will facilitate cross-city analyses and address scientific questions that are difficult to address in isolation.

Satellite-based survey of extreme methane emissions in the Permian basin.

Industrial emissions play a major role in the global methane budget. The Permian basin is thought to be responsible for almost half of the methane emissions from all U.S. oil- and gas-producing regions, but little is known about individual contributors, a prerequisite for mitigation. We use a new class of satellite measurements acquired during several days in 2019 and 2020 to perform the first regional-scale and high-resolution survey of methane sources in the Permian. We find an unexpectedly large number of extreme point sources (37 plumes with emission rates >500 kg hour-1), which account for a range between 31 and 53% of the estimated emissions in the sampled area. Our analysis reveals that new facilities are major emitters in the area, often due to inefficient flaring operations (20% of detections). These results put current practices into question and are relevant to guide emission reduction efforts.

Large and seasonally varying biospheric CO2 fluxes in the Los Angeles megacity revealed by atmospheric radiocarbon.

Measurements of Δ14C and CO2 can cleanly separate biogenic and fossil contributions to CO2 enhancements above background. Our measurements of these tracers in air around Los Angeles in 2015 reveal high values of fossil CO2 and a significant and seasonally varying contribution of CO2 from the urban biosphere. The biogenic CO2 is composed of sources such as biofuel combustion and human metabolism and an urban biospheric component likely originating from urban vegetation, including turf and trees. The urban biospheric component is a source in winter and a sink in summer, with an estimated amplitude of 4.3 parts per million (ppm), equivalent to 33% of the observed annual mean fossil fuel contribution of 13 ppm. While the timing of the net carbon sink is out of phase with wintertime rainfall and the sink seasonality of Southern California Mediterranean ecosystems (which show maximum uptake in spring), it is in phase with the seasonal cycle of urban water usage, suggesting that irrigated urban vegetation drives the biospheric signal we observe. Although 2015 was very dry, the biospheric seasonality we observe is similar to the 2006-2015 mean derived from an independent Δ14C record in the Los Angeles area, indicating that 2015 biospheric exchange was not highly anomalous. The presence of a large and seasonally varying biospheric signal even in the relatively dry climate of Los Angeles implies that atmospheric estimates of fossil fuel-CO2 emissions in other, potentially wetter, urban areas will be biased in the absence of reliable methods to separate fossil and biogenic CO2.

Assessment of Regional Methane Emission Inventories through Airborne Quantification in the San Francisco Bay Area.

This study derives methane emission rates from 92 airborne observations collected over 23 facilities including 5 refineries, 10 landfills, 4 wastewater treatment plants (POTWs), 2 composting operations, and 2 dairies in the San Francisco Bay Area. Emission rates are measured using an airborne mass-balance technique from a low-flying aircraft. Annual measurement-based sectorwide methane emissions are 19,000 ± 2300 Mg for refineries, 136,700 ± 25,900 Mg for landfills, 11,900 ± 1,500 Mg for POTWs, and 11,100 ± 3,400 Mg for composting. The average of measured emissions for each refinery ranges from 4 to 23 times larger than the corresponding emissions reported to regulatory agencies, while measurement-derived landfill and POTW estimates are approximately twice the current inventory estimates. Significant methane emissions at composting facilities indicate that a California mandate to divert organics from landfills to composting may not be an effective measure for mitigating methane emissions unless best management practices are instituted at composting facilities. Complementary evidence from airborne remote sensing imagery indicates atmospheric venting from refinery hydrogen plants, landfill working surfaces, composting stockpiles, etc., to be among the specific source types responsible for the observed discrepancies. This work highlights the value of multiple measurement approaches to accurately estimate facility-scale methane emissions and perform source attribution at subfacility scales to guide and verify effective mitigation policy and action.

California's methane super-emitters.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and is targeted for emissions mitigation by the US state of California and other jurisdictions worldwide1,2. Unique opportunities for mitigation are presented by point-source emitters-surface features or infrastructure components that are typically less than 10 metres in diameter and emit plumes of highly concentrated methane3. However, data on point-source emissions are sparse and typically lack sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to guide their mitigation and to accurately assess their magnitude4. Here we survey more than 272,000 infrastructure elements in California using an airborne imaging spectrometer that can rapidly map methane plumes5-7. We conduct five campaigns over several months from 2016 to 2018, spanning the oil and gas, manure-management and waste-management sectors, resulting in the detection, geolocation and quantification of emissions from 564 strong methane point sources. Our remote sensing approach enables the rapid and repeated assessment of large areas at high spatial resolution for a poorly characterized population of methane emitters that often appear intermittently and stochastically. We estimate net methane point-source emissions in California to be 0.618 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.523-0.725), equivalent to 34-46 per cent of the state's methane inventory8 for 2016. Methane 'super-emitter' activity occurs in every sector surveyed, with 10 per cent of point sources contributing roughly 60 per cent of point-source emissions-consistent with a study of the US Four Corners region that had a different sectoral mix9. The largest methane emitters in California are a subset of landfills, which exhibit persistent anomalous activity. Methane point-source emissions in California are dominated by landfills (41 per cent), followed by dairies (26 per cent) and the oil and gas sector (26 per cent). Our data have enabled the identification of the 0.2 per cent of California's infrastructure that is responsible for these emissions. Sharing these data with collaborating infrastructure operators has led to the mitigation of anomalous methane-emission activity10.

Carbon dioxide and methane measurements from the Los Angeles Megacity Carbon Project - Part 1: calibration, urban enhancements, and uncertainty estimates.

We report continuous surface observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from the Los Angeles (LA) Megacity Carbon Project during 2015. We devised a calibration strategy, methods for selection of background air masses, calculation of urban enhancements, and a detailed algorithm for estimating uncertainties in urban-scale CO2 and CH4 measurements. These methods are essential for understanding carbon fluxes from the LA megacity and other complex urban environments globally. We estimate background mole fractions entering LA using observations from four "extra-urban" sites including two "marine" sites located south of LA in La Jolla (LJO) and offshore on San Clemente Island (SCI), one "continental" site located in Victorville (VIC), in the high desert northeast of LA, and one "continental/mid-troposphere" site located on Mount Wilson (MWO) in the San Gabriel Mountains. We find that a local marine background can be established to within ~1 ppm CO2 and ~10 ppb CH4 using these local measurement sites. Overall, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are highly variable across Los Angeles. "Urban" and "suburban" sites show moderate to large CO2 and CH4 enhancements relative to a marine background estimate. The USC (University of Southern California) site near downtown LA exhibits median hourly enhancements of ~20 ppm CO2 and ~150 ppb CH4 during 2015 as well as ~15 ppm CO2 and ~80 ppb CH4 during mid-afternoon hours (12:00-16:00 LT, local time), which is the typical period of focus for flux inversions. The estimated measurement uncertainty is typically better than 0.1 ppm CO2 and 1 ppb CH4 based on the repeated standard gas measurements from the LA sites during the last 2 years, similar to Andrews et al. (2014). The largest component of the measurement uncertainty is due to the single-point calibration method; however, the uncertainty in the background mole fraction is much larger than the measurement uncertainty. The background uncertainty for the marine background estimate is ~10 and ~15 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement near downtown LA for CO2 and CH4, respectively. Overall, analytical and background uncertainties are small relative to the local CO2 and CH4 enhancements; however, our results suggest that reducing the uncertainty to less than 5 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement will require detailed assessment of the impact of meteorology on background conditions.