Feasibility study of a total precipitable water IPDA lidar from a solar-powered stratospheric aircraft.

Repetitive, high spatial resolution measurements of water vapor are highly desirable for a range of critical applications, including quantitative forecasts of wildfire risk forecasting, extreme weather, drought implicated in mass refugee dislocation, and air quality. A point design for an integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) light detection and ranging (lidar) for column precipitable water vapor (PWV) intended for high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) uncrewed aerial systems (UASs) is described and analyzed. A novel, to the best of our knowledge, all-semiconductor source utilizing an intensity-modulated continuous wave approach to ranging is proposed, which facilitates reductions in weight, power, and size. Analytic and Monte Carlo calculations suggest that high spatial resolution (<10m) or high precision (<1%) may be obtained.

Stratospheric ozone over the United States in summer linked to observations of convection and temperature via chlorine and bromine catalysis.

We present observations defining (i) the frequency and depth of convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; (ii) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine established in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; (iii) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural variability, including the impact of gravity waves; and (iv) the resulting amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar observations of ∼2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiquitous sulfate-water aerosols; this, in turn, engages the element of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the central United States in summer based upon the same reaction network that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summertime development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to increased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO2 and CH4.

Stratospheric solar geoengineering without ozone loss.

Injecting sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere, the most frequently analyzed proposal for solar geoengineering, may reduce some climate risks, but it would also entail new risks, including ozone loss and heating of the lower tropical stratosphere, which, in turn, would increase water vapor concentration causing additional ozone loss and surface warming. We propose a method for stratospheric aerosol climate modification that uses a solid aerosol composed of alkaline metal salts that will convert hydrogen halides and nitric and sulfuric acids into stable salts to enable stratospheric geoengineering while reducing or reversing ozone depletion. Rather than minimizing reactive effects by reducing surface area using high refractive index materials, this method tailors the chemical reactivity. Specifically, we calculate that injection of calcite (CaCO3) aerosol particles might reduce net radiative forcing while simultaneously increasing column ozone toward its preanthropogenic baseline. A radiative forcing of -1 W⋅m-2, for example, might be achieved with a simultaneous 3.8% increase in column ozone using 2.1 Tg⋅y-1 of 275-nm radius calcite aerosol. Moreover, the radiative heating of the lower stratosphere would be roughly 10-fold less than if that same radiative forcing had been produced using sulfate aerosol. Although solar geoengineering cannot substitute for emissions cuts, it may supplement them by reducing some of the risks of climate change. Further research on this and similar methods could lead to reductions in risks and improved efficacy of solar geoengineering methods.

Stratospheric controlled perturbation experiment: a small-scale experiment to improve understanding of the risks of solar geoengineering.

Although solar radiation management (SRM) through stratospheric aerosol methods has the potential to mitigate impacts of climate change, our current knowledge of stratospheric processes suggests that these methods may entail significant risks. In addition to the risks associated with current knowledge, the possibility of 'unknown unknowns' exists that could significantly alter the risk assessment relative to our current understanding. While laboratory experimentation can improve the current state of knowledge and atmospheric models can assess large-scale climate response, they cannot capture possible unknown chemistry or represent the full range of interactive atmospheric chemical physics. Small-scale, in situ experimentation under well-regulated circumstances can begin to remove some of these uncertainties. This experiment-provisionally titled the stratospheric controlled perturbation experiment-is under development and will only proceed with transparent and predominantly governmental funding and independent risk assessment. We describe the scientific and technical foundation for performing, under external oversight, small-scale experiments to quantify the risks posed by SRM to activation of halogen species and subsequent erosion of stratospheric ozone. The paper's scope includes selection of the measurement platform, relevant aspects of stratospheric meteorology, operational considerations and instrument design and engineering.

Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa.

Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.