Comparison of alternatives to passive surveillance to detect foot and mouth disease incursions in Victoria, Australia.

This study aimed to evaluate strategies to enhance the early detection of foot and mouth disease incursions in Australia. Two strategies were considered. First, improving the performance of the current passive surveillance system. Second, supplementing the current passive system with active surveillance strategies based on testing animals at saleyards or through bulk milk testing of dairy herds. Simulation modelling estimated the impact of producer education and awareness by either increasing the daily probability that a farmer will report the presence of diseased animals or by reducing the proportion of the herd showing clinical signs required to trigger a disease report. Both increasing the probability of reporting and reducing the proportion of animals showing clinical signs resulted in incremental decreases in the time to detection, the size and the duration of the outbreak. A gold standard system in which all producers reported the presence of disease once 10% of the herd showed clinical signs reduced the median time to detection of the outbreak from 20 to 15days, the duration of the subsequent outbreak from 53 to 42days and the number of infected farms from 46 to 32. Bulk milk testing reduced the median time to detection by two days and the number of infected farms by six but had no impact on the duration of the outbreak. Screening of animals at saleyards provided no improvement over the current passive surveillance system alone while having significant resource issues. It is concluded that the most effective way to achieve early detection of incursions of foot and mouth disease into Victoria, Australia is to invest in improving producer reporting.

Assessing the delay to detection and the size of the outbreak at the time of detection of incursions of foot and mouth disease in Australia.

The time delay to detection of an outbreak of an emergency animal disease directly affects the size of the outbreak at detection and the likelihood that the disease can be eradicated. This time delay is a direct function of the efficacy of the surveillance system in the country involved. Australia has recently completed a comprehensive review of its general surveillance system examining regional variation in both the behaviour of modelled outbreaks of foot and mouth disease and the likelihood that each outbreak will be detected and reported to government veterinary services. The size of the outbreak and the time delay from introduction to the point where 95% confidence of detection was reached showed significant (p < 0.05) regional variation with the more remote northern areas experiencing smaller outbreaks that are less likely to spread and less likely to be reported to government services than outbreaks in the more developed southern areas of Australia. Outbreaks in the more densely populated areas may take up to 43 days until a 95% confidence of detection is achieved and at that time, the outbreak may involve up to 53 farms.

Estimating Resource Requirements to Staff a Response to a Medium to Large Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Australia.

A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.

Cattle movement patterns in Australia: an analysis of the NLIS database 2008-2012.

OBJECTIVE: To identify patterns of cattle movement that could influence disease spread in the Australian cattle population. METHODS: Records from the National Livestock Identification System database for the period January 2008 to December 2012 were accessed and analysed. Postcodes were used to allocate each individual property to one of 12 livestock production regions. National movement patterns and the characteristics of each livestock production region were quantified in terms of the number of consignments and animals moved, and seasonality of movements. RESULTS: The majority of cattle movements remained within a single livestock production region, while those that did not, usually remained within the same state or territory. Producers were the most common source of cattle, and abattoirs and other producers the most common destinations, with approximately 40% of animals moving via a saleyard. The northern regions generally moved larger consignments than the southern regions and were less connected to other regions. The eastern and south-eastern regions were very well connected by cattle movements. Seasonal patterns were seen for some regions, particularly the northern regions where weather patterns strongly influence the ability of producers to muster and transport stock. CONCLUSIONS: The movement patterns observed provide quantitative support for previous information based on surveys and expert opinion, and capture more of the variability in Australian cattle production. This information may assist with management of animal disease risks, in particular exotic diseases, and in planning surveillance programs.

Assessing the efficacy of general surveillance for detection of incursions of livestock diseases in Australia.

Australia, as a relatively isolated country with a high level of agricultural production, depends on, and has the opportunity to maintain, freedom from a range of important diseases of livestock. Occasional incursions of such diseases are generally detected by 'passive', general surveillance (GS). In current surveillance planning, a risk-based approach has been taken to optimising allocation of resources to surveillance needs, and having mapped the relative risk of introduction and establishment of diseases of concern, a means of mapping the efficacy of GS for their detection was required, as was a means of assessing the likely efficacy of options for improving GS efficacy if needed. This paper presents the structure and application of a tool for estimating the efficacy of Australia's GS, using the example of foot and mouth disease (FMD). The GS assessment tool (GSAT) is a stochastic spreadsheet model of the detection, diagnosis and reporting of disease on a single infected farm. It utilises the output of an intraherd disease spread model to determine the duration and prevalence of infection on different types of farm. It was applied separately to each of twelve regions of Australia, demarcated by dominant livestock production practices. Each region supplied estimates of probabilities relevant to the detection of FMD, for each of fourteen farm types and all species susceptible to the disease. Outputs of the GSAT were the average probability that FMD on the farm would be detected (single farm sensitivity), the average time elapsed from incursion of the disease to the chief veterinary officer (CVO) being notified (time to detection), and the number of average properties that would need to be infected before the CVO could be 95% confident of detecting at least one. The median single farm sensitivity for FMD varied among regions from 0.23 to 0.52, the median time to detection from 20 to 33 days, and the number of properties infected for 95% confidence of detecting at least one from 4 to 12. The GSAT has proved a valuable tool in planning surveillance for detection of exotic livestock disease in Australia, and it provides a practical example of the use of probabilistic modelling to answer important questions in the face of imperfect information.

Spatial and temporal evaluation of veterinarians and veterinary employers relative to human and domesticated animal populations in Australia 2002-2012.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the distribution of veterinarians, humans, domestic animals and non-private practice employers in Australia and assess whether a relationship exists between them. To identify trends in the number of veterinarians, humans and domestic animals between 2002 and 2012 that may influence future demands for veterinary services. METHODS: Australian data on registered veterinarians, veterinary practices, the human population and various domestic animal species were obtained for the years 2002, 2007 and 2012. The data were mapped to assess distribution and temporal trends in number and distribution were assessed. RESULTS: Nationally, registered veterinarians were distributed similarly to the general population, with a slight bias to regional areas. The number of veterinarians nationally increased both in absolute terms and relative to the human population between 2002 and 2012. Companion animals were distributed similarly to the human population and livestock occurred in highest density in the more productive agricultural areas. The areas with highest density of domestic animals were within 100 km of an existing veterinary practice. There was moderate correlation between the number of registered veterinarians and the number of people or companion animals, but poor correlation for livestock. The number of domestic animal species decreased between 2002 and 2012, with the exceptions of cattle and poultry. CONCLUSIONS: There is not a simple relationship between the number of veterinarians, people or domestic animals. Better data are needed to describe the drivers for demand for veterinary services and enable future workforce planning.

Evaluating the risk of avian influenza introduction and spread among poultry exhibition flocks in Australia.

Some practices undertaken by poultry exhibitors, such as allowing wild birds to contact domestic birds, the high frequency of bird movements and the lack of appropriate isolation for incoming birds, pose a risk for disease introduction and spread. The aim of the current study was to quantitatively assess the probability of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses from wild waterfowl into poultry exhibition flocks and the subsequent spread to other poultry flocks. Exposure and consequence assessments, using scenario trees and Monte Carlo stochastic simulation modelling, were conducted to identify potential pathways of introduction and spread and calculate the probabilities of these pathways occurring. Input parameters were estimated from two recently conducted cross-sectional studies among poultry exhibitors in Australia (Dusan et al., 2010; Hernández-Jover et al., 2013) and other scientific literature. According to reported practices of poultry exhibitors and the LPAI prevalence in wild birds in Australia, this assessment estimates a median (5-95%) probability of exposure of a bird kept by a poultry exhibitor of 0.004 (0.003-0.005). Due to the higher susceptibility of infection of turkeys and waterfowl, this probability is higher in flocks keeping these bird species than in those keeping chickens or pigeons only. Similarly, once exposure has occurred, establishment of infection and subsequent spread are more likely in those flocks keeping waterfowl and turkeys than in those keeping chicken and pigeons only. Spread through movement of birds is the most likely pathway of spread, followed by contaminated fomites, wild birds and airborne spread. The median probability of LPAI spread through movement of birds in flocks keeping waterfowl and turkeys was estimated to be 0.280 (0.123-0.541) and 0.230 (0.104-0.421), respectively. A lower probability was estimated for chicken (0.087; 0.027-0.202) and pigeon (0.0003; 3.0×10(-5)-0.0008) flocks. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the prevalence of LPAI in wild waterfowl and the probability of contact of domestic birds with wild waterfowl are the most influential parameters on the probability of exposure; while the probability of spread is mostly influenced by the probability of movement of birds and the probability of the exhibitor detecting and reporting LPAI. To minimize the potential risk of AI introduction and spread, poultry exhibitors should prevent contact of domestic birds with wild birds, and implement appropriate biosecurity practices. In addition, adequate extension services are required to improve exhibitors' abilities to recognize diseases and reporting behaviour.

Options for managing animal welfare on intensive pig farms confined by movement restrictions during an outbreak of foot and mouth disease.

An outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Australia would trigger a major disease control and eradication program that would include restriction of movement of live animals within defined disease control zones. Experiences from outbreaks in other countries show that restrictions that limit the ability to turn off stock can lead to animal welfare compromise on intensively managed farms that are not infected with the disease. Intensive pig farms are considered to be at high risk of developing welfare problems during a control program due to the imposed movement restrictions and limited space available to house growing pigs. This study was designed to investigate strategies that could be used to mitigate animal welfare problems on intensive pig farms during a simulated outbreak of foot and mouth disease in a livestock dense region of Australia. Three strategies for managing farms affected by animal welfare problems were assessed, including on-farm culling of grower and finisher pigs, on-farm culling of finisher pigs only, and permit-based movement of finisher pigs to slaughter at abattoir. Under traditional approaches of giving infected premises (IP) priority over culling of farms with welfare problems (WP), delays of up to 25 days were experienced prior to culling of WPs. Deployment of vaccination did little to reduce the delay to culling of WPs. These delays were sensitive to resources available for control, with reduced resources increasing the time until welfare problems were addressed. Assigning equal priority to all farms requiring culling regardless of status as IP or WP and culling each as they arose reduced the delay to culling of WPs to no more than 4 days without large increases in either the duration or the size of the outbreaks observed.

The spatial and temporal variation of the distribution and prevalence of Atlantic salmon reovirus (TSRV) infection in Tasmania, Australia.

Atlantic salmon reovirus (TSRV) has been consistently isolated from Atlantic salmon in Tasmania, since first identification in 1990 under the Tasmanian Salmonid Health Surveillance Program (TSHSP). The distribution and prevalence of TSRV was identified using TSHSP data. A data set of 730 fish submissions tested over a period of 15 years was reviewed and analysed to describe the spatial and temporal variation of TSRV in Tasmanian salmonid aquaculture production units. The virus was present throughout Tasmania with the highest reported prevalence of the virus in the south-east region of Tasmania.

Nomadic beekeeper movements create the potential for widespread disease in the honeybee industry.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the nomadic movements of Australian beekeepers and determine their potential to assist the spread of pests and diseases. METHODS: A questionnaire was mailed to all beekeepers in Australia who maintained >100 hives, requesting information on the location of their home base, locations used throughout the year and the crops that the bees fed on in each location. The information was analysed using network analysis software and a geographic information system. RESULTS: Nomadic Australian beekeepers formed a connected network linking 288 locations from central Queensland to western Victoria. A second, smaller network included 42 locations in south-eastern South Australia. Almond orchards in Robinvale and Boundary Bend and lucerne seed production in Keith were locations of major hive congregations driven by the opportunity to provide paid pollination services. In the 3 months after completion of almond pollination in August 2008, movement of hives occurred from Robinvale and Boundary Bend to 49 locations, ranging from south-east Queensland to south-west Victoria. DISCUSSION: The movements identified in this study highlight the potential for rapid spread of disease or pests throughout the beekeeping industry should an incursion occur.

Structure, dynamics and movement patterns of the Australian pig industry.

OBJECTIVE: To assess management practices and movement patterns that could influence the establishment and spread of exotic animal diseases (EAD) in pigs in Australia. METHODS: A literature review of published information and a telephone survey of 370 pig producers owning >10 pigs who were registered with the PigPass national vendor declaration scheme. RESULTS: The movement and marketing patterns of Australian pig producers interviewed were divided into two groups based predominantly on the size of the herd. Major pig producers maintain closed herds, use artificial insemination and market direct to abattoirs. Smaller producers continue to purchase from saleyards and market to other farms, abattoirs and through saleyards in an apparently opportunistic fashion. The role of saleyards in the Australian pig industry continues to decline, with 92% of all pigs marketed directly from farm to abattoir. CONCLUSIONS: This survey described movement patterns that will assist in modelling the potential spread of EAD in the Australian pig industry. Continued movement towards vertical integration and closed herds in the Australian pig industry effectively divides the industry into a number of compartments that mitigate against the widespread dissemination of disease to farms adopting these practices.

How do resources influence control measures during a simulated outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Australia?

An outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could seriously impact Australia's livestock sector and economy. As an FMD-free country, an outbreak would trigger a major disease control and eradication program that would include the culling of infected and at risk animals ('stamping out'), movement restrictions and zoo-sanitary measures. Additional control measures may also include pre-emptive culling or vaccination. However, it is unclear what disease strategy would be most effective under Australian conditions and different resource levels. Using a stochastic simulation model that describes FMD transmission between farms in a livestock dense region of Australia, our results suggest that using current estimates of human resource capacity for surveillance, infected premises operations and vaccination, outbreaks were effectively controlled under a stamping out strategy. However, under more constrained resource allocations, ring vaccination was more likely to achieve eradication faster than stamping out or pre-emptive culling strategies.

Use of a multi-criteria analysis framework to inform the design of risk based general surveillance systems for animal disease in Australia.

Australia is a major exporter of livestock and livestock products; a trade assisted by a favourable animal health status. However, increasing international travel and trade, land use changes and climatic change increase the risks of exotic and emerging diseases. At the same time, public sector resources for managing these risks are static or declining. Animal health authorities in Australia identified the need to develop a consistent national approach to surveillance that allocates resources according to risk. A study was undertaken to assess the relative likelihood of occurrence of eight significant diseases of concern to animal health authorities with the aim of producing risk maps to better manage animal disease surveillance. The likelihood of disease occurrence was considered in terms of the likelihood that a disease is introduced and the likelihood that the disease establishes and spreads. Pathways for introduction and exposure and for establishment and spread were identified and data layers representing the factors contributing to each pathway produced as raster maps. A multi-criteria analysis process was used to combine data layers into pathways and pathways into likelihood maps using weightings that reflect the relative importance of each layer and pathway. The likelihood maps for introduction and exposure and for establishment and spread were combined to generate national likelihood maps for each disease. To inform Australia's general surveillance system that exists to detect any disease of importance, the spatial profiles of the eight diseases were subsequently combined using weightings to reflect their relative consequences. The result was a map of relative likelihood of occurrence of any significant disease. Current surveillance activity was assessed by combining data layers for government disease investigations, proximity to vets and wildlife disease investigations. Comparison of the overall risk and current surveillance maps showed that the distribution of current effort was well matched to the distribution of risk.

Descriptive overview of the 2011 epidemic of arboviral disease in horses in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview and descriptive analysis of the 2011 arboviral disease epidemic in horses that involved three important Australian mosquito-borne viruses: Murray Valley encephalitis virus, West Nile virus (Kunjin strain) and Ross River virus. METHODS: Data from states affected between January and June 2011 were collated and comprised reports of horses showing signs of neuromuscular disease and the associated laboratory findings. A summary of the data is presented, together with a spatiotemporal analysis of cases and preliminary assessment of rainfall patterns and case distribution. RESULTS: A total of 982 cases of equine arboviral disease were reported across Australia between January and June 2011. The majority of cases were reported from south-east Australia and included horses that developed neurological signs consistent with encephalitis. It was the largest epidemic of equine arboviral disease in Australia's history. Two likely causes for this unprecedented epidemic were the unusual weather events that preceded the epidemic and the emergence of a new strain of Kunjin virus. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemic highlights to horse owners and policy makers the potential for future outbreaks of arboviral diseases and the need for vigilance. It also highlights the complex interactions among hosts, vectors and climatic conditions that are required for such an outbreak to occur.

The structure, dynamics and movement patterns of the Australian sheep industry.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the structure of Australia's sheep industries and the movement of sheep to enable examination of the potential for animal movements to spread disease between farms. PROCEDURE: The structure, size, marketing and movement patterns of Australian sheep farms was determined through (i) review of data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, (ii) interviews with producers and saleyard managers and (iii) expert opinion. RESULTS: Twelve geographic regions are described, based on the type and extent of sheep farming in each region. Five production sectors were identified within the Australian sheep industry, with the proportion of each varying between the geographic regions. Over the past 20 years, the industry has decreased in size and contracted from the northern and central areas of Australia. Movement of sheep onto the majority (79%) of properties was limited to the introduction of less than 50 stud rams annually, although cross-bred- and wether-based farms introduced up to 2000 sheep annually; 75% of sheep movements occurred over distances less than 200 km, but stud rams moved up to 500 km. An increasing percentage of movements off farms was direct to abattoirs and over 80% of sheep sold through saleyards were purchased by abattoirs. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of Australian sheep farms operate as self-replacing enterprises and introduce few stock. In addition, most sheep movements occur over distances of less than 200 km and therefore sheep movements within Australia have only a limited potential to spread disease over larger distances.

Evaluating the effectiveness of the response to equine influenza in the Australian outbreak and the potential role of early vaccination.

OBJECTIVE: To use modelling and epidemiological analyses to assess the effectiveness of control strategies employed during the equine influenza outbreak and determine if early vaccination might have had a beneficial effect. METHODS: Transmission of infection was modelled using stochastic, spatial simulation, based on data from 16 regions in New South Wales and Queensland over the first month of the outbreak. RESULTS: The model accurately represented the spread of infection in both space and time and showed that vaccination strategies would have reduced new infections by ∼60% and reduced the size of the infected area by 8-9%, compared to the non-vaccination baseline. CONCLUSION: When used in conjunction with biosecurity measures and movement controls, early vaccination could play an important role in the containment and eradication of equine influenza.

Evaluating the effectiveness of early vaccination in the control and eradication of equine influenza--a modelling approach.

In August 2007, Australia which had previously been free of equine influenza, experienced a large outbreak that lasted approximately 4 months before it was eradicated. The outbreak required a significant national response by government and the horse industries. The main components of the response were movement controls, biosecurity measures, risk-based zoning and, subsequently, vaccination to contain the outbreak. Although not initially used, vaccination became a key element in the eradication program, with approximately 140000 horses vaccinated. Vaccination is recognised as a valuable tool for managing EI in endemically infected countries but there is little experience using it in situations where the objective is disease eradication. Vaccination was undoubtedly an important factor in 2007 as it enabled movements of some horses and associated industry activities to recommence. However, its contribution to containment and eradication is less clear. A premises-level equine influenza model, based on an epidemiological analysis of the 2007 outbreak, was developed to evaluate effectiveness of the mitigation strategies used and to investigate whether vaccination, if applied earlier, would have had an effect on the course of the outbreak. The results indicate that early use of strategic vaccination could have significantly reduced the size of the outbreak. The four vaccination strategies evaluated had, by 1 month into the control program, reduced the number of new infections on average by 60% and the size of the infected area by 8-9%. If resources are limited, a 1 km suppressive ring vaccination around infected premises gave the best results, but with greater vaccination capacity, a 3 km ring vaccination was the most effective strategy. The findings suggest that as well as reducing clinical and economic impacts, vaccination when used with biosecurity measures and movement controls could play an important role in the containment and eradication of equine influenza.

Assessment of the risks of communicable disease transmission through the movement of poultry exhibited at agricultural shows in New South Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To assess biosecurity practices in the fancy poultry show sector that would influence the establishment and spread of exotic diseases in poultry in New South Wales. DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey of 105 fancy poultry exhibitors at seven agricultural shows. PROCEDURE: Exhibitors were interviewed about biosecurity practices on their farms and their knowledge of exotic diseases. Poultry stewards at 18 shows were interviewed about biosecurity practices at their shows. RESULTS: Although many exhibitors travelled only short distances to attend shows, some exhibitors attended up to 30 shows per year and travelled interstate to exhibit poultry. A network diagram revealed extensive connections and interactions of poultry throughout the eastern half of NSW. Five of 18 shows included cash sales without any record of purchasers; 46% of exhibitors reintroduced exhibited birds back into their flocks without a quarantine period; and 16% failed to wash cages used to transport the birds. There was a general awareness that exhibition of birds posed a risk to flock health, but knowledge of avian influenza and practices that could be adopted to minimise the risk of disease introduction was limited. CONCLUSIONS: The factors that could assist the establishment and spread of exotic diseases in poultry in NSW include the mixing of birds at shows, inadequate recording of exhibitor details at shows, inadequate biosecurity practices when reintroducing exhibited poultry back into flocks, cash sales associated with shows that did not include the collection of purchaser details, and inadequate identification of birds.

Seroconversion to avian influenza virus in free-range chickens in the Riverland region of Victoria.

BACKGROUND: Since 2005, H5N1 avian influenza (AI) has spread from South-East Asia to over 60 different countries, resulting in the direct death or slaughter of over 250,000,000 poultry. Migratory waterfowl have been implicated in this spread and in Australia there have been numerous isolations of low-pathogenicity AI virus from wild waterfowl and shorebirds. The Department of Human Services, Victoria maintains 10 sentinel free-range chicken flocks in the Riverland at locations that are populated by large numbers of waterfowl known to carry a range of strains of AI. OBJECTIVE: This study analysed historical samples collected in 1991-94 and 2003-06 from the library of serum samples for antibodies against AI to assess the potential for transfer of AI virus from wild waterfowl to free-range poultry. RESULTS: Of the 2000 serum samples analysed, 17 were positive for antibodies against AI and 87 were suspect, with a clustering of positive and suspect results in the years 1994, 2003 and 2004. There was also a clustering of positive samples at the site of the Barmah flock. Nine sequential sets of sera from individual chickens with at least one positive result were identified. Analysis of these sequential sets showed that infection was acquired on site but that the antibody response to AI infection was short-lived and was no longer detectable at 8 weeks after the positive finding. CONCLUSION: The surveillance of sentinel chickens is a potential avenue for monitoring the circulation of AI viruses and could provide an early warning system for the commercial poultry industries.