Baseline Stroke Risk and Efficacy of Dual-Antiplatelet Therapy: A Post Hoc Analysis of the POINT Trial.

BACKGROUND: High-risk transient ischemic attacks and minor ischemic strokes are followed by a variable risk of ischemic stroke. We aimed to determine how baseline stroke risk modified the efficacy of clopidogrel-aspirin (referred to here as dual-antiplatelet therapy [DAPT]) for transient ischemic attack and minor ischemic stroke. METHODS: We performed an unplanned secondary analysis of the POINT trial (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Ischemic Stroke). We first evaluated the associations of the CHA2DS2-VASc and stroke prognosis instrument II (SPI-II) scores with the risk of incident ischemic stroke and major hemorrhage (intracranial hemorrhage or major systemic hemorrhage). We then tested for heterogeneity of the relative and absolute treatment effect of DAPT relative to aspirin across low- and high-risk patient subgroups. RESULTS: A total of 4841 trial participants were included in this analysis, with 2400 participants assigned to treatment with short-term DAPT and 2430 participants to treatment with aspirin and placebo. The dichotomized SPI-II score, but not the CHA2DS2-VASc score (P=0.18), was associated with the risk of incident ischemic stroke. A high-risk SPI-II score (>3) was associated with greater risk of incident ischemic stroke (hazard ratio of incident ischemic stroke relative to low-risk SPI-II score of 1.84 [95% CI, 1.44-2.35]; P<0.001) and numerically greater risk of major hemorrhage though not meeting statistical significance (hazard ratio, 1.80 [95% CI, 0.90-3.57]; P=0.10). The relative risk reduction with DAPT was similar across SPI-II strata (Pinteraction=0.31). The absolute risk reduction for ischemic stroke with DAPT compared with aspirin was nearly 4-fold higher (2.80% versus 0.76%; number needed to treat, 31 versus 131) in the high-risk SPI-II stratum relative to the low-risk stratum. The absolute risk increase for major hemorrhage with DAPT compared with aspirin was 3-fold higher (0.84% versus 0.30%; number needed to harm, 119 versus 331) in the high-risk SPI-II stratum relative to the low-risk stratum. CONCLUSIONS: Stratification by baseline stroke risk identifies a patient subgroup that derives greater absolute benefit from treatment with DAPT. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00991029.

Colchicine in High-risk Patients with Acute Minor-to-moderate Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack (CHANCE-3): Rationale and design of a multicenter randomized placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Anti-inflammatory therapy using colchicine has reduced recurrent vascular events in patients with coronary heart disease. DESIGN: Colchicine in High-risk Patients with Acute Minor-to-moderate Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack (CHANCE-3) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled multicenter trial, in which 8,238 patients with acute minor-to-moderate ischemic stroke (NIHSS ⩽ 5) or high-risk transient ischemic attack (TIA) (ABCD2 score ⩾4) and a high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) level of ⩾2 mg/L will be randomly assigned within 24 h of symptom onset to colchicine (1 mg daily on days 1-3, followed by 0.5 mg daily for a total of 90 days) or matching placebo, on a background of optimal medical therapy. The study will have 90% power to detect a 25% reduction in the primary efficacy outcome of any stroke within 3 months of randomization. Adverse events potentially related to the use of colchicine will also be analyzed. The primary analysis will be by intention to treat. TRIAL REGISTRY NAME: Colchicine in High-risk Patients with Acute Minor-to-moderate Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack (CHANCE-3); URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05439356?cond=CHANCE-3&draw=2&rank=1; Registration number: NCT05439356.

Subsequent ischemic stroke and tobacco smoking: A secondary analysis of the POINT trial.

Background: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of smoking status on subsequent stroke risk in patients with minor ischemic stroke or TIA and to determine whether smoking modifies the effect of clopidogrel-based DAPT on subsequent stroke risk. Methods: This was a post-hoc analysis of the Platelet Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) trial, which had a 90-day follow-up period. We used multivariable Cox regression and subgroup interaction analysis to determine the effect of smoking on the risk of subsequent ischemic stroke and major hemorrhage, respectively. Results: Data from 4877 participants enrolled in the POINT trial were analyzed. Among these, 1004 were current smokers and 3873 were non-smokers at the time of index event. Smoking was associated with a non-significant trend toward an increased risk of subsequent ischemic stroke during follow up (adjusted HR, 1.31 (95% CI, 0.97-1.78), p = 0.076). The effect of clopidogrel on ischemic stroke did not differ between non-smokers (HR, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.56-0.98), p = 0.03) and smokers (HR, 0.63 (95% CI, 0.37-1.05), p = 0.078), p for interaction = 0.572. Similarly, the effect of clopidogrel on major hemorrhage did not differ between non-smokers (hazard ratio, 1.67 (95% CI, 0.40-7.00), p = 0.481) and smokers (HR, 2.59 (95% CI, 1.08-6.21), p = 0.032), p for interaction = 0.613. Conclusions: In this post-hoc analysis of the POINT trial we found that the effect of clopidogrel on reducing subsequent ischemic stroke as well as risk of major hemorrhage did not depend on smoking status, indicating that smokers benefit to a similar degree from DAPT as non-smokers.

Predictors of Recurrent Stroke After Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source in the RE-SPECT ESUS Trial.

Background We sought to determine recurrent stroke predictors among patients with embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS). Methods and Results We applied Cox proportional hazards models to identify clinical features associated with recurrent stroke among participants enrolled in RE-SPECT ESUS (Randomized, Double-Blind, Evaluation in Secondary Stroke Prevention Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of the Oral Thrombin Inhibitor Dabigatran Etexilate Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) trial, an international clinical trial evaluating dabigatran versus aspirin for patients with ESUS. During a median follow-up of 19 months, 384 of 5390 participants had recurrent stroke (annual rate, 4.5%). Multivariable models revealed that stroke or transient ischemic attack before the index event (hazard ratio [HR], 2.27 [95% CI, 1.83-2.82]), creatinine clearance <50 mL/min (HR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.23-2.32]), male sex (HR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.27-2.02]), and CHA2DS2-VASc ≥4 (HR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.15-2.08] and HR, 1.66 [95% CI, 1.21-2.26] for scores of 4 and ≥5, respectively) versus CHA2DS2-VASc of 2 to 3, were independent predictors for recurrent stroke. Conclusions In RE-SPECT ESUS trial, expected risk factors previously linked to other common stroke causes were associated with stroke recurrence. These data help define high-risk groups for subsequent stroke that may be useful for clinicians and for researchers designing trials among patients with ESUS. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02239120.

Review and update of the concept of embolic stroke of undetermined source.

Ischaemic strokes have traditionally been classified according to the TOAST criteria, in which strokes with unclear aetiology are classified as cryptogenic strokes. However, the definition of cryptogenic stroke did not meet the operational criteria necessary to define patient populations for randomized treatment trials. To address this problem, the concept of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) was developed and published in 2014. A hypothesis that underpinned this concept was that most strokes in patients with ESUS are caused by embolic events, perhaps many cardioembolic, and that anticoagulation would prevent secondary ischaemic events. On this basis, two large randomized trials were conducted to compare the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) dabigatran and rivaroxaban with aspirin. Neither NOAC was superior to aspirin in these trials, although subgroups of patients with ESUS seemed to benefit specifically from anticoagulation or antiplatelet therapy. The neutral results of the trials of anticoagulation and insights into ESUS from research conducted since the concept was introduced warrant reassessment of the ESUS construct as a research concept and a treatment target. In this Review, we discuss the evidence produced since the concept of ESUS was introduced, and propose updates to the criteria and diagnostic algorithm in light of the latest knowledge.

Infarct on Brain Imaging, Subsequent Ischemic Stroke, and Clopidogrel-Aspirin Efficacy: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: In the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) trial, acute treatment with clopidogrel-aspirin was associated with significantly reduced risk of recurrent stroke. There may be specific patient groups who are more likely to benefit from this treatment. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the association of clopidogrel-aspirin with stroke recurrence in patients with minor stroke or high-risk transient ischemic attack (TIA) is modified by the presence of infarct on imaging attributed to the index event (index imaging) among patients enrolled in the POINT Trial. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In the POINT randomized clinical trial, patients with high-risk TIA and minor ischemic stroke were enrolled at 269 sites in 10 countries in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand from May 28, 2010, to December 19, 2017. In this post hoc analysis, patients were divided into 2 groups according to whether they had an acute infarct on index imaging. All POINT trial participants with information available on the presence or absence of acute infarct on index imaging were eligible for this study. Univariable Cox regression models evaluated associations between the presence of an infarct on index imaging and subsequent ischemic stroke and evaluated whether the presence of infarct on index imaging modified the association of clopidogrel-aspirin with subsequent ischemic stroke risk. Data were analyzed from July 2020 to May 2021. EXPOSURES: Presence or absence of acute infarct on index imaging. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome is whether the presence of infarct on index imaging modified the association of clopidogrel-aspirin with subsequent ischemic stroke risk. RESULTS: Of the 4881 patients enrolled in POINT, 4876 (99.9%) met the inclusion criteria (mean [SD] age, 65 [13] years; 2685 men [55.0%]). A total of 1793 patients (36.8%) had an acute infarct on index imaging. Infarct on index imaging was associated with ischemic stroke during follow-up (hazard ratio [HR], 3.68; 95% CI, 2.73-4.95; P < .001). Clopidogrel-aspirin vs aspirin alone was associated with decreased ischemic stroke risk in patients with an infarct on index imaging (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.41-0.77; P < .001) compared with those without an infarct on index imaging (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.74-1.65; P = .62), with a significant interaction association (P for interaction = .008). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, the presence of an acute infarct on index imaging was associated with increased risk of recurrent stroke and a more pronounced benefit from clopidogrel-aspirin. Future work should focus on validating these findings before targeting specific patient populations for acute clopidogrel-aspirin treatment.

Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation Development in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: An Analysis of the RE-SPECT ESUS Trial.

BACKGROUND: A proportion of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source have silent atrial fibrillation (AF) or develop AF after the initial evaluation. Better understanding of the risk for development of AF is critical to implement optimal monitoring strategies with the goal of preventing recurrent stroke attributable to underlying AF. The RE-SPECT ESUS trial (Randomized, Double-Blind Evaluation in Secondary Stroke Prevention Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of the Oral Thrombin Inhibitor Dabigatran Etexilate Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) provides an opportunity to assess predictors for developing AF and associated recurrent stroke. METHODS: RE-SPECT ESUS was a randomized, controlled trial (564 sites, 42 countries) assessing dabigatran versus aspirin for the prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. Of 5390 patients enrolled and followed for a median of 19 months, 403 (7.5%) were found to develop AF reported as an adverse event or using cardiac monitoring per standard clinical care. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were performed to define predictors of AF. RESULTS: In the multivariable model, older age (odds ratio for 10-year increase, 1.99 [95% CI, 1.78-2.23]; P<0.001), hypertension (odds ratio, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.03-1.79]; P=0.0304), diabetes (odds ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.56-0.96]; P=0.022), and body mass index (odds ratio for 5-U increase, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.16-1.43]; P<0.001) were independent predictors of AF during the study. In a sensitivity analysis restricted to 1117 patients with baseline NT-proBNP (N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide) measurements, only older age and higher NT-proBNP were significant independent predictors of AF. Performance of several published predictive models was assessed, including HAVOC (AF risk score based on hypertension, age ≥75 years, valvular heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, obesity, congestive heart failure, and coronary artery disease) and CHA2DS2-VASc (stroke risk score based on congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years [doubled], diabetes, previous stroke, transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism [doubled], vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years, and sex category [female]) scores, and higher scores were associated with higher rates of developing AF. CONCLUSIONS: Besides age, the most important variable, several other factors, including hypertension, higher body mass index, and lack of diabetes, are independent predictors of AF after embolic stroke of undetermined source. When baseline NT-proBNP was available, only older age and elevation of this biomarker were predictive of subsequent AF. Understanding who is at higher risk of developing AF will assist in identifying patients who may benefit from more intense, long-term cardiac monitoring. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02239120.

Antiplatelet Use and Ischemic Stroke Risk in Minor Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: A Post Hoc Analysis of the POINT Trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Dual antiplatelet therapy has been shown to reduce the risk of recurrent stroke in patients with minor stroke or transient ischemic attack. However, whether the effect of dual antiplatelet therapy is modified by pretreatment antiplatelet status is unclear. METHODS: This is a post hoc analysis of the POINT trial (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke). Patients were divided into 2 groups based on pretreatment antiplatelet use. The primary outcome was ischemic stroke within 90 days of randomization. RESULTS: We included 4881 patients of whom 41% belonged to the no pretreatment antiplatelet. Ischemic stroke occurred in 6% and 5% in the antiplatelet pretreatment and no antiplatelet pretreatment, respectively. Antiplatelet pretreatment was not associated with the risk of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.81-137]) or risk of major hemorrhage (hazard ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.55-2.21]; P=0.794). The effect of dual antiplatelet therapy on recurrent ischemic stroke risk was not different in patients who were on antiplatelet before randomization (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.50-0.94]) as opposed to those who were not (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.50-1.12]), P for interaction = 0.685. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with minor stroke and high-risk transient ischemic attack, dual antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of ischemic stroke regardless of premorbid antiplatelet use.

Evaluation of Systolic Blood Pressure, Use of Aspirin and Clopidogrel, and Stroke Recurrence in the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke Trial.

Importance: Elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) after acute ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) is associated with future stroke risk. Objective: To explore the association of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) with stroke recurrence among patients with acute ischemic stroke and TIA with or without elevated baseline SBP. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study performed a post hoc subgroup analysis of the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) trial, which was a multicenter trial conducted from 2010 to 2018 at 269 sites in 10 countries in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. Patients enrolled in POINT with available blood pressure and outcome data were included in this cohort. Statistical analysis was performed from November 2020 to January 2021. Exposures: Baseline SBP less than 140 mm Hg vs greater than or equal to 140 mm Hg and the interaction term of SBP (<140 mm Hg vs ≥140 mm Hg) × treatment group (aspirin vs DAPT). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was ischemic stroke during 90 days of follow-up. The statistical analysis fit Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for patient age, race, premorbid hypertension, diabetes, and final diagnosis of the qualifying event (stroke vs TIA). Results: Among 4781 patients in the cohort, the mean (SD) age was 64.6 (13.1) years; 2142 (44.8%) were male individuals, 3487 (72.9%) were White individuals, and 266 (5.6%) had a primary outcome of ischemic stroke during follow-up. There were 946 patients (19.8%) with baseline SBP less than 140 mm Hg and 3835 (80.2%) with SBP greater than or equal to 140 mm Hg. The interaction term (SBP × treatment) was significant (P for interaction = .03). In the subgroup of patients with SBP less than 140 mm Hg, the hazard ratio (HR) of DAPT vs aspirin alone for ischemic stroke was 0.36 (95% CI, 0.18-0.72; P = .004), whereas the HR in the subgroup with SBP greater than or equal to 140 mm Hg was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.60-1.02; P = .08). When evaluating the outcome of ischemic stroke within 7 days of randomization, the interaction term was significant (P for interaction = .02), and the HR for patients with DAPT with SBP less than 140 mm Hg was 0.19 (95% CI, 0.07-0.55; P = .002). Conclusions and Relevance: In the POINT trial, patients with SBP less than 140 mm Hg at presentation received a greater benefit from 90 days of DAPT than those with higher baseline SBP, particularly for reduction of early ischemic stroke recurrence. Additional research is needed to replicate these findings and potentially test whether mild SBP reduction and DAPT within 12 hours of stroke onset lowers early risk of stroke recurrence.

Carotid Stenosis and Recurrent Ischemic Stroke: A Post-Hoc Analysis of the POINT Trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Randomized trials demonstrated the benefit of dual antiplatelet therapy in patients with minor ischemic stroke or high-risk transient ischemic attack. We sought to determine whether the presence of carotid stenosis was associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke and whether the addition of clopidogrel to aspirin was associated with more benefit in patients with versus without carotid stenosis. METHODS: This is a post-hoc analysis of the POINT trial (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke) that randomized patients with minor ischemic stroke or high-risk transient ischemic attack within 12 hours from last known normal to receive either clopidogrel plus aspirin or aspirin alone. The primary predictor was the presence of ≥50% stenosis in either cervical internal carotid artery. The primary outcome was ischemic stroke. We built Cox regression models to determine the association between carotid stenosis and ischemic stroke and whether the effect of clopidogrel was modified by ≥50% carotid stenosis. RESULTS: Among 4881 patients enrolled POINT, 3941 patients met the inclusion criteria. In adjusted models, ≥50% carotid stenosis was associated with ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratio, 2.45 [95% CI, 1.68-3.57], P<0.001). The effect of clopidogrel (versus placebo) on ischemic stroke risk was not significantly different in patients with <50% carotid stenosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.50-0.93], P=0.014) versus those with ≥50% carotid stenosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.45-1.72], P=0.703), P value for interaction=0.573. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of carotid stenosis was associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke during follow-up. The effect of added clopidogrel was not significantly different in patients with versus without carotid stenosis. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03354429.

Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation After Transient Ischemic Attack Versus Minor Ischemic Stroke in the POINT Trial.

Background Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) after transient ischemic attack (TIA) has not been well studied. We compared the likelihood of new AF diagnosis after ischemic stroke versus TIA. Methods and Results The POINT (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke) trial enrolled adults within 12 hours of minor ischemic stroke or high-risk TIA. Our exposure was index event type (ischemic stroke versus TIA). The primary analysis used the original trial definition of TIA (resolution of symptoms/signs). In secondary analyses, TIA cases with infarction on neuroimaging were reclassified as strokes. Our primary outcome was a new AF diagnosis, ascertained from adverse event and treatment interruption/discontinuation reports. We calculated C-statistics for variables associated with newly diagnosed AF. We used Kaplan-Meier survival statistics and Cox models adjusted for demographics and vascular risk factors. Excluding 49 subjects with baseline AF, 2746 patients had index stroke and 2086 patients had index TIA. During the 90-day follow-up, 106 patients had newly diagnosed AF. Cumulative risks of AF were 2.7% (95% CI, 2.1%-3.4%) after stroke and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.5%-2.7%) after TIA (P=0.15). After reclassifying index events by neuroimaging, cumulative AF risk was higher after stroke (2.7%; 95% CI, 2.2%-3.4%) than TIA (1.8%; 95% CI, 1.3%-2.5%) (P=0.04). Index event type had negligible predictive utility (C-statistic, 0.54). Conclusions Among patients with cerebral ischemia, the distinction between TIA versus minor stroke did not stratify the risk of subsequent AF diagnosis, implying that patients with TIA should undergo similar heart-rhythm monitoring strategies as patients with ischemic stroke.

Dabigatran or Aspirin in East Asian Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: RE-SPECT ESUS Subgroup Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We assessed the outcomes of dabigatran versus aspirin in a prespecified subgroup analysis of East Asian patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source in the RE-SPECT ESUS trial (Randomized, Double-Blind, Evaluation in Secondary Stroke Prevention Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of the Oral Thrombin Inhibitor Dabigatran Etexilate Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source). METHODS: Patients with a recent embolic stroke of undetermined source were randomized to dabigatran (150 or 110 mg BID) or aspirin (100 mg QD). The primary efficacy outcome was recurrent stroke; the primary safety outcome was major bleeding. The East Asia cohort was compared with patients from all other countries (non-East Asia cohort). RESULTS: Overall, 988 of 5390 patients (18%) were randomized in East Asia. During a median follow-up of 18.8 months, there was no statistically significant difference in recurrent stroke (hazard ratio, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.41-1.03]) or major bleeding (hazard ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.57-1.91]) in East Asian patients receiving dabigatran versus aspirin. Death from any cause occurred more often in the dabigatran versus the aspirin group (hazard ratio, 3.98 [95% CI, 1.32-12.01]). CONCLUSIONS: The treatment effect of dabigatran versus aspirin was consistent between cohorts, with no apparent superiority for dabigatran over aspirin in preventing recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02239120.

Dabigatran or Aspirin After Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source in Patients With Patent Foramen Ovale: Results From RE-SPECT ESUS.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Patent foramen ovale (PFO) may increase the risk of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Guidelines suggest anticoagulation may be more effective than antiplatelets in preventing stroke in patients with ESUS and PFO when interventional closure is not performed. METHODS: Patients with ESUS randomized to dabigatran (150/110 mg BID) or aspirin (100 mg QD) from the RE-SPECT ESUS study (Randomized, Double-Blind, Evaluation in Secondary Stroke Prevention Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of the Oral Thrombin Inhibitor Dabigatran Etexilate Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) were included. The rate of recurrent stroke (primary end point) and ischemic stroke was reported for patients with and without baseline PFO. A meta-analysis comparing the effects of anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy on ischemic stroke in patients with PFO was updated to include RE-SPECT ESUS. RESULTS: PFO was present in 680 of 5388 (12.6%) patients with documented PFO status. The risk of recurrent stroke with dabigatran versus aspirin was similar in patients with and without PFO (P for interaction, 0.8290). In patients with PFO, the meta-analysis found no statistically significant difference between anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy (odds ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.43-1.14]) for ischemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: There is insufficient evidence to recommend anticoagulation over antiplatelet therapy for patients with ESUS and a PFO. More data are needed to guide antithrombotic therapy in this population. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02239120.

Non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants for secondary stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation.

The aims of this article are to review the evidence regarding the use of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) for secondary stroke prevention as compared to vitamin K antagonists in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and in patients with embolic strokes of uncertain source (ESUS), and when to initiate or resume anticoagulation after an ischaemic stroke or intracranial haemorrhage. Four large trials compared NOACs with warfarin in patients with AF. In our meta-analyses, the rate of all stroke or systemic embolism (SE) was 4.94% with NOACs vs. 5.73% with warfarin. Among the patients with AF and previous transient ischaemic attack or ischaemic stroke, the rate of haemorrhagic stroke was halved with a NOAC vs. warfarin, and the rate of major bleeding was 5.7% with a NOAC vs. 6.4% with warfarin. There was no significant difference in mortality. In a trial comparing apixaban with aspirin in patients with AF, the rate of stroke or SE was 2.4% at 1 year with apixaban vs. 9.2% at 1 year with aspirin and the rates of major bleeding were 4.1% with apixaban vs. 2.9% with aspirin. Data from registries confirmed the results from the randomized trials. Initiation or resumption of anticoagulation after ischaemic stroke or cerebral haemorrhage depends on the size and severity of stroke and the risk of recurrent bleeding. Two large trials tested the hypothesis that NOACs are more effective than 100 mg aspirin in patients with ESUS. Neither trial showed a significant benefit of the NOAC over aspirin. In the meta-analysis, the rate all stroke or SE was 4.94% with NOACs vs. 5.73% with warfarin and the rate of haemorrhagic stroke was halved with a NOAC. The four NOACs had broadly similar efficacy for the major outcomes in secondary stroke prevention.

Methodologies for pragmatic and efficient assessment of benefits and harms: Application to the SOCRATES trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Standard approaches to trial design and analyses can be inefficient and non-pragmatic. Failure to consider a range of outcomes impedes evidence-based interpretation and reduces power. Traditional approaches synthesizing information obtained from separate analysis of each outcome fail to incorporate associations between outcomes and recognize the cumulative nature of outcomes in individual patients, suffer from competing risk complexities during interpretation, and since efficacy and safety analyses are often conducted on different populations, generalizability is unclear. Pragmatic and efficient approaches to trial design and analyses are needed. METHODS: Approaches providing a pragmatic assessment of benefits and harms of interventions, summarizing outcomes experienced by patients, and providing sample size efficiencies are described. Ordinal outcomes recognize finer gradations of patient responses. Desirability of outcome ranking is an ordinal outcome combining benefits and harms within patients. Analysis of desirability of outcome ranking can be based on rank-based methodologies including the desirability of outcome ranking probability, the win ratio, and the proportion in favor of treatment. Partial credit analyses, involving grading the levels of the desirability of outcome ranking outcome similar to an academic test, provides an alternative approach. The methodologies are demonstrated using the acute stroke or transient ischemic attack treated with aspirin or ticagrelor and patient outcomes study (SOCRATES; NCT01994720), a randomized clinical trial. RESULTS: Two 5-level ordinal outcomes were developed for SOCRATES. The first was based on a modified Rankin scale. The odds ratio is 0.86 (95% confidence interval = 0.75, 0.99; p = 0.04) indicating that the odds of worse stroke categorization for a trial participant assigned to ticagrelor is 0.86 times that of a trial participant assigned to aspirin. The 5-level desirability of outcome ranking outcome incorporated and prioritized survival; the number of strokes, myocardial infarction, and major bleeding events; and whether a stroke event was disabling. The desirability of outcome ranking probability and win ratio are 0.504 (95% confidence interval = 0.499, 0.508; p = 0.10) and 1.11 (95% confidence interval = 0.98, 1.26; p = 0.10), respectively, implying that the probability of a more desirable result with ticagrelor is 50.4% and that a more desirable result occurs 1.11 times more frequently on ticagrelor versus aspirin. CONCLUSION: Ordinal outcomes can improve efficiency through required pre-specification, careful construction, and analyses. Greater pragmatism can be obtained by composing outcomes within patients. Desirability of outcome ranking provides a global assessment of the benefits and harms that more closely reflect the experience of patients. The desirability of outcome ranking probability, the proportion in favor of treatment, the win ratio, and partial credit can more optimally inform patient treatment, enhance the understanding of the totality of intervention effects on patients, and potentially provide efficiencies over standard analyses. The methods provide the infrastructure for incorporating patient values and estimating personalized effects.

Efficacy of Clopidogrel for Prevention of Stroke Based on CYP2C19 Allele Status in the POINT Trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Clopidogrel is an antiplatelet drug that is metabolized to its active form by the CYP2C19 enzyme. The CHANCE trial (Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events) found a significant interaction between loss-of-function allele status for the CYP2C19 gene and the effect of dual antiplatelet therapy with aspirin and clopidogrel on the rate of early recurrent stroke following acute transient ischemic attack/minor stroke. The POINT (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke Trial), similar in design to CHANCE but performed largely in North America and Europe, demonstrated a reduction in early recurrent stroke with dual antiplatelet therapy compared with aspirin alone. This substudy was done to evaluate a potential interaction between loss-of-function CYP2C19 alleles and outcome by treatment group in POINT. METHODS: Of the 269 sites in 10 countries that enrolled patients in POINT, 134 sites participated in this substudy. DNA samples were genotyped for CYP2C19 *2, *3, and *17 alleles and classified as being carriers or noncarriers of loss-of-function alleles. Major ischemia consisted of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or ischemic vascular death. RESULTS: Nine hundred thirty-two patients provided analyzable DNA. The rates of major ischemia were 6.7% for the aspirin group versus 2.3% for the dual antiplatelet therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.09-1.21]; P=0.09) among carriers of loss-of-function allele. The rates of major ischemia were 5.6% for the aspirin group versus 3.7% for the dual antiplatelet therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.32-1.34]; P=0.25) among noncarriers. There was no significant interaction by genotype for major ischemia (P=0.36) or stroke (P=0.33). CONCLUSIONS: This substudy of POINT found no significant interaction with CYP2C19 loss-of-function carrier status and outcome by treatment group. Failure to confirm the findings from the CHANCE trial may be because the loss-of-function alleles tested are not clinically important in this context or because the 2 trials had differences in racial/ethnic composition. Additionally, differences between the 2 trials might be due to chance as our statistical power was limited to 50%. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00991029.

Antithrombotic Treatment of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: RE-SPECT ESUS Elderly and Renally Impaired Subgroups.

Background and Purpose- The RE-SPECT ESUS trial (Randomized, Double-Blind, Evaluation in Secondary Stroke Prevention Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of the Oral Thrombin Inhibitor Dabigatran Etexilate Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) tested the hypothesis that dabigatran would be superior to aspirin for the prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. This exploratory subgroup analysis investigates the impact of age, renal function (both predefined), and dabigatran dose (post hoc) on the rates of recurrent stroke and major bleeding. Methods- RE-SPECT ESUS was a multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial of dabigatran 150 or 110 mg (for patients aged ≥75 years and/or with creatinine clearance 30 to <50 mL/minute) twice daily compared with aspirin 100 mg once daily. The primary outcome was recurrent stroke. Results- The trial, which enrolled 5390 patients from December 2014 to January 2018, did not demonstrate superiority of dabigatran versus aspirin for prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. However, among the population qualifying for the lower dabigatran dose, the rate of recurrent stroke was reduced with dabigatran versus aspirin (7.4% versus 13.0%; hazard ratio, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.39-0.82]; interaction P=0.01). This was driven mainly by the subgroup aged ≥75 years (7.8% versus 12.4%; hazard ratio, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.43-0.94]; interaction P=0.10). Stroke rates tended to be lower with dabigatran versus aspirin with declining renal function. Risks for major bleeding were similar between treatments, irrespective of renal function, but with a trend for lower bleeding rates with dabigatran versus aspirin in older patients. Conclusions- In subgroup analyses of RE-SPECT ESUS, dabigatran reduced the rate of recurrent stroke compared with aspirin in patients qualifying for the lower dose of dabigatran. These results are hypothesis-generating. Aspirin remains the standard antithrombotic treatment for patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02239120.

Disability After Minor Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack in the POINT Trial.

Background and Purpose- While combination aspirin and clopidogrel reduces recurrent stroke compared with aspirin alone in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke, the effect on disability is uncertain. Methods- The POINT trial (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke) randomized patients with TIA or minor stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≤3) within 12 hours of onset to dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) with aspirin plus clopidogrel versus aspirin alone. The primary outcome measure was a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death. We performed a post hoc exploratory analysis to examine the effect of treatment on overall disability (defined as modified Rankin Scale score >1) at 90 days, as well as disability ascribed by the local investigator to index or recurrent stroke. We also evaluated predictors of disability. Results- At 90 days, 188 of 1964 (9.6%) of patients enrolled with TIA and 471 of 2586 (18.2%) of those enrolled with stroke were disabled. Overall disability was similar between patients assigned DAPT versus aspirin alone (14.7% versus 14.3%; odds ratio, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.82-1.14]; P=0.69). However, there were numerically fewer patients with disability in conjunction with a primary outcome event in the DAPT arm (3.0% versus 4.0%; odds ratio, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.53-1.01]; P=0.06) and significantly fewer patients in the DAPT arm with disability attributed by the investigators to either the index event or recurrent stroke (5.9% versus 7.4%; odds ratio, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.62-0.99]; P=0.04). Notably, disability attributed to the index event accounted for the majority of this difference (4.5% versus 6.0%; odds ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.57-0.96]; P=0.02). In multivariate analysis, age, subsequent ischemic stroke, serious adverse events, and major bleeding were significantly associated with disability in TIA; for those with stroke, female sex, hypertension, or diabetes mellitus, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, recurrent ischemic stroke, subsequent myocardial infarction, and serious adverse events were associated with disability. Conclusions- In addition to reducing recurrent stroke in patients with acute minor stroke and TIA, DAPT might reduce stroke-related disability. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00991029.