Modeling nitrate at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California.

Aquifer vulnerability models were developed to map groundwater nitrate concentration at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California. We compared three modeling methods for ability to predict nitrate concentration >4 mg/L: logistic regression (LR), random forest classification (RFC), and random forest regression (RFR). All three models indicated processes of nitrogen fertilizer input at the land surface, transmission through coarse-textured, well-drained soils, and transport in the aquifer to the well screen. The total percent correct predictions were similar among the three models (69-82%), but RFR had greater sensitivity (84% for shallow wells and 51% for deep wells). The results suggest that RFR can better identify areas with high nitrate concentration but that LR and RFC may better describe bulk conditions in the aquifer. A unique aspect of the modeling approach was inclusion of outputs from previous, physically based hydrologic and textural models as predictor variables, which were important to the models. Vertical water fluxes in the aquifer and percent coarse material above the well screen were ranked moderately high-to-high in the RFR models, and the average vertical water flux during the irrigation season was highly significant (p < 0.0001) in logistic regression.

A ternary age-mixing model to explain contaminant occurrence in a deep supply well.

The age distribution of water from a public-supply well in a deep alluvial aquifer was estimated and used to help explain arsenic variability in the water. The age distribution was computed using a ternary mixing model that combines three lumped parameter models of advection-dispersion transport of environmental tracers, which represent relatively recent recharge (post-1950s) containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), old intermediate depth groundwater (about 6500 years) that was free of drinking-water contaminants, and very old, deep groundwater (more than 21,000 years) containing arsenic above the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 10 µg/L. The ternary mixing model was calibrated to tritium, chloroflorocarbon-113, and carbon-14 (14C) concentrations that were measured in water samples collected on multiple occasions. Variability in atmospheric 14C over the past 50,000 years was accounted for in the interpretation of (14) C as a tracer. Calibrated ternary models indicate the fraction of deep, very old groundwater entering the well varies substantially throughout the year and was highest following long periods of nonoperation or infrequent operation, which occured during the winter season when water demand was low. The fraction of young water entering the well was about 11% during the summer when pumping peaked to meet water demand and about 3% to 6% during the winter months. This paper demonstrates how collection of multiple tracers can be used in combination with simplified models of fluid flow to estimate the age distribution and thus fraction of contaminated groundwater reaching a supply well under different pumping conditions.

Long-term changes in ground water chemistry at a phytoremediation demonstration site.

A field-scale demonstration project was conducted to evaluate the capability of eastern cottonwood trees (Populus deltoides) to attenuate trichloroethene (TCE) contamination of ground water. By the middle of the sixth growing season, trees planted where depth to water was <3 m delivered enough dissolved organic carbon to the underlying aquifer to lower dissolved oxygen concentrations, to create iron-reducing conditions along the plume centerline and sulfate-reducing or methanogenic conditions in localized areas, and to initiate in situ reductive dechlorination of TCE. Apparent biodegradation rate constants for TCE along the centerline of the plume beneath the phytoremediation system increased from 0.0002/d to 0.02/d during the first six growing seasons. The corresponding increase in natural attenuation capacity of the aquifer along the plume centerline, from 0.0004/m to 0.024/m, is associated with a potential decrease in plume-stabilization distance from 9680 to 160 m. Demonstration results provide insight into the amount of vegetation and time that may be needed to achieve cleanup objectives at the field scale.