Leveraging data science and machine learning for urban climate adaptation in two major African cities: a HE2AT Center study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: African cities, particularly Abidjan and Johannesburg, face challenges of rapid urban growth, informality and strained health services, compounded by increasing temperatures due to climate change. This study aims to understand the complexities of heat-related health impacts in these cities. The objectives are: (1) mapping intraurban heat risk and exposure using health, socioeconomic, climate and satellite imagery data; (2) creating a stratified heat-health forecast model to predict adverse health outcomes; and (3) establishing an early warning system for timely heatwave alerts. The ultimate goal is to foster climate-resilient African cities, protecting disproportionately affected populations from heat hazards. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The research will acquire health-related datasets from eligible adult clinical trials or cohort studies conducted in Johannesburg and Abidjan between 2000 and 2022. Additional data will be collected, including socioeconomic, climate datasets and satellite imagery. These resources will aid in mapping heat hazards and quantifying heat-health exposure, the extent of elevated risk and morbidity. Outcomes will be determined using advanced data analysis methods, including statistical evaluation, machine learning and deep learning techniques. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Wits Human Research Ethics Committee (reference no: 220606). Data management will follow approved procedures. The results will be disseminated through workshops, community forums, conferences and publications. Data deposition and curation plans will be established in line with ethical and safety considerations.

Multimorbidity and emergency hospitalisations during hot weather.

BACKGROUND: People with chronic diseases are a commonly listed heat-vulnerable group in heat-health action plans. While prior research identifies multiple health conditions that may increase vulnerability to ambient heat, there is minimal evidence regarding the implications of multimorbidity (two or more chronic diseases). METHODS: From the statewide hospital registry of Queensland, Australia, we identified people aged ≥15 years who had emergency hospitalisation(s) between March 2004 and April 2016 and previously had 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 of five chronic diseases: cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental disorders, asthma/COPD, and chronic kidney disease. We conducted time-stratified case-crossover analyses to estimate the odds ratio of hospitalisations associated with ambient heat exposure in people with different numbers, types, and combinations of chronic diseases. Ambient heat exposure was defined as a 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature above the median. FINDINGS: There were 2,263,427 emergency hospitalisations recorded (48.7% in males and 51.3% in females). When the mean temperature increased, hospitalisation odds increased with chronic disease number, particularly in older persons (≥65 years), males, and non-indigenous people. For instance, in older persons with 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 chronic diseases, the odds ratios associated with ambient heat exposure were 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.04), 1.06 (1.02, 1.09), 1.08 (1.02, 1.14), and 1.13 (1.07, 1.19), respectively. Among the chronic diseases, chronic kidney disease, and asthma/COPD, either existing alone, together, or in combination with other diseases, were associated with the highest odds of hospitalisations under ambient heat exposure. INTERPRETATION: While individuals with multimorbidity are considered in heat-health action plans, this study suggests the need to consider specifically examining them as a distinct and vulnerable subgroup. FUNDING: Wellcome.

Exploring interconnections: A comprehensive multi-country analysis of climate change, energy demand, long-term care, and health of older adults.

Challenges faced by many countries are energy insecurity, climate change, and the health and long-term care of growing numbers of older people. These challenges are increasingly intersecting with rising energy prices, aging populations, and an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. This paper gives a deeper understanding of the current and predicted interconnections among these challenges through narrative-driven content and thematic analysis from workshops with a diverse group of international stakeholders from the Global North and Global South. Narratives emerged highlighting a complex nexus of interconnections and presenting critical action areas. Targeted local and global policies and interventions are needed to alleviate stress on health systems, encourage the integrated uptake of clean energy sources, and uphold social justice across all economies. Professionals can use this work to inform the design and implementation of effective interventions and increase the resilience of older adults by better preparing for systemic risks.

Risk factors associated with heatwave mortality in Chinese adults over 65 years.

Aging populations are susceptible to heat-related mortality because of physiological factors and comorbidities. However, the understanding of individual vulnerabilities in the aging population is incomplete. In the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, we assessed daily heatwave exposure individually for 13,527 participants (median age = 89 years) and 3,249 summer mortalities during follow-up from 2008 to 2018. The mortality risk during heatwave days according to relative temperature is approximately doubled (hazard ratio (HR) range = 1.78-1.98). We found that heatwave mortality risks were increased for individuals with functional declines in mobility (HR range = 2.32-3.20), dependency in activities of daily living (HR range = 2.22-3.27), cognitive impairment (HR = 2.22) and social isolation reflected by having nobody to ask for help during difficulties (HR range = 2.14-10.21). Contrary to current understanding, older age was not predictive of heatwave mortality risk after accounting for individual functional declines; no statistical differences were detected according to sex. Beyond age as a risk factor, our findings emphasize that functional aging is an underlying factor in enhancing heatwave resilience. Assessment of functional decline and implementing care strategies are crucial for targeted prevention of mortality during heatwaves.

Protocol of an individual participant data meta-analysis to quantify the impact of high ambient temperatures on maternal and child health in Africa (HE2AT IPD).

INTRODUCTION: Globally, recognition is growing of the harmful impacts of high ambient temperatures (heat) on health in pregnant women and children. There remain, however, major evidence gaps on the extent to which heat increases the risks for adverse health outcomes, and how this varies between settings. Evidence gaps are especially large in Africa. We will conduct an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to quantify the impacts of heat on maternal and child health in sub-Saharan Africa. A detailed understanding and quantification of linkages between heat, and maternal and child health is essential for developing solutions to this critical research and policy area. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will use IPD from existing, large, longitudinal trial and cohort studies, on pregnant women and children from sub-Saharan Africa. We will systematically identify eligible studies through a mapping review, searching data repositories, and suggestions from experts. IPD will be acquired from data repositories, or through collaboration with data providers. Existing satellite imagery, climate reanalysis data, and station-based weather observations will be used to quantify weather and environmental exposures. IPD will be recoded and harmonised before being linked with climate, environmental, and socioeconomic data by location and time. Adopting a one-stage and two-stage meta-analysis method, analytical models such as time-to-event analysis, generalised additive models, and machine learning approaches will be employed to quantify associations between exposure to heat and adverse maternal and child health outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by ethics committees. There is minimal risk to study participants. Participant privacy is protected through the anonymisation of data for analysis, secure data transfer and restricted access. Findings will be disseminated through conferences, journal publications, related policy and research fora, and data may be shared in accordance with data sharing policies of the National Institutes of Health. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022346068.

Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change.

Manual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress. We computed PWC under recent past and potential future climate conditions. Daily values were computed from five earth system models for three emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and three time periods: 1991-2010 (recent past), 2041-2060 (mid-century) and 2081-2100 (end-century). Average daily PWC values were aggregated for the entire year, the growing season, and the warmest 90-day period of the year. Under recent past climate conditions, the growing season PWC was below 0.86 (86% of full work capacity) on half the current global cropland. With end-century/SSP5-8.5 thermal conditions this value was reduced to 0.7, with most affected crop-growing regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America. Average growing season PWC could falls below 0.4 in some important food production regions such as the Indo-Gangetic plains in Pakistan and India. End-century PWC reductions were substantially greater than mid-century reductions. This paper assesses two potential adaptions-reducing direct solar radiation impacts with shade or working at night and reducing the need for hard physical labor with increased mechanization. Removing the effect of direct solar radiation impacts improved PWC values by 0.05 to 0.10 in the hottest periods and regions. Adding mechanization to increase horsepower (HP) per hectare to levels similar to those in some higher income countries would require a 22% increase in global HP availability with Sub-Saharan Africa needing the most. There may be scope for shifting to less labor-intensive crops or those with labor peaks in cooler periods or shift work to early morning.

Commonly used indices disagree about the effect of moisture on heat stress.

Irrigation and urban greening can mitigate extreme temperatures and reduce adverse health impacts from heat. However, some recent studies suggest these interventions could actually exacerbate heat stress by increasing humidity. These studies use different heat stress indices (HSIs), hindering intercomparisons of the relative roles of temperature and humidity. Our method uses calculus of variations to compare the sensitivity of HSIs to temperature and humidity, independent of HSI units. We explain the properties of different HSIs and identify conditions under which they disagree. We highlight recent studies where the use of different HSIs could have led to opposite conclusions. Our findings have significant implications for the evaluation of irrigation and urban greening as adaptive responses to overheating and climate adaptation measures in general. We urge researchers to be critical in their choice of HSIs, especially in relation to health outcomes; our method provides a useful tool for making informed comparisons.

Methods for Quantifying, Projecting, and Managing the Health Risks of Climate Change.

Quantifying Health Risks of Climate ChangeA rapidly increasing literature base is quantifying associations between climate change and health outcomes. Here, Ebi reviews methods for quantifying, projecting, and managing the health risks of climate change.

Association between Precipitation and Diarrheal Disease in Mozambique

Diarrheal diseases are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa. Although research documents the magnitude and pattern of diarrheal diseases are associated with weather in particular locations, there is limited quantification of this association in sub-Saharan Africa and no studies conducted in Mozambique. Our study aimed to determine whether variation in diarrheal disease was associated with precipitation in Mozambique. In secondary analyses we investigated the associations between temperature and diarrheal disease. We obtained weekly time series data for weather and diarrheal disease aggregated at the administrative district level for 1997­2014. Weather data include modeled estimates of precipitation and temperature. Diarrheal disease counts are confirmed clinical episodes reported to the Mozambique Ministry of Health (n = 7,315,738). We estimated the association between disease counts and precipitation, defined as the number of wet days (precipitation > 1 mm) per week, for the entire country and for Mozambique's four regions. We conducted time series regression analyses using an unconstrained distributed lag Poisson model adjusted for time, maximum temperature, and district. Temperature was similarly estimated with adjusted covariates. Using a four-week lag, chosen a priori, precipitation was associated with diarrheal disease. One additional wet day per week was associated with a 1.86% (95% CI: 1.05­2.67%), 1.37% (95% CI: 0.70­2.04%), 2.09% (95% CI: 1.01­3.18%), and 0.63% (95% CI: 0.11­1.14%) increase in diarrheal disease in Mozambique's northern, central, southern, and coastal regions, respectively. Our study indicates a strong association between diarrheal disease and precipitation. Diarrheal disease prevention efforts should target areas forecast to experience increased rainfall. The burden of diarrheal disease may increase with increased precipitation associated with climate change, unless additional health system interventions are undertaken.

Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies.

Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission 'Managing the health effects of climate change' through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling the health co-benefits of climate policy provides policy-relevant information when the scenarios are reasonable, relevant, and thorough, and the model adequately addresses complexity. Greater consistency in selected modeling choices across the health co-benefits of climate mitigation research would facilitate evaluation of mitigation options particularly as they apply to the NDCs and promote policy uptake.

Carbon pollution increases health inequities: lessons in resilience from the most vulnerable / La contaminación por carbono empeora las inequidades sanitarias: enseñanzas de los más vulnerables sobre la capacidad de recuperación

Climate change is a social justice as well as an environmental issue. The magnitude and pattern of changes in weather and climate variables are creating differential exposures, vulnerabilities, and health risks that increase stress on health systems while exacerbating existing and creating new health inequities. Examples from national and local health adaptation projects highlight that developing partnerships across sectors and levels are critical for building climate- resilient health systems and communities. Strengthening current and implementing new health interventions, such as using environmental information to develop early warning systems, can be effective in protecting the most vulnerable. However, not all projected risks of climate change can be avoided by climate policies and programs, so health system strengthening is also critical. Applying a health inequity lens can reduce current vulnerabilities while building resilience to longer-term climate change. Taking inequities into account is critical if societies are to effectively prepare for and manage the challenges ahead.

El cambio climático es un asunto no solo ambiental, sino también de justicia social. La magnitud y naturaleza de los cambios observados en las variables de tiempo meteorológico y clima están llevando a exposiciones, vulnerabilidades y riesgos de salud diferenciales que incrementan la sobrecarga de los sistemas de salud y exacerban las inequidades sanitarias existentes, a la vez que generan nuevas inequidades. Los proyectos nacionales y locales de adaptación al cambio climático para proteger la salud humana ponen de manifiesto que la creación de alianzas entre diferentes sectores y en distintos niveles es fundamental para lograr que haya sistemas de salud y comunidades capaces de recuperarse de los efectos del clima. El fortalecimiento de las intervenciones de salud en curso y la aplicación de nuevas intervenciones, tales como el uso de información de tipo ambiental para crear sistemas de alerta temprana, pueden ser eficaces para proteger a los grupos más vulnerables. Sin embargo, no todos los riesgos previstos en relación con el cambio climático pueden evitarse por medio de políticas y programas climáticos, de manera que el fortalecimiento de los sistemas de salud también es fundamental. La aplicación de una óptica de inequidad sanitaria puede reducir las vulnerabilidades actuales y al mismo tiempo crear capacidad de recuperación frente a los efectos del cambio climático a más largo plazo. Si las sociedades han de prepararse para los retos que se avecinan y hacerles frente de una manera eficaz, es imprescindible que se tengan en cuenta las inequidades.

Carbon pollution increases health inequities: lessons in resilience from the most vulnerable / La contaminación por carbono empeora las inequidades sanitarias: enseñanzas de los más vulnerables sobre la capacidad de recuperación

ABSTRACT Climate change is a social justice as well as an environmental issue. The magnitude and pattern of changes in weather and climate variables are creating differential exposures, vulnerabilities, and health risks that increase stress on health systems while exacerbating existing and creating new health inequities. Examples from national and local health adaptation projects highlight that developing partnerships across sectors and levels are critical for building climate-resilient health systems and communities. Strengthening current and implementing new health interventions, such as using environmental information to develop early warning systems, can be effective in protecting the most vulnerable. However, not all projected risks of climate change can be avoided by climate policies and programs, so health system strengthening is also critical. Applying a health inequity lens can reduce current vulnerabilities while building resilience to longer-term climate change. Taking inequities into account is critical if societies are to effectively prepare for and manage the challenges ahead.

RESUMEN El cambio climático es un asunto no solo ambiental, sino también de justicia social. La magnitud y naturaleza de los cambios observados en las variables de tiempo meteorológico y clima están llevando a exposiciones, vulnerabilidades y riesgos de salud diferenciales que incrementan la sobrecarga de los sistemas de salud y exacerban las inequidades sanitarias existentes, a la vez que generan nuevas inequidades. Los proyectos nacionales y locales de adaptación al cambio climático para proteger la salud humana ponen de manifiesto que la creación de alianzas entre diferentes sectores y en distintos niveles es fundamental para lograr que haya sistemas de salud y comunidades capaces de recuperarse de los efectos del clima. El fortalecimiento de las intervenciones de salud en curso y la aplicación de nuevas intervenciones, tales como el uso de información de tipo ambiental para crear sistemas de alerta temprana, pueden ser eficaces para proteger a los grupos más vulnerables. Sin embargo, no todos los riesgos previstos en relación con el cambio climático pueden evitarse por medio de políticas y programas climáticos, de manera que el fortalecimiento de los sistemas de salud también es fundamental. La aplicación de una óptica de inequidad sanitaria puede reducir las vulnerabilidades actuales y al mismo tiempo crear capacidad de recuperación frente a los efectos del cambio climático a más largo plazo. Si las sociedades han de prepararse para los retos que se avecinan y hacerles frente de una manera eficaz, es imprescindible que se tengan en cuenta las inequidades.

Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts / Mudanças climáticas, ozônio troposférico e partículas suspensas: impactos na saúde

We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health, as well as studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and the impacts of these changes on morbidity/mortality. Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty are the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given the uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, increasing morbidity/mortality. There are few projections for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, because few studies have been conducted. More research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution-related health impacts.

Examinamos como as mudanças climáticas podem afetar o futuro das concentrações de ozônio troposférico e de partículas suspensas (PS), e o que uma mudança nas concentrações significaria para a saúde da população. Analisaram-se estudos que projetam os impactos das mudanças climáticas na qualidade do ar e morbidade/mortalidade. A mudança climática pode afetar a qualidade do ar local e regional com mudanças nas taxas de reações químicas, altura das camadas limite que afetam a mistura vertical de poluentes e mudanças nos padrões sinóticos de circulação atmosférica que gerenciam o transporte de poluentes. Dentre as fontes de incerteza, a mudança climática futura, emissões de poluentes do ar e seus precursores e como a vulnerabilidade da população poderá ser modificada no futuro. Devido às incertezas, as projeções sugerem que as mudanças climáticas aumentarão as concentrações de ozônio troposférico pelo menos nos países de alta renda, onde as emissões precursoras de ozônio são constantes, resultando em maior morbidade/mortalidade. Para os países de baixa e média renda, há poucas projeções. A evidência é menor para PS, pois há poucos estudos. É preciso mais pesquisa para compreender os possíveis impactos da mudança climática nos impactos à saúde relacionados à poluição do ar.

Методы оценки чувствительности здоровья человека и адаптации общественного здравоохранения к изменению климата

Климат меняется, и этот факт за последнее десятилетие стал ещё более очевидным. Согласно последним данным, связанные с этим изменения в температуре и количестве осадков уже сейчас оказывают неблагоприятное воздействие на здоровье населения. Бремя болезней, которое в будущем можно будет отнести на счёт изменения климата, будет отчасти зависеть от своевременности и действенности осуществляемых мер вмешательства. В ответ на эти меняющиеся угрозы Третья конференция на уровне министров по окружающей среде и охране здоровья, состоявшаяся в Лондоне в 1999 году, выдвинула рекомендацию и создании организационно-кадрового потенциала для проведения на национальном уровне оценок возможных воздействий изменчивости и изменения климата на здоровье людей. В рамках решения этой задачи и была подготовлена данная публикация, в которой вниманию органов государственного управления, ведомств здравоохранения, природоохранных и метеорологических учреждений как в промышленно-развитых, так и в развивающихся странах предлагается практическая информация о количественных и качественных методах оценки чувствительности здоровья человека и адаптации общественного здравоохранения к изменению климата.