The cardiovascular event reduction tool (CERT)--a simplified cardiac risk prediction model developed from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS).

The clinical decision to treat hypercholesterolemia is premised on an awareness of patient risk, and cardiac risk prediction models offer a practical means of determining such risk. However, these models are based on observational cohorts where estimates of the treatment benefit are largely inferred. The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) provides an opportunity to develop a risk-benefit prediction model from the actual observed primary event reduction seen in the trial. Five-year Cox model risk estimates were derived from all WOSCOPS subjects (n = 6,595 men, aged 45 to 64 years old at baseline) using factors previously shown to be predictive of definite fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Model risk factors included age, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL), current smoking, diabetes, family history of fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina, and treatment (placebo/ 40-mg pravastatin). All risk factors were expressed as categorical variables to facilitate risk assessment. Risk estimates were incorporated into a simple, hand-held slide rule or risk tool. Risk estimates were identified for 5-year age bands (45 to 65 years), 4 categories of TC/HDL ratio (<5.5, 5.5 to <6.5, 6.5 to <7.5, > or = 7.5), 2 levels of diastolic blood pressure (<90, > or = 90 mm Hg), from 0 to 3 additional risk factors (current smoking, diabetes, family history of premature fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina), and pravastatin treatment. Five-year risk estimates ranged from 2% in very low-risk subjects to 61% in the very high-risk subjects. Risk reduction due to pravastatin treatment averaged 31%. Thus, the Cardiovascular Event Reduction Tool (CERT) is a risk prediction model derived from the WOSCOPS trial. Its use will help physicians identify patients who will benefit from cholesterol reduction.

Cost and outcomes of Medicare reimbursement for HMO preventive services.

Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in a health maintenance organization (HMO) were randomized to a preventive services benefit package for 2 years or to usual care. At 24- and 48-month follow-ups, the treatment group had completed more advance directives, participated in more exercise, and consumed less dietary fat than the control group. Unexpectedly, more deaths occurred in the treatment group. Surviving treatment-group enrollees reported higher satisfaction with health, less decline in self-rated health status, and fewer depressive symptoms than surviving control participants. Despite these changes, the intervention did not yield lower cost per quality-adjusted life year in this historically prevention-oriented HMO.

Racial differences in the utilization of public mental health services in Washington State.

This study analyzed racial differences in the use of public outpatient mental health services in four regions of Washington State. Patients in this study were enrolled in the state's mental health management information system, which contains detailed information about patient characteristics and service utilization. There were distinct racial differences with respect to baseline characteristics, and even after adjusting for these characteristics and region of the state as well, racial differences in the type and amount of services used persisted. In particular, African-Americans were more likely to use crisis services and were less likely to use individual or group treatment. This previously reported finding requires further exploration.

Health-related quality-of-life assessment and planning for the pharmaceutical industry.

Health-related quality of life (HRQL) represents a patient-centered approach to assessing functional status and well-being that integrates the impact of both medical treatment and disease. The pharmaceutical industry is increasingly incorporating HRQL measures into the drug development process as part of a comprehensive outcomes evaluation. HRQL measures can be used to distinguish the effects of competing treatments, demonstrate trade-offs between survival and functional status and well-being, and provide comprehensive information on the effects of treatment on patient outcomes. Two main approaches have been used to measure HRQL: psychometric-based instruments and preference-based instruments. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages for the evaluation of pharmaceuticals, and no one approach can be recommended for all studies. The selection of HRQL measures for clinical trials requires attention to the appropriateness, psychometric characteristics, and practicality of the available instruments. The comprehensive evaluation of pharmaceutical treatments requires measures of HRQL as well as safety and clinical efficacy.

The implications for information system design of how health care costs are determined.

As the costs of health care assume increasing importance in national health policy, information systems will be required to supply better information about how costs are generated and how resources are distributed. Costs, as determined by accounting systems, often are inadequate for policy analysis because they represent resources consumed (expenditures) to produce given outputs but do not measure forgone alternative uses of the resources (opportunity costs). To accommodate cost studies at the program level and the system level, relational information systems must be developed that allow costs to be summed across individuals to determine an organization's costs, across providers to determine an individual patient's costs, and across both to determine system and population costs. Program level studies require that cost variables be grouped into variable costs that are tied to changes in volume of output and fixed costs that are allocated rationally. Data sources for program-level analyses are organizational financial statements, cost center accounting records, Medicare cost reports, American Hospital Association surveys, and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) cost distribution files. System-level studies are performed to predict future costs and to compare costs of alternative modes of treatment. System-level analyses aggregate all costs associated with individuals to produce population-based costs. Data sources for system-level analyses include insurance claims;n Medicare files; hospital billing records; and VA inpatient, outpatient, and management databases. Future cost studies will require the assessment of costs from all providers, regardless of organizational membership status, for all individuals in defined populations.

Prostate-specific antigen obtained under optimal conditions determines extracapsular adenocarcinoma of the prostate.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) obtained under optimal conditions with the presence or absence of organ-confined prostate cancer following radical prostatectomy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The medical records of 300 consecutive patients who underwent radical retropubic prostatectomy were retrospectively reviewed. Ninety-three patients were excluded who had a pre-operative PSA level potentially altered by various factors (prostate infection, manipulation or instrumentation). RESULTS: A pre-operative PSA value < 4 ng/mL accurately predicted pathologically confined disease in 42 of 51 patients (82%) which contrasted with extracapsular disease in 74 of 84 patients (88%) who had a PSA value > 10 ng/mL. One of the 53 patients with a PSA > 15 ng/mL had organ-confined disease at surgery. CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate that optimal serum PSA values correlate well with pathological stage.

Interpreting excess mortality in a prevention trial for older adults.

BACKGROUND: In a randomized trial evaluating preventive services for older adults excess mortality was observed in the treatment group. We examined four explanations: unbalance of baseline characteristics, unintended effects of the intervention, consequence of an autonomy intervention (including increased number of living wills in the treatment group), and chance. We focus here on the effects of the autonomy intervention. METHODS: Preparation of living wills in the treatment and control groups was compared both at baseline and follow-up. A linear predictor of mortality was used to identify participants at high risk of dying. Charts of these 200 participants were reviewed for evidence of serious medical events and resuscitation decisions. Rates of life-sustaining treatment were compared between treatment and controls using logistic regression. RESULTS: More living wills (65%) were noted for the treatment group than control group (47%) at follow-up. Thirty-six per cent of participants were identified as having a serious medical event; of these, participants in the treatment group were over twice as likely not to receive life-sustaining treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Advance directives contributed to excess deaths, indicating the success of the autonomy intervention.

A 12-year experience with enterovesical fistulas.

OBJECTIVES: To review our experience with enterovesical fistulas in order to determine the most accurate diagnostic studies and most effective method of treatment. METHODS: A retrospective record review of 76 patients who were diagnosed and treated for enterovesical fistulas over a 12-year period was performed. Data collection focused on presenting symptoms, urinary disease process, diagnostic studies, and methods of management. RESULTS: Diverticular disease was the primary etiologic factor in the majority of patients (59%), with colonic malignancy, granulomatous bowel disease, and radiation therapy accounting for the majority of the remainder. Cystoscopy (60%) and cystography (44%) were the most sensitive diagnostic studies. There was no statistical difference in the complication rate between groups treated with single or multistage repair. CONCLUSIONS: One-stage repair of enterovesical fistulas can be safely performed when the cause is diverticular or granulomatous bowel disease. Staged repairs may be more judicious in patients with large intervening pelvic abscesses or those in whom advanced malignancy or radiation changes are present.

Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: multicenter study of kidney and upper ureter versus middle and lower ureter treatments.

Six institutions throughout the United States participated in this study. Each center used a multifunctional flat table lithotriptor (Dornier MFL-5000) to treat 658 patients with kidney and upper ureteral stones (766 treatments) and 323 with middle and lower ureteral stones (391 treatments), for a total of 925 patients (1,157 treatments). Some patients received more than 1 treatment (that is the kidney and ureter), for a total of 981 patient events. Complete followup was available for 81% of the patients. The overall stone-free rate at followup of approximately 90 days was greater in the middle and lower ureter group (83%) than in the kidney and upper ureter group (67%). The proportion of single stones treated was greater for the former group (89.5%) than for the latter group (72%). A larger proportion (18%) of the middle and lower ureter group required 2 or more treatments to the targeted stone than did the kidney and upper ureter group (13%). Anesthesia was required or selected in only 26.7% of the kidney and upper ureteral stone patients and in 18.5% of those with middle and lower ureteral calculi, usually at the request of the patient or physician, or for performance of an adjunctive procedure. The relative safety of this treatment is demonstrated by a low overall rate of complications reported during and after treatment, including a ureteral obstruction rate of 2.1% for kidney and upper ureteral stones and 2.5% for middle and lower ureteral stones. There were no demonstrated trends in a review of laboratory data to suggest significant treatment side effects. The diastolic blood pressure increased to more than 95 mm. Hg after extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL*) in 6% of the kidney and upper ureteral and 4% of the middle and lower ureteral stone patients, while pretreatment hypertension resolved after ESWL in 11% of both groups. The results of this clinical evaluation indicate somewhat greater effectiveness for the specified indications of ESWL of stones in the ureter below the upper rim of the bony pelvis, as opposed to those in the kidney and upper ureter, with a low incidence of complications and side effects.

A comparison of the content of army family practice with nonfederal family practice.

BACKGROUND: To assist with planning for education and practice, family physicians should know the practice content of their practices. The present study compared the content of nonfederal family practice with Army family practice to explore their differences. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis that compared the similar variables within two national data sets: The National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and the Army's Ambulatory Care Data Base. RESULTS: Army patients were younger and more likely to be female than were nonfederal patients. Army family physicians spent more time with patients in all groups than did nonfederal family physicians. While 12 of the top 20 diagnosis clusters of each sector were the same, there were differences found in the percentages of total visits contained within the top 20 clusters. CONCLUSIONS: Both nonfederal and Army family practice have a wide variation in patients and diagnoses. The two sectors are different in patient age and the frequency of different diagnoses. Knowledge of these differences can assist with planning.

A cost evaluation of a hospital-based perinatal case management program.

A procedure to determine the costs of nursing care delivery for comparative analysis between a conventional hospital obstetrical nursing care delivery model and a redesigned hospital-based perinatal case management model of nursing care delivery is described.

The development and evaluation of hospital performance measures for policy analysis.

The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate hospital performance measures to include aspects of hospital behavior beyond the traditional use of hospital profit margins for policy analysis. A number of measures have been used in the literature that are purported to reflect a variety of hospital behaviors. The reliability and validity of these and new measures were assessed using descriptive statistics and factor analysis on a sample of hospitals for a 3-year period. The sample consisted of all hospitals for which there were Medicare Cost Report and balance sheet data during the federal fiscal years 1987 through 1989. Using a subset of three hospital groups, 33 measures were evaluated, from which five were selected to represent the critical aspects of hospital performance important for policy analysis. The measures are: TEM, a new technical efficiency measure using data envelopment analysis techniques; the current ratio, depicting short-term financial performance; the ratio of longterm debt-to-net fixed assets, representing long-term viability; total margin, portraying profitability; and Medicare margin, characterizing Medicare's contribution to hospital financial position. Each represents different aspects of hospital efficiency and financially viability.

Implications of the Adult Day Health Care Evaluation Study for program revision and research.

With no additional effort to revise adult day health care (ADHC) services or the types of patients who receive them, it would appear that adding an ADHC program to a VA Medical Center would not achieve the desired objectives. The authors discuss here the advantages, disadvantages, and feasibility of 2 options for program revision. The first is to target ADHC to those types of patients who may be most likely to benefit. A targeting scheme should use the most objective criteria possible and may need to be implemented as part of a case-managed package of community-based services. The second option for program revision is to reduce the costs of ADHC services. A cost model developed as a part of the study demonstrated the effect of possible revisions, including increasing enrollment, reducing staffing costs, decreasing length of stay in ADHC, and increasing substitution of ADHC for other services. These changes differ in the level of administrative support and clinician behavior change needed for their implementation. This report then concludes with a discussion of the implications of the results for implementation of VA-ADHC versus contract ADHC, and a discussion of possible directions for future research.

Data collection in the Adult Day Health Care Evaluation Study.

This report presents data collection measures and methods for the evaluation of Adult Day Health Care (ADHC) in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Measures of patient health were survival, the Sickness Impact Profile, self-rated health, the Mini-Mental State Exam, Psychological Distress Scale, Social Support Scale, and Problem Behaviors Scale. Measures of health for the care giver were: Activities of Daily Living, Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, health perceptions, Psychological Distress Scale, life satisfaction, Social Support Scale, and Caregiver Burden Scale. We also assessed patient and care giver satisfaction with the care received by the patient. Measures of health status and outcomes were assessed primarily through patient and care giver interview at study enrollment, 6 months, and 12 months. Utilization and cost both within and outside VA were assessed for hospital, ambulatory care, nursing home, ADHC, home care, pharmacy, laboratory, and other forms of health care. Sources of utilization data included VA's computerized patient database, VA medical records, patient questionnaires, care giver questionnaires, and health care providers outside VA. Costs were obtained from VA's cost accounting system, VA Central Office, VA's contracts with outside providers, and directly from outside providers. Utilization and cost were assessed for each patient for a period of 1 year after entry into the study.

Adult day health care organizational and program characteristics.

A survey of 31 adult day health care (ADHC) programs assessed the extent to which the programs were implemented as intended by the VA. The study described and compared the host communities, ADHC organizational characteristics, program characteristics, and patient use of services. Four of the centers were operated by the Department of Veterans Affairs in VA Medical Center facilities. The remaining 27 centers were community providers serving veterans on contract through four additional VA Medical Centers. Veterans Administration programs were located in larger facilities, with lower client/staff ratios and fewer hours of operation than community contract programs. Patients on the average made 45 visits to the VA-ADHC programs and 58 visits to the contract ADHC programs. The VA and contract programs were generally found to have been implemented as planned, i.e., they followed VA guidelines for staffing, space, and equipment.

Overview and patient recruitment in the Adult Day Health Care Evaluation Study.

Although Adult Day Health Care (ADHC) is increasingly prominent in the continuum of long-term care services, the results from previous studies of the effects of ADHC are mixed. The objectives of the ADHC Evaluation Study were to determine the effect of ADHC on health status, utilization, and cost of care. The first phase was a randomized controlled trial evaluating ADHC provided directly by the VA. Patients at four medical centers (n = 826) were randomly assigned to receive either ADHC or customary care, and outcomes were compared for the two groups. The second phase was a prospective cohort study evaluating ADHC provided under contract to community agencies in which patients at four additional medical centers (n = 163) were assigned to contract ADHC programs. Outcomes were compared with those of similar patients in the randomized trial. Patients and care givers were assessed at intake and 6 and 12 months after intake. To be admitted to the study, patients must have met one of the following criteria: residence in a nursing home; dependence in ambulation, dressing, or toileting; bowel incontinence; or significant cognitive impairment. Patients at intake demonstrated major impairment in function and high levels of prior use of health care services.

Cost of VA adult day health care programs and their effect on utilization and cost of care.

The VA-ADHC Evaluation included a detailed assessment of the cost of the VA-ADHC programs and an evaluation of their effect on patients' utilization and costs of other health care services. Although each VA-ADHC program had little variation in its program costs over the 3 years of the study, there were large variations between the programs in total costs, their costs per patient day, and in some cost components. The 3 most important factors in determining the level of program costs were: the way patients were transported to and from ADHC, the availability of space to house the program, and the staff-to-patient ratio. The total cost of health care for patients randomly assigned to VA-ADHC was significantly (15.5%) higher than those assigned to customary care. Although ADHC care did substitute for certain other forms of care (i.e., home care and clinic visits), there was not enough of a substitution effect to offset the additional costs of ADHC services.

Effects of adult day health care on utilization and cost of care for subgroups of patients.

An important goal of the Adult Day Health Care (ADHC) Evaluation Study was to identify subgroups of patients assigned to ADHC for whom the health care costs were less than, or not higher than, the costs of similar patients assigned to customary care. Patients eligible for VA services because of a severe disability that occurred during military service had significantly lower costs when assigned to ADHC compared with customary care. For several types of patients, total health care costs were not significantly higher for those assigned to ADHC compared with those assigned to customary care: patients who at study intake 1) were at highest risk of going to a nursing home, 2) had high levels of physical dysfunction as measured by the Sickness Impact Profile, 3) had multiple behavior problems, and 4) were eligible for VA services because of a less severe service-connected disability but admitted to the ADHC for treatment of that disability. Two types of patients were found to have particularly high costs when assigned to ADHC compared with customary care: patients with low levels of physical dysfunction and patients with few behavior problems. Significant differences in the relative costs of ADHC versus customary care also were found between the 4 study sites.