Using Nonpolio Enterovirus Detection to Assess the Integrity of Stool Specimens Collected From Acute Flaccid Paralysis Cases in Somalia During 2014-2017.

BACKGROUND: Despite insecurity challenges in Somalia, key indicators for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance have met recommended targets. However, recent outbreaks of vaccine-derived polioviruses have raised concerns about possible gaps. We analyzed nonpolio enterovirus (NPEV) and Sabin poliovirus isolation rates to investigate whether comparing these rates can inform about the integrity of stool specimens from inaccessible areas and the likelihood of detecting circulating polioviruses. METHODS: Using logistic regression, we analyzed case-based AFP surveillance data for 1348 cases with onset during 2014-2017. We assessed the adjusted impacts of variables including age, accessibility, and Sabin-like virus isolation on NPEV detection. RESULTS: NPEVs were more likely to be isolated from AFP case patients reported from inaccessible areas than accessible areas (23% vs 15%; P = .01). In a multivariable model, inaccessibility and detection of Sabin-like virus were positively associated with NPEV detection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-2.65; and AOR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.07-2.90; respectively), while being aged ≥5 years was negatively associated (AOR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.20-0.85). CONCLUSIONS: Rates of NPEV and Sabin poliovirus detection in inaccessible areas suggest that the integrity of fecal specimens tested for AFP surveillance in Somalia can generate useful AFP data, but uncertainties remain about surveillance system quality.

Assessment of in-country capacity to maintain communicable disease surveillance and response services after polio eradication-Somalia.

One objective of the 2013-2018 Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) Strategic Plan was the transition of GPEI polio essential functions to other public health programs [1]. For many developing countries, in addition to polio essential functions, GPEI funding has been supporting integrated communicable disease surveillance and routine immunization programs. As GPEI progresses toward polio eradication, GPEI funding for some polio-free countries is being scaled back. The Somalia Polio Eradication Program, led by international organizations in collaboration with local authorities, is a critical source of immunizations for >2.5 million children. In addition, the polio program has been supporting a range of communicable disease surveillance, basic health services (e.g. routine immunizations) as well as emergency response activities (e.g. outbreak response). To assess current capacities in Somalia, interviews were conducted with representatives of relief organizations and ministries of health (MoHs) from Somaliland, Puntland, and South-Central political zones to elicit their opinions on their agency's capacity to assume public health activities currently supported by GPEI funds. Seventy percent of international and 62% of representatives of domestic relief agencies reported low capacity to conduct communicable disease surveillance without GPEI funds. Responses from MoH representatives for the three zones in Somalia ranged from "very weak" to "strong" regarding capacity to conduct both polio and non-polio related communicable disease surveillance and outbreak response activities. Zones programs are unprepared to provide communicable diseases services if GPEI funding were substantially reduced abruptly. Polio transition planning must strategically plan for shifting of GPEI staffing, operational assets and funding to support identified gaps in Somalia's public health infrastructure.

Development of a District-Level Programmatic Assessment Tool for Risk of Measles Virus Transmission.

All six World Health Organization (WHO) regions have now set goals for measles elimination by or before 2020. To prioritize measles elimination efforts and use available resources efficiently, there is a need to identify at-risk areas that are offtrack from meeting performance targets and require strengthening of programmatic efforts. This article describes the development of a WHO measles programmatic risk assessment tool to be used for monitoring, guiding, and sustaining measles elimination efforts at the subnational level. We outline the tool development process; the tool specifications and requirements for data inputs; the framework of risk categories, indicators, and scoring; and the risk category assignment. Overall risk was assessed as a function of indicator scores that fall into four main categories: population immunity, surveillance quality, program performance, and threat assessment. On the basis of the overall score, the tool assigns each district a risk of either low, medium, high, or very high. The cut-off criteria for the risk assignment categories were based on the distribution of scores from all possible combinations of individual indicator cutoffs. The results may be used for advocacy to communicate risk to policymakers, mobilize resources for corrective actions, manage population immunity, and prioritize programmatic activities. Ongoing evaluation of indicators will be needed to evaluate programmatic performance and plan risk mitigation activities effectively. The availability of a comprehensive tool that can identify at-risk districts will enhance efforts to prioritize resources and implement strategies for achieving the Global Vaccine Action Plan goals for measles elimination.